Uruguay

Authorise up to 45 days of denominator, partner, site and compliance diligence. Do not sign a long lease, release the USD 180,000 capex envelope, grant territory or take damaged-EV custody until G1–G8 pass. If they pass, run a capped 90-day pilot targeting 270 paid jobs, USD 320+ average repair order, at least 58% gross margin, zero severe HV incidents and non-negative EBITDA.

Uruguay sold 14,443 electric vehicles in 2025, up 146.7%, against 71,442 total new vehicles [acau_2025_bloomberg]. Q1 2026 added 5,192 electric sales, while May secondary market data reported 2,675 BEVs plus 213 PHEV/EREVs [elpais_2026_ev] [may_2026_zemo]. These are flows, not active stock.

ACAU/CIAU sales include public, dealer, tender and import transactions but are not patent registrations [models_2025_autoblog]. El País reports 14,441 electric vehicles commercialised in 2025, of which 11,381 were zero-km, versus ACAU’s later 14,443 headline. EVS uses 14,443 for the full-year flow, preserves the scope conflict and does not present the cumulative series as active stock.

Cautious, base and high cases apply 20%, 35% and 50% annual growth for five years to the 23,875 documented sales floor. They are EVS planning sensitivities, not official forecasts, and must be rebased to active registrations.

UTE’s current network statement says more than 450 charging points; a defined 2024 snapshot counted 327, including 119 DC points [ute_network_450] [ute_network_327]. The difference reflects time and possibly definitions. EVS keeps points, sites, stations and connectors separate and should use the live UTE Mueve layer for operational diligence [ute_move].

No authoritative national average vehicle age or active EV model-year file was located. The documented EV cohort is demonstrably young: 60.5% of the 2020–2025 sales floor came in 2025 and 85.0% in 2024–2025. BYD’s warranty service rule creates an annual touchpoint but also warranty captivity [byd_service].

The model starts with a sourced 23,875-unit sales floor, then applies five explicit EVS assumptions: 97% survival/in-country, 1.25 annual paid events, USD 320 pre-VAT ARO, 90% metro concentration and 45% independent reach. Current SOM remains zero until the gates pass.

Start B2B: importer/dealer overflow, corporate and delivery fleets, insurers/bodyshops and used-EV evidence. Retail follows only after platform coverage, first-time-fix and parts access are proven. The 279-bus electric urban fleet is attractive but requires separate heavy-vehicle competence [miem_electric_buses].

BYD Yuan Pro and Seagull alone represented 5,423 passenger EV sales in 2025. Dongfeng Nammi, BYD e2, Chevrolet Spark EUV, JMEV EV3 and Geely EX5 form the next launch cohort [models_2025_autoblog]. Model ranking is sales evidence, not active VIN stock.

OEM networks are formidable because the fleet is young: BYD publishes authorised annual servicing, Dongfeng lists broad interior coverage and Chevrolet controls diagnostics, parts and connected-service relationships [byd_network] [dongfeng_service] [chevrolet_service]. EVS should sell neutral cross-brand evidence, overflow and insurer/fleet custody—not discount warranty work.

Montevideo, Canelones and Maldonado contain about 90% of the reported electric fleet [elpais_2026_ev]. A Montevideo–Canelones hub captures the densest owners, dealers, fleets and insurers; Maldonado should begin as collection/mobile coverage rather than a second fixed centre.

The 2026 patent regime is preferential but not free: 3% of VAT-exclusive market value for new EVs and 2.25% for qualifying used EVs versus general 5% and 4.5% [sucive_2026]. Do not repeat older “50% exemption” shorthand without the current tax base and conditions.

Model economics are pre-VAT and assume no incentive. Uruguay’s basic VAT rate is 22% and IRAE is 25% of net fiscal income [vat_22] [irae_25]. COMAP benefits are potential and project-specific; vehicle IMESI changes from 1 January 2027 require a current operative schedule [investment_2026] [decree_147_026].

A Montevideo workshop needs entity/tax registration, site-use viability, commercial-premises authorisation, DNB fire approval, electrical capacity and authorised waste routes [sas_registration] [montevideo_habilitation] [fire_372]. No dedicated national EV-workshop or HV licence was located; that gap requires written counsel, not an assumption of permission.

Decree 291/007 establishes the workplace risk-prevention duty. EVS should layer a role-based HV authorisation system—awareness, isolation and diagnosis—over local CEFOMER/OEM training, with lockout/tagout, prove-dead, rescue and VIN-specific procedures [workplace_safety] [utec_hv_training].

Decree 227/025 explicitly captures vehicle batteries above 1 kW regardless of chemistry or propulsion [battery_guidance]. Tyre-changing businesses must join an approved master plan and act as collection points; other industrial workshop waste must be classified and routed to authorised managers [tyre_guidance] [industrial_waste].

Launch with read-only battery evidence, PDI/campaign work, vehicle-side charging/thermal/12V diagnosis, tyres/brakes/suspension/HVAC, fleet mobile triage and collision isolation. Keep fixed charger work with qualified electrical partners and pack opening behind a separate audited gate.

Use company-controlled technical governance at a managed partner site: two bays, appointment intake, separated quarantine, mobile reach and low inventory. Do not franchise until 12 audited months prove safety, first-time-fix, comeback, demand and economics.

Illustrative base economics are 1,080 annual jobs at USD 320, 58% gross margin and USD 150,000 operating cost, producing USD 50,448 EBITDA and 3.57-year simple payback on USD 180,000 capex. The cautious case loses USD 61,820, so contracted utilisation is the decisive gate.

The biggest risks are denominator error, warranty captivity, platform/tool access, fixed-cost scale and battery/fire liability. Each has a binary control: registration extract, anchor contracts, VIN-level platform matrix, capped partner format and an authorised battery/insurer chain.

The first month resolves stock and law; the second proves platforms, site safety and paid jobs; the third contracts utilisation and rebases economics. A pilot is an evidence programme with stop-loss rules, not a disguised permanent opening.

No permanent lease until ≥30,000 active plug-ins are verified nationally, ≥18,000 are reachable in the three-department catchment, ≥90 monthly jobs are contracted, ≥70% of the reachable cohort is safely serviceable, all site/HV/waste/insurance gates pass and the rebased base case clears zero 90-day EBITDA and four-year payback.

Primary government, utility, tax and legal sources were preferred. ACAU figures were used through attributed publications because a directly queryable official file was not located. Facts, estimates and EVS assumptions are separated; material quantitative claims carry source IDs; all calculations were recomputed.

The source registry records title, publisher, publication/access date, URL and definition notes. Market sales, active-fleet estimates and charger counts remain explicitly different measures. Uncertainty is preserved rather than replaced with invented precision.

Conditional go to a reversible, company-controlled Montevideo–Canelones partner pilot; hold a standalone centre, deep battery repair and franchise rollout. Uruguay has enough EV momentum to justify paid proof, but the decision should be released only by active-stock, contracted-demand, platform, site, HV, battery and economics gates.