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Belarus

EVS Belarus EV Service Centre Market Entry

Decision-grade Belarus assessment separating personal passenger electric stock, possible historical series-hybrid classification, dealer sales, import quotas, charging devices and networks, with an auditable Minsk serviceable-pool model and sanctions/compliance gates.

Snapshot: 11 August 202631-page full report
Talk to the expansion team
All-road electric stock
44,700

Private passenger electric stock at end-2025; historical powertrain classification requires VIN audit.

Stations
2,026

Official-source charging devices/columns at end-2025; not live audited sites/connectors.

Jobs/year
8,379

Modelled Minsk independent-reach jobs/year; not booked demand.

Years
2.725

Base simple payback on BYN80,000 reversible capex; pre-tax, pre-finance.

Executive summary

The verdict in full

  • Conditional go only for a sanctions-cleared, locally operated Minsk partner pilot. Belstat reports 44,700 private passenger electric vehicles at end-2025. [belstat_2025]
  • Definition control matters. From 2026 incentive rules exclude hybrids, while historical registration/type treatment may include some EREVs; EVS applies a 10% eligibility haircut pending VIN audit. [tax_decree_detail]
  • The model yields 45,339 national TAM and 8,379 Minsk SAM jobs annually. These are EVS assumptions, not official demand.
  • No franchise licence, standalone lease, pack work or cross-border procurement until sanctions, banking, tools, approvals and paid-demand gates clear.

Board Decision

Authorise diligence and up to BYN80,000 reversible partner-pilot capex only after every hard gate clears. Base steady-state economics are 600 jobs, BYN228,000 revenue, BYN29,360 EBITDA and 2.72-year payback; all are EVS assumptions.

Decision Summary

Market entry
Decision
CONDITIONAL GO — sanctions-cleared Minsk partner pilot
Reason
Large, fast-growing electric stock supports testing, but legal/banking/tool access controls precede any spend.
Standalone centre / area franchise
Decision
NO-GO now
Reason
Sanctions exposure, bankability, supported VINs and independent paid demand remain unproven.
Traction-battery work
Decision
HOLD
Reason
No pack opening, removal, module/cell work, storage or damaged-battery custody before written approvals and lawful chain.
Cross-border procurement/data
Decision
HOLD until screened
Reason
Export controls, sanctions, OEM subscriptions, payments, hosting and counterparties require jurisdiction-specific counsel.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Market size

Belstat reports 44,700 private passenger electric vehicles at end-2025, up from 20,700 one year earlier. This is the cleanest auditable stock anchor; all-class media signals, sales and import quotas remain separate. [belstat_2025]

Belarus private passenger electric observations

Stocks and sales are kept separate; later media signals remain directional.

6,413
20,745
17,200
44,700
59,692
End-2023
End-2024
2025 new sales
End-2025
Jun-2026 signal

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Market KPIs

Private passenger vehicles
Value
3,190,000
Unit
vehicles, minimum
Period
End-2025
Evidence
More than 3.19m [belstat_2025]
Private passenger electric vehicles
Value
44,700
Unit
vehicles
Period
End-2025
Evidence
Administrative stock anchor [belstat_2025]
Private passenger electric vehicles
Value
20,745
Unit
vehicles
Period
End-2024
Evidence
Exact Belstat-derived observation [regional_2024]
New electric-vehicle sales
Value
17,200
Unit
vehicles
Period
2025
Evidence
23% of new market; flow [baa_2025]
New hybrid sales
Value
8,100
Unit
vehicles
Period
2025
Evidence
10.9%; kept separate [baa_2025]
Charging devices/columns
Value
2,026
Unit
devices
Period
End-2025
Evidence
Not sites/connectors/uptime [charging_total]
2026 EAEU duty-free quota
Value
20,000
Unit
pure EVs maximum
Period
2026
Evidence
Code 8703 80 000 3; not stock [eec_quota_2026]

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Definition-sensitive Belarus electric observations

End-2023
BEV
6,413
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
6,413
Scope
Private passenger electric vehicles [regional_2024].
End-2024
BEV
20,745
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
20,745
Scope
Private passenger electric vehicles [regional_2024].
2025 new sales
BEV
17,200
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
17,200
Scope
New electric-vehicle sales; hybrids separately 8,100 [baa_2025].
End-2025
BEV
—
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
44,700
Scope
Private passenger electric stock; historical classification caveat [belstat_2025].
Jun-2026 signal
BEV
—
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
59,692
Scope
Directional media observation; not substituted [june_2026_stock].

