California
EVS California EV Service Centre Market Entry
Decision-grade state market-entry report for an EVS electric-vehicle service-centre model in California.
2025 registered light-duty BEV+PHEV stock.
Q2 2026 new ZEV flow.
Public and shared private ports.
EVS base simple-payback sensitivity.
The verdict in full
California merits a controlled validation hub, but not an immediate statewide franchise offer.
Decision dashboard
The installed plug-in base is large; verified independent reach and executable SOM remain gated.
Decision dashboard
| Metric | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Registered BEV stock—2025 | 1,843,100 | vehicles | [afdc_ca] |
| Registered PHEV stock—2025 | 490,900 | vehicles | [afdc_ca] |
| Registered plug-in pool—2025 | 2,334,000 | vehicles | BEV + PHEV [afdc_ca] |
| Q2 2026 new ZEV sales | 86,857 | vehicles | [cec_q2_2026] |
| Public/shared charging ports | 216,445 | ports | [cec_chargers_2026] |
| Executable SOM | 0 | jobs/year | [evs_model] |
- Value
- 1,843,100
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [afdc_ca]
- Value
- 490,900
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [afdc_ca]
- Value
- 2,334,000
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- BEV + PHEV [afdc_ca]
- Value
- 86,857
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q2_2026]
- Value
- 216,445
- Unit
- ports
- Source
- [cec_chargers_2026]
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- jobs/year
- Source
- [evs_model]
Registered BEV/PHEV stock
DOE/AFDC stock is the installed-base anchor and stays separate from cumulative sales.
Registered BEV/PHEV stock
| Year | Bev | Phev | Plug In Total | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,024 | 1,533,900 | 447,100 | 1,981,000 | [afdc_ca] |
| 2,025 | 1,843,100 | 490,900 | 2,334,000 | [afdc_ca] |
- Bev
- 1,533,900
- Phev
- 447,100
- Plug In Total
- 1,981,000
- Source
- [afdc_ca]
- Bev
- 1,843,100
- Phev
- 490,900
- Plug In Total
- 2,334,000
- Source
- [afdc_ca]
Adoption history
Quarterly flows show scale and volatility around incentive timing.
Adoption history
| Period | Metric | Value | Unit | Source | Share Pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Plug-ins as share of light-duty registrations | 4.3 | % | [doe_fotw] | — |
| 2024 Q4 | New ZEV sales | 108,303 | vehicles | [cec_q4_2024] | 25.1 |
| 2025 Q1 | New ZEV sales | 100,326 | vehicles | [cec_q1_2025] | 23 |
| 2025 Q2 | New ZEV sales | 100,671 | vehicles | [cec_q2_2025] | 21.6 |
| 2025 Q3 | New ZEV sales | 124,755 | vehicles | [cec_q3_2025] | 29.1 |
| 2025 Q4 | New ZEV sales | 79,066 | vehicles | [cec_q4_2025] | 18.9 |
| 2026 Q2 | New ZEV sales | 86,857 | vehicles | [cec_q2_2026] | 19.1 |
- Metric
- Plug-ins as share of light-duty registrations
- Value
- 4.3
- Unit
- %
- Source
- [doe_fotw]
- Share Pct
- —
- Metric
- New ZEV sales
- Value
- 108,303
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q4_2024]
- Share Pct
- 25.1
- Metric
- New ZEV sales
- Value
- 100,326
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q1_2025]
- Share Pct
- 23
- Metric
- New ZEV sales
- Value
- 100,671
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q2_2025]
- Share Pct
- 21.6
- Metric
- New ZEV sales
- Value
- 124,755
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q3_2025]
- Share Pct
- 29.1
- Metric
- New ZEV sales
- Value
- 79,066
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q4_2025]
- Share Pct
- 18.9
- Metric
- New ZEV sales
- Value
- 86,857
- Unit
- vehicles
- Source
- [cec_q2_2026]
- Share Pct
- 19.1
Q2 2026 powertrain mix
BEVs dominated the latest CEC new-ZEV flow.
Q2 2026 powertrain mix
| Powertrain | Sales | Share Of New Sales Pct | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEV | 75,597 | 16.6 | [cec_q2_2026] |
| PHEV | 11,179 | — | [cec_q2_2026] |
| FCEV | 81 | — | [cec_q2_2026] |
- Sales
- 75,597
- Share Of New Sales Pct
- 16.6
- Source
- [cec_q2_2026]
- Sales
- 11,179
- Share Of New Sales Pct
- —
- Source
- [cec_q2_2026]
- Sales
- 81
- Share Of New Sales Pct
- —
- Source
- [cec_q2_2026]
Definition reconciliation
The report preserves different data universes.
Definition reconciliation
| Term | Definition | Control |
|---|---|---|
| AFDC registered stock | 2025 light-duty vehicles registered by fuel from TransAtlas/Experian. | Use BEV+PHEV for installed plug-in pool; do not merge with cumulative sales [afdc_ca]. |
| CEC new ZEV sales | Quarterly new BEV/PHEV/FCEV sales under CEC definitions. | Flow, not active stock [cec_q2_2026]. |
| CNCDA registration share | Experian new retail registration series excluding fleet in cited year-end release. | Different universe/quarter from CEC; retain separately [cncda_q4_2025]. |
| Cumulative ZEV sales | New ZEVs sold cumulatively, including vehicles that may leave or exit the parc. | Not stock; 2,702,646 through mid-2026 [cec_q2_2026]. |
| DMV all vehicles | All California registered vehicles across DMV universe. | Do not divide AFDC light-duty fuel counts by DMV total [dmv_stats]. |
| Charging port | Individual connector/port; CEC includes public and shared private. | Do not call station/site or assume uptime [cec_chargers_2026]. |
- Definition
- 2025 light-duty vehicles registered by fuel from TransAtlas/Experian.
- Control
- Use BEV+PHEV for installed plug-in pool; do not merge with cumulative sales [afdc_ca].
- Definition
- Quarterly new BEV/PHEV/FCEV sales under CEC definitions.
- Control
- Flow, not active stock [cec_q2_2026].
- Definition
- Experian new retail registration series excluding fleet in cited year-end release.
- Control
- Different universe/quarter from CEC; retain separately [cncda_q4_2025].
- Definition
- New ZEVs sold cumulatively, including vehicles that may leave or exit the parc.
- Control
- Not stock; 2,702,646 through mid-2026 [cec_q2_2026].
- Definition
- All California registered vehicles across DMV universe.
- Control
- Do not divide AFDC light-duty fuel counts by DMV total [dmv_stats].
- Definition
- Individual connector/port; CEC includes public and shared private.
- Control
- Do not call station/site or assume uptime [cec_chargers_2026].
2030 stock sensitivities
These are EVS growth cases, not an official forecast.
2030 stock sensitivities
| Scenario | Annual Growth Pct | Modelled 2030 Registered Plug Ins | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 8 | 3,429,412 | EVS sensitivity from DOE/AFDC 2025 registered BEV+PHEV stock; not an official forecast. |
| Base | 12 | 4,113,305 | EVS sensitivity from DOE/AFDC 2025 registered BEV+PHEV stock; not an official forecast. |
| High | 18 | 5,339,627 | EVS sensitivity from DOE/AFDC 2025 registered BEV+PHEV stock; not an official forecast. |
- Annual Growth Pct
- 8
- Modelled 2030 Registered Plug Ins
- 3,429,412
- Basis
- EVS sensitivity from DOE/AFDC 2025 registered BEV+PHEV stock; not an official forecast.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 12
- Modelled 2030 Registered Plug Ins
- 4,113,305
- Basis
- EVS sensitivity from DOE/AFDC 2025 registered BEV+PHEV stock; not an official forecast.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 18
- Modelled 2030 Registered Plug Ins
- 5,339,627
- Basis
- EVS sensitivity from DOE/AFDC 2025 registered BEV+PHEV stock; not an official forecast.
