Namibia
EVS Namibia EV Service Centre Market Entry
Decision-grade Namibia assessment separating passenger BEVs/PHEVs from hybrids, buses, policy conversion measures, charger locations and non-registry commercial estimates.
Approximate February 2024 commercial operating floor; not registry stock.
Reported locations; not audited connectors.
Gate-planning jobs/year; not booked demand.
Base simple payback on N$350,000 reversible capex.
The verdict in full
- Conditional go only for registry/demand diligence and a scheduled Greater Windhoek partner clinic. No current authoritative passenger-BEV/PHEV stock series was located. [ra_registration]
- A February 2024 commercial report put operational EVs at approximately 100; another cited about 500. They are not averaged or treated as registry truth. [puma_ev] [vivo_conflict]
- Nine public charging locations were reported in September 2025, not audited connectors. Seven were in Windhoek, one Walvis Bay and one Arandis. [city_charger]
- National TAM remains null. The 194-job / N$1,164,000 SAM is a gate case that activates only after NaTIS proves at least 300 registered Greater Windhoek plug-ins.
- No standalone centre, franchise sale or traction-pack work.
Board Decision
Authorise a dated NaTIS extract, legal/technical diligence and paid-demand validation. Release no more than N$350,000 reversible capex only after every gate passes. Base steady state is 90 jobs, N$540,000 revenue, N$124,800 EBITDA and 2.80-year simple payback; all operating inputs are EVS assumptions.
Decision Summary
| Dimension | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Market entry | CONDITIONAL GO — registry and paid-demand diligence, then a scheduled Greater Windhoek partner clinic | Commercial stock estimates conflict and are not registry evidence. |
| Standalone centre / franchise | NO-GO now | The observed floor and charger evidence cannot support irreversible premises or territory. |
| Traction-battery work | HOLD | No opening, removal, damaged-pack custody or shipment without written approvals. |
- Decision
- CONDITIONAL GO — registry and paid-demand diligence, then a scheduled Greater Windhoek partner clinic
- Reason
- Commercial stock estimates conflict and are not registry evidence.
- Decision
- NO-GO now
- Reason
- The observed floor and charger evidence cannot support irreversible premises or territory.
- Decision
- HOLD
- Reason
- No opening, removal, damaged-pack custody or shipment without written approvals.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Market size
Namibia had 419,716 registered vehicles at September 2025 according to a parliamentary statement relay, but the number covers all fuels/classes. It is not an EV service denominator. [natis_population]
Namibia definition-sensitive EV observations
Commercial estimates, all vehicles and policy measures are separate grains.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Market KPIs
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National registered vehicle population | 419,716 | vehicles | September 2025 | All vehicles; parliamentary statement relay [natis_population]. |
| NaTIS transactions | 140,000 | transactions/month | Reported October 2025 | Approximate; all transaction types [natis_transactions]. |
| Commercially reported EV operating floor | 100 | vehicles | February 2024 | Approximate non-registry estimate [puma_ev]. |
| Conflicting higher commercial estimate | 500 | vehicles | November 2024 | Later-2024 press claim; not reconciled or adopted [vivo_conflict]. |
| Reported public charging locations | 9 | locations | September 2025 | Not connectors, power or uptime [city_charger]. |
| Municipal charger rating | 22 | kW AC | September 2025 | One Windhoek device supporting two vehicles [city_charger]. |
- Value
- 419,716
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- September 2025
- Evidence
- All vehicles; parliamentary statement relay [natis_population].
- Value
- 140,000
- Unit
- transactions/month
- Period
- Reported October 2025
- Evidence
- Approximate; all transaction types [natis_transactions].
- Value
- 100
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- February 2024
- Evidence
- Approximate non-registry estimate [puma_ev].
- Value
- 500
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- November 2024
- Evidence
- Later-2024 press claim; not reconciled or adopted [vivo_conflict].
- Value
- 9
- Unit
- locations
- Period
- September 2025
- Evidence
- Not connectors, power or uptime [city_charger].
