Market IntelligenceAfrica
Kenya
EVS Kenya EV Service Centre Market Entry
Decision-grade Kenya assessment separating passenger electric cars, buses, motorcycles, bicycles, three-wheelers, total-EV stock claims, charging points and electricity-tariff customers.
Snapshot: 11 August 202626-page full report
Passenger electric cars
326
End-2024 electric passenger-car observation; NTSA extract required.
Estimated points
300
Estimated points; not audited live connectors.
Jobs/year
137
Modelled Nairobi jobs/year; not booked demand.
Years
3.333
Base simple payback on KES600,000 reversible capex.
Executive summary
The verdict in full
- Conditional go only for one reversible Nairobi partner bay after an NTSA extract. The latest separable observation is 326 passenger electric cars at end-2024; PHEVs are unavailable. [bd_stock]
- Total-EV claims conflict and are motorcycle-dominated. Government/utility sources state 24,754, over 35,000 and 39,324 for 2025; they are not averaged or used as car stock. [ps_stock] [kplc_energy] [transport_policy]
- Modelled TAM is 352 jobs; Nairobi SAM is 137 jobs and KES2,055,000. Geography, reach, frequency and price are EVS assumptions.
- No standalone centre, franchise or traction-pack work.
Board Decision
Authorise diligence and up to KES600,000 reversible capex only after gates. Base steady state is 100 jobs, KES1,500,000 revenue, KES180,000 EBITDA and 3.33-year payback.
Decision Summary
| Dimension | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Market entry | CONDITIONAL GO — one reversible Nairobi partner bay | Passenger-car denominator is small and industry-sourced; total-EV figures are motorcycle-dominated and conflict. |
| Standalone centre / franchise | NO-GO now | The passenger-car SAM cannot support irreversible premises or exclusive territory. |
| Traction-battery work | HOLD | No pack opening, removal, storage or damaged-pack custody without NEMA, fire, insurer, carrier and recipient approvals. |
Market entry
- Decision
- CONDITIONAL GO — one reversible Nairobi partner bay
- Reason
- Passenger-car denominator is small and industry-sourced; total-EV figures are motorcycle-dominated and conflict.
Standalone centre / franchise
- Decision
- NO-GO now
- Reason
- The passenger-car SAM cannot support irreversible premises or exclusive territory.
Traction-battery work
- Decision
- HOLD
- Reason
- No pack opening, removal, storage or damaged-pack custody without NEMA, fire, insurer, carrier and recipient approvals.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Market size
The report sizes the passenger-car service opportunity from 326 cars, not the motorcycle-dominated total EV market.
Kenya definition-sensitive EV observations
Passenger-car and total-EV grains remain separate.
796
326
123
24,754
2022 total EVs
2024 passenger cars
2024 car registrations
End-2025 total EVs
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Market KPIs
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric passenger cars | 326 | vehicles | End-2024 | Industry stock observation [bd_stock]. |
| Electric cars newly registered | 123 | vehicles | 2024 | Annual flow [citizen_2024]. |
| Total EVs — PS statement | 24,754 | vehicles | End-2025 | All classes [ps_stock]. |
| Total EVs — ministry launch | 39,324 | vehicles | 2025 | All classes; conflicts with PS [transport_policy]. |
| EV electricity consumption | 8,433,437 | kWh | 2025 | Kenya Power tariff-metered consumption [kplc_energy]. |
Electric passenger cars
- Value
- 326
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- End-2024
- Evidence
- Industry stock observation [bd_stock].
Electric cars newly registered
- Value
- 123
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2024
- Evidence
- Annual flow [citizen_2024].
Total EVs — PS statement
- Value
- 24,754
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- End-2025
- Evidence
- All classes [ps_stock].
Total EVs — ministry launch
- Value
- 39,324
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2025
- Evidence
- All classes; conflicts with PS [transport_policy].
EV electricity consumption
- Value
- 8,433,437
- Unit
- kWh
- Period
- 2025
- Evidence
- Kenya Power tariff-metered consumption [kplc_energy].