Charging infrastructure
Ports grew rapidly, with a documented methodology change.
Charging infrastructure
| As Of | Public Shared Ports | Dc Fast Ports | Home Chargers Estimate | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 year-end | 178,549 | 16,971 | 700,000 | [cec_chargers_2024] |
| September 2025 | 201,180 | — | 800,000 | [cec_chargers_2025] |
| July 2026 | 216,445 | >20,000 | 800,000 | [cec_chargers_2026] |
- Public Shared Ports
- 178,549
- Dc Fast Ports
- 16,971
- Home Chargers Estimate
- 700,000
- Source
- [cec_chargers_2024]
- Public Shared Ports
- 201,180
- Dc Fast Ports
- —
- Home Chargers Estimate
- 800,000
- Source
- [cec_chargers_2025]
- Public Shared Ports
- 216,445
- Dc Fast Ports
- >20,000
- Home Chargers Estimate
- 800,000
- Source
- [cec_chargers_2026]
Charger regulation
Reliability regulation creates compliance and service-adjacent demand, not automatic EVS revenue.
Charger regulation
| Requirement | Scope | Effective | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 97% uptime | Certain publicly funded DC fast ports installed on/after 1 Jan 2024 | Per regulation applicability | [cec_reliability] |
| Semiannual reliability reporting | Applicable DCFC | First period Jul–Dec 2026 due 31 Jan 2027 | [cec_reliability] |
- Scope
- Certain publicly funded DC fast ports installed on/after 1 Jan 2024
- Effective
- Per regulation applicability
- Source
- [cec_reliability]
- Scope
- Applicable DCFC
- Effective
- First period Jul–Dec 2026 due 31 Jan 2027
- Source
- [cec_reliability]
Parc age and service demand
California EV-specific age/failure evidence remains a gating request.
Parc age and service demand
| Evidence | Confidence | Decision Use |
|---|---|---|
| Registered plug-in pool grew from 1,981,000 in 2024 to 2,334,000 in 2025. | High for AFDC universe | Expanding installed base supports routine and post-warranty pipeline [afdc_ca]. |
| U.S. light-vehicle average age was 12.8 years in 2025. | National benchmark only | Do not substitute for California EV age; request model-year/VIN extract [sp_age]. |
| California EV model-year, odometer, warranty and failure distribution. | Unavailable in cited snapshot | No failure rate or post-warranty statistic is invented. |
| Tesla registrations fell while non-Tesla EV registrations grew in Q1 2025. | CEC directional evidence | Multi-brand diagnostic coverage is strategic [cec_q1_2025]. |
- Confidence
- High for AFDC universe
- Decision Use
- Expanding installed base supports routine and post-warranty pipeline [afdc_ca].
- Confidence
- National benchmark only
- Decision Use
- Do not substitute for California EV age; request model-year/VIN extract [sp_age].
- Confidence
- Unavailable in cited snapshot
- Decision Use
- No failure rate or post-warranty statistic is invented.
- Confidence
- CEC directional evidence
- Decision Use
- Multi-brand diagnostic coverage is strategic [cec_q1_2025].
TAM / SAM / SOM
Only TAM is sourced; modelled layers are explicitly assumptions.
TAM / SAM / SOM
| Layer | Value | Unit | Basis | Classification |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM—registered plug-in stock | 2,334,000 | BEV+PHEV vehicles | 2025 AFDC registrations. | Sourced [afdc_ca]. |
| Service-window sensitivity | 816,900 | vehicles | TAM × 35%. | EVS assumption; age/warranty proxy [evs_model]. |
| Independent-consideration sensitivity | 204,225 | vehicles | Service-window × 25%. | EVS assumption [evs_model]. |
- Value
- 2,334,000
- Unit
- BEV+PHEV vehicles
- Basis
- 2025 AFDC registrations.
- Classification
- Sourced [afdc_ca].
- Value
- 816,900
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- TAM × 35%.
- Classification
- EVS assumption; age/warranty proxy [evs_model].
- Value
- 204,225
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- Service-window × 25%.
- Classification
- EVS assumption [evs_model].
Customer segments
Post-warranty owners, fleets and used-EV channels lead.
Customer segments
| Priority | Segment | Need | Proof |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Out-of-warranty Tesla owners | Transparent diagnostics, suspension, HVAC/thermal, low-voltage, charging and battery-health triage | Paid bookings by VIN/task. |
| 2 | Multi-brand BEV/PHEV owners | Independent condition reports and supported repair pathways | Supported VIN/task coverage ≥80% of booked demand. |
| 3 | Ride-hail, delivery and corporate fleets | Uptime SLAs, inspections, tyres/brakes/suspension and triage | Three LOIs covering ≥250 vehicles. |
| 4 | Used-EV buyers/dealers | Battery health and pre-purchase evidence | Dealer contract and standard report acceptance. |
| 5 | Charge-point operators | Vehicle-side incident triage and referral | Separate service agreement; avoid regulated uptime claims. |
- Segment
- Out-of-warranty Tesla owners
- Need
- Transparent diagnostics, suspension, HVAC/thermal, low-voltage, charging and battery-health triage
- Proof
- Paid bookings by VIN/task.
- Segment
- Multi-brand BEV/PHEV owners
- Need
- Independent condition reports and supported repair pathways
- Proof
- Supported VIN/task coverage ≥80% of booked demand.
- Segment
- Ride-hail, delivery and corporate fleets
- Need
- Uptime SLAs, inspections, tyres/brakes/suspension and triage
- Proof
- Three LOIs covering ≥250 vehicles.
- Segment
- Used-EV buyers/dealers
- Need
- Battery health and pre-purchase evidence
- Proof
- Dealer contract and standard report acceptance.
- Segment
- Charge-point operators
- Need
- Vehicle-side incident triage and referral
- Proof
- Separate service agreement; avoid regulated uptime claims.
Fleet segments
Fleet uptime can anchor volume only with signed demand.
Fleet segments
| Segment | Opportunity | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Ride-hail / delivery | High-utilisation wear and downtime | No fleet count assumed; require LOIs and VIN list. |
| Municipal / state fleets | Structured inspection and uptime | Procurement and ACF applicability must be confirmed [emfac_acf]. |
| Rental / remarketing | Condition and battery-health reports | OEM data access and liability boundary. |
| Heavy-duty ZEV | Growing but separate | Exclude from light-duty launch; facility/equipment/economics differ. |
- Opportunity
- High-utilisation wear and downtime
- Control
- No fleet count assumed; require LOIs and VIN list.
- Opportunity
- Structured inspection and uptime
- Control
- Procurement and ACF applicability must be confirmed [emfac_acf].
- Opportunity
- Condition and battery-health reports
- Control
- OEM data access and liability boundary.
- Opportunity
- Growing but separate
- Control
- Exclude from light-duty launch; facility/equipment/economics differ.
Leading brands and models
Tesla remains a scale platform while multi-brand capability grows in importance.