- Value
- 22
- Unit
- kW AC
- Period
- September 2025
- Evidence
- One Windhoek device supporting two vehicles [city_charger].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Definition-sensitive Namibia observations
| Period | BEV | PHEV (unavailable) | BEV used in model | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb-2024 commercial operating-floor claim | — | — | 100 | Approximate all-EV claim; propulsion/body/status not separated [puma_ev]. |
| Nov-2024 conflicting higher claim | — | — | 500 | Commercial claim; not averaged or used as stock [vivo_conflict]. |
| Sep-2025 all registered vehicles | — | — | 419,716 | All fuels/classes; not EV stock [natis_population]. |
| 2030 NDC light-vehicle BEV measure | 96,500 | — | 96,500 | Mitigation planning measure, not realised or additive stock [ndc]. |
| 2030 NDC heavy-vehicle BEV measure | 7,000 | — | 7,000 | Heavy planning measure; excluded from passenger service pool [ndc]. |
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 100
- Scope
- Approximate all-EV claim; propulsion/body/status not separated [puma_ev].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 500
- Scope
- Commercial claim; not averaged or used as stock [vivo_conflict].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 419,716
- Scope
- All fuels/classes; not EV stock [natis_population].
- BEV
- 96,500
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 96,500
- Scope
- Mitigation planning measure, not realised or additive stock [ndc].
- BEV
- 7,000
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 7,000
- Scope
- Heavy planning measure; excluded from passenger service pool [ndc].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Definition reconciliation
Passenger plug-ins, all vehicles, buses, policy measures, commercial estimates and charger locations are not interchangeable.
Definition reconciliation
| Term | Included | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Passenger BEV/PHEV stock | No current authoritative separated series located | National TAM and adoption share remain null. |
| 100-EV observation | Approximate operational estimate in February 2024 | Conservative commercial floor only; stale/non-registry. |
| 500-EV observation | Conflicting later-2024 commercial claim | Uncertainty disclosure; not averaged or modelled. |
| All registered vehicles | 419,716 at September 2025 | Automotive context only, not EV denominator. |
| Public charging | Nine reported locations | Not audited connector, power, uptime or access count. |
| NDC conversion measures | 96,500 light and 7,000 heavy BEV measures | Policy ambition only; not stock, sales or additive forecast. |
| Electric buses / green-hydrogen alternatives | Policy/fleet pathways | Excluded from passenger service pool. |
- Included
- No current authoritative separated series located
- Use
- National TAM and adoption share remain null.
- Included
- Approximate operational estimate in February 2024
- Use
- Conservative commercial floor only; stale/non-registry.
- Included
- Conflicting later-2024 commercial claim
- Use
- Uncertainty disclosure; not averaged or modelled.
- Included
- 419,716 at September 2025
- Use
- Automotive context only, not EV denominator.
- Included
- Nine reported locations
- Use
- Not audited connector, power, uptime or access count.
- Included
- 96,500 light and 7,000 heavy BEV measures
- Use
- Policy ambition only; not stock, sales or additive forecast.
- Included
- Policy/fleet pathways
- Use
- Excluded from passenger service pool.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Forecast scenarios
20%, 40% and 65% five-year cases grow the approximate 100-EV commercial floor. They are EVS capacity tests, not official stock forecasts.
Commercial-floor planning cases
Five-year EVS capacity cases from 100; not official forecasts.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Five-year commercial-floor planning cases
| Scenario | Annual Growth Pct | Planning stock end-2030 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 20 | 249 | Five-year capacity case from the 100-EV commercial floor; not official forecast. |
| Base | 40 | 538 | Planning case requiring repeat supply, registration and after-sales access. |
| High | 65 | 1,223 | Stress case; not used to approve fixed premises. |
- Annual Growth Pct
- 20
- Planning stock end-2030
- 249
- Interpretation
- Five-year capacity case from the 100-EV commercial floor; not official forecast.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 40
- Planning stock end-2030
- 538
- Interpretation
- Planning case requiring repeat supply, registration and after-sales access.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 65
- Planning stock end-2030
- 1,223
- Interpretation
- Stress case; not used to approve fixed premises.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Charging infrastructure
Nine locations were reported, while the City commissioned a 22 kW AC device serving two vehicles. Audit connector count, power, uptime, access and payment at every location. [city_charger]
Reported charging locations and evidence gaps
Locations are not audited connectors, power, uptime or access.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Charging evidence and unknowns
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported public charging locations | 9 | locations | September 2025 | 7 Windhoek, 1 Walvis Bay, 1 Arandis; no connector/power/uptime audit [city_charger]. |
| City of Windhoek public device | 22 | kW AC | September 2025 | Reported to support two vehicles [city_charger]. |
| City-owned stations before launch | 0 | stations | April 2025 | City feasibility stage at publication [city_zero]. |
| EV-specific tariff | — | tariff | Current | No EV-specific tariff inferred; obtain ECB/licensee determination [ecb_tariffs]. |
| Regulatory framework | — | written determination | Announced 2025 | Installation, resale/pricing and standards covered; current instrument required [ecb_framework]. |
- Value
- 9
- Unit
- locations
- Period
- September 2025
- Status
- 7 Windhoek, 1 Walvis Bay, 1 Arandis; no connector/power/uptime audit [city_charger].