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Definition-sensitive Kenya EV observations
| Period | BEV | PHEV (unavailable) | BEV used in model | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 total EVs | — | — | 796 | Kenya Power comparator; all classes [kplc_tariff]. |
| 2024 passenger cars | 326 | — | 326 | Industry passenger-car stock [bd_stock]. |
| 2024 car registrations | 123 | — | 123 | Annual electric-car flow; not added to stock [citizen_2024]. |
| End-2025 total EVs | — | — | 24,754 | Conservative official-speaker all-class figure; conflicts recorded [ps_stock]. |
2022 total EVs
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 796
- Scope
- Kenya Power comparator; all classes [kplc_tariff].
2024 passenger cars
- BEV
- 326
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 326
- Scope
- Industry passenger-car stock [bd_stock].
2024 car registrations
- BEV
- 123
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 123
- Scope
- Annual electric-car flow; not added to stock [citizen_2024].
End-2025 total EVs
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 24,754
- Scope
- Conservative official-speaker all-class figure; conflicts recorded [ps_stock].
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Definition reconciliation
Passenger cars, PHEVs, motorcycles, bicycles, buses, tuk-tuks, stock, annual registrations, charging points and tariff meters are not interchangeable.
Definition reconciliation
| Term | Included | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Passenger electric cars | 326 end-2024 industry stock observation | Core service model; NTSA verification gate. |
| PHEV stock | No separable series located | Excluded from model. |
| Total EV stock claims | 24,754 / over 35,000 / 39,324 | Record conflict; do not average or use for car TAM. |
| Two-wheelers | Motorcycles and bicycles dominate total EVs | Excluded from passenger-car service model. |
| Charging point | Estimated point, not site or proven live connector | Infrastructure context only. |
| Tariff customer | Meter/account on e-mobility tariff | Not charger or vehicle count. |
| Industrial pipeline | Assembly capacity/commitments | Not registrations. |
Passenger electric cars
- Included
- 326 end-2024 industry stock observation
- Use
- Core service model; NTSA verification gate.
PHEV stock
- Included
- No separable series located
- Use
- Excluded from model.
Total EV stock claims
- Included
- 24,754 / over 35,000 / 39,324
- Use
- Record conflict; do not average or use for car TAM.
Two-wheelers
- Included
- Motorcycles and bicycles dominate total EVs
- Use
- Excluded from passenger-car service model.
Charging point
- Included
- Estimated point, not site or proven live connector
- Use
- Infrastructure context only.
Tariff customer
- Included
- Meter/account on e-mobility tariff
- Use
- Not charger or vehicle count.
Industrial pipeline
- Included
- Assembly capacity/commitments
- Use
- Not registrations.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Forecast scenarios
25%, 45% and 70% five-year growth cases are EVS passenger-car capacity scenarios, not official forecasts.
Passenger-car planning scenarios
Five-year EVS cases from 326; not official forecasts.
Cautious995
Base2,090
HighBase case4,629
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Five-year passenger-car planning scenarios
| Scenario | Annual Growth Pct | Planning stock end-2030 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 25 | 995 | Five-year passenger-car capacity case; not official forecast. |
| Base | 45 | 2,090 | Availability and financing improve. |
| High | 70 | 4,629 | Stress-test only; requires infrastructure and supply. |
Cautious
- Annual Growth Pct
- 25
- Planning stock end-2030
- 995
- Interpretation
- Five-year passenger-car capacity case; not official forecast.
Base
- Annual Growth Pct
- 45
- Planning stock end-2030
- 2,090
- Interpretation
- Availability and financing improve.
High
- Annual Growth Pct
- 70
- Planning stock end-2030
- 4,629
- Interpretation
- Stress-test only; requires infrastructure and supply.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Get the full Kenya analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.
Charging infrastructure
An estimated 300 points existed by June 2025; Kenya Power recorded 205 tariff customers and 8.43GWh in 2025. These grains remain separate. [epra_points] [kplc_energy]
Charging and tariff observations
Points, sites, customers and energy are different measures.
