Market intelligence/Africa/Report available
Zambia.
EVS Zambia EV Service Centre Market Entry
Decision-grade Zambia assessment separating registered all-class EV observations, customs import flows, passenger BEVs/PHEVs, non-plug-in hybrids, motorcycles, buses, conversion projects, charging plans and policy targets.
Registered all-class EVs
269
RTSA-attributed all-class observation at end-July 2025; not passenger stock.
Verified connectors
—
No authoritative public-connector census located.
Jobs/year
324
Gate-planning jobs/year; not booked demand.
Years
4.412
Base simple payback on K300,000 reversible capex.
01/The verdict in full
Executive summary
- Conditional go only for registry/demand diligence and a scheduled Greater Lusaka partner clinic. No current authoritative passenger-BEV/PHEV stock series was located.
- RTSA-attributed registered EVs increased from 62 in July 2023 to 269 by end-July 2025. The 269 is all-class and has no accessible passenger, body or BEV/PHEV split. [rtsa_growth] [rtsa_crosscheck]
- ZRA-attributed imports totalled 896 from January 2024 through July 2025. Imports are not registrations or active stock and are not added to 269. [zra_imports]
- National passenger TAM and public-connector count remain null. The 324-job / K1,296,000 SAM activates only after a matched extract proves at least 500 Greater Lusaka passenger/light-commercial plug-ins.
- No standalone centre, franchise sale or traction-pack work.
02
Board Decision
Authorise a matched RTSA/ZRA extract, legal/technical diligence and paid-demand validation. Release no more than K300,000 reversible capex only after every gate passes. Base steady state is 100 jobs, K400,000 revenue, K68,000 EBITDA and 4.41-year simple payback; all operating inputs are EVS assumptions.
Decision Summary
- Decision
- CONDITIONAL GO — registry and paid-demand diligence, then a scheduled Greater Lusaka partner clinic
- Reason
- The only observable registration count is all-class and unsegmented.
- Decision
- NO-GO now
- Reason
- The passenger denominator and charger census are missing; fixed premises cannot be justified.
- Decision
- HOLD
- Reason
- No opening, removal, damaged-pack custody or shipment without written approvals and competence.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
03
Market size
The best available observation is 269 registered all-class EVs at end-July 2025. It is not a passenger service denominator. A separate 896-import customs flow is a supply signal, not stock. [rtsa_growth] [zra_imports]
Registrations and customs imports are separate grains.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Market KPIs
- Value
- 269
- Unit
- all-class EVs
- Period
- End-July 2025
- Evidence
- RTSA-attributed; no body/propulsion/status split [rtsa_growth].
- Value
- 62
- Unit
- all-class EVs
- Period
- July 2023
- Evidence
- RTSA-attributed baseline [rtsa_growth] [rtsa_crosscheck].
- Value
- 207
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- July 2023 to July 2025
- Evidence
- 269 minus 62; 334% growth on baseline [rtsa_growth].
- Value
- 896
- Unit
- customs import entries/vehicles
- Period
- January 2024 to July 2025
- Evidence
- ZRA-attributed flow; not registration or active stock [zra_imports].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- Current
- Evidence
- No accessible separated RTSA series located.
- Value
- —
- Unit
- connectors
- Period
- Current
- Evidence
- No national audited census located.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Definition-sensitive Zambia observations
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 62
- Scope
- All-class EV observation; no passenger or BEV/PHEV split [rtsa_growth].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 896
- Scope
- Customs flow; not active stock and not comparable to registration [zra_imports].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 269
- Scope
- All-class registered EV observation [rtsa_growth].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- —
- Scope
- Not available by active status, body, location, age or warranty.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
04
Definition reconciliation
Registered EVs, customs imports, passenger BEVs/PHEVs, HEVs/MHEVs, motorcycles, buses, conversions and charger plans are not interchangeable.
Definition reconciliation
- Included
- No current authoritative separated series located
- Use
- National TAM and adoption share remain null.
- Included
- All-class RTSA-attributed observation at end-July 2025
- Use
- Observable upper-bound proxy only; not passenger TAM.
- Included
- Customs flow from Jan-2024 through Jul-2025
- Use
- Supply signal only; not registered or active parc.
