Romania

Approve a 90-day paid validation, conditional Bucharest North-West site option and six-family VIN test. Defer franchise sales, pack opening, unsupported coding and official-inspection claims.

LEKTRI derived the April 2026 estimate after registrations and deregistrations [lektri_apr26]. EVS treats it as the best current service-pool proxy but requires a DGPCI/RAR extract before capex. PHEV stock is not imputed.

The active BEV estimate is a stock proxy. BEV/PHEV registrations are annual flows. Charging points are connectors, not sites or vehicles. Each remains separate throughout the model.

April added 1,259 net EVs after 49 deregistrations; May added a further net 1,401 [lektri_apr26] [lektri_may26]. The resulting 69,855 May bridge is an EVS arithmetic update, not an official fleet statistic.

BEV registrations fell 9% to 8,833 in 2025 while PHEVs rose 59% to 10,079 [eafo_2025]. H1 2026 BEVs rose 76.6% and PHEVs 72.6% year on year, but APIA warned that stock clearing affected the comparison [apia_h1_26].

Cautious, base and high cases apply 14%, 22% and 30% annual growth for 4.67 years from April 2026. They are capacity scenarios, not official forecasts.

Romania ended 2025 with 7,112 public points, up from 4,566 at end-2024; DC points rose from 1,906 to 3,536 [eafo_2025]. Point counts do not measure workshop capacity.

Romania had about 8.44 million passenger cars in 2024, averaging 15.6 years; nearly seven million were older than ten [acea_parc]. The BEV cohort is younger, so fleet, used-EV, tyre/chassis and incident services should lead.

RAR authorises repair and maintenance operators by scope and expressly lists hybrid and electric motor categories [rar_authorisation]. Repair authority does not itself confer official ITP authority.

68,454 estimated active BEVs × 60% annual incidence × RON3,800 gives RON156.1m TAM. Applying 45% independent eligibility gives RON70.2m; a 50% Bucharest-metro reach proxy gives RON35.1m SAM. Base SOM is 2,800 orders × RON4,200 = RON11.76m.

PHEVs, motorcycles, buses, charging revenue, body repair, full-pack replacement, official inspection and franchise fees are excluded. A live active-stock extract must replace the estimate before investment.

Prioritise dealers/importers/lenders, leasing/rental/delivery fleets, insurers/bodyshops/recovery and out-of-warranty owners. Public fleets are secondary procurement-led demand.

Dacia and Tesla represented about 27.35% and 17.75% of LEKTRI’s April active estimate [lektri_apr26]. BYD’s recent model momentum makes it a fast-follow platform, but every function needs VIN-level proof.

RAR’s directory lists 12,900 authorised workshops and 3,050 ITP units [rar_directory]. OEM networks control warranty and platform access; EVS must win on evidence quality, fleet SLA, multi-brand diagnostics and safety governance.

Otopeni–Chitila–Mogoșoaia combines the largest affluent and fleet catchment with DN1/A0 access and industrial premises. Bucharest West is the alternative; Cluj and Timișoara are later spokes.

The RON300m programme offers RON18,500 for BEV/FCEV and RON15,000 for PHEV, with RON120m earmarked for plug-in/electric/hydrogen vehicles [rabla26]. EVS must not size service demand from subsidy-month sales.

Use 16% standard corporate income tax and 21% standard VAT as planning inputs, subject to Romanian advice [pwc_tax] [pwc_vat]. Investment aid is project-specific; the base case assumes no award.

Obtain written advice on CIT/minimum turnover tax, VAT, payroll, withholding, royalties, transfer pricing, imported parts/tools and cross-border franchise fees before contracting.

Eurostat estimated Romania’s 2025 whole-economy hourly labour cost at €13.6 [eurostat_labour]. Workshop diagnostic/HV leads are a narrower market; use role-based authorisation, recurring assessment and retention pay.

Confirm entity/CAEN, RAR categories, responsible technical competence, premises use, fire, ISCIR lifting equipment, occupational safety, waste and F-gas before lease commitment.

Define regulated competence for every task, then overlay model-specific isolation, prove-dead, LOTO, PPE, rescue and supervision. Restrict energised diagnosis and audit the system independently [labour].

Segregate normal, suspect, post-impact, flooded and unstable packs; monitor quarantine; record custody; and contract authorised transport/treatment. EU battery rules do not replace Romanian waste and fire duties [eu_battery] [environment_guard].

Confirm refrigerant, recovery, leak-control and technician/company certification requirements under EU and Romanian F-gas rules [eu_fgas].

Use Romanian-language quotations and terms, transparent diagnostic limits, approval before extra work, documented battery-health methodology, complaints handling and GDPR controls [consumer] [data_auth].

Romanian franchise, civil, competition, IP, consumer, labour and tax requirements require local review. Do not sell franchises before a controlled hub has one audited operating year [competition].

Battery certificates, charging/HVAC diagnosis, tyres/chassis/brakes, fleet maintenance and mobile triage should precede post-impact work. Pack opening and unsupported coding stay on hold.

Centralise QA, data and training; use lawful repair-information access; contract parts, towing, insurer and waste partners; add Cluj or Timișoara only after Bucharest utilisation is proven.

The base produces RON11.76m revenue, RON6.468m gross profit and RON268,000 EBITDA. Replace rent, wages, insurance, parts, tax and central allocations with binding local quotes.

Expansion depends on a live active-fleet extract, lawful tool access, paid used-EV/fleet demand and audited safety controls—not registration spikes or manufacturing headlines.

Close the active denominator and RAR/site issues in days 0–30, run paid multi-platform jobs in days 31–60, then secure anchor demand and binding operating quotes in days 61–90.

No capex or franchise rollout unless denominator, demand, paid evidence, technical, safety/compliance, economics and network gates all pass.

How many active BEVs and PHEVs sit by age, model and postcode? What share is out of warranty and Bucharest-addressable? Which fleets/importers will contract? Which functions and parts are lawful and accessible by VIN?

LEKTRI supplies the current active-BEV estimate; EAFO and APIA/DGPCI evidence registrations and charging. Authorities, EU institutions and named participants provide regulatory and market context. Sourced facts, EVS calculations and assumptions remain separate.

The 68,454 count is a third-party active-fleet estimate, not an official census. No current public PHEV stock or postcode/age/model extract was located. Workshop quotes, legal scope, tool access and contracted demand remain entry gates.

The register records publisher, publication/access date, URL and use. Government/statistical facts, EU rules, competitor evidence and EVS assumptions remain distinguishable.

CONDITIONAL GO for a 90-day paid validation and one company-controlled Bucharest North-West hub option. NO-GO for immediate franchising, pack rebuilding or official-inspection claims.