300
205
8,433,437
13
Estimated charging points
E-mobility tariff customers
EV charging electricity
TotalEnergies swap/charge sites
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Charging evidence and unknowns
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated charging points | 300 | points | June 2025 | EMAK estimate in EPRA reporting [epra_points]. |
| E-mobility tariff customers | 205 | metered customers | 2025 | Kenya Power [kplc_energy]. |
| EV charging electricity | 8,433,437 | kWh | 2025 | 188% increase; tariff-metered scope [kplc_energy]. |
| TotalEnergies swap/charge sites | 13 | sites | 2023 | Motorcycle-focused, not passenger-car connectors [total_sites]. |
Estimated charging points
- Value
- 300
- Unit
- points
- Period
- June 2025
- Status
- EMAK estimate in EPRA reporting [epra_points].
E-mobility tariff customers
- Value
- 205
- Unit
- metered customers
- Period
- 2025
- Status
- Kenya Power [kplc_energy].
EV charging electricity
- Value
- 8,433,437
- Unit
- kWh
- Period
- 2025
- Status
- 188% increase; tariff-metered scope [kplc_energy].
TotalEnergies swap/charge sites
- Value
- 13
- Unit
- sites
- Period
- 2023
- Status
- Motorcycle-focused, not passenger-car connectors [total_sites].
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Vehicle parc and demand
Kenya’s EV growth is overwhelmingly two-wheeled. Passenger-car service demand remains small, young and Nairobi-led.
Vehicle parc and service demand
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger EV stock observation | 326 | cars | Very small car workshop denominator [bd_stock]. |
| 2024 car registrations | 123 | cars | Young warranty-led cohort [citizen_2024]. |
| Electric motorcycles | 8,097 | motorcycles | Large but outside EVS passenger-car bay model [bd_stock]. |
| Electric buses/minibuses | 54 | vehicles | Depot/OEM service economics differ [bd_stock]. |
Passenger EV stock observation
- Value
- 326
- Unit
- cars
- Implication
- Very small car workshop denominator [bd_stock].
2024 car registrations
- Value
- 123
- Unit
- cars
- Implication
- Young warranty-led cohort [citizen_2024].
Electric motorcycles
- Value
- 8,097
- Unit
- motorcycles
- Implication
- Large but outside EVS passenger-car bay model [bd_stock].
Electric buses/minibuses
- Value
- 54
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- Depot/OEM service economics differ [bd_stock].
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM
The sourced passenger-car anchor is separated from every EVS assumption. Executable SOM is zero.
Passenger-car TAM / Nairobi SAM
Industry anchor plus explicit EVS assumptions.
352
228
137
0
TAM
Nairobi core
SAM
SOM
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Sizing assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Unit | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger-car stock anchor | 326 | cars | End-2024 industry observation. |
| Active/available factor | 0.9 | share | EVS planning haircut. |
| Annual service events | 1.2 | jobs/active car | EVS blended diagnostic/chassis assumption. |
| Average repair order | 15,000 | KES/job | Replace with 50 paid observations. |
| Nairobi concentration | 0.65 | share | EVS assumption pending NTSA county extract. |
| Independent reach | 0.6 | share | EVS assumption reflecting imports/out-of-warranty opportunity. |
| Executable SOM before gates | 0 | jobs | Deliberately zero. |
Passenger-car stock anchor
- Value
- 326
- Unit
- cars
- Basis
- End-2024 industry observation.
Active/available factor
- Value
- 0.9
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS planning haircut.
Annual service events
- Value
- 1.2
- Unit
- jobs/active car
- Basis
- EVS blended diagnostic/chassis assumption.
Average repair order
- Value
- 15,000
- Unit
- KES/job
- Basis
- Replace with 50 paid observations.
Nairobi concentration
- Value
- 0.65
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS assumption pending NTSA county extract.
Independent reach
- Value
- 0.6
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS assumption reflecting imports/out-of-warranty opportunity.