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Definition reconciliation

“Electric vehicle” is not one stable denominator. The 2026 incentive definition is pure-electric M/MG/N/NG and excludes hybrids, while historical registration/type practice may treat some series hybrids differently. The model therefore uses a conservative eligibility haircut and requires VIN-level powertrain proof. [tax_decree_detail]

Definition reconciliation

Private passenger electric stock
Included
Core anchor
Use
44,700 at end-2025; accessible release does not provide VIN/powertrain split.
Pure electric under 2026 Decree 428
Included
Eligibility control
Use
Exclusively electric motor; hybrids expressly excluded from incentive definition.
Series hybrid / EREV
Included
Excluded from model via 10% haircut until VIN audit
Use
Some models may have historical electric classification; separate ICE/HV scope.
Dealer sales/imports/quota
Included
Adoption signal only
Use
Flows or ceilings; never added to stock.
Charging station/device/object
Included
Infrastructure context
Use
Different source grains are not summed or treated as live audited connectors.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Forecast scenarios

EVS applies 10%, 20% and 35% annual growth for five years from the 44,700 end-2025 anchor. The reported 300,000 government ambition is context, not an input. [target_2030]

EVS private passenger electric scenarios to end-2030

10% / 20% / 35% CAGR for five years from 44,700; not official forecasts.

Cautious71,990
Base111,228
HighBase case200,436

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Five-year private passenger EV planning scenarios

Cautious
Annual Growth Pct
10
Planning stock end-2030
71,990
Interpretation
Quota/tax normalization, sanctions, affordability and service friction; EVS scenario.
Base
Annual Growth Pct
20
Planning stock end-2030
111,228
Interpretation
Continued Chinese supply and local assembly with moderated growth; EVS scenario.
High
Annual Growth Pct
35
Planning stock end-2030
200,436
Interpretation
Sustained price compression, quota access and charging rollout; upside stress case.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Get the full Belarus analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Charging infrastructure

The official-source aggregate is 2,026 charging stations/devices/columns at end-2025. Malanka objects, Evika stations and planned builds use different grains and are not summed. [charging_total] [malanka_network] [evika]

Charging infrastructure measures

Devices, operator objects, historical stations and pipeline are different grains.

2,026
975
400
200
450
0
National charging stations/devices/columns
Malanka objects
Other legal-entity stations
Evika stations
Malanka 2026 build plan
EVS field-audited locations

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Charging evidence and unknowns

National charging stations/devices/columns
Value
2,026
Unit
devices
Period
End-2025
Status
Official-source aggregate; power, access, connector and uptime not published [charging_total].
Malanka objects
Value
975
Unit
objects
Period
1 Jan 2026
Status
Operator network; do not reconcile by addition to national device count [malanka_network].
Other legal-entity stations
Value
400
Unit
minimum
Period
1 Jan 2026
Status
Operator statement; mixed slow/fast/superfast [malanka_network].
Evika stations
Value
200
Unit
stations
Period
End-2024
Status
Historical operator count; 87 Minsk/Minsk Region [evika].
Malanka 2026 build plan
Value
450
Unit
stations, approximate
Period
2026
Status
450–500 announced; exclude until commissioned [malanka_network].
EVS field-audited locations
Value
0
Unit
locations
Period
Pre-entry
Status
Connector, power, payment and uptime audit not completed.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Vehicle parc age and service demand

The personal EV fleet more than doubled in 2025 and new EVs reached 23% of 2025 new-car sales. The young, Chinese-brand-heavy fleet favours diagnostics, charging/thermal faults, tyres, chassis and pre-purchase evidence before age-driven pack work. [belstat_2025] [baa_2025]

Vehicle parc and service demand

Private passenger wider parc
Value
3,190,000
Unit
vehicles, minimum
Implication
Large chassis/HVAC pool; not electric stock [belstat_2025].
Electric share of private passenger parc
Value
1.401
Unit
percent
Implication
About 1.40% using minimum wider parc; cross-source context.
Minsk share of private passenger EVs
Value
46.199
Unit
percent
Implication
46.2% in 2024; used as current concentration proxy [regional_2024].
2025 new-EV share
Value
23
Unit
percent
Implication
Young incoming fleet favours diagnostics, tyres, charging and evidence [baa_2025].
Official EV average age
Value
—
Unit
years
Implication
Unavailable; obtain VIN/year/mileage/warranty extract.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM

Sourced stock is separated from EVS assumptions. SOM is deliberately zero before sanctions, banking, compliance, capability and demand gates.

