Russia

Preserve only a research option. Any operating approval requires transaction-specific UAE/EU/UK/US legal opinions, screened ownership/end use, named bank routes, lawful technical access, insurance and an explicit board ethics/brand decision. Until then, executable SOM is RUB0 [cbuae_tfs][evs_model].

At 1 January 2026 Russia had 80,000 BEVs and 112,600 PHEV/EREVs, or 192,600 plug-in passenger cars [autostat_stock][tass_plugin]. Early April was reported at about 208,000. BEVs were only 0.2% of the passenger fleet; PHEV/EREV stock was already larger than BEV stock.

New BEV sales rose from 3,000 in 2022 to 14,100 in 2023 and 17,800 in 2024, then fell 30% to 12,500 in 2025 [autostat_2024][autostat_sales25]. H1 2026 produced 4,606 new BEVs; Q1 registered 13,600 PHEV/EREVs [autostat_h126][tass_plugin]. Flow definitions and periods are not blended.

The model uses registered passenger BEVs plus PHEV/EREVs, not non-plug-in hybrids, vehicles sold, imports or charging sessions. AUTOSTAT industry-register analysis is the most consistent available stock source; no official open VIN-level active-status extract was located. PHEV includes range extenders as the cited source defines them.

Applying EVS growth assumptions of 5%, 12% and 20% to 192,600 produces 245,812, 339,427 and 479,250 plug-ins in 2031. These are service-planning scenarios, not forecasts. The 2025 BEV sales decline and 2026 PHEV acceleration justify a wide range [autostat_sales25][tass_plugin].

AUTOSTAT estimated almost 8,000 public stations in April 2026; 46% were in Moscow, Moscow Region, St Petersburg, Krasnodar and Tatarstan [autostat_charging]. Its fast/slow boundary is above versus at/below 22kW. Earlier estimates differ by survey basis and are not summed [autostat_charge_oct].

The federal government allocated RUB5.7bn for about 1,900 subsidised DC stations in 2025–2027 and introduced preferential lending; roadside obligations require at least 44kW DC at applicable sites from March 2026 [gov_charger_subsidy][gov_charge_loans][gov_road_charge]. These measures do not make an EVS workshop investable.

Russia had 47.45m passenger cars at 1 January 2026; 32.73m, or 69%, were over ten years old [autostat_parc]. The plug-in fleet is much younger: cited averages are about five years for BEVs and two years for PHEVs [tass_plugin]. Conventional-parc age supports chassis demand context but cannot be used as EV failure evidence.

Leaf and Tesla create ageing BEV demand; Zeekr and domestic EVs add software/access complexity; Li Auto and Voyah create dual ICE/HV needs [autostat_jul25][autostat_used]. EVS assumes 0.70 paid events and RUB45,000 addressable spend per plug-in annually. These are unsourced planning assumptions [evs_model].

Counterfactual TAM is RUB6.067bn: 192,600 × 0.70 events × RUB45,000. Applying 55% independent eligibility gives RUB3.337bn; 45% Moscow reach gives RUB1.502bn SAM; 1% gives RUB15.016m hypothetical SOM. Current executable SOM is zero because the NO-GO gate overrides market demand [evs_model].

At 0.45–0.90 events and RUB30,000–RUB70,000 spend, TAM spans RUB2.600bn–RUB12.134bn before eligibility. The pivotal uncertainties are PHEV event intensity, lawful parts/software access, sanctions-screenable demand, payment routes and convertibility—not arithmetic precision.

If every gate later clears, prioritise out-of-warranty Leaf/Tesla/Zeekr, Li Auto/Voyah PHEVs, used importers, fleets and insurer/body-shop depower referrals. Reject listed, blocked, government-linked or suspicious end users and any request involving circumvention.

Nissan Leaf remains the largest BEV model; Zeekr 001 is a major newer cohort [autostat_stock][autostat_jul25]. Li L7/L9 and Voyah Free lead PHEV/EREV stock. H1 2026 new-BEV leaders included Evolute i-JOY, UMO 5, Geely EX5 and Avatr 12 [autostat_h126].