- Value
- 22
- Unit
- kW AC
- Period
- September 2025
- Status
- Reported to support two vehicles [city_charger].
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- stations
- Period
- April 2025
- Status
- City feasibility stage at publication [city_zero].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- tariff
- Period
- Current
- Status
- No EV-specific tariff inferred; obtain ECB/licensee determination [ecb_tariffs].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- written determination
- Period
- Announced 2025
- Status
- Installation, resale/pricing and standards covered; current instrument required [ecb_framework].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Vehicle parc age and service demand
No authoritative passenger-BEV/PHEV age or warranty distribution was located. A NaTIS VIN/year/status extract is the first demand-control gate.
Vehicle parc and service demand
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Registered vehicle population | 419,716 | vehicles | Large conventional parc but no accessible propulsion split [natis_population]. |
| Approximate NaTIS throughput | 140,000 | transactions/month | Registry infrastructure exists; commission a dated EV extract [natis_transactions]. |
| Passenger EV stock by age | — | vehicles | No authoritative BEV/PHEV age/warranty series located. |
| Commercial early-market floor | 100 | vehicles | Too small/stale for fixed centre; validate VIN/location/status [puma_ev]. |
| Named early models | — | units | Nissan Leaf, Mercedes EQA/EQB and BMW iX signal model diversity without shares [puma_ev]. |
- Value
- 419,716
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- Large conventional parc but no accessible propulsion split [natis_population].
- Value
- 140,000
- Unit
- transactions/month
- Implication
- Registry infrastructure exists; commission a dated EV extract [natis_transactions].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- No authoritative BEV/PHEV age/warranty series located.
- Value
- 100
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- Too small/stale for fixed centre; validate VIN/location/status [puma_ev].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- units
- Implication
- Nissan Leaf, Mercedes EQA/EQB and BMW iX signal model diversity without shares [puma_ev].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM
National passenger-EV TAM is not quantified. The commercial floor and launch-gate case separate sourced observations from EVS assumptions; executable SOM is zero.
National TAM unavailable / gate SAM
Assumption-led capacity case; executable SOM zero.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Sizing assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Unit | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial operating floor | 100 | vehicles | Approximate February 2024 press observation [puma_ev]. |
| Active/available factor | 0.9 | share | EVS planning haircut; not a Namibia statistic. |
| Service events | 1.2 | jobs/active vehicle/year | EVS blended diagnostic/chassis assumption. |
| Average repair order | 6,000 | NAD/job | Replace with paid Namibia observations. |
| Greater Windhoek launch threshold | 300 | registered light-duty plug-ins | EVS minimum-density gate, not estimate. |
| Independent reach after gate | 0.6 | share | Verify warranty/captive-fleet access. |
| Executable SOM before gates | 0 | jobs | Deliberately zero. |
- Value
- 100
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- Approximate February 2024 press observation [puma_ev].
- Value
- 0.9
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS planning haircut; not a Namibia statistic.
- Value
- 1.2
- Unit
- jobs/active vehicle/year
- Basis
- EVS blended diagnostic/chassis assumption.
- Value
- 6,000
- Unit
- NAD/job
- Basis
- Replace with paid Namibia observations.
- Value
- 300
- Unit
- registered light-duty plug-ins
- Basis
- EVS minimum-density gate, not estimate.
- Value
- 0.6
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- Verify warranty/captive-fleet access.
