Belarus.

• Conditional go only for a sanctions-cleared, locally operated Minsk partner pilot. Belstat reports 44,700 private passenger electric vehicles at end-2025. [belstat_2025]
• Definition control matters. From 2026 incentive rules exclude hybrids, while historical registration/type treatment may include some EREVs; EVS applies a 10% eligibility haircut pending VIN audit. [tax_decree_detail]
• The model yields 45,339 national TAM and 8,379 Minsk SAM jobs annually. These are EVS assumptions, not official demand.
• No franchise licence, standalone lease, pack work or cross-border procurement until sanctions, banking, tools, approvals and paid-demand gates clear.

Authorise diligence and up to BYN80,000 reversible partner-pilot capex only after every hard gate clears. Base steady-state economics are 600 jobs, BYN228,000 revenue, BYN29,360 EBITDA and 2.72-year payback; all are EVS assumptions.

Belstat reports 44,700 private passenger electric vehicles at end-2025, up from 20,700 one year earlier. This is the cleanest auditable stock anchor; all-class media signals, sales and import quotas remain separate. [belstat_2025]

“Electric vehicle” is not one stable denominator. The 2026 incentive definition is pure-electric M/MG/N/NG and excludes hybrids, while historical registration/type practice may treat some series hybrids differently. The model therefore uses a conservative eligibility haircut and requires VIN-level powertrain proof. [tax_decree_detail]

EVS applies 10%, 20% and 35% annual growth for five years from the 44,700 end-2025 anchor. The reported 300,000 government ambition is context, not an input. [target_2030]

The official-source aggregate is 2,026 charging stations/devices/columns at end-2025. Malanka objects, Evika stations and planned builds use different grains and are not summed. [charging_total] [malanka_network] [evika]

The personal EV fleet more than doubled in 2025 and new EVs reached 23% of 2025 new-car sales. The young, Chinese-brand-heavy fleet favours diagnostics, charging/thermal faults, tyres, chassis and pre-purchase evidence before age-driven pack work. [belstat_2025] [baa_2025]

Sourced stock is separated from EVS assumptions. SOM is deliberately zero before sanctions, banking, compliance, capability and demand gates.

Prioritise out-of-warranty BEVs, Chinese-brand owners, used-import buyers and sanctions-cleared private fleets. Route EREVs/PHEVs separately and exclude public/state counterparties at launch.

Chinese brands dominate recent sales and the technical long tail is expanding quickly. Brand or model names alone do not prove powertrain, tool access or warranty scope. [models_2025] [may_2026_sales]

Authorised networks hold warranty, parts and secure-tool advantages; local EV specialists hold price and platform familiarity. EVS should compete on controlled multi-brand scope, evidence and fleet uptime.

Minsk is the only fixed-site pilot candidate: it held 46.2% of private passenger EVs in 2024. Other oblast centres remain collection/clinic markets until Minsk proof. [regional_2024]

Pure-EV VAT and tariff relief are meaningful but vehicle-, date-, category-, quota- and transaction-specific. They are not service-centre grants and are not embedded in EVS revenue.

Economics are VAT-exclusive and pre-tax. Written advice must cover local entity, profit/VAT/payroll, franchise or service fees, customs, sanctions and repatriation before commitment.

A workshop must close entity, activity, premises, fire, electrical, OSH, vehicle-repair, waste, insurer, privacy, sanctions and OEM-tool gates. No single generic “garage licence” is assumed.

Vehicle HV systems require task-based competence beyond ordinary facility electrical approval. Launch uses VIN whitelists, verified de-energisation, controlled zones, rescue drills and auditable release records.

Phase 1 excludes pack opening, removal, storage and damaged-battery custody. Belarus waste classification, fire acceptance, insurer approval, sanctions/export controls, ADR/Basel and destination acceptance must all align before later scope.

Lead with non-invasive diagnostic and condition evidence, charging/thermal/12V work, tyres, brakes, suspension and fleet uptime. Market only supported VIN/task combinations.

Use a locally operated, sanctions-cleared partner format. No exclusivity, cross-border licence fee, state-linked customer or standalone lease until counsel, banks and performance evidence support it.

The model uses reversible partner-bay capex. Revenue, margin, opex and payback are EVS assumptions requiring supplier quotes and paid-job validation.

Sanctions, export controls, banking, FX/repatriation and tool access are feasibility risks, not footnotes. Safety, demand and data risks remain material.

Diligence precedes demand proof; demand proof precedes capability spend; supervised dry runs precede paid launch.

Any sanctions, banking, approval, insurer, tool-access or battery-route failure is a stop condition. The board should not trade legal certainty for market speed.

Facts, assumptions and calculations are separated. Conflicting definitions and source grains are reconciled rather than averaged.

51 linked sources record publisher, date, access date and scope. Primary and authoritative sources control; commercial sources provide labelled market-presence signals only.

CONDITIONAL GO for a sanctions-cleared Minsk partner pilot after all hard gates. NO-GO for standalone/franchise rollout and HOLD for pack work or cross-border flows until written clearance and operating proof.