Belarus TAM / Minsk SAM service pool

Sourced stock plus explicit EVS eligibility, activity, geography and reach assumptions.

45,339
20,946
8,379
0
TAM
Minsk core
SAM
Current executable SOM

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Sizing assumptions

Private passenger electric stock
Value
44,700
Unit
vehicles
Basis
Sourced [belstat_2025].
Pure-BEV / supported eligibility
Value
90
Unit
percent
Basis
EVS conservative assumption pending VIN/powertrain split.
Active factor
Value
98
Unit
percent
Basis
EVS assumption.
Annual service events
Value
1.15
Unit
events/vehicle
Basis
EVS launch-scope assumption.
Average repair order
Value
380
Unit
BYN/job
Basis
EVS VAT-exclusive assumption.
Minsk concentration
Value
46.199
Unit
percent
Basis
9,584 / 20,745 private EVs at end-2024 [regional_2024].
Independent reach
Value
40
Unit
percent
Basis
EVS assumption after OEM, warranty, sanctions and unsupported exclusions.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

TAM / SAM / SOM

TAM
Vehicles
39,425
Jobs Per Year
45,339
Revenue ALL
17,228,820
Status
Modelled active/powertrain-eligible private passenger electric pool nationally.
Minsk core
Vehicles
18,214
Jobs Per Year
20,946
Revenue ALL
7,959,480
Status
2024 EV-specific geographic-share proxy before independent reach.
SAM
Vehicles
7,286
Jobs Per Year
8,379
Revenue ALL
3,184,020
Status
40% independent-reach assumption within Minsk core.
1 more row in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Customers and fleets

Prioritise out-of-warranty BEVs, Chinese-brand owners, used-import buyers and sanctions-cleared private fleets. Route EREVs/PHEVs separately and exclude public/state counterparties at launch.

Customer segments

Out-of-warranty BEV owners
Need
Diagnostics, battery-health evidence, charging, thermal and 12V faults
Priority
Highest after VIN/tool verification.
Chinese-brand owners
Need
Lawful software/tool access, parts navigation and evidence
Priority
High; top-20 supported VINs only.
Used-import buyers
Need
Pre-purchase scan, battery/charging evidence and condition triage
Priority
High; no capacity/value guarantee.
Series-hybrid/EREV owners
Need
Generator/emissions/electric-drive diagnosis
Priority
Separate whitelist; not routed as BEV-only.
Warranty customers
Need
Authorised repairs and campaigns
Priority
Refer unless written OEM overflow agreement.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Fleet segments

Taxi/ride-hail
Entry Product
Scheduled scans, tyres/brakes and rapid triage
Evidence Gate
One paid trial and fleet LOI; no fleet count assumed.
Corporate fleets
Entry Product
Collection, uptime evidence and preventive bundle
Evidence Gate
Sanctions-cleared entity and supported VINs.
Delivery/light commercial
Entry Product
Downtime SLA and chassis/thermal care
Evidence Gate
N-class stock and payload/use audit.
Dealer/importer overflow
Entry Product
PDI evidence and non-warranty overflow
Evidence Gate
Written data, warranty and liability boundary.
Public/state fleets
Entry Product
None at launch
Evidence Gate
Enhanced sanctions/procurement screening; board approval required.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Get the full Belarus analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Brands and models

Chinese brands dominate recent sales and the technical long tail is expanding quickly. Brand or model names alone do not prove powertrain, tool access or warranty scope. [models_2025] [may_2026_sales]

Priority brands — no audited market shares located

BEV
Brand
Dongfeng
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
Box was a leading model; May 2026 sales 1,400 [models_2025] [may_2026_sales].
BEV / PHEV
Brand
BYD
Units
6,610
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
8.8
Source
All-powertrain brand total; do not infer BEV stock [models_2025].
BEV
Brand
Geely
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
EX5 and Galaxy family signal; official network [models_2025] [geely].
BEV / EREV
Brand
Voyah / Deepal / Li Auto
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
Fast-growing Chinese premium/EREV mix; powertrain classification required.
BEV
Brand
Zeekr / FAW Bestune / Tesla and long tail
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
Visible in rankings/imports; exact registered stock unavailable [models_2025].

