Market IntelligenceAfrica

Madagascar

EVS Madagascar EV Service Centre Market Entry

Decision-grade market-entry report for an EVS service-centre model in Madagascar.

Snapshot: 11 August 202648-page full report
Talk to the expansion team
Active plug-in stock

No authoritative active passenger/light-commercial plug-in stock series.

Public connectors

No verified commissioned public passenger-EV connector census.

Gate jobs
113

EVS annual gate SAM; not a market estimate.

Base payback
12.308

Base simple payback on reversible capex.

Executive summary

The verdict in full

A standalone centre is not supported. An Antananarivo/Analamanga partner clinic remains conditional on evidence and power gates.

Market headline

Null values are deliberate evidence gaps, not zeros.

Market headline

2023 all-powertrain customs-release flow
Period
2023
Value
14,253
Unit
vehicles
Status
4,606 new plus 9,647 other vehicles; secondary report of official Customs dashboard, not active stock [vehicle_imports_2023].
Passenger/LCV BEV sales
Period
Current
Value
Unit
vehicles
Status
Authoritative national series not located.
Passenger/LCV PHEV sales
Period
Current
Value
Unit
vehicles
Status
Authoritative national series not located.
Active passenger/LCV BEV/PHEV stock
Period
Current
Value
Unit
vehicles
Status
Authoritative national/Analamanga series not located.
Commissioned public passenger-EV connectors
Period
Current
Value
Unit
connectors
Status
Operator/regulator inventory not located.
Executable SOM
Period
Pre-gate
Value
0
Unit
jobs/year
Status
Hard-controlled to zero until all launch gates pass [evs_model].

Market size and all-powertrain context

Customs flow provides a bounded planning denominator, not active plug-in stock.

Market size and all-powertrain context

New vehicles released for consumption
Value
4,606
Unit
vehicles
Date
2023
Definition
All powertrains; customs flow [vehicle_imports_2023].
Other vehicles released for consumption
Value
9,647
Unit
vehicles
Date
2023
Definition
All powertrains; class/used definition requires Customs clarification [vehicle_imports_2023].
Combined 2023 customs-release flow
Value
14,253
Unit
vehicles
Date
2023
Definition
Planning denominator only; not registrations or active parc [vehicle_imports_2023].
Combined 2022 comparison flow
Value
11,792
Unit
vehicles
Date
2022
Definition
4,994 new plus 6,798 other vehicles [vehicle_imports_2023].
Reported real GDP growth
Value
4.2
Unit
%
Date
2024 estimate
Definition
IMF macro context, not EV demand [imf_review].
Projected real GDP growth
Value
4.6
Unit
%
Date
2025 forecast
Definition
IMF February 2025 vintage; downside risks apply [imf_review].

BEV/PHEV adoption history

Historical all-powertrain registrations and commercial signals do not form a national plug-in series.

BEV/PHEV adoption history

2019 Q3
Geography
Antananarivo
All Powertrain Registrations
3,185
Plug In Sales
Evidence
INSTAT; 41.1% passenger cars [instat_q3_2019].
2019 Q4
Geography
Antananarivo
All Powertrain Registrations
2,300
Plug In Sales
Evidence
INSTAT; 63.8% new [instat_q4_2019].
2020 Q3
Geography
Antananarivo
All Powertrain Registrations
1,463
Plug In Sales
Evidence
INSTAT; 83% new and 15% used [instat_q3_2020].
2020 Q4
Geography
Antananarivo
All Powertrain Registrations
4,432
Plug In Sales
Evidence
INSTAT; pandemic-processing caveat [instat_q4_2020].
2023
Geography
National customs
All Powertrain Registrations
Plug In Sales
Evidence
14,253 customs releases; not registrations and no propulsion split [vehicle_imports_2023].
2024-10
Geography
Antananarivo
All Powertrain Registrations
Plug In Sales
Evidence
Official BYD/LOXEA launch, no volume [cfao_byd].
2025-09
Geography
Antananarivo taxis
All Powertrain Registrations
Plug In Sales
15
Evidence
One-month importer claim in secondary media; not official national registrations or active stock [motor_show_2025].

Definition reconciliation

Customs releases, registrations, active stock, brand launches and charging claims remain separate.

Definition reconciliation

Customs release
Use
Import-flow context
Not Equivalent To
Registration, active parc, passenger/LCV, plug-in or serviceable vehicle.
New / other vehicle
Use
Customs categories as reported
Not Equivalent To
BEV/PHEV/HEV or verified used-age class.
Brand launch
Use
Availability and incumbent capability
Not Equivalent To
Sale, registered vehicle or active stock [cfao_byd].
Fifteen taxi EVs
Use
Directional commercial signal
Not Equivalent To
Audited national sales, active taxi fleet or BYD volume [motor_show_2025].
Fuel station
Use
Potential site/partner lead
Not Equivalent To
Commissioned charger [fuel_stations].
Announced/deployed charging
Use
Audit lead
Not Equivalent To
Verified site, connector, power, access or uptime [cfao_byd][motor_show_2025][jovena].
Get the full Madagascar analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Cautious / base / high 2030 sensitivities

These are EVS annual-import sensitivities, not official forecasts.

