Ecuador

Authorise up to 45 days of evidence and partner diligence. Do not sign a long lease, grant territory, release the USD 80,000 tooling budget or take vehicle custody until G1-G5 pass. If they pass, release a capped 90-day Quito pilot targeting 180 paid jobs, USD 225+ average repair order, at least 55% gross margin, no HV incident and non-negative EBITDA.

H1 2026 produced 78,185 new vehicles, including 5,457 BEVs; June alone delivered 1,438 BEVs [aeade_jun2026_pdf]. The bulletin also reports 14,139 hybrids, but that bucket combines non-plug-in and plug-in technologies. The report therefore treats 19,596 all-electrified units as adoption context only and uses BEV alone for service sizing.

A central control is the refusal to relabel “hybrid” as PHEV. Secondary AEADE-linked 2023-2024 electric counts conflict, plausibly because of scope or data revisions [eluniverso_2024] [radio_history]. They are disclosed but excluded from the hard denominator. The official 2025 monthly and H1 2026 BEV series is the most internally consistent current anchor.

These are transparent compound-growth planning scenarios from the 9,733 documented BEV floor, not forecasts of registered stock. They exclude PHEV and vehicle retirements beyond the separate 98% survival assumption. Rebase after the active registration file is obtained.

AEADE publishes a national interactive charging map, while ARCONEL requires commercial charging providers to contract with the electricity distributor and operates a maximum-tariff framework [aeade_charging_map] [arconel_charging]. Neither source exposes a dated, auditable national public-point total. The charging count is therefore unknown, not zero.

INEC counted 3,138,562 registered motor vehicles in 2024, with 45.43% in Guayas and Pichincha [inec_transport] [inec_release]. No reviewed official source isolated active BEV/PHEV stock or BEV age. The plug-in cohort is demonstrably young from sales acceleration, so initial demand should centre on diagnosis, tyres, suspension/alignment, brakes, 12-V, HVAC, charging and used-EV battery reports.

The model begins with sourced BEV sales and labels every conversion as EVS assumption. TAM is a serviceable-pool model, not the national automotive aftermarket. SAM uses the 68.8% Pichincha+Guayas share of all H1 2026 new-vehicle sales as a location proxy and a 40% independent-reach assumption. Executable SOM remains zero until gates close.

Lead with high-trust, non-invasive diagnostics and wear items. PHEV owners are strategically relevant but not sized. Fleet work should be contracted around uptime and evidence, not discounted retail labour.

The H1 2026 model list is highly concentrated in fast-growing Chinese-origin platforms. BYD Yuan Pro led at 1,202 units, followed by BYD Seagull at 557 and Chevrolet Spark EUV at 540 [aeade_jun2026_pdf]. Tooling and data coverage should follow the top-20 observed model list rather than a generic “all makes” promise.

OEM/dealer workshops retain warranty, proprietary data and pack authority. Independent propositions already market EV/hybrid battery-health or service capability in Quito and Guayaquil [coky_motor] [autocentro_supremo] [autonation]. EVS must win on verified competence, insurer acceptance, transparent evidence reports and fleet SLAs.

Quito/Pichincha is the pilot market because it represented 41.0% of all new-vehicle sales in H1 2026; Guayaquil/Guayas represented 27.8%, Azuay 9.3%, Tungurahua 6.1% and Manabí 4.1% [aeade_jun2026_pdf]. These are demand proxies, not EV-specific regional shares.

Qualifying 100% electric vehicles receive zero-rate VAT and a USD 10 registration treatment; statutory definitions exclude vehicles with combustion-based self-generation, so PHEVs must not be claimed as eligible [aduana_zero_vat] [sri_ev_registration]. No direct national cash subsidy or workshop grant was evidenced.

Ecuador uses the US dollar. The model assumes normal tax treatment for services, tools, parts and workshop operations and no investment grant. Obtain written local advice on RUC activity codes, VAT credits, income tax, payroll, municipal patent and customs classification before contracting.

A Quito workshop requires entity/RUC readiness, compatible land use and LUAE approval for the exact mechanical, HV and charging activities. Quito classifies mechanical workshops as category II and may require inspections [quito_luae]. Environmental, fire, electrical and insurer acceptance are separate gates.

Ecuador’s Decree 255 creates mandatory occupational-safety duties, but the reviewed sources did not establish a nationally mandated EV-technician licence [labour_decree255]. EVS should therefore impose its own competency system: de-energise, isolate, lock/tag, verify absence of voltage, maintain calibrated tools, use a rescuer and quarantine compromised vehicles.

MAATE requires hazardous-waste generator registration where applicable and controls managers and transporters [maate_am026]. Separate REP routes exist for lead-acid batteries, tyres and oils [maate_bapu] [maate_nfu] [maate_oil]. None proves a damaged lithium traction-pack downstream chain; opened-pack work is excluded.

Launch only non-invasive, repeatable services with explicit model and warranty boundaries. The centre should sell evidence: scan records, battery-health limitations, torque records, photos, calibration traceability and customer consent.

Use an EVS-managed two-bay cell inside an audited Quito partner. Hold exclusivity and franchising. The partner provides compliant premises and base labour; EVS controls tools, training, SOPs, data, quality and customer evidence. Guayaquil follows through mobile triage or a second audited partner only after proof.

All economics are EVS assumptions in nominal USD, exclude financing and tax, and assume USD 80,000 launch capex. Base annual economics require 720 jobs at USD 250, 58% gross margin and USD 82,000 operating cost, producing USD 22,400 EBITDA and 3.57-year simple payback. The 90-day base break-even is 142 jobs; the launch target is 180.

The largest commercial risk is not EV adoption; it is converting rapid young-fleet growth into independent paid work before warranty expiry. The largest safety risk remains damaged traction batteries. Both are controlled through evidence gates and a deliberately narrow launch scope.

Days 0-45 close evidence, partner, licensing, technical-data, insurer and waste gaps. Days 46-60 commission the bay and drill emergency procedures. Days 61-90 run the paid pilot with stop authority. The clock pauses whenever a safety or licensing gate is not evidenced.

Every threshold is a decision control, not a forecast. Failing G1-G5 prevents launch. Failing G6 stops or redesigns the pilot. G7 and G8 protect EVS from prematurely building a standalone centre or franchising an unproven system.

Evidence was reviewed through 10 August 2026. The report prioritises primary and authoritative sources, preserves unavailable values as unknown, reconciles conflicting definitions, and uses a conservative 2025-H1 2026 BEV floor. It is a market-entry decision model, not legal, tax, engineering or investment advice.

The package contains a structured source registry with publisher, link, publication date where available, access date and notes. Quantitative claims in the narrative and datasets point to those identifiers. EVS assumptions are separately identified in the model source.

Ecuador has crossed from “watch” to “prepare”: H1 2026 BEV sales exceeded the entire official monthly 2025 sum. It has not crossed to greenfield-build or franchise readiness. Close the active-stock, PHEV, demand, premises, technical-data, insurance and traction-pack gates, then test Quito reversibly.