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Zambia

EVS Zambia EV Service Centre Market Entry

Decision-grade Zambia assessment separating registered all-class EV observations, customs import flows, passenger BEVs/PHEVs, non-plug-in hybrids, motorcycles, buses, conversion projects, charging plans and policy targets.

Snapshot: 11 August 202633-page full report
Talk to the expansion team
Registered all-class EVs
269

RTSA-attributed all-class observation at end-July 2025; not passenger stock.

Verified connectors
—

No authoritative public-connector census located.

Jobs/year
324

Gate-planning jobs/year; not booked demand.

Years
4.412

Base simple payback on K300,000 reversible capex.

Executive summary

The verdict in full

  • Conditional go only for registry/demand diligence and a scheduled Greater Lusaka partner clinic. No current authoritative passenger-BEV/PHEV stock series was located.
  • RTSA-attributed registered EVs increased from 62 in July 2023 to 269 by end-July 2025. The 269 is all-class and has no accessible passenger, body or BEV/PHEV split. [rtsa_growth] [rtsa_crosscheck]
  • ZRA-attributed imports totalled 896 from January 2024 through July 2025. Imports are not registrations or active stock and are not added to 269. [zra_imports]
  • National passenger TAM and public-connector count remain null. The 324-job / K1,296,000 SAM activates only after a matched extract proves at least 500 Greater Lusaka passenger/light-commercial plug-ins.
  • No standalone centre, franchise sale or traction-pack work.

Board Decision

Authorise a matched RTSA/ZRA extract, legal/technical diligence and paid-demand validation. Release no more than K300,000 reversible capex only after every gate passes. Base steady state is 100 jobs, K400,000 revenue, K68,000 EBITDA and 4.41-year simple payback; all operating inputs are EVS assumptions.

Decision Summary

Market entry
Decision
CONDITIONAL GO — registry and paid-demand diligence, then a scheduled Greater Lusaka partner clinic
Reason
The only observable registration count is all-class and unsegmented.
Standalone centre / franchise
Decision
NO-GO now
Reason
The passenger denominator and charger census are missing; fixed premises cannot be justified.
Traction-battery work
Decision
HOLD
Reason
No opening, removal, damaged-pack custody or shipment without written approvals and competence.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Market size

The best available observation is 269 registered all-class EVs at end-July 2025. It is not a passenger service denominator. A separate 896-import customs flow is a supply signal, not stock. [rtsa_growth] [zra_imports]

Zambia definition-sensitive EV observations

Registrations and customs imports are separate grains.

62
896
269
0
Jul-2023 registrations
Jan-2024–Jul-2025 imports
Jul-2025 registrations
Current passenger stock

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Market KPIs

Registered electric vehicles
Value
269
Unit
all-class EVs
Period
End-July 2025
Evidence
RTSA-attributed; no body/propulsion/status split [rtsa_growth].
Registered electric vehicles
Value
62
Unit
all-class EVs
Period
July 2023
Evidence
RTSA-attributed baseline [rtsa_growth] [rtsa_crosscheck].
Observed increase
Value
207
Unit
vehicles
Period
July 2023 to July 2025
Evidence
269 minus 62; 334% growth on baseline [rtsa_growth].
EV imports
Value
896
Unit
customs import entries/vehicles
Period
January 2024 to July 2025
Evidence
ZRA-attributed flow; not registration or active stock [zra_imports].
Authoritative passenger BEV/PHEV stock
Value
—
Unit
vehicles
Period
Current
Evidence
No accessible separated RTSA series located.
Authoritative public charging connectors
Value
—
Unit
connectors
Period
Current
Evidence
No national audited census located.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Definition-sensitive Zambia observations

Jul-2023 registrations
BEV
—
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
62
Scope
All-class EV observation; no passenger or BEV/PHEV split [rtsa_growth].
Jan-2024–Jul-2025 imports
BEV
—
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
896
Scope
Customs flow; not active stock and not comparable to registration [zra_imports].
Jul-2025 registrations
BEV
—
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
269
Scope
All-class registered EV observation [rtsa_growth].
Current passenger stock
BEV
—
PHEV (unavailable)
—
BEV used in model
—
Scope
Not available by active status, body, location, age or warranty.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Definition reconciliation

Registered EVs, customs imports, passenger BEVs/PHEVs, HEVs/MHEVs, motorcycles, buses, conversions and charger plans are not interchangeable.

Definition reconciliation

Passenger BEV/PHEV stock
Included
No current authoritative separated series located
Use
National TAM and adoption share remain null.
269 registered EVs
Included
All-class RTSA-attributed observation at end-July 2025
Use
Observable upper-bound proxy only; not passenger TAM.
896 EV imports
Included
Customs flow from Jan-2024 through Jul-2025
Use
Supply signal only; not registered or active parc.
Toyota HEV/MHEV models
Included
Self-charging/non-plug-in electrified vehicles
Use
Competitor/skills context; excluded from plug-in pool [toyota_hybrid] [toyota_mhev].
Electric motorcycles, buses, trucks and conversions
Included
Separate vehicle classes and projects
Use
Excluded from passenger/light-commercial service pool unless separately contracted.
Public charging
Included
No auditable connector census
Use
Plans/announcements are not delivered, accessible or operational counts.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Forecast scenarios

20%, 40% and 65% five-year cases grow the 269 all-class observation. They are EVS capacity tests, not official passenger forecasts.

All-class registration planning cases

Five-year EVS capacity cases from 269; not passenger forecasts.