Cautious / base / high 2030 sensitivities

Cautious
Plug In Share Of Static 2023 Import Flow Pct
2
Modelled 2030 Annual Plug In Imports
285
Basis
EVS sensitivity applied to the static 2023 all-powertrain customs-release flow of 14,253 new and other vehicles. Not an official forecast, registration series or active-stock estimate.
Base
Plug In Share Of Static 2023 Import Flow Pct
5
Modelled 2030 Annual Plug In Imports
713
Basis
EVS sensitivity applied to the static 2023 all-powertrain customs-release flow of 14,253 new and other vehicles. Not an official forecast, registration series or active-stock estimate.
High
Plug In Share Of Static 2023 Import Flow Pct
10
Modelled 2030 Annual Plug In Imports
1,425
Basis
EVS sensitivity applied to the static 2023 all-powertrain customs-release flow of 14,253 new and other vehicles. Not an official forecast, registration series or active-stock estimate.

Charging infrastructure

No auditable public site/connector inventory was located.

Charging infrastructure

National commissioned public passenger-EV sites/connectors
Count
Status
No authoritative operator/regulator census located.
Decision
Do not publish a count; physical and documentary audit.
LOXEA charger installation service
Count
Status
Officially offered with BYD vehicles [cfao_byd].
Decision
Potential referral/competitive capability, not public infrastructure.
JOVENA network
Count
Status
2024 reporting described future deployment; 2025 secondary media claimed a national deployment, but operator site lacks an auditable inventory [cfao_byd][motor_show_2025][jovena].
Decision
Treat as unverified until site list and commissioning evidence.
Fuel-station network
Count
336
Status
All-powertrain fuel distribution; secondary OMH report [fuel_stations].
Decision
Partner-location context only, never charger count.

Electricity and site readiness

National grid programmes do not establish workshop-quality supply.

Electricity and site readiness

Population connected to reliable electricity
Value
36
Unit
%
Date
2026 programme baseline
Interpretation
National constraint, not candidate-site evidence [worldbank_ascent].
4 more rows in the full report

Vehicle parc age and service demand

Current plug-in age evidence is missing, so service demand is gated.

Vehicle parc age and service demand

Vehicle-parc age distribution
Value
Service Implication
Cannot quantify out-of-warranty EV pool; obtain registration/VIN age bands.
Unit
2020 Q3 Antananarivo used-registration share
Value
15
Service Implication
Historical local used-flow signal only; not current plug-in age [instat_q3_2020].
Unit
%
2023 other/new customs-flow ratio
Value
2.094
Service Implication
All-powertrain import mix suggests a repair-oriented parc, but category definition and propulsion are unresolved [vehicle_imports_2023].
Unit
ratio
OEM service bundle
Value
Service Implication
CFAO/LOXEA already offers maintenance and parts; EVS should target independent/non-warranty tasks [cfao_byd].
Unit
Get the full Madagascar analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM

Sourced facts and EVS assumptions are explicitly separated.

Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM

Current TAM
Value
Unit
active passenger/LCV plug-ins
Type
Sourced fact unavailable
Formula
Requires active BEV + PHEV registration/VIN extract.
Launch threshold
Value
300
Unit
active plug-ins in Antananarivo/Analamanga
Type
EVS decision gate
Formula
Board minimum; not market estimate [evs_model].
Active/available within gate
Value
270
Unit
vehicles
Type
EVS assumption
Formula
300 × 90% [evs_model].
4 more rows in the full report

Customer segments

Target only evidence-backed, supported vehicles and tasks.

Customer segments

1
Segment
Antananarivo owner-drivers with independently imported EVs
Need
Supported diagnostics, 12V, tyres/brakes/suspension, cooling/AC and pre-purchase evidence.
Validation
Matched VIN list and 20 paid/refundable bookings.
2
Segment
SMEs and professional users
Need
Uptime, predictable pricing, mobile triage and evidence packs.
Validation
Paid fleet trial, not survey interest.
3
Segment
BYD customers outside warranty task scope
Need
Transparent independent service and referrals.
Validation
Written OEM/warranty task matrix [cfao_byd].
4
Segment
Used/parallel-import plug-in buyers
Need
Battery-health screening and parts-routing transparency.
Validation
Customs/registration VIN and age data.

Fleet segments

Rental and taxi evidence are leads, not contracted demand.