Moskvich and Evolute have official dealer/service channels, while Moscow specialists such as Zeekr Lab and ELVE advertise HV, battery and software work [moskvich][evolute][zeekrlab][elve]. Websites evidence offers, not audited competence or market share. EVS would enter a supplied specialist market, not a blank space.

Moscow holds 28.8% of BEVs and Moscow Region 7.9%; together they also account for 31% of public stations [autostat_stock][autostat_charging]. Moscow is the only plausible post-gate pilot. St Petersburg and Krasnodar are later partner options; eastern Leaf-heavy regions require separate logistics economics.

Current manufacturer pages reference subsidised vehicle loans for eligible groups and programme-compliant vehicles, subject to caps and availability [moskvich]. No universal nationwide cash grant was verified. Local parking/tax benefits are excluded; the service model includes no customer subsidy.

The general corporate profit-tax rate is 25% and standard VAT is 22% in 2026 [fts_profit][fts_vat]. Investment deductions and charging infrastructure support may exist, but no award or workshop eligibility is assumed. Sanctions, banking and board gates override every incentive [eu_21].

No entity form is recommended. A post-gate project would need Russian and home-jurisdiction opinions on foreign investment, tax, premises, fire, customer repair, employment, cash registers, insurance and data. Online registration exists, but registration is not approval to transact [fts_register].

The cited labour source describes Order 903n electrical competence/testing but notes the then-current edition expired in 2025; counsel must identify the operative 2026 successor [rostrud_hv]. Class I–IV hazardous-waste collection, transport and treatment can be licensed activities [rpn_waste]. No pack opening before written mapping.

No launch is recommended. A future gated pilot would start with battery-health/pre-purchase evidence, diagnostics, charging/thermal, chassis and PHEV maintenance. Software is whitelist/referral only. Pack/module work waits for legal, insurer, fire, quarantine, waste, parts and competence approval.

Do not grant a Russia franchise. If all gates ever clear, use a revocable managed licence with two screened Moscow partner bays; EVS controls brand, SOP, audit, platforms and stop-work, while the operator owns local employment, premises, permits, insurance and waste. No exclusivity or sublicensing.

Only after all gates: base case 320 orders × RUB45,000 = RUB14.4m revenue; 52% margin yields RUB7.488m gross profit and RUB0.288m EBITDA after RUB7.2m OPEX. Break-even is 308 orders. Cautious EBITDA is −RUB2.165m; high RUB7.704m. Before VAT, tax, finance, FX and compliance cost [evs_model].

Sanctions/export, banking, beneficial ownership, brand/human-rights and restricted technical access dominate. Battery/fire, PHEV complexity and established competitors follow. The primary mitigation is not entering; later controls are external opinions, screening, whitelist, ring-fenced banks, quarantine and immediate exit rights.

Days 0–30 are desk diligence only. Days 31–60 occur only after all jurisdiction and board gates are green and cover counterparty/tool/insurer validation. Days 61–90 are a revocable Moscow partner pilot only after written approval. No lease, shipment, hiring, payment or brand licence precedes approvals.

Current status is NO-GO. Sanctions/export, bank/repatriation, UBO/end-use and board ethics/brand gates are red. Later gates require lawful platform coverage, 320 paid orders, 52% margin, ≤2.5% comeback, zero HV/waste events and 12 green weeks. Any red gate stops activity.

Primary government, tax, sanctions, export-control and regulator sources were prioritised. AUTOSTAT provides the consistent vehicle/charging series and is labelled industry analysis. Stock, sales, registrations and station definitions are separated. EVS assumptions are never presented as market facts.

No official open active VIN stock, exact PHEV model-age/service profile, independent workshop capacity, tariff survey, parts-access matrix, sanctions-screenable customer pool, bank route, insurance quote or legal opinion was obtained. The report cannot authorise entry or replace sanctions, export, tax or Russian counsel.