Executable SOM before gates
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- jobs
- Basis
- Deliberately zero.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
TAM / SAM / SOM
| Layer | Vehicles | Jobs Per Year | Revenue ALL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | 293 | 352 | 5,280,000 | Active passenger-car pool; motorcycles/buses/PHEVs excluded. |
| Nairobi core | 190 | 228 | 3,420,000 | EVS 65% geography assumption. |
| SAM | 114 | 137 | 2,055,000 | Nairobi core × 60% independent reach. |
TAM
- Vehicles
- 293
- Jobs Per Year
- 352
- Revenue ALL
- 5,280,000
- Status
- Active passenger-car pool; motorcycles/buses/PHEVs excluded.
Nairobi core
- Vehicles
- 190
- Jobs Per Year
- 228
- Revenue ALL
- 3,420,000
- Status
- EVS 65% geography assumption.
SAM
- Vehicles
- 114
- Jobs Per Year
- 137
- Revenue ALL
- 2,055,000
- Status
- Nairobi core × 60% independent reach.
1 more row in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Customers and fleets
Prioritise ride-hail fleets, controlled private imports and dealer overflow on supported VINs.
Customer segments
| Segment | Need | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| Private-import passenger EV owners | VIN identification, condition/charging evidence | Highest after whitelist. |
| Dealer-supplied EV owners | Non-warranty second opinion and chassis work | Referral-safe scope. |
| Ride-hail EV cars | Uptime, tyres/brakes/12V and evidence | Paid fleet trial. |
| PHEV owners | Separate ICE/HV workflows | Excluded until registry split. |
Private-import passenger EV owners
- Need
- VIN identification, condition/charging evidence
- Priority
- Highest after whitelist.
Dealer-supplied EV owners
- Need
- Non-warranty second opinion and chassis work
- Priority
- Referral-safe scope.
Ride-hail EV cars
- Need
- Uptime, tyres/brakes/12V and evidence
- Priority
- Paid fleet trial.
PHEV owners
- Need
- Separate ICE/HV workflows
- Priority
- Excluded until registry split.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Fleet segments
| Segment | Entry Product | Evidence Gate |
|---|---|---|
| Ride-hail fleets | Monthly uptime/condition report | Paid SLA and supported VINs. |
| Corporate fleets | Inspection and charging triage | Paid trial. |
| Rental fleets | Turnaround/incident evidence | One paid contract. |
| Dealers/importers | Pre-delivery/overflow evidence | Written non-warranty authorisation. |
Ride-hail fleets
- Entry Product
- Monthly uptime/condition report
- Evidence Gate
- Paid SLA and supported VINs.
Corporate fleets
- Entry Product
- Inspection and charging triage
- Evidence Gate
- Paid trial.
Rental fleets
- Entry Product
- Turnaround/incident evidence
- Evidence Gate
- One paid contract.
Dealers/importers
- Entry Product
- Pre-delivery/overflow evidence
- Evidence Gate
- Written non-warranty authorisation.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Get the full Kenya analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.
Brands and models
No authoritative passenger-EV brand table was found; commercial availability is not registration evidence.
Priority brands — no audited market shares located
| Technology | Brand | Units | Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger BEV | Mixed private imports | — | — | No authoritative brand table located. |
| Passenger BEV | SafiVolt-listed BYD/GAC/Dongfeng/MG | — | — | Commercial availability, not registrations [safivolt]. |
| Electric bus | BasiGo/AVA | — | — | Local ecosystem evidence; excluded from car model [ava] [basigo]. |
Passenger BEV
- Brand
- Mixed private imports
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- No authoritative brand table located.
Passenger BEV
- Brand
- SafiVolt-listed BYD/GAC/Dongfeng/MG
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Commercial availability, not registrations [safivolt].
Electric bus
- Brand
- BasiGo/AVA
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Local ecosystem evidence; excluded from car model [ava] [basigo].