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Priority models

Dongfeng
Model
Box / Vigo
Powertrain
BEV
Signal
High-volume compact platform; confirm official tool/parts coverage [dongfeng].
BYD
Model
Song Plus / Yuan Up / Dolphin and variants
Powertrain
BEV/PHEV variants
Signal
Model name is insufficient; route by VIN/powertrain [byd].
Geely
Model
EX5 / Galaxy E5
Powertrain
BEV
Signal
Local assembly/network signal; OEM authorization remains separate [geely].
Voyah
Model
Free and family
Powertrain
BEV or series hybrid/EREV
Signal
Separate HV and ICE-generator competence [voyah].
Zeekr / Deepal / Li Auto / Tesla
Model
Multiple
Powertrain
BEV/EREV
Signal
Fast-changing long tail; supported top-20 VIN audit.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Competitive landscape

Authorised networks hold warranty, parts and secure-tool advantages; local EV specialists hold price and platform familiarity. EVS should compete on controlled multi-brand scope, evidence and fleet uptime.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Competitor map

Belgee / Geely authorised network
Type
Manufacturer/importer/dealer
Footprint
Minsk + national
Threat
Warranty, parts, secure diagnostics and local assembly
Response
Non-warranty multi-brand evidence and overflow only.
BYD / Dongfeng / Voyah importers
Type
Brand dealers and service
Footprint
Minsk-led
Threat
Bundled vehicle, financing and service
Response
Partner/referral first; avoid warranty conflict.
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Priority geography

Minsk is the only fixed-site pilot candidate: it held 46.2% of private passenger EVs in 2024. Other oblast centres remain collection/clinic markets until Minsk proof. [regional_2024]

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Priority regions

1
Region
Minsk / Minsk Region
Rationale
46.2% of personal passenger electric vehicles in 2024; 9,584 in Minsk and 4,558 in Minsk Region [regional_2024].
Mode
Two-bay partner pilot plus collection.
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Consumer and business incentives

Pure-EV VAT and tariff relief are meaningful but vehicle-, date-, category-, quota- and transaction-specific. They are not service-centre grants and are not embedded in EVS revenue.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Consumer incentives

2026 EAEU customs-duty quota
Status
20,000 code 8703 80 000 3 pure electric vehicles
Implication
Residency/transfer, quota and customs documentation control; not automatic [eec_quota_2026].
VAT relief through 2028
Status
Qualifying pure EV import/sale relief; hybrids excluded from 2026
Implication
Confirm age, category, transaction and documentation [tax_vat_2028].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Business incentives

100% investment deduction
Status
Qualifying electric vehicles through 2028, subject to Tax Code timing/asset conditions
Action
Relevant to fleet/asset taxpayer, not automatically workshop capex [tax_decree_detail].
Charging infrastructure preferences
Status
Installation/maintenance preferences extended indefinitely; two state operators
Action
Project- and operator-specific; no EVS award assumed [decree_428].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Tax and investment

Economics are VAT-exclusive and pre-tax. Written advice must cover local entity, profit/VAT/payroll, franchise or service fees, customs, sanctions and repatriation before commitment.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Tax and customs baseline

VAT
Rate
20% standard
Treatment
Model excludes VAT; pure-EV vehicle relief does not automatically exempt workshop services [tax_vat_2028] [tax_authority].
Profit tax
Rate
Entity/regime specific
Treatment
Obtain current national and local calculation; model is pre-tax [tax_authority].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Licensing, labour and premises

A workshop must close entity, activity, premises, fire, electrical, OSH, vehicle-repair, waste, insurer, privacy, sanctions and OEM-tool gates. No single generic “garage licence” is assumed.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Licensing path

—
Evidence
EGR extract, activity codes, ownership, tax and cash-register setup [egr] [tax_authority].
Gate
Entity/activity registration
—
Evidence
Named parties, owners, banks, goods, software, hosting and flows cleared in writing [eu_sanctions] [uk_sanctions] [us_sanctions].
Gate
Sanctions/export-control/banking
6 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Labour and safety obligations

