Peru

Authorise up to 45 days of evidence and partner diligence. Do not sign a long lease, grant territory, place the PEN 120,000 tooling order or take custody of vehicles until gates G1-G5 pass. If they pass, release a capped 90-day pilot targeting 90 paid jobs, PEN 600+ average repair order, at least 55% gross margin and zero HV incidents.

Peru’s full 2025 electrified market reached 10,239 vehicles, but 8,925 were non-plug-in HEV/MHEV and are excluded from EVS plug-in sizing [gestion_2025]. The 2025 plug-in flow was 780 BEVs plus 534 PHEVs, or 1,314. Q1 2026 added 214 BEVs and 283 PHEVs [aap_q1_2026]. H1 2026 all-electrified sales accelerated to 8,285, but EVS does not infer a plug-in count from the June technology share [aap_h1_2026].

“Electrified” includes BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV in current AAP reporting. Only BEV and PHEV are externally rechargeable and form the core EVS service pool. Annual registrations are a flow, not active stock. The 3,425 figure is therefore a documented sales floor—not an official parc—and must be replaced by a SUNARP active VIN extract before capital release.

EVS compounds the 3,425-unit documented floor for five years at 15%, 25% and 35%. The resulting 2031 values are scenarios, not forecasts: they omit retirement, parallel imports, migration and policy shocks. No consumer subsidy is embedded.

Peru now has a national installation/operation rule and an IEC-aligned charging standard [minem_charging_rule] [produce_iec]. However, EVS found no current authoritative audited national public-charger total. A secondary early-2024 estimate of 65 public and 500 residential chargers is retained only as a dated baseline; the same source’s expectation of roughly 90 public chargers is not an observed result [gestion_charging].

Peru’s overall parc averages more than 14 years, while public/cargo vehicles average 22.5 years [aap_parc_age]. That supports a large conventional aftermarket but must not be misapplied to a young plug-in cohort. The more relevant leading indicators are the growing plug-in flow, a used market of 274,689 light-vehicle transactions in H1 2025 and the future need for defensible battery-health and pre-purchase reports [aap_used_2025].

The documented floor is 91 + 272 + 556 + 695 + 1,314 + 497 = 3,425 new BEVs/PHEVs sold from 2021 through Q1 2026 [aap_2021] [aap_2022] [aap_2023] [aap_2024] [gestion_2025] [aap_q1_2026]. EVS applies 97% active survival, 1.25 paid events per active vehicle and PEN 650 per order. It then applies 90% Lima/Callao concentration—conservative relative to “more than 90%”—and 40% independent reach [aap_lima].

The first revenue pool is retail owners, used-vehicle channels and small fleets needing uptime rather than complex pack repair. PHEVs are important because they combine HV, charging and combustion-system needs. Customer acquisition must be based on paid-anchor evidence, not the headline all-electrified number.

A secondary transcription of AAP/SUNARP 2025 tables identifies Volvo and BYD as the two largest BEV brands and BYD and Volvo as the two largest PHEV brands [aap_brands_2025]. BYD Yuan UP was reported as the leading BEV through July 2025; Song Pro and Shark were among leading PHEVs [byd_models]. EVS must validate the active model-year mix before buying diagnostic subscriptions.

OEM workshops hold the warranty, software and genuine-parts advantage. Volvo evidences workshops in La Molina and Arequipa [volvo_service]. Bosch Car Service states that its Peruvian network serves electric and hybrid vehicles across several cities, but EVS must audit actual site-level HV competency rather than infer it from network branding [bosch_peru].

Lima/Callao is the only sensible first market because more than 90% of electrified sales were reported in Lima [aap_lima]. Arequipa is the first spoke candidate; Trujillo, Cusco and the northern corridor remain evidence-led options. No provincial site should precede an active-registration and charger audit.