Fleet segments

LOXEA rental/fleet
Evidence
Official rental/purchase offer [cfao_byd].
Route
Partnership or referral only; do not assume contract.
Taxi operators
Evidence
Secondary importer claim of 15 EV taxi sales in one month [motor_show_2025].
Route
Verify VINs, ownership, uptime pain and paid trial.
Corporate/NGO/government fleets
Evidence
No verified plug-in fleet count.
Route
Tender/roster scan and paid inspection day.
Logistics and port users
Evidence
Transport/logistics investment context, no electric fleet count [worldbank_transport].
Route
Toamasina second-wave interviews after Antananarivo proof.

Leading EV brands and models

Availability is not sales or active stock.

Leading EV brands and models

BYD
Model
Official range not enumerated in controlling corporate release
Vehicle Type
Passenger BEV
Evidence
Available for rent or purchase in Antananarivo [cfao_byd].
Sales Or Stock
Other passenger BEVs
Model
Unverified
Vehicle Type
Passenger BEV
Evidence
Registry/dealer/import fieldwork required.
Sales Or Stock
Passenger PHEVs
Model
Unverified
Vehicle Type
Passenger PHEV
Evidence
Customs notice covers electric-hybrid categories but does not prove market presence [customs_notice_pdf].
Sales Or Stock
Nissan
Model
Current local range reviewed
Vehicle Type
No verified current EV model on official market page
Evidence
Presence check only [nissan_mg].
Sales Or Stock
Get the full Madagascar analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

OEM and authorized competitors

CFAO/LOXEA is the evidenced four-wheel EV after-sales incumbent.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

OEM and authorized competitors

BYD / CFAO Mobility / LOXEA
Location
Alaria, Antananarivo
Strength
Official showroom, rental/purchase, charger/solar, servicing, maintenance, assistance and parts [cfao_byd].
Implication
Strongest evidenced incumbent; seek referrals/white-label or non-warranty niche.
Other authorized OEM networks
Location
Antananarivo and regional capitals
Strength
Conventional footprints likely; EV/HV capability and volume unverified.
Implication
Field-audit tooling, training, parts and warranty capture.
1 more row in the full report

Independent competitors

Counts and EV/HV capability require field audit.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Independent competitors

General independent workshops
Verified Count
Capability
EV/HV capability not verified
Response
Map 20 Antananarivo workshops; inspect tools, safety, software, quality and referrals.
Tyre/alignment/brake specialists
Verified Count
Capability
Cross-powertrain overlap likely
Response
Partner where equipment calibration and records pass.
2 more rows in the full report

Priority cities and regions

Antananarivo/Analamanga is the only fixed pilot catchment.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Priority cities and regions

1
Region
Antananarivo / Analamanga
Case
Official BYD/LOXEA showroom, taxi demand signal and largest reported fuel-station concentration.
Decision
Only fixed pilot catchment [cfao_byd][motor_show_2025][fuel_stations].
4 more rows in the full report

Consumer and vehicle incentives

The official new-EV exemption has an inspection and advance-classification process.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Consumer and vehicle incentives

New electric/electric-hybrid vehicle exemption
Status
Official Customs notice confirms duties-and-taxes exemption for qualifying new vehicles.
Caveat
SGS inspection and an advance tariff-classification decision are mandatory [customs_notice_pdf].
Eligible tariff headings
Status
8702.21, 8702.31, 8702.40, 8703.60, 8703.70 and 8703.80.
Caveat
VIN, vehicle condition and hybridization degree control classification [customs_notice_pdf].
3 more rows in the full report

Business and investment incentives

The capped pilot assumes no investment-code benefit.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Business and investment incentives

Investment Law No. 2023-002
Benefit
Freedom/equal-treatment framework and EDBM facilitation.
Model
No automatic tax or cash benefit assumed [investment_law].
EDBM/Orinasa company formation
Benefit
Centralized online incorporation route.
Model
Obtain current certificate, fee and timing pack [edbm_creation].
2 more rows in the full report

Tax snapshot

Professional summaries are indicative; written Madagascar advice controls.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Tax snapshot

Corporate income tax
Reported
20% under the real regime above the stated turnover threshold
Model
Professional summary only; obtain DGI/local written treatment [pwc_cit][dgi].
VAT
Reported
20% standard
Model
Economics are VAT-exclusive; confirm registration, invoicing and recovery [pwc_vat][dgi].
3 more rows in the full report

Entity, licensing and premises

All material approvals are pre-launch gates.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Entity, licensing and premises

Entity/RCS/NIF/STAT
Requirement
Create local entity/establishment and obtain tax/statistical registrations.
Gate
EDBM/Orinasa certificate pack [edbm_creation].
Municipality / land use / occupancy
Requirement
Parcel-specific lawful workshop use, building, signage, access and nuisance controls.
Gate
Written commune/land-use approval before lease.
3 more rows in the full report