- Included
- Self-charging/non-plug-in electrified vehicles
- Use
- Competitor/skills context; excluded from plug-in pool [toyota_hybrid] [toyota_mhev].
- Included
- Separate vehicle classes and projects
- Use
- Excluded from passenger/light-commercial service pool unless separately contracted.
- Included
- No auditable connector census
- Use
- Plans/announcements are not delivered, accessible or operational counts.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
05
Forecast scenarios
20%, 40% and 65% five-year cases grow the 269 all-class observation. They are EVS capacity tests, not official passenger forecasts.
Five-year EVS capacity cases from 269; not passenger forecasts.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Five-year all-class registration planning cases
- Annual Growth Pct
- 20
- Planning stock end-2030
- 669
- Interpretation
- Five-year capacity case from the all-class 269 observation; not passenger forecast.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 40
- Planning stock end-2030
- 1,447
- Interpretation
- Capacity case requiring repeat registrations, service access and charging.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 65
- Planning stock end-2030
- 3,290
- Interpretation
- Stress case; not used to approve fixed premises.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
06
Charging infrastructure
No authoritative national connector census was located. The ten-site Subilo statement was a plan, not proof of delivered, operational or public access. [subilo_charging]
Plans are not audited connectors, power, uptime or access.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Charging evidence and unknowns
- Value
- —
- Unit
- connectors
- Period
- Current
- Status
- No national audited count located.
- Value
- 10
- Unit
- planned sites
- Period
- May 2023
- Status
- Plan only; not treated as delivered or operational [subilo_charging].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- tariff
- Period
- Current
- Status
- No EV-specific tariff inferred; ERB/ZESCO written determination required [erb_tariff] [zesco_tariff].
- Value
- 1.35
- Unit
- ZMW/kWh
- Period
- 2026
- Status
- Prosumer reference, not EV charging tariff [net_metering].
- Value
- 7
- Unit
- hours/day average retail supply
- Period
- June 2025
- Status
- Dated ministerial statement; design for current site-specific supply and backup [grid_supply].
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
07
Vehicle parc age and service demand
No authoritative passenger-BEV/PHEV age, warranty or location distribution was located. A matched RTSA/ZRA extract is the first demand-control gate.
Vehicle parc and service demand
- Value
- 269
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- Small and unsegmented; obtain RTSA extract [rtsa_growth].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- No authoritative age/warranty distribution located.
- Value
- 896
- Unit
- imports
- Implication
- Strong activity signal, but customs entries do not establish active serviceable stock [zra_imports].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- units
- Implication
- HEV/MHEV skills are adjacent but not plug-in TAM [toyota_hybrid] [toyota_mhev].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- site availability
- Implication
- Audit current feeder, phase, capacity, outages and backup before clinic [grid_supply].
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
08
Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM
National passenger-EV TAM is not quantified. The observable proxy and launch-gate case separate sourced observations from EVS assumptions; executable SOM is zero.
Assumption-led capacity case; executable SOM zero.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Sizing assumptions
- Value
- 269
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- RTSA-attributed end-July 2025 observation [rtsa_growth].
- Value
- 0.75
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS haircut; not a Zambia statistic.
- Value
- 0.9
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS planning haircut.
- Value
- 0.7
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS planning assumption pending RTSA geography.
- Value
- 0.6
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS assumption pending warranty/fleet access.
- Value
- 1.2
- Unit
- jobs/active vehicle/year
- Basis
- EVS blended diagnostic/chassis assumption.
- Value
- 4,000
- Unit
- ZMW/job
- Basis
- Replace with paid Zambia observations.
- Value
- 500
- Unit
- registered passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEV
- Basis
- EVS density gate, not estimate.
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- jobs
- Basis
- Deliberately zero.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
TAM / SAM / SOM
- Vehicles
- —
- Jobs Per Year
- —
- Revenue ZMW
- —
- Status
- Not quantified: active passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEV denominator unavailable.
- Vehicles
- 76
- Jobs Per Year
- 91
- Revenue ZMW
- 364,000
- Status
- 269 × 75% light-duty × 90% active × 70% Lusaka × 60% reach × 1.20 events; not TAM.