The base case assumes no direct purchase subsidy and no broad EV tax exemption. AAP reported no large-scale direct subsidies, tax exemptions or procurement policy in Q1 2026 [aap_incentives]. A 2022 MINEM proposal is not an enacted benefit [minem_proposal]. The reviewed special 50% depreciation regime covered eligible acquisitions in 2023-2024 and is not applied to a new 2026 vehicle or workshop investment [mef_depreciation].

EVS models normal tax treatment: 18% IGV and, where the general regime applies, 29.5% corporate income tax [sunat_igv] [sunat_income]. Import tariff, ISC and IGV depend on classification; a written customs opinion is required and no blanket EV exemption is assumed [sunat_import].

A local operating entity needs SUNARP constitution and an active RUC [company_ruc]. The municipality determines zoning, compatibility, risk level, ITSE sequence and licence; high/very-high-risk premises require prior ITSE and the certificate is renewed every two years [license_itse]. EVS must obtain the ruling for the exact workshop, charger, storage and quarantine configuration.

Law 29783 supplies the occupational-safety backbone [sst_law]. It is not an EV-specific competence certificate, so EVS adds a hard internal scheme: two assessed HV technicians, an independent rescuer, lock/tag/verify-absence-of-voltage, calibrated instruments, quarantine and insurer-accepted emergency response. Charging installation must align with DS 036-2023-EM and NTP-IEC 61851-1 [minem_charging_rule] [produce_iec].

Legislative Decree 1278 and its regulation govern integrated solid-waste management [waste_law] [waste_reg]. SIGERSOL supports non-municipal declarations and hazardous-waste manifests [sigersol]. The NFU regime requires controlled tyre routes [nfu_rule] [nfu_2026]. Because the reviewed sources do not establish an available local traction-pack treatment chain, EVS launch scope excludes opening damaged or end-of-life packs.

Launch with non-invasive diagnosis, inspections, tyres/alignment, brakes, suspension, 12-V systems, HVAC/thermal checks, charging triage and read-only battery-health reporting. Sealed-component replacement is a later gate. Opened-pack module or cell work is prohibited.

Use an EVS-managed capability cell within an audited Lima/Callao partner. The partner provides a compliant bay and base labour; EVS controls SOPs, tools, training, data, pricing guardrails and quality. Use a non-exclusive revenue-share agreement with termination and audit rights. Do not franchise until two sites have repeatable profitable evidence.

The PEN 120,000 cap is an EVS assumption for reversible tooling, training and commissioning—not a supplier quote. Base annual economics are 360 jobs x PEN 650 = PEN 234,000 revenue; at 58% gross margin and PEN 100,000 operating cost, EBITDA is PEN 35,720 and simple payback is 3.36 years. The cautious case loses money, so anchors and stop rules are essential.

The dominant commercial risks are under-utilisation and dealer capture; the dominant safety/legal risks are HV exposure, fire, warranty interference and absent battery downstream. The design response is a low-fixed-cost partner bay, strict scope control, evidence gates and stop authority.

The first 45 days are diligence, not operations. Commissioning begins only after G1-G5 pass. The 90 paid-job operating clock begins after the bay, insurer, competence, data and waste controls are accepted.

A gate fails if evidence is missing; “in progress” is not a pass. Any HV incident, battery thermal event, material warranty breach or inability to evidence waste handover immediately stops the pilot.

This report prioritises Peru government and AAP/SUNARP-linked evidence available by 10 August 2026. It separates facts from EVS assumptions, reconciles technology and time definitions, and leaves unavailable statistics unknown. The largest uncertainty is active BEV/PHEV stock by location/model; the current charger total and damaged-pack downstream are also unresolved.

Every external source includes its publication date where available and the common access date. Secondary sources are labelled. Quantitative operating assumptions are carried in the model tables and are not presented as market facts.

Proceed only to evidence gathering. If G1-G5 pass, run the one-bay Lima/Callao pilot. If the active pool is below 2,800 in Lima/Callao, paid anchors are below 75 jobs/quarter, insurer or municipality rejects the configuration, top-model coverage is below 80%, or waste/downstream evidence is missing, stop. A standalone centre and franchise remain on hold until G7 and G8 pass.