Colombia

Colombia has crossed from niche to rapid adoption, but infrastructure, independent technical capacity and reliable stock segmentation lag sales. EVS can win with cross-brand evidence and fleet uptime. Contracts, RUNT validation, legal tool access and a compliant battery workflow must precede property.

• 38,596 light BEV/PHEVs were reported in circulation in October 2025 [stock_olacde].
• 19,724 BEVs were registered in 2025 and 19,542 more in January–May 2026 [bev_2025] [fenalco_may2026].
• Colombia had 229 public stations, 401 chargers and 746 connectors in October 2025 [charging_stock].
• The active national parc was 21.35 million vehicles at end-2025 [runt_parc].
• Bogotá had 1,485 electric buses, excluded from the light-vehicle TAM [buses].

The 38,596 anchor is light vehicles in circulation and includes BEV plus PHEV. Monthly Colombian “hybrid” flows may include HEV, MHEV and PHEV; because the plug-in split is unavailable, they are excluded. BEV registration flows demonstrate momentum but are not added to the October stock. RUNT’s 21,301 “electric” initial registrations in a broader fuel series differ from ANDI/Fenalco’s 19,724 light-vehicle market count; each stays in its own definition [runt_parc] [bev_2025].

The public series changes definition over time—from all-class electric stocks to light BEV/PHEV circulation—so this report does not draw a false continuous stock curve. The comparable investment anchor is October 2025; later sales flows indicate it is conservative.

BEV registrations rose from 9,178 in 2024 to 19,724 in 2025, then reached 19,542 in only five months of 2026 [bev_2025] [fenalco_may2026]. BYD Yuan Up and Seagull led 2025, followed by a diverse Chinese, Korean and European cohort [models_2025].

EVS applies 28%, 40% and 55% annual growth for 62 months from the October-2025 stock, producing approximately 138,185, 219,552 and 371,469 light plug-ins at end-2030. These are planning scenarios, not official forecasts.

The October 2025 public network comprised 229 stations, 401 chargers and 746 connectors, concentrated in Bogotá, Antioquia and Valle del Cauca [charging_stock]. Interoperability rules introduce Type 2/CCS2 and OCPI data principles [charging_interop], while Resolution 40334 advances a simplified grid-connection route [charging_connection]. EVS should diagnose vehicle-side faults and use authorised electrical partners for fixed installations.

The visible cohort is very young and warranty-heavy. Launch revenue should emphasise tyres/chassis, thermal/HVAC, charging, 12V, ADAS, used-EV evidence and fleet/insurance work. Exact active age, class and city distributions require a current RUNT extract.

BEVs receive a 30% technical-inspection discount and the test omits combustion-only items; vehicles must arrive with at least 50% battery charge [inspection]. EVS can provide pre-inspection diagnosis but must not imply it is a certified inspection centre.

Sourced pool: 38,596 light BEV/PHEVs. EVS assumptions: 58% annual paid-service incidence, COP 1.8m spend, 38% independent eligibility and 65% hub reach. Result: COP 40,294,224,000 TAM, COP 15,311,805,120 eligible value, COP 9,952,673,328 SAM and COP 4.03bn base pilot SOM.

The model covers light BEV/PHEVs. Broad hybrid flows, motorcycles, machinery and the 1,485-bus Bogotá fleet are excluded. Bus training or overflow work is upside only after operator/OEM authorisation.

Start with contracted fleets, used-EV channels and insurers/bodyshops. They value evidence, custody and turnaround. Retail follows once platform coverage is proven; public buses remain a partnership vertical.

Launch around BYD Yuan Up/Seagull/Yuan Plus, Chery iCar 03, Volvo EX30 and Kia EV5. Every VIN/function must pass lawful tool, data, parts, lifting and isolation checks; unsupported coding and pack opening remain red.

OEM and distributor networks control warranty, genuine parts and secure diagnostics [byd] [kia] [volvo] [chery] [renault] [chevrolet]. EVS differentiates through neutral battery evidence, fleet SLAs and insurer triage. Enel X, Terpel Voltex and Celsia are infrastructure/referral partners, not substitutes for vehicle repair [enelx] [terpel] [celsia].

Bogotá west ranks first for fleet density, airport/logistics access and industrial premises. Medellín south is the logical second hub, followed by Cali–Yumbo. Avoid premium frontage; prioritise quarantine, access, security, drainage and power.

Law 1964 benefits include a vehicle-tax cap, SOAT and inspection discounts and traffic-restriction exemptions [law1964] [vehicle_tax] [inspection]. Qualifying BEV sales receive 5% VAT rather than 19% [vehicle_tax]. These incentives aid adoption but do not replace service demand proof.

