Ethiopia.

Conditional go, but only through one reversible Addis Ababa partner bay. Ethiopia has a large, policy-driven EV demand signal, yet the latest 140,000 figure is all-class and not a registry-grade passenger/light-commercial denominator [amn_stock].

The service gap is real. Independent reporting identifies limited trained garages, tools and parts while OEM capacity is growing [ap_transition] [byd_service].

No standalone centre, franchise territory or traction-battery work now. Executable SOM remains zero until registry, paid demand, compliance, capability and economics gates pass.

Approve registry/legal diligence and a capped paid pilot. Reject property, master-franchise, speculative inventory and battery-pack exposure.

The Transport State Minister reported 140,000 EVs by March 2026, after earlier reports of 100,000 and 115,000 [amn_stock] [fana_stock] [guardian_stock]. None supplies a class, district, active-status or VIN-level reconciliation. EVS therefore uses 140,000 only as an all-class anchor.

EV, passenger BEV, bus, electric two/three-wheeler, charging station, live connector and pipeline are distinct.

Five-year cautious, base and high cases start from the 140,000 all-class proxy. They are not government or registration forecasts.

The latest statement says about 200 stations provide service, with 40-plus EEU stations and 16 corridor sites in development/design [amn_charge]. These are not verified live connectors.

No current authoritative EV age, warranty, class or district table was located. That gap materially affects tyre, suspension, battery and diagnostic demand.

The model discounts the all-class source before applying active, city, independent-reach, event and price assumptions.

Taxi, ride-hailing, corporate and NGO fleets provide repeatable VINs, duty cycles and paid proof.

BYD, Hyundai, GAC and multiple Chinese imports are evident, but no authoritative registration-by-brand table was found.

EVS should compete on documented multi-brand diagnostics, fleet uptime and refusal discipline—not warranty substitution.

Charging, OEMs, fleets, regulators and technicians are concentrated in the capital.

The ICE import restriction and EV tax treatment accelerate supply, but exact entitlement and duration must be confirmed in writing.

Vehicle VAT relief does not automatically exempt workshop services, parts, tools or franchise fees.

Commercial registration alone does not authorise an automotive workshop, EVSE, hazardous-waste activity or foreign-participation structure.

The pilot permits only tasks with a written OEM procedure, competent people, rated equipment and emergency readiness.

Ethiopia has hazardous-waste law, but this research did not identify a verified, insured traction-battery recipient and carrier chain [hazard_law].

Diagnostics, wear items, inspections and fleet reporting fit the capability and regulatory envelope.

Use an existing licensed operator, capped tools and a management standard rather than a new property.

Base steady state assumes 1,200 jobs, ETB8,000 ARO, 62% gross margin and ETB4.8m fixed opex. Values are EVS assumptions, VAT-exclusive and inflation-sensitive.

The addressable-class assumption is the largest sizing uncertainty.

The sequence prevents premises and inventory from preceding evidence.

Failure stops or redesigns the pilot; it does not justify lowering the threshold.

The report prioritises current Ethiopian sources, preserves definitions and exposes every EVS assumption.

Publication and access dates, source role and limitations are recorded. Dynamic pages should be archived during diligence.

CONDITIONAL GO: fund registry/legal work and one capped Addis Ababa partner-bay pilot. NO-GO: standalone centre, territory sale, traction-battery work or unlicensed charging activity. Reassess after the 90-day paid gate.