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- jobs
- Basis
- Deliberately zero.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
TAM / SAM / SOM
| Layer | Vehicles | Jobs Per Year | Revenue ALL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National passenger-EV TAM | — | — | — | Not quantified: active BEV/PHEV registry denominator unavailable. |
| Commercial operating-floor model | 90 | 108 | 648,000 | 100 × 90% active × 1.20 events; not national TAM. |
| Greater Windhoek gate SAM | 162 | 194 | 1,164,000 | 300 gate × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events. |
- Vehicles
- —
- Jobs Per Year
- —
- Revenue ALL
- —
- Status
- Not quantified: active BEV/PHEV registry denominator unavailable.
- Vehicles
- 90
- Jobs Per Year
- 108
- Revenue ALL
- 648,000
- Status
- 100 × 90% active × 1.20 events; not national TAM.
- Vehicles
- 162
- Jobs Per Year
- 194
- Revenue ALL
- 1,164,000
- Status
- 300 gate × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Customers and fleets
Prioritise supported private imports and paid corporate/mining/tourism fleet trials. Public vehicles are not accessible revenue without procurement and warranty permission.
Customer segments
| Segment | Need | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| Private early adopters and used imports | Pre-purchase inspection, scan, charging, 12V and chassis evidence | High after supported-VIN and registry proof. |
| Corporate, mining and logistics fleets | Scheduled inspection and uptime evidence | High only through a paid fleet trial. |
| Tourism, hospitality and rental fleets | Route/charging readiness and condition reporting | Medium; Windhoek–coast corridor. |
| Government and municipal fleets | Documented procurement and safe diagnostics | Medium only with contract/warranty permission. |
| Electric buses | Depot/OEM support | Excluded from Phase 1. |
- Need
- Pre-purchase inspection, scan, charging, 12V and chassis evidence
- Priority
- High after supported-VIN and registry proof.
- Need
- Scheduled inspection and uptime evidence
- Priority
- High only through a paid fleet trial.
- Need
- Route/charging readiness and condition reporting
- Priority
- Medium; Windhoek–coast corridor.
- Need
- Documented procurement and safe diagnostics
- Priority
- Medium only with contract/warranty permission.
- Need
- Depot/OEM support
- Priority
- Excluded from Phase 1.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Fleet segments
| Segment | Entry Product | Evidence Gate |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate/mining light-duty fleets | Paid inspection and uptime trial | Named VINs, duty cycle, charger audit and service contract. |
| Tourism/rental fleets | Condition report and charging-readiness package | Paid 90-day trial and route map. |
| Municipal/government fleets | Non-warranty overflow only | Procurement, insurer and OEM permission. |
| Dealer overflow | Chassis and evidence-grade triage | Written scope and data/tool access. |
| Buses/heavy EVs | Referral only | Separate heavy-duty competence and facility. |
- Entry Product
- Paid inspection and uptime trial
- Evidence Gate
- Named VINs, duty cycle, charger audit and service contract.
- Entry Product
- Condition report and charging-readiness package
- Evidence Gate
- Paid 90-day trial and route map.
- Entry Product
- Non-warranty overflow only
- Evidence Gate
- Procurement, insurer and OEM permission.
- Entry Product
- Chassis and evidence-grade triage
- Evidence Gate
- Written scope and data/tool access.
- Entry Product
- Referral only
- Evidence Gate
- Separate heavy-duty competence and facility.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Brands and models
No authoritative passenger-EV brand/model registration table was located. Named models are availability signals, not market shares.
Priority brands — no audited market shares located
| Technology | Brand | Units | Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early passenger market | Nissan | — | — | Leaf named in commercial reporting; no registry share [puma_ev]. |
| Premium passenger market | Mercedes-Benz | — | — | EQA/EQB named; no registry share [puma_ev]. |
| Premium passenger market | BMW | — | — | iX named; no registry share [puma_ev]. |
| Used/private imports | Mixed | — | — | No authoritative brand/model table located. |
- Brand
- Nissan
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Leaf named in commercial reporting; no registry share [puma_ev].
- Brand
- Mercedes-Benz
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- EQA/EQB named; no registry share [puma_ev].
- Brand
- BMW
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- iX named; no registry share [puma_ev].