Labour and social security

Labour/OSH law is sourced; current rates and application require confirmation.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Labour and social security

Labour Code
Requirement
Contracts, hours, leave, termination, apprentices and foreign workers.
Source
NATLEX controlling-law route; verify amendments [labour_code].
Hygiene and safety
Requirement
Risk assessment, prevention, workplace environment, occupational medicine and inspection.
Source
Labour Code Titles IV/VIII [labour_code].
3 more rows in the full report

High-voltage and workshop safety

International standards are benchmarks, not proof of national adoption.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

High-voltage and workshop safety

Competence
Minimum
Two assessed technicians; task-level authorization; supervised practical assessment and rescue drill.
Status
No Madagascar-specific EV/HV technician credential was verified.
Safe state
Minimum
Identify, isolate, lock/tag, prove dead, secure keys and record re-energization.
Status
Manufacturer procedures plus ISO/UNECE benchmarks [iso_6469][un_r100].
Equipment
Minimum
Rated PPE/tools, CAT-rated meter/proving unit, barriers, rescue hook and inspection logs.
Status
National law, engineer and insurer requirements control.
EVSE
Minimum
Licensed electrical contractor; no energized charger repair by vehicle technicians.
Status
IEC 61851 and ISO 17409 benchmarks [iec_61851][iso_17409].
Power resilience
Minimum
UPS/conditioning for diagnostics; controlled outage procedure; safe isolation during unstable supply.
Status
Outage evidence makes site logging mandatory [imf_electricity].
Software/cybersecurity
Minimum
Lawful subscriptions, consent and audit trail; no unsupported security bypass.
Status
Supported VIN/task matrix required.

Battery, waste and transport

Traction-battery custody is out of launch scope.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Battery, waste and transport

12V batteries, tyres, fluids and e-waste
Launch Rule
Named authorized collector/recipient, segregation and manifests before first job.
Evidence
ONE/MECIE and Ministry waste route [mecie][one][medd_brs].
Damaged traction battery/module
Launch Rule
No custody, opening, storage, carriage or export before classification, fire plan, insurer, carrier and recipient.
Evidence
National route plus UN/Basel frameworks [medd_brs][un_tests][basel].
2 more rows in the full report

Data, consumer and warranty controls

Operate transparently as independent and protect VIN/customer/telemetry data.

Data, consumer and warranty controls

Personal data
Control
Purpose, minimization, legal basis/consent, access, retention, security and vendor controls for VIN/customer/telemetry.
Gate
Law 2014-038 compliance file [data_law].
Prior formalities / DPO
Control
Map declaration/authorization and DPO/registry requirements before processing.
Gate
Written CMIL/government route [data_law].
Cross-border diagnostic data
Control
Map recipients and transfer safeguards before OEM/cloud upload.
Gate
Data-transfer determination [data_law].
Consumer status
Control
Disclose independent status, quote, parts provenance, warranty, rework and dispute route.
Gate
Counsel-approved French/Malagasy terms.
OEM warranty
Control
Do not represent EVS as BYD-authorized; refer warranty/recall work.
Gate
VIN/task/warranty matrix and referral script [cfao_byd].

Operating model

Use one reversible partner bay with low inventory and measured power.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Operating model

Format
Recommendation
One managed bay inside an existing compliant Antananarivo workshop; mobile triage within controlled scope.
Commercial
Recommendation
MGA menu pricing, deposits and bilingual consent; no consumer-financing assumption.
Inventory
Recommendation
Fast-moving consumables only; parts ordered against VIN/deposit; no traction-pack inventory.
Quality
Recommendation
Digital intake, before/after scan, photo/thermal evidence, torque/inspection checklists and referral log.
Power
Recommendation
Logged supply, dedicated protection/earthing, UPS/conditioning and controlled outage workflow [imf_electricity].
Data
Recommendation
Law 2014-038 file, role access, retention schedule, encrypted transfer and vendor contracts [data_law].

Franchise pathway

Standalone conversion is deferred until evidence and payback gates pass.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Franchise pathway

0–90 days
Model
Managed partner clinic
Commitment
Reversible capex ≤MGA80m; no long lease, exclusivity or traction-pack inventory.
Post-pilot
Model
Licensed service cell
Commitment
Only after continuation gate and twelve-month evidence; task/VIN boundary remains.
Standalone franchise
Model
Deferred
Commitment
Requires verified active stock, sustained jobs, lawful waste route, stable power and ≤3-year base payback.

