Argentina.

Do not commit to a full workshop yet. Run a company-controlled Greater Buenos Aires north-west validation hub using leased bays/mobile triage. The minimum visible plug-in service floor is 5,769 vehicles: 1,909 BEV/PHEVs registered in 2025 plus 3,860 BEVs in H1 2026 [acara_2025] [acara_h1_2026]. It deliberately excludes older stock and 2026 PHEVs; a current DNRPA extract is the first investment gate.

Argentina is moving from a tiny base into a rapid product-inflow cycle, led by low-duty imports and Chinese brands. That creates importer PDI, battery evidence, fleet and insurer demand before it creates a mature retail aftermarket. EVS should buy information and contracts first, not real estate.

• 2025 registered 1,258 BEVs and 651 PHEVs [acara_2025].
• H1 2026 registered 3,860 BEVs, 1.31% of 294,181 total light vehicles [acara_h1_2026] [acara_market].
• The 2026 duty-free quota covers 50,000 vehicles and 71 models, but includes HEV/MHEV and is not a sales forecast [quota2026].
• The national charging register was repealed in January 2025; no current official connector count was located [charging_dereg].

“Electrified” totals combine BEV, PHEV, HEV and MHEV. EVS includes only externally chargeable BEV/PHEV in its core market. The 5,769 denominator is a conservative non-overlapping flow floor—not active stock—and cannot be interpreted as parc. Q1 PHEV mix is shown directionally but excluded from sizing because the H1 split was not found.

Comparable stock history is unavailable. Registration evidence shows an inflection: 2025 plug-ins totalled 1,909, while H1 2026 BEVs alone reached 3,860. Older vehicles and H1 PHEVs mean the true active pool is higher, but EVS will not invent it.

BEV volume rose sharply after tariff reform. BYD dominated H1 2026, led by Dolphin Mini and Yuan Pro [acara_models]. Broad hybrid totals are commercially relevant but excluded from the plug-in service denominator.

These are EVS capacity scenarios applied to the conservative 5,769 floor, not forecasts from government or industry. They are intentionally sensitivity bands; every case must be rebased to registry stock before investment.

The repeal of the mandatory national register reduced one administrative burden but removed a dependable public census [charging_dereg]. EVS should map operational sites in GBA and focus on vehicle-side AC/DC fault diagnosis; fixed installations stay with competent electrical partners.

The visible plug-in cohort is young and warranty-heavy. Early demand therefore concentrates in PDI, software/12V issues, tyres, alignment, collision isolation, charging faults and evidence products. Exact age-by-platform data is a DNRPA gate.

Do not assume ICE maintenance spend transfers to EVs. Build utilisation through importer and fleet SLAs, used-EV certificates, wear work and insurer referrals; add deeper thermal or pack work only after observed fault volume and lawful tool access.

The model applies a 52% annual paid-event incidence and ARS 520,000 average spend to the 5,769 floor, then 35% independent eligibility and 70% single-hub reach. All four are EVS assumptions. Nominal ARS economics must be repriced monthly.

Included: the conservative recent BEV/PHEV floor. Excluded: HEV/MHEV, older unquantified plug-ins, 2026 PHEVs without a comparable H1 count, buses, motorcycles, captive warranty work and charger-installation revenue.

Importer/dealer channels come first because new brands need PDI, evidence and overflow support. Fleets and insurers follow. Retail acquisition begins after repeatable coverage is proven.

H1 2026 BEVs were led by BYD Dolphin Mini (2,178) and Yuan Pro (708), followed by Chevrolet Spark, BAIC EU5 and JMEV Easy 3 [acara_models]. BYD Song Pro anchors the emerging PHEV cohort.

OEM networks control warranty, software and parts. Bosch Car Service and Neumen provide multi-brand reach in adjacent services. EVS differentiation is audited cross-brand safety, independent battery evidence, importer SLAs and custody discipline—not discount labour.

Choose north-west Greater Buenos Aires for importer access, industrial premises and motorway coverage. Córdoba is the strongest second-market option because a public utility is already planning around plug-in growth [epec].