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Priority models
| Brand | Model | Powertrain | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD / GAC Aion / Dongfeng / MG | Mixed RHD imports | BEV | Commercial listings only; no official units [safivolt]. |
| Rideence | Henrey hatchback / Joylong van | BEV | AVA assembly pipeline [ava_invest]. |
| BasiGo | Electric bus range | BEV bus | Depot/OEM model outside passenger-car bay. |
| Roam / Spiro | Electric motorcycles | BEV two-wheeler | Dominant ecosystem but excluded from EVS car model. |
BYD / GAC Aion / Dongfeng / MG
- Model
- Mixed RHD imports
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Commercial listings only; no official units [safivolt].
Rideence
- Model
- Henrey hatchback / Joylong van
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- AVA assembly pipeline [ava_invest].
BasiGo
- Model
- Electric bus range
- Powertrain
- BEV bus
- Signal
- Depot/OEM model outside passenger-car bay.
Roam / Spiro
- Model
- Electric motorcycles
- Powertrain
- BEV two-wheeler
- Signal
- Dominant ecosystem but excluded from EVS car model.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Competitive landscape
OEM ecosystems, vertically integrated two-wheeler/bus firms and emerging independent EV garages already compete in Nairobi.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Competitor map
| Competitor | Type | Footprint | Threat | Response |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OEM/importer after-sales | SafiVolt and authorised distributors | Nairobi-led | Warranty, parts and model knowledge | Non-warranty evidence and referrals [safivolt]. |
| Glive | Independent multi-service garage | Nairobi | Advertised EV/battery capability and fleet services | Stronger HV governance and narrow supported scope [glive]. |
OEM/importer after-sales
- Type
- SafiVolt and authorised distributors
- Footprint
- Nairobi-led
- Threat
- Warranty, parts and model knowledge
- Response
- Non-warranty evidence and referrals [safivolt].
Glive
- Type
- Independent multi-service garage
- Footprint
- Nairobi
- Threat
- Advertised EV/battery capability and fleet services
- Response
- Stronger HV governance and narrow supported scope [glive].
2 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Priority geography
Nairobi is the only fixed-bay candidate. Other cities begin as collection routes.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Priority regions
| Rank | Region | Rationale | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nairobi metropolitan | Largest fleet, dealer, charging and tariff concentration; exact car count requires NTSA extract. | One partner bay. |
1
- Region
- Nairobi metropolitan
- Rationale
- Largest fleet, dealer, charging and tariff concentration; exact car count requires NTSA extract.
- Mode
- One partner bay.
4 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Incentives
Current headline VAT/excise benefits favour buses, bicycles, motorcycles and batteries; passenger-car/service eligibility is not assumed. [transport_policy]
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Consumer incentives
| Instrument | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| VAT zero-rating | Policy launch states electric buses, bicycles, motorcycles and lithium-ion batteries | Do not assume passenger cars or workshop services qualify [transport_policy]. |
| Excise duty | Zero for electric bicycles, motorcycles and lithium-ion batteries | Not a passenger-car service subsidy [transport_policy]. |
VAT zero-rating
- Status
- Policy launch states electric buses, bicycles, motorcycles and lithium-ion batteries
- Implication
- Do not assume passenger cars or workshop services qualify [transport_policy].
Excise duty
- Status
- Zero for electric bicycles, motorcycles and lithium-ion batteries
- Implication
- Not a passenger-car service subsidy [transport_policy].
2 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Business incentives
| Instrument | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| KenInvest facilitation | Application/coordination route | Request written eligibility; model assumes zero benefit [investkenya]. |
| SEZ incentives | Location/activity/approval-specific | Ordinary Nairobi workshop not assumed eligible [seza]. |
KenInvest facilitation
- Status
- Application/coordination route
- Action
- Request written eligibility; model assumes zero benefit [investkenya].
SEZ incentives
- Status
- Location/activity/approval-specific
- Action
- Ordinary Nairobi workshop not assumed eligible [seza].
2 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Tax and investment
Economics are VAT- and tax-exclusive; no incentive is booked without written approval.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Tax and customs baseline
| Tax | Rate | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| VAT on workshop services/parts | 16% general rate unless listed otherwise | Economics exclude VAT; confirm classification/threshold [kra_vat]. |
| Corporate income tax | Entity-specific current rate | Pre-tax model; obtain KRA advice. |
VAT on workshop services/parts
- Rate
- 16% general rate unless listed otherwise
- Treatment
- Economics exclude VAT; confirm classification/threshold [kra_vat].
