Poland.

• CONDITIONAL GO: validate a company-controlled Warsaw West/Southwest hub, with Łódź–Stryków as the central logistics/spoke option.
• The market is scaling quickly: Poland had 292,472 passenger plug-in cars at 30 June 2026—142,130 BEVs and 150,342 PHEVs [pzpm_jun26].
• The service opening is real but not yet mature: the wider passenger fleet is old, yet most plug-ins are recent; EVS should start with diagnosis, battery reports, chassis/HVAC and fleets rather than assume mature pack-repair demand.
• No national franchise rollout yet: OEM access, fire/waste controls, price sensitivity and capable independent networks require paid validation first.

Approve a 90-day paid validation programme, Warsaw-corridor premises option and platform-access tests. Do not approve national franchising, unsupported programming or battery-module opening until all demand, access, safety, staffing and economics gates pass.

At 30 June 2026 Poland had 292,472 passenger plug-in cars: 142,130 BEVs and 150,342 PHEVs. The broader BEV passenger-and-commercial total was 154,947 [pzpm_jun26]. Passenger plug-ins—not the broader BEV total—anchor the service model.

Passenger stock is distinct from commercial vehicles, registration flow and chargers. H1 registrations are not added to the June stock. PHEVs are included because an exact current passenger count exists, but every advertised PHEV function remains platform-gated.

Passenger plug-in stock rose from 141,455 at end-2024 to 237,649 at end-2025 and 292,472 by June 2026 [pap_2024] [pim_2025] [pzpm_jun26]. That is a step-change in scale, but recent additions mean the deep out-of-warranty pool lags total stock.

H1 2026 new passenger plug-ins reached 55,257, up 52% year on year: 20,984 BEVs and 34,273 PHEVs [h1_flow26]. EAFO records 37,652 light BEVs and 28,143 PHEVs in 2025 [eafo_2025]. Scope and period differences are retained rather than blended.

From the June 2026 plug-in base, EVS planning scenarios reach roughly 487k cautious, 640k base and 828k high passenger plug-ins by end-2030. The 12%, 19% and 26% CAGRs are EVS assumptions—not official forecasts—and should be refreshed quarterly.

Poland had 13,201 public charging points in June 2026, including 6,668 DC points, or 49% [pzpm_jun26]. EAFO counted 11,762 points at end-2025 [eafo_2025]. The series supports roadside demand but does not measure workshop utilisation.

Poland’s average passenger car was 15.1 years old in 2023 [acea_age]. This supports tyres, brakes, suspension and inspection remediation, but it must not be applied to the young plug-in stock. Obtain plug-in age and warranty-band extracts before committing battery-repair capex.

Polish law separates periodic/additional vehicle inspection from repair [inspection]. EVS should build SKP referral and remediation workflows without presenting the pilot as an inspection station. No EV-only failure rate was identified, so none is invented.

Core TAM is 292,472 passenger plug-ins × 55% annual addressable incidence × PLN5,500 = PLN884.7m. Independent-eligible value is PLN486.6m. A 30% Warsaw+Łódź reach proxy gives PLN146.0m SAM. Base pilot SOM is 3,200 repair orders × PLN6,500 = PLN20.8m. All incidence, spend, eligibility and reach inputs are EVS assumptions.

It excludes commercial EVs, statutory SKP revenue, charging installation, body repair, full-pack replacement and national franchise revenue. It includes passenger PHEVs economically, while technical eligibility remains VIN/function-specific.

Prioritise used-EV dealers/importers, leasing and corporate fleets, post-warranty owners, insurers/bodyshops/recovery and high-utilisation fleets. These segments pay for evidence, uptime and repairability rather than generic maintenance alone.

Tesla led 2025 BEV brands and Model Y/3 remained leading models; BYD Dolphin Surf and Citroën ë-C3 also scaled rapidly [rp_models25]. Build verified coverage for Tesla, Stellantis, VAG, Hyundai/Kia and premium PHEVs; admit fast-growing Chinese platforms only after access and parts tests.

Tesla lists four Polish service areas [tesla_service]. Bosch markets EV/hybrid work through a nationwide network [bosch_ev] [bosch_network], while Warsaw, Kraków and Poznań specialists offer focused alternatives [service24ev] [kukho] [nikola]. EVS must differentiate through auditable battery reports, cross-brand depth, fleet SLAs and insurer workflow.

Recommend Warsaw West/Southwest for the first customer-facing hub and Łódź–Stryków as logistics/spoke option. Wrocław and Poznań follow; Silesia and Kraków suit partner territory. Scores are EVS assumptions pending postcode stock, rents, labour, access times and paid customer-origin data.

NaszEauto applications closed on 30 April 2026 after more than 41,000 applications and over PLN1.3bn requested against a PLN1.18bn allocation [nasze_closed]. Historic caps are documented [nasze_caps], but EVS forecasts and economics assume no ongoing vehicle-purchase grant.