Leading brands and models
| Brand Model | Evidence | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla Model Y | 110,120 California registrations in 2025; top-selling model overall | Core launch platform after task-rights validation [cncda_q4_2025]. |
| Tesla Model 3 | 31,394 registrations in H1 2025 | Core platform signal [cncda_q2_2025]. |
| Honda Prologue and diversified non-Tesla EVs | Q1 2025 ranking/diversification evidence | Build multi-brand coverage; no invented volume beyond cited report [cncda_q1_2025][cec_q1_2025]. |
| Rivian / Lucid / Ford / GM / Hyundai-Kia / VW / BMW / Nissan | Market availability and competitor service scope | Add only when OEM procedures, parts, scan and liability rights are proven. |
- Evidence
- 110,120 California registrations in 2025; top-selling model overall
- Use
- Core launch platform after task-rights validation [cncda_q4_2025].
- Evidence
- 31,394 registrations in H1 2025
- Use
- Core platform signal [cncda_q2_2025].
- Evidence
- Q1 2025 ranking/diversification evidence
- Use
- Build multi-brand coverage; no invented volume beyond cited report [cncda_q1_2025][cec_q1_2025].
- Evidence
- Market availability and competitor service scope
- Use
- Add only when OEM procedures, parts, scan and liability rights are proven.
OEM competitors
OEM service owns warranty, recall and proprietary access.
OEM competitors
| Category | Strength | EVS Response |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla direct service/mobile | Installed base, OEM software, warranty and recall authority | Post-warranty transparency, supported tasks and referral boundary. |
| Franchised dealer networks | OEM procedures, parts, warranties and certifications | Multi-brand independent convenience; never imply OEM authorisation. |
- Strength
- Installed base, OEM software, warranty and recall authority
- EVS Response
- Post-warranty transparency, supported tasks and referral boundary.
- Strength
- OEM procedures, parts, warranties and certifications
- EVS Response
- Multi-brand independent convenience; never imply OEM authorisation.
Independent competitors
California already has capable EV specialists.
Independent competitors
| Competitor | Region | Scope | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earthling Automotive | San Francisco Bay Area | EV/hybrid service and training | [earthling] |
| EV Reviver | Orange County / Southern California | Tesla HV battery and drive-unit work | [evreviver] |
- Region
- San Francisco Bay Area
- Scope
- EV/hybrid service and training
- Source
- [earthling]
- Region
- Orange County / Southern California
- Scope
- Tesla HV battery and drive-unit work
- Source
- [evreviver]
Priority regions
Southern California is the first fixed-hub candidate; other regions stay variable-cost.
Priority regions
| Rank | Region | Score | Rationale | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greater Los Angeles / Orange County | 95 | Largest commercial catchment, dense EV population and active specialist competition. | Six-bay company-controlled validation hub; site chosen by geocoded VINs and lease/power/fire diligence. |
- Region
- Greater Los Angeles / Orange County
- Score
- 95
- Rationale
- Largest commercial catchment, dense EV population and active specialist competition.
- Entry
- Six-bay company-controlled validation hub; site chosen by geocoded VINs and lease/power/fire diligence.
Consumer incentives
Use only current, eligibility-checked programme terms.
Consumer incentives
| Measure | Value | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| MyFirstEV—new BEV | $3,500 | Announced for first-time ZEV buyers; verify live application and dealer participation before quoting | [myfirstev_cec][myfirstev_gov] |
| MyFirstEV—used EV | $1,750 | Announced; used price cap $25,000 | [myfirstev_cec] |
- Value
- $3,500
- Status
- Announced for first-time ZEV buyers; verify live application and dealer participation before quoting
- Source
- [myfirstev_cec][myfirstev_gov]
- Value
- $1,750
- Status
- Announced; used price cap $25,000
- Source
- [myfirstev_cec]
Business incentives
No unawarded credit or financing benefit enters economics.
Business incentives
| Item | Status | Model Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| California Competes Tax Credit | Competitive; over $180m annual availability described | Zero until actual executed award [gobiz_cctc]. |
| Small Business Loan Guarantee / CalCAP | Eligibility-dependent financing routes | No subsidy assumed [calosba]. |
- Status
- Competitive; over $180m annual availability described
- Model Treatment
- Zero until actual executed award [gobiz_cctc].
- Status
- Eligibility-dependent financing routes
- Model Treatment
- No subsidy assumed [calosba].
Tax snapshot
Parts/labour treatment and address-specific district tax require configured invoicing.
Tax snapshot
| Tax | Rate | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Sales/use tax base | 7.25% statewide plus district rates | Address-specific lookup; parts generally taxable [cdtfa_rates][cdtfa_auto]. |
| Repair labour | Generally non-taxable when separately itemised | Fabrication/new-vehicle installation exceptions [cdtfa_auto]. |
- Rate
- 7.25% statewide plus district rates
- Treatment
- Address-specific lookup; parts generally taxable [cdtfa_rates][cdtfa_auto].
- Rate
- Generally non-taxable when separately itemised
- Treatment
- Fabrication/new-vehicle installation exceptions [cdtfa_auto].
Entity, workshop and franchise licensing
BAR and DFPI controls are launch-critical.
Entity, workshop and franchise licensing
| Area | Requirement | Gate Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Repair Dealer | Required for paid diagnosis, service or repair; $200 application and annual renewal. | Issued/displayed BAR registration [bar_apply]. |
| Customer documentation | Estimate and authorization before work; changes authorized; final invoice; records ≥3 years. | Audited workflow [bar_wir]. |
- Requirement
- Required for paid diagnosis, service or repair; $200 application and annual renewal.
- Gate Evidence
- Issued/displayed BAR registration [bar_apply].
- Requirement
- Estimate and authorization before work; changes authorized; final invoice; records ≥3 years.
- Gate Evidence
- Audited workflow [bar_wir].
Labour and competence
Legal wage compliance does not prove HV competence or realistic hiring cost.
Labour and competence
| Item | Requirement | Source | Launch Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| State wage floor | $16.90/hour from 1 Jan 2026; local rates may be higher | [dir_wage] | — |
| Technical lead | Manufacturer-procedure governance, QA, stop-work authority | — | 1 |
- Requirement
- $16.90/hour from 1 Jan 2026; local rates may be higher
- Source
- [dir_wage]
- Launch Count
- —
- Requirement
- Manufacturer-procedure governance, QA, stop-work authority
- Source
- —
- Launch Count
- 1
High-voltage safety
Task-specific manufacturer procedures and California hazardous-energy rules apply together.
High-voltage safety
| Control | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Supported VIN/task matrix | Manufacturer information, tools, scan rights, parts and stop-work triggers. |
| Isolation / LOTO | Identify all energy, shut down, lock/tag, wait, prove dead and independently verify [dir_loto][dir_elec]. |
| PPE/tools/bay | Rated, inspected equipment; dry restricted bay; key control; rescue equipment. |
| Competence | Practical observed assessment by model/task; generic ASE/electrical credentials alone are insufficient. |
| Thermal event | Fire-authority and insurer-reviewed quarantine, evacuation, cooling/monitoring and responder handoff. |
| Standards | ISO/UNECE inform procedures but do not replace California law or OEM instructions [iso6469][unr100]. |
- Requirement
- Manufacturer information, tools, scan rights, parts and stop-work triggers.
- Requirement
- Identify all energy, shut down, lock/tag, wait, prove dead and independently verify [dir_loto][dir_elec].
- Requirement
- Rated, inspected equipment; dry restricted bay; key control; rescue equipment.
- Requirement
- Practical observed assessment by model/task; generic ASE/electrical credentials alone are insufficient.
- Requirement
- Fire-authority and insurer-reviewed quarantine, evacuation, cooling/monitoring and responder handoff.