Corporate income tax
- Rate
- Entity-specific current rate
- Treatment
- Pre-tax model; obtain KRA advice.
3 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Licensing and labour
BRS, county, DOSHS, EPRA/KEBS, NEMA, data and insurer evidence are all hard gates.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Licensing path
| Gate | Authority | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Entity/tax/employer | BRS / KRA / NSSF | Incorporation, beneficial owners, PIN/VAT/PAYE and employer records [brs] [kra_vat] [nssf]. |
| County business/premises | Nairobi County | Single business permit, zoning/use, occupancy, drainage, signage and fire acceptance [nairobi_county]. |
Entity/tax/employer
- Authority
- BRS / KRA / NSSF
- Evidence
- Incorporation, beneficial owners, PIN/VAT/PAYE and employer records [brs] [kra_vat] [nssf].
County business/premises
- Authority
- Nairobi County
- Evidence
- Single business permit, zoning/use, occupancy, drainage, signage and fire acceptance [nairobi_county].
4 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Labour and safety obligations
| Requirement | Owner | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Workplace registration | Site operator | DOSHS forms/certificate and annual renewal [doshs] [doshs_faq]. |
| Plant/lifting equipment | Workshop manager | Register/examine lifts, receivers and prescribed plant [doshs]. |
Workplace registration
- Owner
- Site operator
- Control
- DOSHS forms/certificate and annual renewal [doshs] [doshs_faq].
Plant/lifting equipment
- Owner
- Workshop manager
- Control
- Register/examine lifts, receivers and prescribed plant [doshs].
3 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
High-voltage safety
HV authority is task-specific and auditable.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
High-voltage controls
| Control | Required Evidence |
|---|---|
| VIN/powertrain whitelist | BEV/PHEV/HEV classified before booking. |
| Competence authorisation | Named technician, assessment, expiry and supervision. |
| Safe de-energisation | OEM procedure, lock/tag, tested instrument and absence-of-voltage proof. |
| Controlled zone | Barriers, PPE/tools, rescue equipment and no lone HV work. |
| Charging safety | KS IEC 61851 and installation controls [kebs_61851]. |
| Release evidence | Pre/post scan, restoration, torque/QC and limitations. |
VIN/powertrain whitelist
- Required Evidence
- BEV/PHEV/HEV classified before booking.
Competence authorisation
- Required Evidence
- Named technician, assessment, expiry and supervision.
Safe de-energisation
- Required Evidence
- OEM procedure, lock/tag, tested instrument and absence-of-voltage proof.
Controlled zone
- Required Evidence
- Barriers, PPE/tools, rescue equipment and no lone HV work.
Charging safety
- Required Evidence
- KS IEC 61851 and installation controls [kebs_61851].
Release evidence
- Required Evidence
- Pre/post scan, restoration, torque/QC and limitations.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Battery and waste
Phase 1 excludes traction-pack custody pending NEMA/EPR, recipient, carrier, fire and insurance approvals.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Battery and waste routes
| Stage | Rule | Route |
|---|---|---|
| Intact in-vehicle pack | Non-invasive diagnostics only | No opening/removal/storage. |
| Suspect/damaged pack arrival | Refuse indoor custody | Emergency/OEM/insurer response plan. |
Intact in-vehicle pack
- Rule
- Non-invasive diagnostics only
- Route
- No opening/removal/storage.
Suspect/damaged pack arrival
- Rule
- Refuse indoor custody
- Route
- Emergency/OEM/insurer response plan.
