Paraguay.

• CONDITIONAL GO for one reversible managed partner bay in Greater Asunción; HOLD a greenfield centre and franchise award.
• OLADE-scope light BEV+PHEV stock was 4,359 in March 2026 [abc_olade2026] [olade_pdf2026]. Q1 light sales eased 7% year on year even as mixed HEV+PHEV+BEV imports accelerated, so definitions and timing matter.
• The EVS active planning pool is 4,185 vehicles; current executable SOM is zero until demand, regulatory, software, supply and battery-route gates pass.
• Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, removal, module repair and battery custody.

Approve diligence and a capped PYG350m tooling/fit-out envelope only after 35 qualified paid appointments, two fleet LOIs covering 35 jobs/month, current VIN evidence and written compliance approvals. Base annual EBITDA is PYG101.76m with 3.44-year simple payback; the 90-day base case requires 120 paid jobs.

The current core is 4,359 light BEV+PHEVs at March 2026 [abc_olade2026]. Separate signals are 434 Q1-2026 light sales versus 469 a year earlier and 4,049 mixed BEV+PHEV+HEV imports in 2025, including 2,086 ordinary HEVs [abc_olade2026] [cadam_2025]. These are not additive. The rounded 3.2m total parc and motorcycle counts are context only [dra_parc2025].

BEV+PHEV stock is the service-market denominator. Ordinary HEVs, annual imports, quarterly sales, motorcycles, electric buses, stations, connectors and statutory charger targets are recorded separately and never summed [olade_pdf2026] [law6925].

EVS applies cautious/base/high five-year growth of 15%/25%/35% to the 4,185 active planning pool. These are service-capacity scenarios—not official forecasts—and the 2026 mixed-import surge is not mechanically applied to stock.

Electromaps listed 107 Paraguayan stations and 31 in Asunción at access, but it is a crowd-sourced live directory rather than an official installed/uptime census [electromaps_py] [electromaps_asu]. Itaipu provides primary evidence for specific corridor and Ciudad del Este assets [itaipu_cde] [itaipu_route_ops]. Law 6925 targets are not counted as delivered.

No authoritative plug-in or total-parc age distribution was located, so EVS does not invent an average age. Demand is modelled from sourced plug-in stock and explicit service-frequency assumptions. Capital plus Central held 46.5% of the all-vehicle parc in March 2025; EVS uses a higher 68% plug-in concentration only as a disclosed assumption [parc_mar2025].

Sourced stock is separated from every EVS assumption. TAM uses active factor, service frequency and ARO; SAM adds Greater Asunción concentration and independent reach. Current executable SOM remains zero until every launch gate passes.

Prioritise uptime-sensitive corporate/rental fleets, ride-hailing, private owners and used-import dealers. Public e-buses are a separate training/EVSE opportunity and are excluded from the one-bay light-vehicle economics [bus_fleet] [mopc_bus_tests].

CADAM provides 2025 import shares by technology, not the active stock by model. BYD led both PHEV and BEV imports, while Volvo and Nissan were material BEV brands [cadam_2025]. Tool investment follows verified VIN counts and software access, not import publicity.

Authorised BYD, Volvo, Santa Rosa and SERES networks retain warranty, software and parts advantages. General independents compete on chassis and routine work; EV/HV capability is never inferred from a website and must be field-audited.

Greater Asunción is the only launch market. Ciudad del Este/Hernandarias, Encarnación and Coronel Oviedo/Caaguazú are mobile/referral corridors supported by parc, charger or authorised-workshop evidence—not reasons for secondary fixed sites.

Law 6925 provides ten-year import-duty/IVA relief, stepped vehicle-patent relief, parking provisions, charging targets, training duties and importer take-back obligations [law6925]. Its broad electric-vehicle definition includes hybrids, so every claim requires vehicle/HS-code and authority confirmation. No incentive is booked in pilot economics.

Economics are pre-IVA, unlevered and in nominal PYG. Paraguay applies 10% IRE and generally 10% IVA for the modelled workshop service, subject to local advice [dnit_iva] [dnit_ire]. USD equivalents use the BCP 27 July 2026 close of PYG6,021.53/USD [bcp_fx2026].

Entry requires entity/DNIT/IPS registration, municipal patent/licence and plans, MADES environmental classification/DIA, drainage and waste controls, fire/occupancy approval, INTN electrical certification and MTESS safety compliance. The relevant authority—not EVS—determines the final permit path.

Phase 1 uses named authorised persons, VIN-specific isolation, proof of absence of voltage, insulated tools, thermal-event pre-planning and a hard no-pack-opening boundary. EVSE work follows qualified-provider and INTN inspection routes [intn_charge_standards] [intn_charge_inspection].

Law 6925 places exhausted-product take-back duties on importers/producers and requires separate dangerous-waste handling [law6925]. EVS must not remove, store or open traction batteries until a written classification, carrier, importer route and named authorised receiver exist. Ordinary workshop waste, effluent and environmental controls remain mandatory [mades_workshop2019].

Lead with diagnostics, non-invasive battery-health evidence, charging-fault triage, chassis, 12V, cooling/HVAC, pre-purchase and fleet preventive maintenance. Pack opening, module repair and traction-battery custody are excluded.

Use one audited Greater Asunción partner bay under EVS procedures, job-card evidence and audit rights. No lease, secondary site or franchise award until the pilot passes every gate and sustains at least six months of economics.

A capped PYG350m one-bay setup is tested across three scenarios. The base case is 480 jobs/year at PYG1.35m ARO and 62% gross margin. All figures are pre-IVA and exclude financing, IRE, owner distributions and unapproved incentives.

The principal risks are a small/opaque pool, definition inflation, OEM software access, fragmented brands, parts lead times, battery custody, charger uptime, FX and regulatory implementation. The operating model converts each into a measurable gate.

The sequence is evidence → demand → partner/site → compliance → supervised soft launch → paid pilot → board gate. No workstream authorises the next automatically.

Failure of any safety, legal, battery or insurer gate is a stop. Commercial continuation additionally requires volume, ARO, gross margin, EBITDA and payback thresholds.

Sources were accessed on 10 August 2026. Primary/authoritative evidence is preferred; secondary sources and the live charging directory are labelled. Missing quantities remain unavailable, definitions are reconciled explicitly and EVS assumptions are sensitivity-tested.

Every material sourced figure resolves to the registry below. Publication/access dates and evidence roles are recorded; the EVS model source covers assumptions and calculations only.

Proceed only with a gated Greater Asunción managed-bay pilot. A dedicated site, franchise award, traction-pack work and regional expansion remain on hold until verified demand, platform access, compliance, battery route and economics support them.