Pilot economics: annual steady state

All values are EVS assumptions in nominal MGA, VAT-exclusive and pre-tax.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Pilot economics: annual steady state

Cautious
Jobs
35
Aro Mga
700,000
Gross Margin Pct
55
Opex Mga
18,000,000
Revenue Mga
24,500,000
Gross Profit Mga
13,475,000
Ebitda Mga
-4,525,000
Payback Years
2 more rows in the full report

Pilot economics: 90 days

The base continuation case requires 20 paid jobs and positive EBITDA.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Pilot economics: 90 days

Cautious
Jobs 90d
9
Aro Mga
700,000
Gross Margin Pct
55
Opex Mga
4,500,000
Revenue Mga
6,300,000
Gross Profit Mga
3,465,000
Ebitda Mga
-1,035,000
2 more rows in the full report

Risks

Critical uncertainties are treated as gates rather than hidden inputs.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Risks

Passenger plug-in denominator absent
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
Matched registration/customs/dealer VIN extract; executable SOM zero.
Customs releases mistaken for active EV stock
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
Keep flow, registration and active-stock definitions separate [vehicle_imports_2023].
OEM/warranty capture
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Non-warranty scope, lawful tools and CFAO/LOXEA referral [cfao_byd].
Public charging claimed but unaudited
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Operator/site/connector audit; published count remains null [jovena][motor_show_2025].
Power outages/quality
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Logger test, UPS/conditioning and outage workflow [imf_electricity].
Customs process delay/interpretation
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
High
Mitigation
SGS and advance decision before customer promise [customs_notice_pdf].
No authorized battery recipient
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No battery custody before signed route.
Safety/fire/electric shock
Likelihood
Low
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No pack work; competence, isolation, rescue and insurer controls.
Data regulator/formality uncertainty
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
Medium
Mitigation
Written government/CMIL route before processing [data_law].
Paid demand below gate
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Deposits, fleet trial and day-90 stop.

Mitigations and stop rules

Reversible scope and explicit stops protect capital and safety.

Mitigations and stop rules

<300 matched active Analamanga plug-ins
Action
Do not launch fixed service cell; continue monitoring only.
Owner
EVS board
No compliant waste recipient or fire/insurer sign-off
Action
Exclude traction-battery custody and pack work.
Owner
Country lead / HV lead
Site power fails capacity/quality tests
Action
Reject site or fund bounded remediation before tooling.
Owner
Engineer / board
Fewer than 20 paid jobs in 90 days
Action
Stop or revert to mobile diagnostics only.
Owner
Pilot manager
Rework >5% or any HV/fire event
Action
Pause service, investigate and retrain; board restart approval.
Owner
Quality/HV lead
Base payback >3 years after twelve months
Action
No standalone conversion.
Owner
Finance / board

90-day entry plan

Evidence, compliance, power and capability close before fixed commitment.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day entry plan

0–15
Objective
Definitions and law
Actions
Obtain matched registration/customs/dealer VIN extract; commission entity/tax/customs/labour/workshop/fire/MECIE/waste/data/insurance matrices.
Owner
EVS board / Madagascar counsel
Deliverable
Evidence and compliance file.
4 more rows in the full report

Explicit go / no-go gates

All gates must pass; one material failure stops launch.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Explicit go / no-go gates

Market denominator
Go
Matched extract proves at least 300 active passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEVs in Antananarivo/Analamanga, separately classified.
No Go
Count below 300 or propulsion/class/region/active status unavailable.
7 more rows in the full report

Methodology

Evidence precedence, definitions, assumptions and validation are auditable.

Methodology

Define market
Method
Passenger/light-commercial BEV and PHEV only for four-wheel TAM; exclude HEV, motorcycles, dealer inventory, customs releases and announcements unless matched to active registrations.
Prioritize evidence
Method
Official/primary sources first; corporate evidence for launches; secondary reporting only where official numeric extraction was unavailable.
Reconcile definitions
Method
Separate customs release, registration, active stock, brand presence, taxi claim, charger announcement, connector and fuel station.
Size opportunity
Method
Current TAM null; gate SAM uses explicit assumptions; executable SOM zero.
Forecast
Method
Three annual-import share sensitivities against a static 2023 all-powertrain flow; no stock accumulation, scrappage, used-import or policy effect claimed.
Economics
Method
Nominal MGA, VAT-exclusive, pre-tax, no finance, FX conversion or incentive benefit; simple payback only when EBITDA is positive.
Validation
Method
Reparse JSON; root/schema/brand/source/citation/calculation/residue checks; duplicate search before Library create.

Evidence gaps and closure plan

Missing data is recorded with a specific closure action.