Employment/payroll setup
Owner
HR/legal
Control
Written contracts, working time, leave, payroll and inspections [minlabour] [osh_belarus].
Risk assessment and OSH system
Owner
Workshop manager
Control
Electrical, lifting, thermal, chemical, ergonomic, rescue and fire hazards [osh_belarus].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

High-voltage safety

Vehicle HV systems require task-based competence beyond ordinary facility electrical approval. Launch uses VIN whitelists, verified de-energisation, controlled zones, rescue drills and auditable release records.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

High-voltage controls

Powertrain/VIN whitelist
Standard
—
Proof
—
De-energisation
Standard
—
Proof
—
HV zone
Standard
—
Proof
—
Competence matrix
Standard
—
Proof
—
Quarantine triage
Standard
—
Proof
—
Emergency plan
Standard
—
Proof
—
Audit trail
Standard
—
Proof
—

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Battery, waste and dangerous goods

Phase 1 excludes pack opening, removal, storage and damaged-battery custody. Belarus waste classification, fire acceptance, insurer approval, sanctions/export controls, ADR/Basel and destination acceptance must all align before later scope.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Battery and waste routes

—
Route
Non-invasive diagnostics only.
Status
—
—
Route
Remote triage, evacuation and specialist referral.
Status
—
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Franchise and operating model

Use a locally operated, sanctions-cleared partner format. No exclusivity, cross-border licence fee, state-linked customer or standalone lease until counsel, banks and performance evidence support it.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Operating model

Format
Recommendation
Two-bay Minsk partner pilot; no standalone lease.
Why
—
Ownership/contract
Recommendation
Sanctions-cleared local operator; no franchise licence or cross-border fee until counsel/bank approval.
Why
—
Territory
Recommendation
No exclusivity until 12 months of verified demand/compliance.
Why
—
Staffing
Recommendation
One HV lead plus one technician; partner reception/collection.
Why
—
Powertrain routing
Recommendation
Separate pure BEV, PHEV and series-hybrid SOPs.
Why
—
Technology/data
Recommendation
Locally lawful tools/hosting; no blocked subscription, circumvention or uncontrolled export.
Why
—
Commercial
Recommendation
Menu-priced evidence products; fleet SLA after proof.
Why
—

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Pilot economics

The model uses reversible partner-bay capex. Revenue, margin, opex and payback are EVS assumptions requiring supplier quotes and paid-job validation.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Partner-pilot annual scenario revenue

BYN, VAT-exclusive; EVS assumptions.

Cautious-12,330
Base29,360
HighBase case82,500

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Annual partner-pilot economics — BYN

Cautious
Jobs
180
ARO ALL
330
Revenue ALL
59,400
Gross Margin Pct
55
Gross Profit ALL
32,670
Opex ALL
45,000
Ebitda ALL
-12,330
Payback Years
—
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

90-day partner-pilot economics — BYN

Cautious
Jobs 90d
45
Revenue ALL
14,850
Gross Profit ALL
8,167.5
Opex ALL
11,000
Ebitda ALL
-2,832.5
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Risks and mitigations

Sanctions, export controls, banking, FX/repatriation and tool access are feasibility risks, not footnotes. Safety, demand and data risks remain material.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Risks and mitigations

Sanctions/export-control or bank block
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
Named-party/product/software/payment opinions; bank pre-clearance; stop-work triggers.
Powertrain/classification error
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
VIN decode and separate BEV/PHEV/EREV routing before quote.
OEM software/parts access
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Supported top-20 VIN matrix; no circumvention; referral fallback.
Demand below assumptions
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
High
Mitigation
Partner bays, bookings and fleet LOI before capex.
Battery fire / shock
Likelihood
Low
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No pack work, isolation SOP, quarantine refusal and drills.
FX/inflation/repatriation
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Local-currency pilot, short commitments, bank/legal review and no guaranteed remittance.
Charging-network outage
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
Medium
Mitigation
Multi-network route planning and workshop backup charging policy [malanka_outage].
Reputation/governance
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
High
Mitigation
Enhanced ownership, human-rights, state-link and anti-bribery diligence.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

90-day entry plan

Diligence precedes demand proof; demand proof precedes capability spend; supervised dry runs precede paid launch.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day entry plan

0–15
Workstream
—
Deliverable
Written go/no-go file.
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Explicit go / no-go gates

Any sanctions, banking, approval, insurer, tool-access or battery-route failure is a stop condition. The board should not trade legal certainty for market speed.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Go / no-go gates

Sanctions/banking
Threshold
—
Status
—
Decision
—
5 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Methodology

Facts, assumptions and calculations are separated. Conflicting definitions and source grains are reconciled rather than averaged.