The principal national lever is the zero extra-zone duty quota for qualifying sub-USD16,000 FOB vehicles [decree49]. No general cash purchase subsidy is assumed; provincial registration or vehicle-tax benefits must be verified individually.

The duty regime accelerates customer supply but is not an EVS capital subsidy. The base case assumes no grant, tax holiday or subsidised loan. Any provincial support is upside only.

Model pricing is pre-VAT; Argentina’s general VAT rate is 21% [vat]. Corporate income tax, provincial gross-receipts tax, payroll, withholding, import treatment and FX rules require current advice. ARS figures are illustrative and must be indexed.

Use a small company-controlled technical team with documented role competence, ART coverage and formal training. Outsourcing does not remove workplace-safety responsibility [osh]. Staff deep-pack work only after demand and certification gates.

No national workshop-specific EV high-voltage licence was located. That is a risk, not permission: obtain written counsel, define authorised roles, and meet local zoning, fire, electrical and environmental requirements before opening.

Require identify–isolate–prove dead–lock/tag–verify–rescue procedures, insulated tools/PPE, two-person escalation, controlled keys and evidence logs. Unsupported energised work and pack opening remain prohibited.

Law 24,051 can apply to hazardous-waste generation, transport and treatment in national/interjurisdictional cases [haz_waste]; provinces add their own regimes. Contract a licensed chain and approve damaged-battery quarantine before accepting vehicles.

Refrigerant handling, pressure equipment and electrical heat-pump work require competent personnel, recovery equipment and current environmental/technical advice. Do not assume European F-gas credentials map automatically.

Provide written scope, estimate, parts provenance, limitations and warranty. Preserve OEM warranty boundaries and obtain consent for telematics/diagnostic data under consumer and personal-data law [consumer] [data].

Start company-controlled and asset-light. Franchise only after 12 months of audited safety, first-time-fix, comeback, margin and demand evidence. Local contracts need territory, FX/indexation, training, audit, data and termination provisions.

Launch with evidence, PDI, vehicle-side charging/thermal/12V diagnostics, wear services, mobile fleet support and collision isolation. Hold pack opening, module repair and unsupported programming behind a separate gate.

Use two bays plus a quarantine-adjacent safe area, mobile triage, appointment-only intake and low parts inventory. Price in indexed ARS, collect deposits for imported parts and publish a green/amber/red platform matrix.

The illustrative base case is 900 annual orders at ARS 550,000, 55% gross margin and ARS 250m fixed cost, producing ARS 22.25m EBITDA. This narrow margin reinforces the asset-light recommendation and monthly repricing requirement.

The primary risks are denominator uncertainty, mixed hybrid definitions, FX/inflation, policy change, warranty captivity, tool access and battery/fire liability. Each has a pre-lease gate.

The first month buys evidence: registry data, interviews, platform tests and legal opinions. The second runs paid mobile trials and secures LOIs. The third rebases economics and approves only an asset-light pilot if all gates pass.

No lease until registry, demand, platform, HV/legal, waste/fire and site gates pass. Defer if the verified reachable pool is below 4,500, contracted demand is below 45 monthly jobs or base EBITDA is not positive after repricing.

What is the active BEV/PHEV parc by postcode and model year? Which importer tools and parts are contractually accessible? What local fire authority will accept the quarantine design? Which fleets will sign paid SLAs?

Primary policy and legal sources were preferred; industry registration data were used through attributed public reproductions where ACARA files were not directly indexed. Definitions were reconciled before modelling. Facts, reported estimates and EVS assumptions are labelled separately; no missing active-stock statistic was invented.

The active plug-in parc, public charger count and age distribution were not located in a current official extract. The sizing denominator is therefore a conservative floor. Inflation, tax and policy change rapidly; obtain dated advice immediately before commitment.

The linked registry below records publication and access dates, definition notes and authority. Quantitative claims resolve to source IDs; EVS forecasts and economics resolve to the model source.

Defer a greenfield centre; conditional go to an asset-light, company-controlled GBA validation pilot. Convert only after a current registry extract, 45 monthly contracted jobs, safe coverage of 70% of the reachable cohort and all legal/site gates pass.