- Brand
- Mixed
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- No authoritative brand/model table located.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Priority models
| Brand | Model | Powertrain | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nissan | Leaf | BEV | Early used/imported fleet signal; VIN/battery-generation matrix required [puma_ev]. |
| Mercedes-Benz | EQA | BEV | OEM/warranty-controlled premium model [puma_ev]. |
| Mercedes-Benz | EQB | BEV | OEM/warranty-controlled premium model [puma_ev]. |
| BMW | iX | BEV | OEM/warranty-controlled premium model [puma_ev]. |
| Mixed | PHEV/BEV imports | BEV/PHEV by VIN | No model ranking; classify before booking. |
- Model
- Leaf
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Early used/imported fleet signal; VIN/battery-generation matrix required [puma_ev].
- Model
- EQA
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- OEM/warranty-controlled premium model [puma_ev].
- Model
- EQB
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- OEM/warranty-controlled premium model [puma_ev].
- Model
- iX
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- OEM/warranty-controlled premium model [puma_ev].
- Model
- PHEV/BEV imports
- Powertrain
- BEV/PHEV by VIN
- Signal
- No model ranking; classify before booking.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Competitive landscape
OEM dealers, EV/charging specialists and independent workshops define the early field; fuel retailers’ halted roll-outs reinforce demand caution.
Competitor map
| Competitor | Type | Footprint | Threat | Response |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M&Z Motors / Mercedes-Benz network | OEM-authorised dealer | Windhoek | High for warranty vehicles | Out-of-warranty and written overflow scope only. |
| BMW dealer network | OEM-authorised dealer | Windhoek | High for BMW warranty/software | Chassis/inspection/referral only where lawful. |
- Type
- OEM-authorised dealer
- Footprint
- Windhoek
- Threat
- High for warranty vehicles
- Response
- Out-of-warranty and written overflow scope only.
- Type
- OEM-authorised dealer
- Footprint
- Windhoek
- Threat
- High for BMW warranty/software
- Response
- Chassis/inspection/referral only where lawful.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Priority geography
Greater Windhoek is the only fixed operating candidate; the coast is a later collection/fleet corridor, not a second-site case.
Priority regions
| Rank | Region | Rationale | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greater Windhoek | Seven of nine reported charging locations and the first municipal charger; capital/vehicle-service concentration [city_charger]. | Only candidate for scheduled partner clinic. |
- Region
- Greater Windhoek
- Rationale
- Seven of nine reported charging locations and the first municipal charger; capital/vehicle-service concentration [city_charger].
- Mode
- Only candidate for scheduled partner clinic.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Consumer incentives
No universal purchase subsidy or EV customs/VAT exemption was verified; planned incentives and NDC measures are not enacted consumer benefits.
Consumer incentives
| Instrument | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Universal EV purchase subsidy | Not verified | No subsidy included in demand model. |
| Universal EV customs/VAT exemption | Not verified | Use classification-specific customs and 15% VAT until written NamRA ruling [namra_taxes] [trade_portal]. |
- Status
- Not verified
- Implication
- No subsidy included in demand model.
- Status
- Not verified
- Implication
- Use classification-specific customs and 15% VAT until written NamRA ruling [namra_taxes] [trade_portal].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Business incentives
| Instrument | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| NIPDB investor facilitation | Coordination route | Use for permits/investment liaison; model assumes zero cash benefit [nipdb]. |
| ProSME Fund | Time-limited 2026 programme | Eligibility requires majority Namibian ownership and operating history; not booked [sme_fund]. |
- Status
- Coordination route
- Action
- Use for permits/investment liaison; model assumes zero cash benefit [nipdb].
- Status
- Time-limited 2026 programme
- Action
- Eligibility requires majority Namibian ownership and operating history; not booked [sme_fund].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Business, tax and investment incentives
Economics are VAT- and pre-tax. No grant, reduced rate or customs rebate is banked without written approval.
Tax and customs baseline
| Tax | Rate | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| VAT | 15% | Economics exclude VAT; mandatory registration threshold and treatment require NamRA confirmation [namra_taxes]. |
| Non-mining corporate income tax | 30% for years commencing on/after 1 January 2025 | Pre-tax model; 28% was proposed, not banked [pwc_tax] [kpmg_tax_2026]. |
- Rate
- 15%
- Treatment
- Economics exclude VAT; mandatory registration threshold and treatment require NamRA confirmation [namra_taxes].
