Bolivia

Authorise up to 90 days of validation and a shared partner-bay pilot in Santa Cruz. Do not sign a standalone lease, sell a franchise, open traction batteries or recognise market share. Advance only if two commercial demand commitments, an audited VIN file, compliant waste routes and the BOB400,000/4.0-year investment gate are all evidenced.

OLADE-scope light BEV+PHEV stock was 3,839 at December 2024. A May 2026 AP report cites 3,352 RUAT electric cars after growth from 500 over five years [universo_olade2025] [ap_ruat2026]. The second figure is treated as BEV-only and a cross-check—not a subtraction, trend point or addition. The 2.67m national parc is relevant for chassis and low-voltage demand, not the EV denominator [ine_parc2025].

Stock, registrations, import units, import values and charger announcements answer different questions. Ordinary HEVs, electric motorcycles and buses need different service propositions. The model therefore uses only the OLADE light BEV+PHEV stock anchor and records every other measure as context or a validation requirement.

The three scenarios compound the EVS active pool at 15%, 28% and 42% annually for five years. They are planning envelopes, not official forecasts. The wide range reflects fuel-price pressure and expanding Chinese supply on one side, and FX, policy expiry, finance, software access and charging constraints on the other.

ENDE reported 11 installed 22kW AC stations across four cities in 2022 [ende_charging2022]. More recent evidence confirms three ELFEC points in Cochabamba, three public stations across La Paz/El Alto and one 240kW private Santa Cruz site [elfec_app] [ap_ruat2026] [electropoint2026]. These are separate observations, not a deduplicated national total.

Bolivia had 2,672,176 registered vehicles in 2025. Santa Cruz, La Paz and Cochabamba held 79.6% [eju_parc2025]. The published model-year bands leave 44.9% as 2010 or older by residual calculation. That supports chassis, electrical and HVAC demand, but it must not be used as the age profile of the much younger plug-in fleet.

TAM starts with 3,839 light plug-ins, applies a 95% active factor and 1.20 annual service events. SAM applies a 45% Santa Cruz concentration and 50% independent reach. All are EVS assumptions. Current executable SOM is zero because no launch gate has passed.

The best early customers are owners outside a clear OEM support route, used/private import channels and fleets that value downtime reduction. Warranty-covered vehicles stay with authorised networks unless there is a written referral. Motorcycles and buses remain separate propositions.

Bolivia now has BYD, Deepal/Changan, Riddara, XPENG, Quantum and Dongfeng electric or range-extender products in market-facing channels [fexco2026] [changan_g318] [riddara2026] [rodaria_vigo]. No audited national registration share by brand/model was located, so scan tools and subscriptions are purchased only against named VIN demand.

IMCRUZ, Hansa, Crown, Taiyo, Quantum and broad OEM groups carry parts, warranty and software advantages. EVS should compete on cross-brand evidence, safe diagnostics, pre-purchase battery health, chassis/HVAC work and fleet SLAs—not unsupported coding or warranty displacement.

Santa Cruz combines the largest all-vehicle parc, current fast-charging investment and importer concentration. Cochabamba adds established charging and historical EV activity; La Paz/El Alto adds a dense, high-altitude metro with limited public charging. Expansion follows paid VINs, not population alone.

DS 4539, DS 5142 and DS 5653 create differentiated GA/ICE treatment. DS 5653 applies only through 31 December 2026 and its annex varies by technology, class and age [ds4539] [ds5142] [abi_ds5653]. EVS books zero benefit until a customs adviser confirms each HS code and the post-2026 regime.

The pilot economics are nominal BOB, pre-IVA and unlevered. The BCB official USD rate moved to BOB11.86 effective 6 August 2026 [bcb_fx2026]. Imported tools, subscriptions and parts therefore require short quote validity and scenario pricing. No customs, finance or tax incentive is recognised.

The pilot needs entity/tax/employer registration, Santa Cruz activity and land-use approvals, environmental categorisation, hazardous-waste contracts, fire/electrical evidence, insurer acceptance and a written IBMETRO scope decision. Law 755 makes hazardous-waste generators responsible even when using an operator [law755].

No national EV-specific technician credential was located. EVS therefore requires role-based authorisation, observed isolation, live/dead/live proof, LOTO, rescue drills, qualified EVSE providers and insurer-approved quarantine. National labour law still sets binding electrical, fire, PPE and hazardous-substance duties [labour_law].

Law 755 requires segregation, labelling, safe storage, authorised operators, manifests and contracts for hazardous waste, and includes batteries in producer-responsibility provisions [law755]. Because no public traction-battery receiver list was located, phase 1 performs only non-invasive diagnostics and refuses damaged-pack custody.

Phase 1 focuses on diagnostics, battery-health reports, charging faults, tyres/alignment/brakes, 12V, cooling/HVAC and fleet preventive maintenance. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack storage and unsupported software programming are excluded.

EVS supplies the technical operating system, authorisation matrix, job-card controls and audit. The local partner supplies compliant premises, people and ordinary workshop infrastructure. Brand transfer, franchise fees and a standalone lease wait for 90-day proof.

At 360 jobs/year, BOB1,800 ARO and 62% gross margin, the model produces BOB101,760 annual EBITDA on BOB400,000 capex—a 3.93-year simple payback. The cautious case loses BOB101,400. These are EVS assumptions before IVA, tax, debt, depreciation and working capital.

The investment can fail through an overstated active parc, unsupported VINs, imported-cost volatility, OEM software constraints or unsafe battery custody. The mitigation is structural: no standalone lease, VIN-led tooling, deposits, written scope boundaries, authorised waste routes and stop-work gates.

The sequence is market file, partner audit, demand commitments, compliance, technical proof, suppliers and a paid pilot. The decision committee receives the same weekly job, ARO, gross-margin, turnaround, comeback, parts-lead-time, safety and referral dashboard used by the operator.

No single attractive metric overrides a failed gate. A missing battery route stops pack custody; unsupported software stops that job; failed demand or economics stops rollout; a serious HV or waste incident stops work. The current executable SOM is therefore zero.

Evidence was accessed on 10 August 2026. Primary and authoritative sources were preferred, then triangulated secondary reports where public tables were not directly extractable. Every EVS rate, filter, forecast and financial input is labelled as an assumption. Figures at incompatible grains are never summed.

The report embeds publication/access dates, publishers, direct links and notes for each source. Dynamic legal, tax, exchange-rate, charging and product pages require a final live check before a binding decision. EVS model entries identify calculations and assumptions rather than external facts.

Decision: proceed only with diligence and a managed Santa Cruz partner-bay pilot. Do not authorise a standalone centre, traction-battery repair, franchise rollout or market-share claim until every gate is evidenced.