UPME certification can enable VAT/tariff relief, income deductions and accelerated depreciation subject to technical qualification and DIAN approval [upme_incentives]. FOPAT can stimulate taxi demand [taxi_fopat]. The EVS base economics assume no incentive.

The VUI route covers constitution, Chamber registration, e-invoicing, banking and foreign-investment registration [entity]; RUT/NIT is integrated with RUES [rut]. The ordinary corporate rate is 35% [corporate_tax]. Use transaction-specific advice for VAT, withholding, customs and remittances.

The 2026 minimum base wage is COP 1,750,905, with COP 249,095 transport allowance for eligible workers [minimum_wage]. EVS should budget materially above the floor for diagnostic/HV talent and account for social contributions, benefits, reduced working hours and training.

Corporate registration does not authorise a workshop. Before lease, obtain local confirmation of land use, fire, building, environmental, wastewater, signage, hazardous-waste and electrical requirements in the chosen municipality.

No workshop-specific national HV technician licence was located. That is a diligence gap, not permission. Require written counsel, a technical authority, competency levels, lockout/tagout, live-work prohibition, rescue drills and calibrated insulated tools before energised-vehicle work.

Colombia’s Decree 1076 hazardous-waste framework is evolving [haz_waste]. New lead-acid battery duties took effect in 2026 but do not by themselves settle lithium traction-battery obligations [battery_waste]. Do not accept damaged packs before quarantine, fire response, manifests, transporter and licensed downstream manager are contracted.

Use certified refrigerant recovery and records; return used tyres through authorised collection systems [tyres]. Verify local wastewater and contaminated-liquid requirements. No imported jurisdictional assumption should substitute for municipal/environmental approval.

Written scope, estimates, warranty limitations and complaint handling should align with SIC consumer rules [consumer]. Customer/vehicle data require consent, access and retention controls [privacy]. Review supplier, insurer and franchise agreements for competition risk [competition].

Do not franchise initially. Operate one company-controlled hub for 12–18 months, centralising safety, platform approvals, evidence and procurement. Consider satellites only after repeatable economics and audits.

Launch battery-health/used-EV evidence, vehicle-side charging/thermal/12V diagnosis, tyres/chassis/ADAS, fleet SLA and insurer triage. Add bus or deep-pack work only through separate authorisation and investment gates.

Use a Bogotá west hub with collection/mobile triage and vetted regional partners. Maintain a green/amber/red function matrix. Digital work orders capture consent, custody, isolation state, parts traceability, evidence and release criteria.

The base case is 2,600 annual orders at COP 1.55m AOV, COP 4.03bn revenue, 54% gross margin and COP 2.0bn fixed cost, yielding COP 176.2m EBITDA. The low case loses COP 1.843bn; contracted demand and staged capex are therefore mandatory.

The biggest analytical risk is a stale stock anchor during explosive growth. Operational risks are OEM access, mixed hybrid definitions, thin charging, HV/waste gaps, COP volatility, security/custody and premature fixed cost. Buses are captive unless contracted.

Commission a current RUNT extract and secure customer LOIs first. In parallel, complete legal/HSE diligence and top-platform access tests. Then shortlist sites, run a paid mobile pilot and re-run the investment gates.

No lease without ≥45,000 active light BEV/PHEVs, ≥50% Bogotá/Cundinamarca concentration, ≥700 annualised contracted/LOI orders, lawful coverage for ≥70% of target demand, written HV scope and a costed compliant site. Stop if profit depends on unsecured bus work or incentives.

Obtain current RUNT stock by BEV/PHEV, class, year, city and status; PHEV split from broad hybrids; insurer claim volumes; fleet spend; OEM secure-access terms; parts lead times; workshop rent/power; municipal permits; lithium-battery classification and downstream capacity.

Primary government, regulator and industry-association sources were prioritised. Stock and flows remain separate; broad hybrid figures are excluded from plug-in sizing. Facts, assumptions and calculations are labelled, with access dates recorded.

The newest comparable active light plug-in stock located is October 2025. Rapid 2026 flows make it conservative, but adding them would risk overlap. Exact PHEV stock, age distribution, independent workshop capacity and local costs remain pre-investment gaps.

The artifact contains 41 linked records with publishers, publication dates where known, access dates and use notes. EVS model rows identify assumptions and calculations.

Conditional go to a low-capex Bogotá west validation programme. Advance to a permanent Fontibón–Puente Aranda–Mosquera hub only after stock, demand, tooling, HV/legal, site/HSE and economics gates pass. No early franchise rollout.