3 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Service portfolio
Lead with condition reports, scans, charging/12V triage and EV chassis services.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Recommended service portfolio
| Phase | Service | Include | Exclude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | VIN-classified diagnostic scan | DTC/live data/12V/charge evidence | Secure coding/warranty. |
| Launch | Pre-purchase EV condition report | Visual, scan, charge, chassis/thermal observations | Guaranteed capacity/life. |
| Launch | Charging/low-voltage triage | Cable/inlet/EVSE/12V | Grid work without licensed installer. |
| Launch | Tyres, brakes, suspension/alignment | EV load/torque evidence | Unsupported ADAS. |
| Fleet | Uptime inspection/report | Ride-hail/corporate/rental | OEM HV warranty. |
| Hold | Pack/module work | None | Opening, transport or custody. |
Launch
- Service
- VIN-classified diagnostic scan
- Include
- DTC/live data/12V/charge evidence
- Exclude
- Secure coding/warranty.
Launch
- Service
- Pre-purchase EV condition report
- Include
- Visual, scan, charge, chassis/thermal observations
- Exclude
- Guaranteed capacity/life.
Launch
- Service
- Charging/low-voltage triage
- Include
- Cable/inlet/EVSE/12V
- Exclude
- Grid work without licensed installer.
Launch
- Service
- Tyres, brakes, suspension/alignment
- Include
- EV load/torque evidence
- Exclude
- Unsupported ADAS.
Fleet
- Service
- Uptime inspection/report
- Include
- Ride-hail/corporate/rental
- Exclude
- OEM HV warranty.
Hold
- Service
- Pack/module work
- Include
- None
- Exclude
- Opening, transport or custody.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Operating model
Use one Kenyan-operated shared bay with no exclusivity.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Operating model
| Element | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Format | One shared bay in compliant Nairobi partner workshop. |
| Ownership | Kenyan company with verified registrations and permits. |
| Territory | No exclusivity before 12 months paid evidence. |
| Staffing | One assessed HV lead plus one technician. |
| Technology | Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful subscriptions. |
| Commercial | Menu-priced evidence products and fleet trials. |
| Expansion | Mombasa/Kisumu collection before fixed bays. |
Format
- Recommendation
- One shared bay in compliant Nairobi partner workshop.
Ownership
- Recommendation
- Kenyan company with verified registrations and permits.
Territory
- Recommendation
- No exclusivity before 12 months paid evidence.
Staffing
- Recommendation
- One assessed HV lead plus one technician.
Technology
- Recommendation
- Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful subscriptions.
Commercial
- Recommendation
- Menu-priced evidence products and fleet trials.
Expansion
- Recommendation
- Mombasa/Kisumu collection before fixed bays.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Pilot economics
All operating inputs are EVS assumptions; the shared-bay structure protects downside.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Nairobi partner-pilot EBITDA
KES; EVS assumptions.
Cautious-204,000
Base180,000
HighBase case579,500
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Annual partner-pilot economics — KES
| Scenario | Jobs | ARO ALL | Revenue ALL | Gross Margin Pct | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL | Payback Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 60 | 12,000 | 720,000 | 55 | 396,000 | 600,000 | -204,000 | — |
Cautious
- Jobs
- 60
- ARO ALL
- 12,000
- Revenue ALL
- 720,000
- Gross Margin Pct
- 55
- Gross Profit ALL
- 396,000
- Opex ALL
- 600,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -204,000
- Payback Years
- —
2 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
90-day economics — KES
| Scenario | Jobs 90d | Revenue ALL | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 15 | 180,000 | 99,000 | 150,000 | -51,000 |
Cautious
- Jobs 90d
- 15
- Revenue ALL
- 180,000
- Gross Profit ALL
- 99,000
- Opex ALL
- 150,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -51,000
2 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Risks
Definition conflict and motorcycle volume being misread as passenger-car demand are dominant.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Risks and mitigations
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conflicting total-EV definitions | High | High | NTSA extract; car model stays on separable denominator. |
| Passenger-car denominator too small | High | High | Shared bay and deposits before spend. |
| Motorcycle volume misread as car opportunity | High | High | Class-specific dashboards and economics. |
| OEM software/parts access | High | High | Top-20 VIN/task matrix and referrals. |
| Battery fire/electric shock | Low | Critical | No pack work, isolation SOP and drills. |
| Waste/EPR route failure | Medium | Critical | No traction-battery custody until written route. |
| Tax/incentive change | Medium | Medium | Quarterly KRA review; zero incentives in model. |
| Charging-point quality | Medium | Medium | Audit 30 sites for connector/power/uptime/access. |
Conflicting total-EV definitions
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- NTSA extract; car model stays on separable denominator.