- Requirement
- ISO/UNECE inform procedures but do not replace California law or OEM instructions [iso6469][unr100].
Battery and waste
Pack work stays held until the full chain is approved.
Battery and waste
| Activity | Launch | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Non-invasive battery health / external inspection | CONDITIONAL | Supported method, isolation, data consent and no damaged-pack custody. |
| 12V batteries / routine hazardous wastes | CONDITIONAL | Waste determination, segregation, site ID/CUPA requirements and authorized recipient [dtsc_generators][dtsc_ids]. |
- Launch
- CONDITIONAL
- Evidence
- Supported method, isolation, data consent and no damaged-pack custody.
- Launch
- CONDITIONAL
- Evidence
- Waste determination, segregation, site ID/CUPA requirements and authorized recipient [dtsc_generators][dtsc_ids].
Consumer, data and warranty controls
BAR documentation and explicit independent-service boundaries are built into every transaction.
Consumer, data and warranty controls
| Control | Requirement |
|---|---|
| Estimate and authorization | BAR-compliant written/electronic estimate and recorded authorization before diagnosis or repair; reauthorize changes [bar_wir]. |
| Final invoice and records | Itemise parts and labour, disclose final work, and retain transaction records for at least three years [bar_wir][cdtfa_auto]. |
| Independent status | No implied OEM authorisation; state warranty, recall, software, parts and referral boundaries. |
| Vehicle and telemetry data | Purpose-limited consent, least privilege, credential isolation, secure export and retention/deletion schedule. |
| Battery-health report | Identify tool, timestamp, state conditions and uncertainty; no range, capacity, life or residual-value guarantee. |
| Cyber/software | No security bypass, credential sharing or unsupported flash/coding; preserve logs and rollback evidence. |
- Requirement
- BAR-compliant written/electronic estimate and recorded authorization before diagnosis or repair; reauthorize changes [bar_wir].
- Requirement
- Itemise parts and labour, disclose final work, and retain transaction records for at least three years [bar_wir][cdtfa_auto].
- Requirement
- No implied OEM authorisation; state warranty, recall, software, parts and referral boundaries.
- Requirement
- Purpose-limited consent, least privilege, credential isolation, secure export and retention/deletion schedule.
- Requirement
- Identify tool, timestamp, state conditions and uncertainty; no range, capacity, life or residual-value guarantee.
- Requirement
- No security bypass, credential sharing or unsupported flash/coding; preserve logs and rollback evidence.
Recommended services
Launch with evidence-rich, reversible services.
Recommended services
| Phase | Service | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Launch | Battery-health and pre-purchase reports | Non-invasive; explicit uncertainty and no residual-value guarantee. |
| Launch | Tyres, brakes, suspension, steering, low-voltage and cabin systems | Supported models/tasks; ADAS calibration excluded unless certified. |
| Launch | Scan/fault triage, charging diagnosis and thermal-system checks | No unauthorized coding, flashing or security bypass. |
| Launch | Fleet inspection and uptime SLA | Defined response/triage, not guaranteed repair time without parts. |
| Stage 2 | Contactor, insulation and cooling-loop diagnostics | Only after model/task proof and insurer approval. |
| Hold | Pack opening, module rebuild, damaged-pack custody | Prohibited until all written approvals. |
- Service
- Battery-health and pre-purchase reports
- Boundary
- Non-invasive; explicit uncertainty and no residual-value guarantee.
- Service
- Tyres, brakes, suspension, steering, low-voltage and cabin systems
- Boundary
- Supported models/tasks; ADAS calibration excluded unless certified.
- Service
- Scan/fault triage, charging diagnosis and thermal-system checks
- Boundary
- No unauthorized coding, flashing or security bypass.
- Service
- Fleet inspection and uptime SLA
- Boundary
- Defined response/triage, not guaranteed repair time without parts.
- Service
- Contactor, insulation and cooling-loop diagnostics
- Boundary
- Only after model/task proof and insurer approval.
- Service
- Pack opening, module rebuild, damaged-pack custody
- Boundary
- Prohibited until all written approvals.
Operating model
Company control precedes franchising.
Operating model
| Element | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Format | Company-controlled six-bay validation hub in Greater Los Angeles/Orange County; 12-month break/option, no franchise sale. |
| Capital | Cap reversible fit-out/tools/working capital at $650,000; rent specialized lifts/tools where viable. |
| Commercial | Paid diagnostics, fleet SLAs, dealer condition reports and transparent menu pricing. |
| Geography | Prepaid Bay Area, San Diego and Sacramento clinic days before any second lease. |
| Governance | Weekly safety/KPI review; monthly gate board; scope-stop authority independent of sales. |
- Recommendation
- Company-controlled six-bay validation hub in Greater Los Angeles/Orange County; 12-month break/option, no franchise sale.
- Recommendation
- Cap reversible fit-out/tools/working capital at $650,000; rent specialized lifts/tools where viable.
- Recommendation
- Paid diagnostics, fleet SLAs, dealer condition reports and transparent menu pricing.
- Recommendation
- Prepaid Bay Area, San Diego and Sacramento clinic days before any second lease.
- Recommendation
- Weekly safety/KPI review; monthly gate board; scope-stop authority independent of sales.
Franchise pathway
California franchise sales are deferred until repeatability and registration.
Franchise pathway
| Stage | Format | Term | Gate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Validate | EVS company-controlled hub | 90 days | G1–G5 | Recommended. |
| 1 Prove repeatability | One hub + mobile/partner clinics | Two positive quarters | Quality, margin and fleet renewal | Conditional. |
| 2 Prepare franchise | California FDD/registration, training, territory, audit and battery boundaries | After repeatability | Counsel and unit economics | Deferred. |
| 3 Sell franchise | One controlled franchise pilot | After DFPI effectiveness | Base payback ≤3 years and quality controls | No-go now. |
- Format
- EVS company-controlled hub
- Term
- 90 days
- Gate
- G1–G5
- Status
- Recommended.
- Format
- One hub + mobile/partner clinics
- Term
- Two positive quarters
- Gate
- Quality, margin and fleet renewal
- Status
- Conditional.
- Format
- California FDD/registration, training, territory, audit and battery boundaries
- Term
- After repeatability
- Gate
- Counsel and unit economics
- Status
- Deferred.
- Format
- One controlled franchise pilot
- Term
- After DFPI effectiveness
- Gate
- Base payback ≤3 years and quality controls
- Status
- No-go now.
Annual pilot-hub economics
Base case clears a three-year simple-payback threshold but remains an assumption.
Annual pilot-hub economics
| Scenario | Jobs | Aro Usd | Gross Margin Pct | Opex Usd | Revenue Usd | Gross Profit Usd | Ebitda Usd | Payback Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 1,800 | 425 | 55 | 600,000 | 765,000 | 420,750 | -179,250 | — |
- Jobs
- 1,800
- Aro Usd
- 425
- Gross Margin Pct
- 55
- Opex Usd
- 600,000
- Revenue Usd
- 765,000
- Gross Profit Usd
- 420,750
- Ebitda Usd
- -179,250
- Payback Years
- —
90-day economics
The base test is positive before tax/financing and must be proven in invoices.
90-day economics
| Scenario | Jobs 90d | Aro Usd | Gross Margin Pct | Opex Usd | Revenue Usd | Gross Profit Usd | Ebitda Usd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 350 | 425 | 55 | 210,000 | 148,750 | 81,812.5 | -128,187.5 |
- Jobs 90d
- 350
- Aro Usd
- 425
- Gross Margin Pct
- 55
- Opex Usd
- 210,000
- Revenue Usd
- 148,750
- Gross Profit Usd
- 81,812.5
- Ebitda Usd
- -128,187.5
Risk register
Warranty capture, access, costs, policy, battery and compliance dominate.