- Vehicles
- 270
- Jobs Per Year
- 324
- Revenue ZMW
- 1,296,000
- Status
- 500 separated registrations × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
09
Customers and fleets
Prioritise supported private imports and paid corporate/mining/tourism fleet trials. Public vehicles are not accessible revenue without procurement and warranty permission.
Customer segments
- Need
- Pre-purchase inspection, scan, charging, 12V and chassis evidence
- Priority
- High only for supported VINs.
- Need
- Scheduled inspection and uptime evidence
- Priority
- High through paid fleet trial.
- Need
- Route/charging readiness and condition reporting
- Priority
- Medium; Lusaka–Livingstone corridor.
- Need
- Documented procurement and safe diagnostics
- Priority
- Medium only with contract/warranty permission.
- Need
- Separate equipment, competence and depot support
- Priority
- Excluded from Phase 1.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Fleet segments
- Entry Product
- Paid inspection and uptime trial
- Evidence Gate
- Named VINs, duty cycle, charger audit and service contract.
- Entry Product
- Condition report and charging-readiness package
- Evidence Gate
- Paid 90-day trial and route evidence.
- Entry Product
- Non-warranty overflow only
- Evidence Gate
- Procurement, insurer and OEM permission.
- Entry Product
- Chassis and evidence-grade triage
- Evidence Gate
- Written scope and lawful tool/data access.
- Entry Product
- Referral only
- Evidence Gate
- Separate vehicle-class business case.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
10
Brands and models
No authoritative passenger-EV brand/model registration table was located. Named models are availability signals, not market shares.
Priority brands — no audited market shares located
- Brand
- BYD
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Official Zambia page lists Atto 3, Dolphin and Seal; no sales share [byd].
- Brand
- Toyota
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- CFAO lists RAV4 and Corolla Cross HEVs; excluded from plug-in pool [toyota_hybrid].
- Brand
- Toyota
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Hilux and Fortuner 48V MHEVs; excluded from plug-in pool [toyota_mhev].
- Brand
- Spartan and mixed imports
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Availability signal only; no authoritative shares [spartan].
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Priority models
- Model
- Atto 3
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Official Zambia availability/service signal; warranty-controlled [byd].
- Model
- Dolphin
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Official Zambia availability/service signal [byd].
- Model
- Seal
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Official Zambia availability/service signal [byd].
- Model
- RAV4 / Corolla Cross
- Powertrain
- HEV
- Signal
- Non-plug-in; adjacent service competitor, excluded from plug-in TAM [toyota_hybrid].
- Model
- Hilux / Fortuner 48V
- Powertrain
- MHEV
- Signal
- Non-plug-in; excluded from plug-in TAM [toyota_mhev].
- Model
- Used BEV/PHEV imports
- Powertrain
- BEV/PHEV by VIN
- Signal
- No authoritative model ranking; classify before booking.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
11In the full report
Competitive landscape
BYD, CFAO, authorised multi-brand dealers and strong all-makes independents make a partner-led entry more rational than a new fixed workshop.
This section is in the full report.
12In the full report
Priority geography
Greater Lusaka is the only fixed operating candidate; Copperbelt, Solwezi and Livingstone are later collection/fleet corridors, not second-site cases.
This section is in the full report.
13In the full report
Consumer incentives
Customs-duty relief supports adoption, but exact current HS treatment, VAT and hybrid excise must be confirmed. No cash purchase grant is modelled.
This section is in the full report.
14In the full report
Business, tax and investment incentives
Economics are VAT-exclusive and pre-tax. No grant, reduced rate or customs rebate is banked without written approval.
This section is in the full report.
15In the full report
Labour, licensing and workshop regulation
Entity, tax, premises/fire, factory/OHS, electrical/ERB/ZESCO/ZABS, environmental, waste, data, consumer and insurance evidence are hard gates.
This section is in the full report.
16In the full report
High-voltage safety
HV authority is task-specific, documented and auditable; training alone does not authorise unsupported work.
This section is in the full report.
17In the full report
Battery and waste
Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, removal, damaged-pack custody and shipment.
This section is in the full report.
18In the full report
Recommended service portfolio
Lead with condition reports, scans, 12V/charging triage and EV-aware chassis work.
This section is in the full report.
19In the full report
Franchise and operating model
Use scheduled clinic days inside a compliant local partner workshop. Do not sell territory or sign a standalone lease.
This section is in the full report.