Methodology

1. Evidence hierarchy
Method
Primary Belarus/EAEU sources first; authoritative relays where official pages are inaccessible; commercial sources labelled.
2. Definition control
Method
Separate private passenger stock, all-class signals, hybrids, sales, imports, quotas, charging devices, network objects and pipeline.
3. Service pool
Method
44,700 × 90% eligibility × 98% active; no imports or quota added.
4. TAM
Method
Active pool × 1.15 events × BYN380 ARO.
5. SAM
Method
TAM vehicles × 46.2% Minsk EV-specific proxy × 40% independent reach.
6. SOM
Method
Zero until hard sanctions, banking, compliance, capability and demand gates clear.
7. Scenarios
Method
Five-year EVS growth cases and pilot economics; no official target forced into model.
8. Validation
Method
JSON/schema, formulas, citations, links, branding and residue checks; assumptions remain explicit.

Source: EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

Source register

51 linked sources record publisher, date, access date and scope. Primary and authoritative sources control; commercial sources provide labelled market-presence signals only.

Get the full Belarus analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

EVS Board Position

CONDITIONAL GO for a sanctions-cleared Minsk partner pilot after all hard gates. NO-GO for standalone/franchise rollout and HOLD for pack work or cross-border flows until written clearance and operating proof.

Source register

51 primary and derived sources

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  1. 01Personal electric passenger vehicles reached 44,700 at end-2025
  2. 02Personal electric passenger fleet rose 3.2 times in 2024
  3. 03Regional private passenger-car and electric-car stock
  4. 04Total registered electric-vehicle context
  5. 05June 2026 electric-car registration signal
  6. 06Belarus new-car market grew 14% in 2025
  7. 07Belarus full-year 2025 brands and BEV models
  8. 08Record May 2026 electric-car sales
  9. 092026 EAEU tariff exemption for Belarus
  10. 10EAEU extended limited EV tariff relief through 2025
  11. 11VAT preferences for electric vehicles extended to 2028
  12. 12VAT and investment deduction under Decree 428
  13. 13Vehicle tax treatment
  14. 14Charging devices reached 2,026 at end-2025
  15. 15Malanka network and other operators at 1 January 2026
  16. 16Belarusian Oil Company 2026 charging-build plan
  17. 17Malanka charging tariffs from March 2026
  18. 18Nationwide Malanka outage and recovery
  19. 19Evika charging network reached 200 stations
  20. 20Decree 428 EV and charging preferences
  21. 21Government 2030 electric-vehicle target context
  22. 22State Customs Committee
  23. 23Belgee official market site
  24. 24Geely Belarus official site
  25. 25BYD Belarus market route
  26. 26Dongfeng Belarus market route
  27. 27Voyah Belarus market route
  28. 28Tesla Find Us
  29. 29Unified State Register
  30. 30Ministry of Taxes and Duties
  31. 31National Agency of Investment and Privatization
  32. 32Belarus occupational-safety legal profile
  33. 33Automobile-transport labour-protection rules
  34. 34Belarus OSH and technical-rules register
  35. 352024 amendments to Belarus waste law
  36. 36Industrial-waste hazard classification procedure
  37. 37Belarus OSH and fire-safety framework
  38. 38National Centre for Personal Data Protection
  39. 39EAEU technical regulations in force
  40. 40Electronic vehicle-passport register governance
  41. 41Ministry of Labour and Social Protection
  42. 42Ministry of Emergency Situations
  43. 43ADR 2025 files
  44. 44Basel Convention overview
  45. 45ISO 6469 electrified road-vehicle safety specifications
  46. 46IEC 61851-1 conductive charging systems
  47. 47ILO occupational safety and health guidelines
  48. 48EU sanctions against Belarus
  49. 49Republic of Belarus sanctions statutory guidance
  50. 50Belarus sanctions
  51. 51EVS Belarus serviceable-pool and pilot model

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