Evidence gaps and closure plan

Annual BEV/PHEV registrations by class
Impact
Cannot build national adoption history or flow forecast.
Closure
Registration/Customs extract with propulsion, class and year.
Active passenger/LCV plug-in stock by region
Impact
Current TAM/SAM cannot be measured.
Closure
Matched active VIN extract for Analamanga and national total.
Used/parallel-import plug-in flow and age
Impact
Out-of-warranty demand unknown.
Closure
Customs/registration VIN and first-registration data.
Commissioned public passenger-EV connectors
Impact
Charging coverage and partner mapping unknown.
Closure
Operator list plus physical audit: site, connector, power, status, access, tariff and uptime.
Independent workshop EV capability/count
Impact
Competitive density unknown.
Closure
Twenty-workshop Antananarivo field audit.
Vehicle-parc age distribution
Impact
Service intensity/out-of-warranty share unknown.
Closure
Registration age bands by class/propulsion.
Authorized traction-battery recipient and carrier
Impact
Battery custody and pack work prohibited.
Closure
Written ONE/competent-authority classification and signed recipient/carrier route.
Site power capacity and quality
Impact
Equipment uptime and safety unresolved.
Closure
Seven-day logger test, load study, earthing/protection audit and tariff/bill review.

Complete linked source register

Every source records publisher, publication date where available and access date.