20In the full report
Pilot economics
All pricing, volume, margin, opex and capex inputs are EVS assumptions. The partner-clinic format protects downside.
This section is in the full report.
21In the full report
Risks and mitigations
The dominant risks are a missing passenger denominator, treating customs flow as stock and mistaking plans for accessible paid demand.
This section is in the full report.
22In the full report
90-day entry plan
Registry/legal proof precedes deposits, tools and paid work.
This section is in the full report.
23In the full report
Explicit go / no-go gates
Failure on denominator, paid demand, compliance, capability, safety or economics stops launch.
This section is in the full report.
24
Methodology
Sourced facts, attributed figures, conflicts, missing fields and EVS assumptions remain visibly separated.
Methodology
- Method
- Zambia primary sources first; RTSA/ZRA claims retained as attributed reporting where direct tables were unavailable.
- Method
- Separate all-class registrations, customs imports, passenger plug-ins, HEV/MHEV, motorcycles, buses, projects and charger plans.
- Method
- Leave national passenger-EV TAM null until matched RTSA/ZRA extract.
- Method
- 269 × 75% light-duty × 90% active × 70% Lusaka × 60% reach × 1.20 events; assumption-led, not TAM.
- Method
- 500 separated Greater Lusaka plug-ins × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events.
- Method
- Zero before hard gates.
- Method
- Five-year capacity cases from 269 all-class registrations; not official passenger forecasts.
- Method
- VAT-exclusive EVS assumptions; capacity remains within gate SAM.
- Method
- JSON, schema, formulas, citations, links, branding, definition control and template residue.
Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
25
Complete linked source register
52 linked sources record publisher, publication/access dates, scope and caveats.
26
EVS Board Position
CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a scheduled Greater Lusaka partner clinic; NO-GO standalone/franchise; HOLD traction-pack work.
Method / Sources and confidence
Where every figure
comes from.
Registrations, charging and legal requirements are read from primary sources. Where no official dataset exists, the model and its assumptions are published instead of a single unexplained number. This report is a dated snapshot: August 2026.
- 01EV growth in Zambia surges 334% after duty removal
- 02Electric vehicle imports reportedly surge after Zambia scraps customs duties
- 03Zambia customs-duty removal spurs EV adoption
- 042023 Budget Address
- 05Customs and Excise (Amendment) Act, 2023
- 06Customs and Excise (Amendment) Bill, 2023
- 072024 National Budget
- 08Statement on implementation of the 2024 National Budget
- 092026 Budget Address
- 10Importation of goods
- 11Tax Information
- 12Practice Note No. 1 of 2026
- 13Investment incentives are for both local and foreign investors
- 14What is a local company?
- 15Fees and forms
- 16Regulatory Services Centre
- 17Revision of licence requirements
- 18Additional licensing requirements
- 19ERB takes enforcement action against non-compliant energy operators
- 20Board decision on ZESCO tariffs, 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2027
- 21ZESCO tariff schedule
- 22Extension of emergency period and ZESCO emergency tariffs
- 23Ministerial statement on electricity supply
- 24Approved 2026 net-metering tariffs
- 25Zambia launches first pay-as-you-go EV charging stations
- 26Zambia unveils electric vehicle and solar charger
- 27ZEMA services
- 28Waste Management Licence
- 29Environmental licensing
- 30Environmental impact assessment
- 31Zambia Bureau of Standards
- 32Factories Act
- 33Occupational Health and Safety Act, 2025
- 34Data Protection Commission FAQ
- 35Consumer complaints
- 36Formal-sector contributions
- 37Employer compliance
- 38BYD Zambia customer care
- 39CFAO Mobility Zambia hybrid range
- 40CFAO Mobility Zambia Hilux and Fortuner mild hybrid
- 41Southern Cross Motors
- 42Vehicle service in Zambia
- 43Book a vehicle service
- 44AUVIV authorised service centres
- 45Spartan Industries
- 46ISO 6469 electrified road-vehicle safety
- 47ISO 17409 conductive power-transfer safety
- 48IEC 61851-1 conductive charging systems
- 49UN Manual of Tests and Criteria
- 50Basel Convention overview
- 51ILO-OSH 2001 guidelines
- 52EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model
Reports are commercial research, not legal, tax or investment advice.
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