The Polish Investment Zone and PAIH outline tax exemptions, grants and local relief for qualifying investments [piz] [paih_incentives]. No routine workshop award is assumed; every incentive stays outside economics until written eligibility and award.

Poland’s standard CIT rate is 19%; a 9% rate may apply to qualifying small/start-up taxpayers under detailed limits and exclusions [cit]. Confirm VAT treatment, establishment, transfer pricing and withholding before contracting. PKD classification does not replace approvals [pkd].

PIP requires risk assessment, worker information, PPE and occupational health controls [pip_risk] [pip_ppe] [pip_medical]. Map statutory electrical/energy qualifications to fixed and traction tasks with Polish counsel [energy_qual]; do not use “SEP” shorthand as a blanket vehicle-HV credential.

No single blanket workshop licence is assumed. EVS must map company registration/PKD, planning/building, fire, waste/BDO, F-gas, chemicals, charging/fixed equipment, consumer, labour, insurance and any SKP boundary to the selected premises.

Require task-specific competence, isolation, lockout, test-before-touch, insulated tooling, controlled access, rescue equipment and signed authorisations. Fixed electrical/charging equipment and vehicle traction work require separate written applicability analysis [energy_qual] [udt_guide].

The Polish Waste Act, BDO system and EU Battery Regulation govern waste and battery responsibilities [waste_act] [bdo] [battery_eu]. No damaged-pack acceptance or opening before quarantine, monitoring, transport, authorised downstream treatment, fire authority and insurer requirements are signed.

Confirm enterprise and personnel F-gas duties with UDT and apply the current EU F-gas framework [udt_fgas] [fgas_eu]. REACH/CLP controls apply to workshop chemicals and safety information [reach] [clp].

Use clear estimates, diagnostic authorisations, exclusions, evidence packs, warranties and complaint handling aligned with UOKiK expectations [uokik]. VIN, telemetry, battery and fleet data require GDPR minimisation, access control and retention governance [uodo].

Use Polish contract/civil-law counsel and EU vertical/motor aftermarket rules [vber] [motor_guidelines]. Repair-information law supports independent access but does not guarantee protected functions, parts or software [type_approval]. No franchise sale before one audited operating year.

Launch battery-health certificates, paid fault isolation, charging/thermal diagnosis, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, compliant HVAC, fleet SLAs, collection and mobile triage. Hold module repair, unsupported programming and safety-critical ADAS release behind explicit gates.

Use one company-controlled Warsaw-corridor hub with central technical governance, bilingual Polish/English customer controls, a VIN/function database and Łódź logistics/collection coverage. Expand through audited spokes or partners only after hub evidence is reproducible.

The illustrative base case generates PLN20.8m revenue, 55% gross margin and PLN0.74m EBITDA before tax, financing and central allocations. Low case loses PLN6.10m; high case earns PLN9.45m. Anchor contracts, ticket validation and staged capex are mandatory.

OEM security/parts and battery fire are critical. High risks are young stock timing, capable low-cost independents, regional demand and PHEV complexity. Paid tests, narrow claims, one hub and explicit scope gates mitigate—not eliminate—them.

Days 0–30: legal/HSE scope, interviews, postcode data and tool matrix. Days 31–60: 100 paid diagnostics, 30 VIN/function tests and binding site/compliance quotes. Days 61–90: anchor LOIs, HSE audit, conditional lease, lead hire and refreshed board model.

No hub without PLN9m credible annualised contracted demand, 100 paid jobs, 90% promised-function success, written safety/compliance approvals, validated positive base economics and a competent team. No franchise sales before the separate franchise gate.

Obtain plug-in stock by postcode, age and warranty band; real workshop ticket and cycle-time distributions; OEM tool/function pass rates; lease and labour quotes; insurer terms; BDO/fire requirements; and customer willingness to pay for battery evidence.

PZPM/PSNM and EU sources anchor stock, flow and charging. Polish government/legal sources anchor incentives, tax and regulation. Commercial sources map competition only. Quantitative claims point to source IDs; sourced facts and EVS assumptions are separated in datasets and calculations.

The passenger plug-in stock is precise but city/age/warranty distribution, EV-only inspection failures, workshop pricing, OEM-function access, insurer conditions and labour availability are not. Forecasts, reach, incidence, spend, location scores and economics are decision-support assumptions, not market statistics.

The source table records publisher, publication date where available, access date, definition notes and direct URL. Material current pages were freshly checked; URL syntax validation is not represented as universal website availability.

Approve Poland validation. Authorise a Warsaw West/Southwest hub only after every operating gate passes, use Łódź–Stryków as the central logistics/spoke option, and defer national franchising and battery-module repair.