- Rate
- 30% for years commencing on/after 1 January 2025
- Treatment
- Pre-tax model; 28% was proposed, not banked [pwc_tax] [kpmg_tax_2026].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Labour, licensing and workshop regulation
Entity, tax, COF/zoning/fire, workplace, electrical, standards, environmental, waste, data and insurance evidence are hard gates.
Licensing path
| Gate | Authority | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Entity and tax | BIPA / NamRA | Incorporation, beneficial ownership, annual duty, tax, VAT and PAYE [bipa_companies] [bipa_annual] [namra_taxes]. |
| Premises / municipal business | City of Windhoek | Zoning/consent, lease, municipal account, fire and annual COF [city_cof] [city_business]. |
- Authority
- BIPA / NamRA
- Evidence
- Incorporation, beneficial ownership, annual duty, tax, VAT and PAYE [bipa_companies] [bipa_annual] [namra_taxes].
- Authority
- City of Windhoek
- Evidence
- Zoning/consent, lease, municipal account, fire and annual COF [city_cof] [city_business].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Labour and safety obligations
| Requirement | Owner | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Factory/workplace plans and registration | Site operator | Confirm F2/plan approvals and inspection route [labour_forms]. |
| Dangerous machinery / lifting equipment | Workshop manager | Registration, examination and records where applicable [labour] [labour_forms]. |
- Owner
- Site operator
- Control
- Confirm F2/plan approvals and inspection route [labour_forms].
- Owner
- Workshop manager
- Control
- Registration, examination and records where applicable [labour] [labour_forms].
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
High-voltage safety
HV authority is task-specific, documented and auditable; training alone does not authorise unsupported work.
High-voltage controls
| Control | Required Evidence |
|---|---|
| VIN/powertrain whitelist | Classify BEV, PHEV, HEV and conversion before booking. |
| Task-specific authorisation | Named technician, assessment, scope, expiry and supervision. |
| Safe de-energisation | OEM procedure, lock/tag, proved tester and absence-of-voltage record [iso_6469]. |
| Controlled work zone | Barriers, PPE/tools, rescue equipment and no lone HV work. |
| Charging connection | Licensed electrical work and ECB/licensee/NSI determination; IEC 61851/ISO 17409 benchmarks [iec_61851] [iso_17409]. |
| Release evidence | Pre/post scan, restoration, torque/QC, limitations and customer sign-off. |
- Required Evidence
- Classify BEV, PHEV, HEV and conversion before booking.
- Required Evidence
- Named technician, assessment, scope, expiry and supervision.
- Required Evidence
- OEM procedure, lock/tag, proved tester and absence-of-voltage record [iso_6469].
- Required Evidence
- Barriers, PPE/tools, rescue equipment and no lone HV work.
- Required Evidence
- Licensed electrical work and ECB/licensee/NSI determination; IEC 61851/ISO 17409 benchmarks [iec_61851] [iso_17409].
- Required Evidence
- Pre/post scan, restoration, torque/QC, limitations and customer sign-off.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Battery and waste
Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, removal, damaged-pack custody and shipment.
Battery and waste routes
| Stage | Rule | Route |
|---|---|---|
| Intact in-vehicle traction pack | Non-invasive diagnostics only | No opening, removal or storage. |
| Suspect/damaged pack arrival | Refuse routine indoor custody | Emergency/OEM/insurer response plan. |
- Rule
- Non-invasive diagnostics only
- Route
- No opening, removal or storage.
- Rule
- Refuse routine indoor custody
- Route
- Emergency/OEM/insurer response plan.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Recommended service portfolio
Lead with condition reports, scans, 12V/charging triage and EV-aware chassis work.
