Hungary.

• CONDITIONAL GO: validate one company-controlled Budaörs–Törökbálint–Érd technical hub serving Budapest metro.
• Hungary ended 2025 with 94,009 BEV passenger cars and 12,668 still-green-plated PHEVs [eafo_2025]. The latter is not the full PHEV fleet after the 2024 plate-rule change.
• Used imports are the clearest independent-aftermarket signal; they represented 1,557 of 2,712 March 2025 BEV passenger additions [eafo_march25].

Approve a 90-day paid validation, conditional Budapest-West site option and six-family VIN test. Defer franchise sales, pack opening, unsupported coding and official-inspection claims.

It comprises 94,009 BEV passenger cars plus 12,668 5P vehicles still carrying green plates at end-2025 [eafo_2025]. Because new PHEVs stopped receiving green plates on 1 September 2024, the sum is a lower bound—not the full active PHEV fleet [portfolio_plate].

5E is the clean BEV series. 5P and 5N green-plate counts became administratively stale when eligibility ended for new registrations. New sales, used imports and current stock remain separate measures.

The 5E fleet rose from 70,386 at end-2024 to 101,534 at end-2025; passenger BEVs reached 94,009 [eafo_2025]. January 2026 added a further 2,342 BEVs, taking passenger BEVs to 96,104 [portfolio_jan26].

Hungary registered 11,002 new BEV passenger cars in 2025, 28% more than 2024, raising share from 7.0% to 8.5% [eafo_2025]. March additions were 1,155 new and 1,557 used passenger BEVs [eafo_march25].

Cautious, base and high cases apply 16%, 24% and 32% annual growth for five years from the sourced end-2025 BEV stock. They are capacity scenarios, not official forecasts.

Hungary had 5,083 public points at Q4 2025, including 1,503 DC points. DC count rose 49.6% year on year while the total network grew 21.7% [eafo_2025]. Points measure infrastructure, not workshops or vehicles.

More than half of March 2025 BEV passenger additions were used imports [eafo_march25]. Battery health, provenance, charging, thermal and chassis evidence can therefore lead while many new vehicles remain in OEM warranty.

The pilot must confirm its exact Hungarian activity, professional-qualification, site, fire, lifting, occupational and environmental obligations. It must not imply official roadworthiness authority without separate approval [hungary_company].

106,677 minimum evidenced plug-in cars × 55% annual incidence × HUF280,000 gives HUF16.43bn TAM. Applying 38% independent eligibility gives HUF6.24bn. A 48% Budapest-metro reach proxy gives HUF3.00bn SAM. Base SOM is 2,100 orders × HUF480,000 = HUF1.008bn.

It excludes non-green-plated PHEVs, motorcycles, buses, charging revenue, body repair, full-pack replacement, official inspection and franchise fees. A live register extract must replace this lower bound before capex.

Prioritise dealers/importers/lenders, leasing/rental/delivery fleets, insurers/bodyshops/recovery and out-of-warranty owners. Public fleets are secondary procurement-led demand.

Model Y, EV3, Model 3 and iX1 led 2025 registrations; BYD placed several models in the top group [eafo_2025]. Every advertised function requires paid VIN-level proof.

Tesla direct service, Porsche Hungaria, AutoWallis/Wallis and the expanding BYD network control warranty and platform access. Bosch and local independents add multi-brand pressure. EVS must win with evidence, fleet SLA and strict governance.

Budaörs–Törökbálint–Érd combines the country’s largest metro, affluent catchment and M0/M1/M7 access. Central Hungary had 3.02 million residents at January 2025 [ksh_regions]. Győr and Debrecen are later spokes; Szeged is an ecosystem watchpoint.

The time-limited company programme offered HUF2.8m–4m per vehicle [gov_subsidy25]. PHEVs lost new green-plate eligibility in September 2024 and existing 5P/5N plates must be replaced by 30 November 2026 [portfolio_plate]. Parking is municipal and changing.

Use 9% corporate income tax and 27% standard VAT as planning inputs, subject to Hungarian advice [pwc_tax] [pwc_vat]. HIPA and EU support is project-specific; the base case assumes no award.

Obtain written advice on corporate tax, local business tax, VAT, payroll/social contributions, royalties, transfer pricing, imported parts/tools and cross-border franchise fees before contracting.

Eurostat estimated Hungary’s 2025 whole-economy hourly labour cost at €15.2 [eurostat_labour]. EV-capable diagnostic and HV leads are scarcer; use role-based authorisation, recurrent assessment and retention pay.

Confirm entity/branch, TEÁOR activity, responsible technical competence, premises use, fire, lifting equipment, occupational safety, waste, F-gas and any electrical-work scope before lease commitment.

Define regulated competence for each task, then overlay model-specific isolation, prove-dead, LOTO, PPE, rescue and supervision. Limit energised diagnosis and audit the system independently [labour].

Segregate normal, suspect, post-impact, flooded and unstable packs; monitor quarantine; record custody; and contract authorised transport/treatment. EU battery rules do not replace Hungarian waste and fire duties [eu_battery] [gov_waste].

Confirm refrigerant, recovery, leak-control and technician/company certification requirements under EU and Hungarian F-gas rules [eu_fgas].

Use Hungarian-language quotations and terms, transparent diagnostic limits, approval before extra work, documented battery-health methodology, complaints handling and GDPR controls [consumer] [data_auth].

No dedicated Hungarian franchise registration was identified. General civil, competition, IP, consumer, labour and tax rules apply; confirm pre-contract disclosure and cross-border structure locally [gvh].

Battery certificates, charging/HVAC diagnosis, tyres/chassis/brakes, fleet maintenance and mobile triage should precede post-impact work. Pack opening and unsupported coding stay on hold.

Centralise QA, data and training; use lawful repair-information access; contract parts, towing, insurer and waste partners; and add Győr or Debrecen coverage only after Budapest utilisation is proven.

The base produces HUF1.008bn revenue, HUF554.4m gross profit and HUF34.4m EBITDA. Replace rent, wages, insurance, parts, tax and central allocations with binding local quotes.

Expansion depends on a live active-fleet extract, lawful tool access, paid used-EV/fleet demand and audited safety controls—not green-plate totals or battery-factory investment.

Close the live denominator and law/site issues in days 0–30, run paid multi-platform jobs in days 31–60, then secure anchor demand and binding operating quotes in days 61–90.

No capex or franchise rollout unless denominator, demand, paid evidence, technical, safety/compliance, economics and network gates all pass.

How many active PHEVs no longer carry green plates? What share of the 106,677 minimum pool is out of warranty and Budapest-addressable? Which fleets and importers will contract? Which functions and parts are lawful and accessible by VIN?

EAFO and Ministry-register evidence control BEV sales, stock and charging. KSH, EU institutions, authorities and named market participants provide complementary context. Administrative-category breaks are disclosed; sourced facts, EVS calculations and assumptions remain separate.

The 12,668 PHEV count covers 5P green plates, not all active PHEVs. No current official postcode/age/model extract was available in the public sources reviewed. Workshop quotes, legal scope, tool access and contracted demand remain entry gates.

The register records publisher, publication/access date, URL and use. Government/statistical facts, EU rules, competitor evidence and EVS assumptions remain distinguishable.

CONDITIONAL GO for a 90-day paid validation and one company-controlled Budaörs–Törökbálint–Érd hub option. NO-GO for immediate franchising, pack rebuilding or official-inspection claims.