Risk register
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort is young/warranty-captured | High | High | Independent consideration below 25%. |
| OEM software/parts restrictions | High | High | Supported booked demand below 80%. |
| High California labour/occupancy costs | High | High | Base opex exceeds $1.05m. |
| Policy/incentive volatility | High | Medium | ZEV sales remain below 15% for two quarters. |
| Battery fire/waste liability | Medium | Severe | Any damaged pack without approved route. |
| Strong OEM/independent competitors | High | High | CAC/payback fails deposit test. |
| Franchise compliance misstep | Low | Severe | Offer/advertising before registration or exemption. |
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Trigger
- Independent consideration below 25%.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Trigger
- Supported booked demand below 80%.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Trigger
- Base opex exceeds $1.05m.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- Medium
- Trigger
- ZEV sales remain below 15% for two quarters.
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Severe
- Trigger
- Any damaged pack without approved route.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Trigger
- CAC/payback fails deposit test.
- Likelihood
- Low
- Impact
- Severe
- Trigger
- Offer/advertising before registration or exemption.
Mitigations
Every major risk has documentary evidence and an owner.
Mitigations
| Risk | Control | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| Denominator/demand | Geocode matched VIN/task cohorts and require deposits plus fleet LOIs. | Market lead |
| Capability | Supported matrix, practical assessments, tooling/data-right evidence and referrals. | Technical lead |
| Costs | Reversible lease, variable staffing and weekly cohort P&L. | Country P&L |
| Battery | No pack custody until signed fire/insurer/CUPA/carrier/recipient chain. | HSE lead |
| Consumer | BAR-compliant estimates, authorization, photo evidence, warranty boundaries and complaints workflow. | Operations |
| Franchise | No offer, fee or territory marketing until California counsel clears the route. | General counsel |
- Control
- Geocode matched VIN/task cohorts and require deposits plus fleet LOIs.
- Owner
- Market lead
- Control
- Supported matrix, practical assessments, tooling/data-right evidence and referrals.
- Owner
- Technical lead
- Control
- Reversible lease, variable staffing and weekly cohort P&L.
- Owner
- Country P&L
- Control
- No pack custody until signed fire/insurer/CUPA/carrier/recipient chain.
- Owner
- HSE lead
- Control
- BAR-compliant estimates, authorization, photo evidence, warranty boundaries and complaints workflow.
- Owner
- Operations
- Control
- No offer, fee or territory marketing until California counsel clears the route.
- Owner
- General counsel
90-day entry plan
The first half is denominator, demand, site and compliance work.
90-day entry plan
| Days | Action | Output | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | Purchase/geocode lawful VIN-level or model-year/ZIP evidence; map age, warranty, make/model and service rights. | Audited denominator and site heat map. | G1 |
- Action
- Purchase/geocode lawful VIN-level or model-year/ZIP evidence; map age, warranty, make/model and service rights.
- Output
- Audited denominator and site heat map.
- Gate
- G1
Go / no-go gates
All launch gates are open and franchise release is no-go.
Go / no-go gates
| Gate | Threshold | Status |
|---|---|---|
| G1 Data | ≥15,000 verified target plug-ins within service radius with age/warranty/model/task fields and no duplicate/inactive records | OPEN |
- Threshold
- ≥15,000 verified target plug-ins within service radius with age/warranty/model/task fields and no duplicate/inactive records
- Status
- OPEN
Methodology
Decision-grade means retaining uncertainty and refusing false precision.
Methodology
| Step | Method | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeze definitions | Stock, flow, registrations, sales, ZEV, BEV, PHEV, FCEV, port, station and site remain separate. |
| 2 | Prioritise current primary evidence | CEC, CARB, DMV, DOE, BAR, DTSC, DIR, DFPI, CDTFA and GO-Biz. |
| 3 | Retain conflicting universes | CEC and Experian/CNCDA differ by quarter and transaction universe; neither is overwritten. |
| 4 | Separate facts from assumptions | AFDC stock and CEC sales/ports are sourced; addressability, forecast and economics are EVS sensitivities. |
| 5 | Use gates instead of false precision | Verified SAM is null and executable SOM is zero until evidence passes. |
| 6 | Model nominal economics | USD, sales-tax exclusive, pre-tax, unlevered; no grants, credits or incentives assumed. |
- Method
- Freeze definitions
- Detail
- Stock, flow, registrations, sales, ZEV, BEV, PHEV, FCEV, port, station and site remain separate.
- Method
- Prioritise current primary evidence
- Detail
- CEC, CARB, DMV, DOE, BAR, DTSC, DIR, DFPI, CDTFA and GO-Biz.
- Method
- Retain conflicting universes
- Detail
- CEC and Experian/CNCDA differ by quarter and transaction universe; neither is overwritten.
- Method
- Separate facts from assumptions
- Detail
- AFDC stock and CEC sales/ports are sourced; addressability, forecast and economics are EVS sensitivities.
- Method
- Use gates instead of false precision
- Detail
- Verified SAM is null and executable SOM is zero until evidence passes.
- Method
- Model nominal economics
- Detail
- USD, sales-tax exclusive, pre-tax, unlevered; no grants, credits or incentives assumed.
Priority data requests
Seven evidence gaps can change the decision.
Priority data requests
| Priority | Gap | Owner | Decision Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Active plug-in stock by ZIP, model year, make/model, warranty and fleet/owner status | CEC/DMV/licensed data provider | Site and SAM. |
| 2 | Paid repair demand, frequency, ARO, CAC and parts delay by supported task | EVS field test | Economics. |
| 3 | OEM software, scan, parts, security and repair-information rights by VIN/task | Technical/legal | Service scope. |
| 4 | Exact-site rent, labour burden, power, fire, CUPA and insurance quotes | Local team | Capex/opex and launch. |
| 5 | California EV age/failure distribution | CEC/EMFAC/data provider | Service-window factor. |
| 6 | Damaged/intact pack carrier and final-recipient route | HSE/legal | Battery scope. |
| 7 | MyFirstEV live operational rules and dealer participation | Programme administrator | Demand timing only; not core economics. |
- Gap
- Active plug-in stock by ZIP, model year, make/model, warranty and fleet/owner status
- Owner
- CEC/DMV/licensed data provider
- Decision Effect
- Site and SAM.
- Gap
- Paid repair demand, frequency, ARO, CAC and parts delay by supported task
- Owner
- EVS field test
- Decision Effect
- Economics.
- Gap
- OEM software, scan, parts, security and repair-information rights by VIN/task
- Owner
- Technical/legal
- Decision Effect
- Service scope.
- Gap
- Exact-site rent, labour burden, power, fire, CUPA and insurance quotes
- Owner
- Local team
- Decision Effect
- Capex/opex and launch.
- Gap
- California EV age/failure distribution
- Owner
- CEC/EMFAC/data provider
- Decision Effect
- Service-window factor.
- Gap
- Damaged/intact pack carrier and final-recipient route
- Owner
- HSE/legal
- Decision Effect
- Battery scope.
- Gap
- MyFirstEV live operational rules and dealer participation
- Owner
- Programme administrator
- Decision Effect
- Demand timing only; not core economics.
Complete source register
Every source is linked, dated and classified.