Passenger-car denominator too small
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Shared bay and deposits before spend.
Motorcycle volume misread as car opportunity
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Class-specific dashboards and economics.
OEM software/parts access
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Top-20 VIN/task matrix and referrals.
Battery fire/electric shock
- Likelihood
- Low
- Impact
- Critical
- Mitigation
- No pack work, isolation SOP and drills.
Waste/EPR route failure
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Critical
- Mitigation
- No traction-battery custody until written route.
Tax/incentive change
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Medium
- Mitigation
- Quarterly KRA review; zero incentives in model.
Charging-point quality
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Medium
- Mitigation
- Audit 30 sites for connector/power/uptime/access.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
90-day plan
Registry/legal evidence precedes deposits, tooling and paid work.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
90-day entry plan
| Days | Objective | Actions | Owner | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | Registry/legal gate | Obtain NTSA class/county extract; map company, county, DOSHS, fire, electrical, NEMA, data and insurance. | EVS board/counsel | Feasibility file. |
0–15
- Objective
- Registry/legal gate
- Actions
- Obtain NTSA class/county extract; map company, county, DOSHS, fire, electrical, NEMA, data and insurance.
- Owner
- EVS board/counsel
- Deliverable
- Feasibility file.
4 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Go / no-go gates
Any failure on density, paid demand, compliance, capability, safety or economics stops launch.
Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.
Go / no-go gates
| Gate | Go | No-Go |
|---|---|---|
| Market denominator | NTSA extract supports at least 250 active passenger BEVs/PHEVs in Nairobi, separately identified | Classes cannot be separated or active count below threshold. |
Market denominator
- Go
- NTSA extract supports at least 250 active passenger BEVs/PHEVs in Nairobi, separately identified
- No-Go
- Classes cannot be separated or active count below threshold.
5 more rows in the full report
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Methodology
Facts, conflicting observations and assumptions remain visibly separated.
Methodology
| Step | Method |
|---|---|
| 1. Evidence hierarchy | Kenyan primary sources first; named official/industry relays labelled. |
| 2. Definition control | Separate passenger cars, PHEVs, motorcycles, bicycles, buses, tuk-tuks, total EVs, points and tariff customers. |
| 3. Service pool | 326 passenger cars × 90% active factor; other classes excluded. |
| 4. TAM | Active pool × 1.20 events × KES15,000 ARO. |
| 5. SAM | Active pool × 65% Nairobi × 60% independent reach × 1.20 events. |
| 6. SOM | Zero before hard gates. |
| 7. Forecasts | Five-year EVS cases from passenger-car anchor; not total-EV forecast. |
| 8. Validation | JSON/schema, formulas, citations, grains, links, branding and residue. |
1. Evidence hierarchy
- Method
- Kenyan primary sources first; named official/industry relays labelled.
2. Definition control
- Method
- Separate passenger cars, PHEVs, motorcycles, bicycles, buses, tuk-tuks, total EVs, points and tariff customers.
3. Service pool
- Method
- 326 passenger cars × 90% active factor; other classes excluded.
4. TAM
- Method
- Active pool × 1.20 events × KES15,000 ARO.
5. SAM
- Method
- Active pool × 65% Nairobi × 60% independent reach × 1.20 events.
6. SOM
- Method
- Zero before hard gates.
7. Forecasts
- Method
- Five-year EVS cases from passenger-car anchor; not total-EV forecast.
8. Validation
- Method
- JSON/schema, formulas, citations, grains, links, branding and residue.
Source: EVS Kenya passenger-car serviceable-pool and pilot model
Source register
47 linked sources record publisher, dates, scope and caveats.
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EVS Board Position
CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and one reversible Nairobi partner bay; NO-GO standalone/franchise; HOLD pack work.
Source register
47 primary and derived sources
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47 primary and derived sources
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