Recommended service portfolio
| Phase | Service | Include | Exclude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | VIN-classified diagnostic scan | DTC/live data/12V/charge evidence | Secure coding, unsupported models or warranty decisions. |
| Launch | Pre-purchase EV condition report | Visual, scan, charging, thermal observation and chassis | Guaranteed battery capacity/life. |
| Launch | Charging and low-voltage triage | Cable, inlet, EVSE interface and 12V | Grid/electrical work without licensed provider. |
| Launch | Tyres, brakes, suspension and alignment | EV load/torque evidence | Unsupported ADAS calibration. |
| Fleet | Uptime inspection and report | Paid fleet trial | OEM HV warranty. |
| Hold | Traction-pack/module work | None | Opening, transport or custody. |
- Service
- VIN-classified diagnostic scan
- Include
- DTC/live data/12V/charge evidence
- Exclude
- Secure coding, unsupported models or warranty decisions.
- Service
- Pre-purchase EV condition report
- Include
- Visual, scan, charging, thermal observation and chassis
- Exclude
- Guaranteed battery capacity/life.
- Service
- Charging and low-voltage triage
- Include
- Cable, inlet, EVSE interface and 12V
- Exclude
- Grid/electrical work without licensed provider.
- Service
- Tyres, brakes, suspension and alignment
- Include
- EV load/torque evidence
- Exclude
- Unsupported ADAS calibration.
- Service
- Uptime inspection and report
- Include
- Paid fleet trial
- Exclude
- OEM HV warranty.
- Service
- Traction-pack/module work
- Include
- None
- Exclude
- Opening, transport or custody.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Franchise and operating model
Use scheduled clinic days inside a compliant local partner workshop. Do not sell territory or sign a standalone lease.
Operating model
| Element | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Format | Scheduled clinic days in one compliant Greater Windhoek partner workshop. |
| Ownership | Namibia company/venture with verified registrations and licences. |
| Territory | No franchise sale or exclusivity before 12 months paid evidence. |
| Staffing | One assessed HV lead plus one technician; shared support. |
| Technology | Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful service information. |
| Commercial | Menu-priced evidence products, deposits and paid fleet trials. |
| Expansion | Coast collection route only after Windhoek continuation gate. |
- Recommendation
- Scheduled clinic days in one compliant Greater Windhoek partner workshop.
- Recommendation
- Namibia company/venture with verified registrations and licences.
- Recommendation
- No franchise sale or exclusivity before 12 months paid evidence.
- Recommendation
- One assessed HV lead plus one technician; shared support.
- Recommendation
- Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful service information.
- Recommendation
- Menu-priced evidence products, deposits and paid fleet trials.
- Recommendation
- Coast collection route only after Windhoek continuation gate.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Pilot economics
All pricing, volume, margin, opex and capex inputs are EVS assumptions. The partner-clinic format protects downside.
Greater Windhoek partner-clinic EBITDA
NAD; EVS assumptions.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Annual partner-clinic economics — NAD
| Scenario | Jobs | ARO ALL | Revenue ALL | Gross Margin Pct | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL | Payback Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 45 | 5,000 | 225,000 | 55 | 123,750 | 140,000 | -16,250 | — |
- Jobs
- 45
- ARO ALL
- 5,000
- Revenue ALL
- 225,000
- Gross Margin Pct
- 55
- Gross Profit ALL
- 123,750
- Opex ALL
- 140,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -16,250
- Payback Years
- —
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
90-day economics — NAD
| Scenario | Jobs 90d | Revenue ALL | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 12 | 60,000 | 33,000 | 35,000 | -2,000 |
- Jobs 90d
- 12
- Revenue ALL
- 60,000
- Gross Profit ALL
- 33,000
- Opex ALL
- 35,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -2,000
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Risks and mitigations
The dominant risks are a missing denominator, conflicting commercial estimates and confusing policy ambition with accessible paid demand.
Risks and mitigations
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger-BEV/PHEV denominator unavailable | High | High | NaTIS extract; national TAM remains null. |
| Commercial 100/500 estimates mistaken for registry stock | High | High | Do not average; validate VIN/location/status. |
| NDC measures mistaken for realised demand | High | High | Keep policy measures separate from stock and forecasts. |
| Reported charging locations mistaken for connectors | High | Medium | Physical connector/power/uptime/access audit. |
| OEM software and parts access | High | High | Supported VIN/task matrix and referral network. |
| Battery fire or electric shock | Low | Critical | No pack work; isolation SOP, rescue gear and drills. |
| Waste route failure | Medium | Critical | No traction-battery custody before written route. |
| Tax, subsidy and data-law uncertainty | Medium | Medium | Current written NamRA/counsel opinions; zero incentives. |
| Very small paid demand | High | High | Clinic format, deposits and hard day-90 stop. |
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- NaTIS extract; national TAM remains null.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Do not average; validate VIN/location/status.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Keep policy measures separate from stock and forecasts.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- Medium
- Mitigation
- Physical connector/power/uptime/access audit.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Supported VIN/task matrix and referral network.