BEV stock is 80,000; PHEV/EREV stock is 112,600 [autostat_stock][tass_plugin]. New-BEV sales are flow, not stock [autostat_sales25]. Public charging estimates reflect AUTOSTAT survey definitions; an earlier 6,500 count is not added to 8,000 [autostat_charge_oct][autostat_charging].

All economics are nominal RUB and exclude VAT, profit tax, financing, FX, repatriation, compliance and working capital. Russian new passenger-car sales fell 15.6% to 1.326m in 2025 [reuters_sales]. Obtain fresh lawful rent, wages, utilities, parts, insurance and bank quotes only after legal gates.

H1 2025 used-BEV purchases were 5,537, led by Nissan, Zeekr and Tesla; Moscow had 1,054 [autostat_used]. Imported vehicles can carry title, damage, charging, localisation, firmware, parts and sanctions risks. Intake must record origin, seller, VIN, end user and software path.

Delivery, rental, ride-hail and corporate fleets could value uptime, but no defensible plug-in fleet stock was found and no uplift enters TAM. Any anchor must pass ownership, bank and end-use screening. Two paid non-prohibited anchors would be required post-gate [evs_model].

Pre-screen person/entity, payment, VIN, origin, end use and requested software/parts; then book, scan, isolate, evidence, estimate, approve, repair, verify and deliver. Reject restricted, evasive or unverifiable work. Damaged batteries use separate towing and quarantine.

If legally available: “evidence before replacement” across BEV and PHEV systems, with transparent access/parts limits and documented safety. EVS must not promise OEM equivalence, unrestricted software, sanctions-proof payments or universal battery repair.

Counterfactual pricing uses fixed-fee inspections/diagnostics, menu pricing for mechanical/thermal work and estimates for HV/PHEV jobs. Quotes separate VAT, parts, data, warranty and custody. No competitor price survey was completed; RUB45,000 is an EVS assumption.

Only after legality: screened importers/dealers, fleets, leasing/rental, insurers/body shops, charging operators and owner communities. No affiliate, influencer, reseller or fleet contract bypasses screening. OEM-authorisation claims are prohibited unless documented.

Record legal name, UBO, sanctions results, bank, fleet size, models, origin, end use, current provider, downtime, price and procurement date. Compliance clears before commercial scoring. Letters of intent do not clear demand or legal gates.

No site search now. A future Moscow partner site needs segregable HV bay, external quarantine, fire access, lawful occupancy, secure data, waste controls and insurer approval. Weight exit flexibility, counterparty ownership and bankability above rent.

One diagnostic/mechanical bay, one controlled HV-capable bay, secure tools/parts, clean electronics bench, isolated charging and monitored external quarantine. All assets remain removable; restricted tools/software are never transferred without approval.

Safety and mechanical tools are standard; diagnostics, programming supplies, battery equipment, software and parts require sanctions/export classification, end-use controls and licences where applicable [bis_russia][uk_sanctions]. No equipment shipment while NO-GO.

No recruitment now. A future pilot uses a compliance manager, HV diagnostic technician, PHEV/EV mechanic, custody adviser and 0.5 remote legal/technical support. Local competence and labour status must be verified; remote access must not transfer prohibited services or data.

Build a task/platform/voltage-state matrix under the operative 2026 Russian electrical rules [rostrud_hv]. Include sanctions/end-use escalation, LOTO, rescue, battery chemistry, fire, waste, data and software controls. No technician self-authorises a new platform.

Identify vehicle, battery, damage and end-use state; zone, shut down, isolate, prove absence, lock/tag, wait the OEM interval, verify residual energy and control keys. Maintain rescue and independent re-energisation check. Compliance stop overrides production.

VIN-level pre/post scans, estimates, approvals, torque/parts/software evidence, custody and 30-day outcomes. Review every comeback, access failure, screened rejection and near miss. No sales target overrides sanctions, safety or data rules.

Create a lawful platform whitelist with ownership, host country, licence, data route, credentials, read/write scope and export classification. Russia personal-data operators have duties under 152-FZ [rkn_data]. Cross-border diagnostics require a separate legal/cyber design.