Complete source register
| Source Id | Publisher | Publication Date | Accessed At | Classification | Url | Decision Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cec_q2_2026 | California Energy Commission | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-07/ev-sales-rebound-trumps-war-iran-rages | Q2 2026 ZEV sales, powertrain split, model availability, cumulative sales, chargers and infrastructure allocation. |
| cec_q4_2025 | California Energy Commission | 2026-01-20 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-01/california-surpasses-25-million-zev-sales | Q4 2025 ZEV sales/share, cumulative milestone, model availability, chargers and incentive context. |
| cec_q3_2025 | California Energy Commission | 2025-10-13 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-10/california-smashes-zev-sales-record-q3 | Q3 2025 ZEV and EV sales and charger regulation adoption. |
| cec_q2_2025 | California Energy Commission | 2025-07-31 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-07/over-100000-zevs-sold-california-second-quarter-2025 | Q2 2025 sales, share, model count and infrastructure. |
| cec_q1_2025 | California Energy Commission | 2025-05-16 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-05/california-zev-sales-hold-steady-start-2025 | Q1 2025 sales/share and Tesla/non-Tesla diversification. |
| cec_q4_2024 | California Energy Commission | 2025-01-31 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-01/californias-zev-momentum-rolls-2025 | Q4 2024 ZEV sales and share. |
| cec_data | California Energy Commission | 2026-07-17 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/files/zev-and-infrastructure-stats-data | Official data index for quarterly sales, shares, vehicle population and chargers; update dates retained. |
| afdc_ca | U.S. Department of Energy | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://afdc.energy.gov/states/ca | 2024 and 2025 light-duty registrations by fuel from TransAtlas/Experian. |
| doe_fotw | U.S. Department of Energy | 2024-06-03 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.gov/cmei/vehicles/articles/fotw-1345-june-3-2024-share-plug-vehicle-registrations-california-reached-43 | 2023 plug-in share of light-duty registrations. |
| dmv_stats | California Department of Motor Vehicles | 2026-01-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statistics/ | All registered vehicles total; not used as AFDC denominator because universes differ. |
| cec_chargers_2026 | California Energy Commission | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-07/ev-sales-rebound-trumps-war-iran-rages | 216,445 public/shared ports, over 20,000 DC fast ports and estimated 800,000 home chargers. |
| cec_chargers_2025 | California Energy Commission | 2025-09-24 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-09/california-exceeds-200000-electric-vehicle-chargers | 201,180 public/shared ports and definition. |
| cec_chargers_2024 | California Energy Commission | 2025-03-20 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-03/california-exceeds-178000-electric-vehicle-chargers | 178,549 ports; 162,178 L2 and 16,971 fast; methodology expansion caveat. |
| cec_reliability | California Energy Commission | 2025-10-08 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/clean-transportation-program/ev-charger-data-and-reliability-standards | Applicability, 97% uptime, reporting and data-sharing obligations. |
| myfirstev_cec | California Energy Commission | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-07/ev-sales-rebound-trumps-war-iran-rages | Announced first-time buyer rebate values, budget and automaker match. |
| myfirstev_gov | Office of Governor Gavin Newsom | 2026-07-16 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/07/16/governor-newsom-secures-13-automakers-to-offer-instant-rebates-for-first-time-zev-buyers/ | Thirteen automakers and programme funding context. |
| cc4a | California Air Resources Board | 2025-06-16 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/clean-cars-4-all | Current income-qualified vehicle and charging incentives. |
| dcap | California Air Resources Board | 2025-06-16 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/driving-clean-assistance-program | Current statewide income-qualified grant, loan and charging support. |
| zap | California Air Resources Board | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-assurance-project/about | Proposed repair/purchase assistance; not treated as open until verified. |
| bar_apply | California Bureau of Automotive Repair | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.bar.ca.gov/apply | Automotive Repair Dealer registration, applicability and fees. |
| bar_wir | California Bureau of Automotive Repair | 2026-01-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.bar.ca.gov/wir | Estimate, authorization, invoice and three-year record requirements. |
| bar_ats | California Bureau of Automotive Repair | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.bar.ca.gov/ats | Manufacturer procedures, accepted standards and enforcement context. |
| bar_consumer | California Bureau of Automotive Repair | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.bar.ca.gov/auto-repairs | Consumer rights to estimates, authorization, changes and invoices. |
| cdtfa_auto | California Department of Tax and Fee Administration | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://cdtfa.ca.gov/industry/auto-repair-garages/industry-topics.htm | Parts/labour tax treatment and invoicing. |
| cdtfa_rates | California Department of Tax and Fee Administration | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/taxes-and-fees/sales-use-tax-rates.htm | 7.25% statewide base plus local district rates; address lookup required. |
| dfpi_fran | California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dfpi.ca.gov/regulated-industries/franchises/about-the-franchise-investment-law/ | Registration and fourteen-day pre-sale disclosure. |
| dfpi_fees | California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation | 2026-05-07 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dfpi.ca.gov/regulated-industries/franchises/whats-new-in-2025/ | Current registration/renewal filing fees. |
| dir_wage | California Department of Industrial Relations | 2025-12-05 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.dir.ca.gov/DIRNews/2025/2025-118.html | $16.90/hour statewide minimum effective 1 January 2026; local floors may be higher. |
| dir_loto | California Department of Industrial Relations | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.dir.ca.gov/title8/3314.html | Lockout/tagout and hazardous stored-energy controls. |
| dir_elec | California Department of Industrial Relations | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dir.ca.gov/Title8/2320_4.html | Electrical isolation, locking, tagging and stored-energy controls. |
| dtsc_generators | California Department of Toxic Substances Control | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dtsc.ca.gov/generators/ | Cradle-to-grave generator responsibility. |
| dtsc_ids | California Department of Toxic Substances Control | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dtsc.ca.gov/hazardous-waste-id-numbers/ | Site/owner-specific state or federal ID requirements. |
| dtsc_battery | California Department of Toxic Substances Control | 2024-12-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dtsc.ca.gov/universalwaste/universal-waste-for-residents-batteries/ | Battery classifications and EV-battery policy context. |
| dtsc_facility | California Department of Toxic Substances Control | 2025-02-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://dtsc.ca.gov/discarded-battery-management-fact-sheet/ | Hazardous-battery determination, CUPA and authorized destination controls. |
| epa_battery | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | 2025-08-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.epa.gov/hw/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-frequently-asked-questions | EV batteries removed at shops are not household waste; damaged/recalled transport controls. |
| epa_recycling | U.S. Environmental Protection Agency | 2025-10-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.epa.gov/hw/lithium-ion-battery-recycling | Ignitability/reactivity and recycling context. |
| emfac | California Air Resources Board | 2026-06-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://emfac.arb.ca.gov/ | Official emissions/vehicle-population model and detailed geographic data. |
| emfac_update | California Air Resources Board | 2026-03-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://emfac.arb.ca.gov/emfac2025-techdoc/tchap/appendices-version-updates.html | Removal of disapproved waiver-dependent rules from current model. |
| emfac_acf | California Air Resources Board | 2026-06-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://emfac.arb.ca.gov/emfac2025-techdoc/tchap/ch9-2.advanced-clean-fleet.html | Current fleet-rule modelling boundary after waiver withdrawal. |
| cncda_q1_2026 | California New Car Dealers Association | 2026-07-20 | 2026-08-12 | Industry association / Experian | https://www.cncda.org/news/category/auto-outlook/ | Experian-derived Q1 2026 ZEV share, Tesla/Model Y and regional results. |