Complete linked source register

customs_notice
Publisher
Madagascar Directorate-General of Customs
Publication Date
2025-05-08
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.douanes.gov.mg/avis-public/modalites-dapplication-de-lexemption-des-droits-et-taxes-pour-les-vehicules-et-motos-electriques-vehicules-electriques-hybrides-neufs-suivant-la-loi-de-finances-2023/
Role
Official landing page for Public Notice No. 082-2025. The benefit is subject to inspection and an advance tariff-classification decision.
customs_notice_pdf
Publisher
Madagascar Directorate-General of Customs
Publication Date
2025-05-08
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.douanes.gov.mg/srcs/uploads/2025/05/N%C2%B0082-2025-MEF-SC-DGD-DLV-STDA.pdf
Role
Controlling notice: new electric/electric-hybrid vehicles and new electric motorcycles are exempt; SGS inspection and an advance tariff decision are mandatory.
customs_dashboard_2025
Publisher
Madagascar Directorate-General of Customs
Publication Date
2025-12-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.douanes.gov.mg/stat/tableau-de-bord-de-la-direction-generale-des-douanes-decembre-2025/
Role
Official statistics route. Public dashboard includes vehicles released for consumption, but no reliable propulsion/class extract was obtained for this report.
customs_etariff
Publisher
Madagascar Directorate-General of Customs
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.douanes.gov.mg/centre-dinformation/
Role
Official route for tariff, customs code and advance-classification decisions. Written VIN/HS treatment controls landed-cost pricing.
vehicle_imports_2023
Publisher
2424.mg citing Madagascar Customs
Publication Date
2024-08-17
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://2424.mg/importation-plus-de-4-600-vehicules-neufs-mis-a-la-consommation-en-2023/
Role
Secondary report of official dashboard figures: 4,606 new and 9,647 other vehicles in 2023 versus 4,994 new and 6,798 other vehicles in 2022. No propulsion split or active-stock status.
instat_q3_2019
Publisher
INSTAT Madagascar
Publication Date
2019-10-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.instat.mg/p/immatriculation-de-vehicules-dantananarivo-3eme-trim-2019
Role
Official historical quarterly flow: 3,185 newly registered vehicles; 41.1% passenger cars. Not national or propulsion-specific.
instat_q4_2019
Publisher
INSTAT Madagascar
Publication Date
2020-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.instat.mg/p/immatriculation-de-vehicules-dantananarivo-4eme-trimestre-2019
Role
Official historical quarterly flow: 2,300 newly registered vehicles; 63.8% described as new. Not a current EV series.
instat_q3_2020
Publisher
INSTAT Madagascar
Publication Date
2020-10-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.instat.mg/p/immatriculation-de-vehicules-dantananarivo-3eme-trimestre-2020
Role
Official historical quarterly flow: 1,463 registrations, 83% new, 15% used and 2.1% province transfers. No propulsion split.
instat_q4_2020
Publisher
INSTAT Madagascar
Publication Date
2021-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.instat.mg/p/immatriculation-de-vehicules-dantananarivo-4eme-trimestre-2020
Role
Official historical quarterly flow: 4,432 registrations versus 1,463 in Q3; the source notes pandemic-related processing effects.
cfao_byd
Publisher
CFAO Group
Publication Date
2024-10-10
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.cfaogroup.com/en/loxea-becomes-the-pioneer-of-electric-solutions-in-madagascar/
Role
Official corporate evidence: LOXEA offers 100% electric BYD vehicles for rental or purchase at Alaria plus charger installation, solar, servicing, assistance, maintenance and parts. No volume.
cfao_byd_fr
Publisher
CFAO Group
Publication Date
2024-10-10
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.cfaogroup.com/fr/loxea-devient-le-pionnier-des-solutions-electriques-a-madagascar/
Role
French corporate corroboration of the market entry and service bundle; not a registration, stock or charging census.
motor_show_2025
Publisher
L’Express de Madagascar via allAfrica
Publication Date
2025-09-25
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://fr.allafrica.com/stories/202509250159.html
Role
Secondary report quotes an importer saying 15 EVs were sold in one month for taxi use and claims a national JOVENA charging network. Both require primary transaction/site verification.
jovena
Publisher
JOVENA Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.jovena.mg/
Role
Operator website reviewed for public charging evidence. No dated site list, connector count, power, access, tariff or uptime inventory was located.
nissan_mg
Publisher
Nissan Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://nissan.mg/
Role
Official current market-presence page reviewed; no EV model or EV-capable service-volume claim was inferred.
omh
Publisher
OMH Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://omh.mg/
Role
Official petroleum-sector regulator route. Fuel-station presence is not evidence of commissioned EV charging.
fuel_stations
Publisher
2424.mg citing OMH
Publication Date
2025-02-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://2424.mg/distribution-petroliere-la-revision-des-textes-regissant-la-construction-et-lexploitation-des-stations-services-en-gestation/
Role
Secondary report citing OMH: 336 fuel stations, including 107 in Analamanga. Used only for corridor/partner context, never as charger count.
worldbank_ascent
Publisher
World Bank
Publication Date
2026-05-06
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/05/06/madagascar-new-world-bank-program-set-to-provide-reliable-and-affordable-energy-to-over-2-5-million-people-by-2030
Role
US$250m ASCENT programme; reports 36% connected to reliable electricity and planned grid/off-grid expansion. Targets are not current workshop supply.
imf_electricity
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Publication Date
2025-03-31
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/03/31/the-electricity-sector-and-jirama-republic-of-madagascar-565708
Role
Official analysis: 36% electricity access and recurrent outages, averaging six hours/day in Antananarivo in October 2024. Site tests still control.
imf_review
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Publication Date
2025-02-26
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/02/26/pr-2544-madagascar-imf-completes-1st-rev-under-ecf-rsf-and-concludes-2024-art-iv-consultation
Role
Official macro vintage: 4.2% estimated growth in 2024 and 4.6% projected in 2025; downside risks and JIRAMA reform remain material.
imf_second_review
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Publication Date
2025-07-03
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/07/03/pr-25239-madagascar-imf-completes-2nd-rev-under-ecf-and-rsf-arrang
Role
Official update notes adoption of a JIRAMA recovery plan and pervasive electricity disruptions; not an EV-demand input.
worldbank_transport
Publisher
World Bank
Publication Date
2026-04-28
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/04/28/madagascar-s-transport-infrastructure-gets-a-major-boost-with-world-bank-group-support
Role
US$200m multimodal transport/logistics project and US$1.1bn total World Bank transport financing context. No electric-bus or EV fleet count is asserted.
meh_prirtem
Publisher
Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons, Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://meh.mg/prirtem/
Role
Official project page describes Antananarivo–Toamasina and Antananarivo–Antsirabe transmission works. Project scope is not site readiness.
meh_tmr
Publisher
Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons, Madagascar
Publication Date
2024-08-07
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://meh.mg/tetikasa-tana-medium-ring/
Role
Official project announcement: eight substations and 185 km of 90 kV line are planned for Analamanga and connected regions. Announced infrastructure is not commissioned supply.