No sourcing while NO-GO. Future parts require supplier/UBO screening, item classification, origin, end use, compatibility, firmware, warranty and return evidence. High-priority electronics and US/EU/UK-origin content receive enhanced controls [bis_russia][eu_21].

Approve banks, landlords, suppliers, tow firms and waste partners by legal status, ownership, sanctions, insurance and traceability. Class I–IV waste activities may require licensed contractors [rpn_waste]. Maintain damaged-battery chain of custody.

No Russia marketing or franchise solicitation while NO-GO. A later launch would publish methods, limits, independent status and complaint route; never advertise sanctioned access, guaranteed localisation, unrestricted payments, OEM equivalence or political neutrality.

Use EVS black/charcoal, EVS Green #5BCC12, EVS Silver #A7B3BB, white/light grey and Inter. The brand gate assesses human-rights, war-economy, employee, customer and global-franchise impact. Do not use blue or mimic OEM identities.

Russia is not franchise-ready. Sanctions, banking, technical access and brand governance are unresolved. Even after clearance, the first unit must be managed, revocable and audited weekly; passive franchising requires 12 green weeks, lawful replication and board re-authorisation.

Board owns country/ethics risk; legal owns sanctions/export/UBO; finance owns banks/cash; technical owns item/platform classification and SOP; brand owns claims; local responsible person owns HV/fire/waste. EVS retains immediate stop-work and brand suspension.

While NO-GO, track only diligence closure. Post-gate: unresolved compliance flags, orders, ARO, margin, comeback, platform coverage, fleet mix, payments, HV/waste events and data exceptions. Compliance and safety have absolute veto.

Diligence phase: legal/UBO/bank review, technical classification, brand/board review and decision log. A future pilot adds operations, P&L, quality and safety. Every week re-screens counterparties and applicable sanctions; changed law can stop activity instantly.

Stage 0 is no operations. Stage 1 could be two Moscow partner bays only after every red gate turns green. Moscow Region follows after 12 green weeks; St Petersburg/Krasnodar are referral options. Other regions require new board approval.

If any sanctions, bank, brand, safety or data gate fails, do not enter or immediately suspend, preserve records, secure customer vehicles, return/erase controlled assets lawfully and revoke brand access. Desk research may continue without commercial contact.

A lawful independent service option could extend vehicle/battery life through diagnosis and safe repair. No carbon savings are claimed. Sustainability cannot justify prohibited transfers, sanctions circumvention, unsafe batteries or weak waste custody.

A future pilot requires workshop, professional, property, cyber, custody, HV/battery/fire and sanctions-compliant cover. Insurer, broker, reinsurer, bank and beneficiaries must be screened. No policy, exclusion or payment route is assumed.

RUB7.2m base 90-day OPEX is an EVS envelope. No quote solicitation occurs while NO-GO. After clearance, obtain three payroll, two partner-bay, utilities, waste, insurer and bank quotes; model 25% profit tax and 22% VAT separately [fts_profit][fts_vat].

Only after legal approval, mystery-shop Moskvich/Evolute dealers, Zeekr Lab, ELVE and other Moscow specialists for lead time, fee, platform, parts, warranty and battery scope [moskvich][evolute][zeekrlab][elve]. Public offers do not prove throughput, quality or compliant access.

Tier 1: Russian government/regulators, EU Council, UK Government, OFAC, BIS and CBUAE. Tier 2: AUTOSTAT and Reuters. Tier 3: OEM/operator claims. Accessed 10 August 2026; sanctions and designations require transaction-time refresh.

Approve no Russia operating investment. Permit only a capped external legal/ethics/data study with no local commitments. Any later proposal returns to the board with signed multi-jurisdiction opinions, screened counterparties, approved bank routes, platform/item matrix, insurance and exit plan.

The complete registry is embedded in sources with publisher, publication/access dates, links and use notes. Material quantitative claims carry source IDs. EVS assumptions, counterfactual economics and current executable SOM zero are explicitly labelled.