| cncda_q4_2025 | California New Car Dealers Association | 2026-02-01 | 2026-08-12 | Industry association / Experian | https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q4-2025-auto-outlook/ | Experian-derived 2025 ZEV share, Tesla and Model Y registrations. |
| cncda_q2_2025 | California New Car Dealers Association | 2025-07-22 | 2026-08-12 | Industry association / Experian | https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q2-2025-auto-outlook-report/ | Experian-derived model and regional rankings. |
| cncda_q1_2025 | California New Car Dealers Association | 2025-04-24 | 2026-08-12 | Industry association / Experian | https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q1-2025-auto-outlook-report/ | Experian-derived Q1 2025 model and regional rankings. |
| sp_age | S&P Global Mobility | 2025-05-21 | 2026-08-12 | Commercial primary research | https://press.spglobal.com/2025-05-21-U-S-Vehicle-Age-Rises-Again-to-12-8-Years-in-2025%2C-According-to-S-P-Global-Mobility | National vehicle-age benchmark; not a California EV-age statistic. |
| earthling | Earthling Automotive | 2023-04-03 | 2026-08-12 | Commercial primary source | https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/earthling-automotive-launches-as-the-future-of-independent-electric-vehicle-repair-301787700.html | Bay Area independent EV/hybrid repair and training competitor. |
| evreviver | EV Reviver | 2025-10-01 | 2026-08-12 | Commercial primary source | https://evreviver.com/ | Orange County Tesla battery/drive-unit competitor and indicative advertised pricing. |
| rays | Ray’s EV Service | — | 2026-08-12 | Commercial primary source | https://www.raysevservice.com/ | Mobile Tesla diagnostics from Los Angeles to San Diego. |
| nex | NEX Automotive | — | 2026-08-12 | Commercial primary source | https://nexauto.us/ev-repair-rocklin/ | Sacramento-region Rivian-certified and multi-brand EV competitor. |
| clarity | Clarity Auto Care | — | 2026-08-12 | Commercial primary source | https://www.clarityautocare.com/services/tesla-service | Bay Area independent scope and OEM-only referral boundaries. |
| gobiz_cctc | Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development | 2026-04-30 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://cdn.business.ca.gov/california-competes-tax-credit/ | Competitive tax-credit availability; no award assumed. |
| calosba | California Office of the Small Business Advocate | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.calosba.ca.gov/for-small-businesses-and-non-profits/business-incentives/ | Loan guarantee, CalCAP and hiring-credit routes; eligibility-dependent. |
| edd_training | California Employment Development Department | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Employers_Businesses/ | ETP and workforce-service routes; no reimbursement assumed. |
| gogreen | California State Treasurer | — | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://website-prod.treasurer.ca.gov/caeatfa/gogreen/business | Small-business energy/EV-charging financing eligibility. |
| iso6469 | ISO | 2021-01-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://www.iso.org/standard/45477.html | International HV safety benchmark; legal adoption not assumed. |
| unr100 | UNECE | 2022-03-01 | 2026-08-12 | Primary / authoritative | https://unece.org/transport/documents/2022/03/standards/un-regulation-no-100-rev3 | International electric-powertrain benchmark. |
| evs_model | EVS Worldwide | 2026-08-12 | 2026-08-12 | EVS assumption register | https://evsworldwide.com/ | All forecasts, addressability factors, economics, gates and recommendations are EVS assumptions. |
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-20
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-07/ev-sales-rebound-trumps-war-iran-rages
- Decision Use
- Q2 2026 ZEV sales, powertrain split, model availability, cumulative sales, chargers and infrastructure allocation.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2026-01-20
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-01/california-surpasses-25-million-zev-sales
- Decision Use
- Q4 2025 ZEV sales/share, cumulative milestone, model availability, chargers and incentive context.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-10-13
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-10/california-smashes-zev-sales-record-q3
- Decision Use
- Q3 2025 ZEV and EV sales and charger regulation adoption.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-07-31
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-07/over-100000-zevs-sold-california-second-quarter-2025
- Decision Use
- Q2 2025 sales, share, model count and infrastructure.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-05-16
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-05/california-zev-sales-hold-steady-start-2025
- Decision Use
- Q1 2025 sales/share and Tesla/non-Tesla diversification.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-01-31
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-01/californias-zev-momentum-rolls-2025
- Decision Use
- Q4 2024 ZEV sales and share.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-17
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/files/zev-and-infrastructure-stats-data
- Decision Use
- Official data index for quarterly sales, shares, vehicle population and chargers; update dates retained.
- Publisher
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://afdc.energy.gov/states/ca
- Decision Use
- 2024 and 2025 light-duty registrations by fuel from TransAtlas/Experian.
- Publisher
- U.S. Department of Energy
- Publication Date
- 2024-06-03
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.gov/cmei/vehicles/articles/fotw-1345-june-3-2024-share-plug-vehicle-registrations-california-reached-43
- Decision Use
- 2023 plug-in share of light-duty registrations.
- Publisher
- California Department of Motor Vehicles
- Publication Date
- 2026-01-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statistics/
- Decision Use
- All registered vehicles total; not used as AFDC denominator because universes differ.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-20
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-07/ev-sales-rebound-trumps-war-iran-rages
- Decision Use
- 216,445 public/shared ports, over 20,000 DC fast ports and estimated 800,000 home chargers.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-09-24
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-09/california-exceeds-200000-electric-vehicle-chargers
- Decision Use
- 201,180 public/shared ports and definition.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-03-20
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2025-03/california-exceeds-178000-electric-vehicle-chargers
- Decision Use
- 178,549 ports; 162,178 L2 and 16,971 fast; methodology expansion caveat.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2025-10-08
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/clean-transportation-program/ev-charger-data-and-reliability-standards
- Decision Use
- Applicability, 97% uptime, reporting and data-sharing obligations.
- Publisher
- California Energy Commission
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-20
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.energy.ca.gov/news/2026-07/ev-sales-rebound-trumps-war-iran-rages
- Decision Use
- Announced first-time buyer rebate values, budget and automaker match.
- Publisher
- Office of Governor Gavin Newsom
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-16
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.gov.ca.gov/2026/07/16/governor-newsom-secures-13-automakers-to-offer-instant-rebates-for-first-time-zev-buyers/
- Decision Use
- Thirteen automakers and programme funding context.
- Publisher
- California Air Resources Board
- Publication Date
- 2025-06-16
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/clean-cars-4-all
- Decision Use
- Current income-qualified vehicle and charging incentives.
- Publisher
- California Air Resources Board
- Publication Date
- 2025-06-16
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/resources/fact-sheets/driving-clean-assistance-program
- Decision Use
- Current statewide income-qualified grant, loan and charging support.
- Publisher
- California Air Resources Board
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/zero-emission-assurance-project/about
- Decision Use
- Proposed repair/purchase assistance; not treated as open until verified.
- Publisher
- California Bureau of Automotive Repair
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.bar.ca.gov/apply
- Decision Use
- Automotive Repair Dealer registration, applicability and fees.
- Publisher
- California Bureau of Automotive Repair
- Publication Date
- 2026-01-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.bar.ca.gov/wir
- Decision Use
- Estimate, authorization, invoice and three-year record requirements.
- Publisher
- California Bureau of Automotive Repair
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.bar.ca.gov/ats
- Decision Use
- Manufacturer procedures, accepted standards and enforcement context.
- Publisher
- California Bureau of Automotive Repair
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.bar.ca.gov/auto-repairs
- Decision Use
- Consumer rights to estimates, authorization, changes and invoices.