meh_decim
Publisher
Ministry of Energy and Hydrocarbons, Madagascar
Publication Date
2025-11-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://meh.mg/decim-2/
Role
Official project announcement: 52 localities in seven regions and more than 225,000 people targeted within 24 months. This is a target, not current access.
ader
Publisher
ADER Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://ader.mg/
Role
Official rural-electrification agency route. No candidate-site power-quality conclusion is drawn.
ore_tariff
Publisher
Electricity Regulation Office, Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.ore.mg/jargon.html
Role
Official tariff terminology includes BT 380/220/110 V and MT categories; actual service capacity, phase availability and power quality require engineering tests.
edbm
Publisher
EDBM
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.edbm.mg/
Role
Official investment-promotion and facilitation route.
edbm_creation
Publisher
EDBM
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.edbm.mg/creation-de-societe/
Role
Official online Orinasa route and legal-form guidance for SARL, SA, SARLU and civil companies. Obtain a current certificate/fee pack.
investment_law
Publisher
UNCTAD Investment Policy Hub / Government of Madagascar
Publication Date
2023-07-27
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://investmentpolicy.unctad.org/investment-laws/laws/367/madagascar-madagascar-investment-law-2023
Role
Text establishes freedom/equal treatment principles and confirms EDBM as the investment-promotion agency; it does not automatically confer pilot tax benefits.
dgi
Publisher
DGI Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.impots.mg/
Role
Official tax-administration route. Current written treatment controls tax and filing decisions.
pwc_cit
Publisher
PwC Worldwide Tax Summaries
Publication Date
2025-11-18
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/madagascar/corporate/taxes-on-corporate-income
Role
Professional summary: 20% CIT under the real regime above the stated turnover threshold. Indicative only; current DGI/local advice controls.
pwc_vat
Publisher
PwC Worldwide Tax Summaries
Publication Date
2025-11-18
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/madagascar/corporate/other-taxes
Role
Professional summary: standard VAT 20%; employer social-security contribution capped at 13% of eight times the legal minimum salary. Obtain written classification.
cnaps
Publisher
CNaPS
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.cnaps.mg/
Role
Official social-security administration route.
cnaps_payment
Publisher
CNaPS
Publication Date
2025-06-27
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.cnaps.mg/fr/actualite/cnaps-impact-l-innovation-sociale-en-action
Role
Official evidence that employers can pay contributions via online declaration and mobile payment. Rates/classification still require CNaPS confirmation.
labour_code
Publisher
ILO NATLEX / Government of Madagascar
Publication Date
2004-07-28
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://natlex.ilo.org/dyn/natlex2/r/natlex/fe/details?p3_isn=70303
Role
Official-law repository summary: hygiene, safety, work environment, occupational medicine and inspection are covered. Confirm later amendments and application.
ilo_ratification
Publisher
International Labour Organization
Publication Date
2023-06-20
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.ilo.org/fr/resource/actualites/madagascar-ratifie-trois-conventions-de-loit-sur-la-securite-et-la-sante-au
Role
C155, C161 and C187 entered into force for Madagascar on 15 June 2024; this does not create an EV/HV technician credential.
ilo_profile
Publisher
International Labour Organization
Publication Date
2023-03-24
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.ilo.org/fr/publications/profil-national-de-securite-et-sante-au-travail-de-madagascar
Role
Tripartite-validated national OSH profile; use as compliance context, not substitute for site risk assessment.
mecie
Publisher
Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Madagascar
Publication Date
2025-01-28
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.environnement.mg/documents/fixant-les-regles-et-procedures-de-levaluation-environnementale-et-sociale-pour-la-mise-en-compatibilite-des-investissements-avec-lenvironnement-ou-mecie/
Role
Current official environmental-screening framework. Obtain written ONE categorisation and permit/non-requirement before site commitment.
one
Publisher
Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Madagascar
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.environnement.mg/organisme-rattache/office-national-pour-lenvironnement/
Role
Official description of ONE as the MECIE implementation body and environmental one-stop shop.
data_law
Publisher
Digital Governance Unit / CNLEGIS
Publication Date
2015-01-09
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://digital.gov.mg/en/2022/07/05/loi-n-2014-038-sur-la-protection-des-donnees-a-caractere-personnel/
Role
Official republication: processing in Madagascar is covered; declaration/authorization, rights, security, DPO and transfer rules apply. Confirm CMIL operating route.
medd_brs
Publisher
Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Madagascar
Publication Date
2025-05-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.environnement.mg/actualites/madagascar-reaffirme-son-engagement-pour-une-gestion-durable-des-produits-chimiques-et-dechets-aux-conferences-brs-a-geneve/
Role
Official policy evidence on hazardous chemicals/waste conventions. It does not identify an authorized traction-battery recipient.
basel_madagascar
Publisher
Basel Convention Secretariat
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.basel.int/Countries/Countryfactsheets/tabid/1293/ItemId/2458/Default.aspx
Role
Official Convention-country route. Current competent-authority approvals govern hazardous-waste movements.
iso_6469
Publisher
ISO
Publication Date
2021-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.iso.org/standard/45477.html
Role
International benchmark; Madagascar adoption/legal effect is not assumed.
iso_17409
Publisher
ISO
Publication Date
2020-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.iso.org/standard/68474.html
Role
International EV power-transfer benchmark; local electrical approval controls.
iec_61851
Publisher
IEC
Publication Date
2017-02-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/33644
Role
International EVSE benchmark; not a Madagascar permit or electrician licence.
un_r100
Publisher
UNECE
Publication Date
2022-03-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://unece.org/transport/documents/2022/03/standards/un-regulation-no-100-rev3
Role
Vehicle electric-powertrain safety benchmark; national applicability requires confirmation.
un_tests
Publisher
UNECE
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/rev8-files
Role
Battery transport test framework; carrier, routing and competent-authority approvals remain necessary.
ilo_osh
Publisher
International Labour Organization
Publication Date
2001-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.ilo.org/resource/other/guidelines-occupational-safety-and-health-management-systems-ilo-osh-2001
Role
Management-system benchmark; not a substitute for Madagascar labour and OSH law.
basel
Publisher
Basel Convention Secretariat
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.basel.int/TheConvention/Overview/TextoftheConvention/tabid/1275/Default.aspx
Role
International hazardous-waste movement framework; national competent-authority procedures control.
evs_model
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-11
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Href
https://www.evsworldwide.com/
Role
All assumptions, gates, sensitivities and economics are EVS decision inputs, not sourced market facts.

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