- Likelihood
- Low
- Impact
- Critical
- Mitigation
- No pack work; isolation SOP, rescue gear and drills.
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Critical
- Mitigation
- No traction-battery custody before written route.
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Medium
- Mitigation
- Current written NamRA/counsel opinions; zero incentives.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Clinic format, deposits and hard day-90 stop.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
90-day entry plan
Registry/legal proof precedes deposits, tools and paid work.
90-day entry plan
| Days | Objective | Actions | Owner | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | Registry and legal gate | Obtain NaTIS extract by propulsion/body/age/owner/location/status; map entity, COF, factory, fire, electricity, standards, waste, data and insurance. | EVS board / Namibia counsel | Feasibility and definition file. |
- Objective
- Registry and legal gate
- Actions
- Obtain NaTIS extract by propulsion/body/age/owner/location/status; map entity, COF, factory, fire, electricity, standards, waste, data and insurance.
- Owner
- EVS board / Namibia counsel
- Deliverable
- Feasibility and definition file.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Explicit go / no-go gates
Failure on denominator, paid demand, compliance, capability, safety or economics stops launch.
Go / no-go gates
| Gate | Go | No-Go |
|---|---|---|
| Market denominator | NaTIS extract supports at least 300 registered, active-status passenger/light-commercial BEVs/PHEVs in Greater Windhoek, separately identified | Classes/status cannot be separated or count is below threshold. |
- Go
- NaTIS extract supports at least 300 registered, active-status passenger/light-commercial BEVs/PHEVs in Greater Windhoek, separately identified
- No-Go
- Classes/status cannot be separated or count is below threshold.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Methodology
Sourced facts, conflicts, missing fields and EVS assumptions remain visibly separated.
Methodology
| Step | Method |
|---|---|
| 1. Evidence hierarchy | Namibia primary sources first; official-statement/press relays labelled. |
| 2. Definition control | Separate passenger plug-ins, all vehicles, buses, policy measures, commercial estimates and charger locations. |
| 3. Market denominator | Leave national passenger-EV TAM null until NaTIS extract. |
| 4. Commercial floor | 100 approximate operational EVs × 90% active × 1.20 events; not national TAM. |
| 5. Gate SAM | 300 Greater Windhoek registered plug-ins × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events. |
| 6. SOM | Zero before hard gates. |
| 7. Forecasts | Five-year capacity cases from the 100-EV commercial floor; not official forecasts. |
| 8. Economics | VAT-exclusive EVS assumptions; capacity stays within gate SAM. |
| 9. Validation | JSON, schema, formulas, citations, links, branding, definition control and template residue. |
- Method
- Namibia primary sources first; official-statement/press relays labelled.
- Method
- Separate passenger plug-ins, all vehicles, buses, policy measures, commercial estimates and charger locations.
- Method
- Leave national passenger-EV TAM null until NaTIS extract.
- Method
- 100 approximate operational EVs × 90% active × 1.20 events; not national TAM.
- Method
- 300 Greater Windhoek registered plug-ins × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events.
- Method
- Zero before hard gates.
- Method
- Five-year capacity cases from the 100-EV commercial floor; not official forecasts.
- Method
- VAT-exclusive EVS assumptions; capacity stays within gate SAM.
- Method
- JSON, schema, formulas, citations, links, branding, definition control and template residue.
Source: EVS Namibia operating-floor, launch-gate and pilot model
Complete linked source register
50 linked sources record publisher, publication/access dates, scope and caveats.
EVS Board Position
CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a scheduled Greater Windhoek partner clinic; NO-GO standalone/franchise; HOLD traction-pack work.
Source register
50 primary and derived sources
ShowHide
Source register
50 primary and derived sources
Get the full Namibia report
The complete assessment — competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentive and regulatory detail, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan. Sent straight to your inbox.