- Publisher
- California Department of Tax and Fee Administration
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://cdtfa.ca.gov/industry/auto-repair-garages/industry-topics.htm
- Decision Use
- Parts/labour tax treatment and invoicing.
- Publisher
- California Department of Tax and Fee Administration
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.cdtfa.ca.gov/taxes-and-fees/sales-use-tax-rates.htm
- Decision Use
- 7.25% statewide base plus local district rates; address lookup required.
- Publisher
- California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dfpi.ca.gov/regulated-industries/franchises/about-the-franchise-investment-law/
- Decision Use
- Registration and fourteen-day pre-sale disclosure.
- Publisher
- California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation
- Publication Date
- 2026-05-07
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dfpi.ca.gov/regulated-industries/franchises/whats-new-in-2025/
- Decision Use
- Current registration/renewal filing fees.
- Publisher
- California Department of Industrial Relations
- Publication Date
- 2025-12-05
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.dir.ca.gov/DIRNews/2025/2025-118.html
- Decision Use
- $16.90/hour statewide minimum effective 1 January 2026; local floors may be higher.
- Publisher
- California Department of Industrial Relations
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.dir.ca.gov/title8/3314.html
- Decision Use
- Lockout/tagout and hazardous stored-energy controls.
- Publisher
- California Department of Industrial Relations
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dir.ca.gov/Title8/2320_4.html
- Decision Use
- Electrical isolation, locking, tagging and stored-energy controls.
- Publisher
- California Department of Toxic Substances Control
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dtsc.ca.gov/generators/
- Decision Use
- Cradle-to-grave generator responsibility.
- Publisher
- California Department of Toxic Substances Control
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dtsc.ca.gov/hazardous-waste-id-numbers/
- Decision Use
- Site/owner-specific state or federal ID requirements.
- Publisher
- California Department of Toxic Substances Control
- Publication Date
- 2024-12-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dtsc.ca.gov/universalwaste/universal-waste-for-residents-batteries/
- Decision Use
- Battery classifications and EV-battery policy context.
- Publisher
- California Department of Toxic Substances Control
- Publication Date
- 2025-02-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://dtsc.ca.gov/discarded-battery-management-fact-sheet/
- Decision Use
- Hazardous-battery determination, CUPA and authorized destination controls.
- Publisher
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- Publication Date
- 2025-08-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.epa.gov/hw/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-frequently-asked-questions
- Decision Use
- EV batteries removed at shops are not household waste; damaged/recalled transport controls.
- Publisher
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- Publication Date
- 2025-10-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.epa.gov/hw/lithium-ion-battery-recycling
- Decision Use
- Ignitability/reactivity and recycling context.
- Publisher
- California Air Resources Board
- Publication Date
- 2026-06-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://emfac.arb.ca.gov/
- Decision Use
- Official emissions/vehicle-population model and detailed geographic data.
- Publisher
- California Air Resources Board
- Publication Date
- 2026-03-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://emfac.arb.ca.gov/emfac2025-techdoc/tchap/appendices-version-updates.html
- Decision Use
- Removal of disapproved waiver-dependent rules from current model.
- Publisher
- California Air Resources Board
- Publication Date
- 2026-06-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://emfac.arb.ca.gov/emfac2025-techdoc/tchap/ch9-2.advanced-clean-fleet.html
- Decision Use
- Current fleet-rule modelling boundary after waiver withdrawal.
- Publisher
- California New Car Dealers Association
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-20
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Industry association / Experian
- Url
- https://www.cncda.org/news/category/auto-outlook/
- Decision Use
- Experian-derived Q1 2026 ZEV share, Tesla/Model Y and regional results.
- Publisher
- California New Car Dealers Association
- Publication Date
- 2026-02-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Industry association / Experian
- Url
- https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q4-2025-auto-outlook/
- Decision Use
- Experian-derived 2025 ZEV share, Tesla and Model Y registrations.
- Publisher
- California New Car Dealers Association
- Publication Date
- 2025-07-22
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Industry association / Experian
- Url
- https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q2-2025-auto-outlook-report/
- Decision Use
- Experian-derived model and regional rankings.
- Publisher
- California New Car Dealers Association
- Publication Date
- 2025-04-24
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Industry association / Experian
- Url
- https://www.cncda.org/news/california-new-car-dealers-association-releases-q1-2025-auto-outlook-report/
- Decision Use
- Experian-derived Q1 2025 model and regional rankings.
- Publisher
- S&P Global Mobility
- Publication Date
- 2025-05-21
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Commercial primary research
- Url
- https://press.spglobal.com/2025-05-21-U-S-Vehicle-Age-Rises-Again-to-12-8-Years-in-2025%2C-According-to-S-P-Global-Mobility
- Decision Use
- National vehicle-age benchmark; not a California EV-age statistic.
- Publisher
- Earthling Automotive
- Publication Date
- 2023-04-03
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Commercial primary source
- Url
- https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/earthling-automotive-launches-as-the-future-of-independent-electric-vehicle-repair-301787700.html
- Decision Use
- Bay Area independent EV/hybrid repair and training competitor.
- Publisher
- EV Reviver
- Publication Date
- 2025-10-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Commercial primary source
- Url
- https://evreviver.com/
- Decision Use
- Orange County Tesla battery/drive-unit competitor and indicative advertised pricing.
- Publisher
- Ray’s EV Service
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Commercial primary source
- Url
- https://www.raysevservice.com/
- Decision Use
- Mobile Tesla diagnostics from Los Angeles to San Diego.
- Publisher
- NEX Automotive
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Commercial primary source
- Url
- https://nexauto.us/ev-repair-rocklin/
- Decision Use
- Sacramento-region Rivian-certified and multi-brand EV competitor.
- Publisher
- Clarity Auto Care
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Commercial primary source
- Url
- https://www.clarityautocare.com/services/tesla-service
- Decision Use
- Bay Area independent scope and OEM-only referral boundaries.
- Publisher
- Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development
- Publication Date
- 2026-04-30
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://cdn.business.ca.gov/california-competes-tax-credit/
- Decision Use
- Competitive tax-credit availability; no award assumed.
- Publisher
- California Office of the Small Business Advocate
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.calosba.ca.gov/for-small-businesses-and-non-profits/business-incentives/
- Decision Use
- Loan guarantee, CalCAP and hiring-credit routes; eligibility-dependent.
- Publisher
- California Employment Development Department
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://edd.ca.gov/en/jobs_and_training/Employers_Businesses/
- Decision Use
- ETP and workforce-service routes; no reimbursement assumed.
- Publisher
- California State Treasurer
- Publication Date
- —
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://website-prod.treasurer.ca.gov/caeatfa/gogreen/business
- Decision Use
- Small-business energy/EV-charging financing eligibility.
- Publisher
- ISO
- Publication Date
- 2021-01-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://www.iso.org/standard/45477.html
- Decision Use
- International HV safety benchmark; legal adoption not assumed.
- Publisher
- UNECE
- Publication Date
- 2022-03-01
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- Primary / authoritative
- Url
- https://unece.org/transport/documents/2022/03/standards/un-regulation-no-100-rev3
- Decision Use
- International electric-powertrain benchmark.
- Publisher
- EVS Worldwide
- Publication Date
- 2026-08-12
- Accessed At
- 2026-08-12
- Classification
- EVS assumption register
- Url
- https://evsworldwide.com/
- Decision Use
- All forecasts, addressability factors, economics, gates and recommendations are EVS assumptions.
Source register
56 primary and derived sources
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Source register
56 primary and derived sources
- 37EMFAC
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