Cautious669
Base1,447
HighBase case3,290

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Five-year all-class registration planning cases

Cautious
Annual Growth Pct
20
Planning stock end-2030
669
Interpretation
Five-year capacity case from the all-class 269 observation; not passenger forecast.
Base
Annual Growth Pct
40
Planning stock end-2030
1,447
Interpretation
Capacity case requiring repeat registrations, service access and charging.
High
Annual Growth Pct
65
Planning stock end-2030
3,290
Interpretation
Stress case; not used to approve fixed premises.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Get the full Zambia analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Charging infrastructure

No authoritative national connector census was located. The ten-site Subilo statement was a plan, not proof of delivered, operational or public access. [subilo_charging]

Charging evidence and gaps

Plans are not audited connectors, power, uptime or access.

0
10
0
1.35
7
Authoritative public connectors
Subilo Lusaka site plan
EV-specific retail tariff
2026 net-metering reference tariff
Grid supply risk signal

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Charging evidence and unknowns

Authoritative public connectors
Value
—
Unit
connectors
Period
Current
Status
No national audited count located.
Subilo Lusaka site plan
Value
10
Unit
planned sites
Period
May 2023
Status
Plan only; not treated as delivered or operational [subilo_charging].
EV-specific retail tariff
Value
—
Unit
tariff
Period
Current
Status
No EV-specific tariff inferred; ERB/ZESCO written determination required [erb_tariff] [zesco_tariff].
2026 net-metering reference tariff
Value
1.35
Unit
ZMW/kWh
Period
2026
Status
Prosumer reference, not EV charging tariff [net_metering].
Grid supply risk signal
Value
7
Unit
hours/day average retail supply
Period
June 2025
Status
Dated ministerial statement; design for current site-specific supply and backup [grid_supply].

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Vehicle parc age and service demand

No authoritative passenger-BEV/PHEV age, warranty or location distribution was located. A matched RTSA/ZRA extract is the first demand-control gate.

Vehicle parc and service demand

All-class registered EV observation
Value
269
Unit
vehicles
Implication
Small and unsegmented; obtain RTSA extract [rtsa_growth].
Passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEV by age
Value
—
Unit
vehicles
Implication
No authoritative age/warranty distribution located.
EV customs flow
Value
896
Unit
imports
Implication
Strong activity signal, but customs entries do not establish active serviceable stock [zra_imports].
Non-plug-in hybrid availability
Value
—
Unit
units
Implication
HEV/MHEV skills are adjacent but not plug-in TAM [toyota_hybrid] [toyota_mhev].
Grid reliability
Value
—
Unit
site availability
Implication
Audit current feeder, phase, capacity, outages and backup before clinic [grid_supply].

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM

National passenger-EV TAM is not quantified. The observable proxy and launch-gate case separate sourced observations from EVS assumptions; executable SOM is zero.

National TAM unavailable / gate SAM

Assumption-led capacity case; executable SOM zero.

0
91
324
0
National passenger-EV TAM
Observed-registration proxy pool
Greater Lusaka gate SAM
Executable SOM

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Sizing assumptions

Observed all-class EV registrations
Value
269
Unit
vehicles
Basis
RTSA-attributed end-July 2025 observation [rtsa_growth].
Light-duty/passenger share proxy
Value
0.75
Unit
share
Basis
EVS haircut; not a Zambia statistic.
Active/available factor
Value
0.9
Unit
share
Basis
EVS planning haircut.
Greater Lusaka concentration
Value
0.7
Unit
share
Basis
EVS planning assumption pending RTSA geography.
Independent reach
Value
0.6
Unit
share
Basis
EVS assumption pending warranty/fleet access.
Service events
Value
1.2
Unit
jobs/active vehicle/year
Basis
EVS blended diagnostic/chassis assumption.
Average repair order
Value
4,000
Unit
ZMW/job
Basis
Replace with paid Zambia observations.
Greater Lusaka launch threshold
Value
500
Unit
registered passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEV
Basis
EVS density gate, not estimate.
Executable SOM before gates
Value
0
Unit
jobs
Basis
Deliberately zero.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

TAM / SAM / SOM

National passenger-EV TAM
Vehicles
—
Jobs Per Year
—
Revenue ZMW
—
Status
Not quantified: active passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEV denominator unavailable.
Observed-registration proxy pool
Vehicles
76
Jobs Per Year
91
Revenue ZMW
364,000
Status
269 × 75% light-duty × 90% active × 70% Lusaka × 60% reach × 1.20 events; not TAM.
Greater Lusaka gate SAM
Vehicles
270
Jobs Per Year
324
Revenue ZMW
1,296,000
Status
500 separated registrations × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events.
1 more row in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Customers and fleets

Prioritise supported private imports and paid corporate/mining/tourism fleet trials. Public vehicles are not accessible revenue without procurement and warranty permission.

Customer segments

Private early adopters and used imports
Need
Pre-purchase inspection, scan, charging, 12V and chassis evidence
Priority
High only for supported VINs.
Corporate and mining light fleets
Need
Scheduled inspection and uptime evidence
Priority
High through paid fleet trial.
Tourism, hospitality and rental fleets
Need
Route/charging readiness and condition reporting
Priority
Medium; Lusaka–Livingstone corridor.
Government and municipal fleets
Need
Documented procurement and safe diagnostics
Priority
Medium only with contract/warranty permission.
Motorcycles, buses and heavy EVs
Need
Separate equipment, competence and depot support
Priority
Excluded from Phase 1.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Fleet segments

Mining/corporate light fleets
Entry Product
Paid inspection and uptime trial
Evidence Gate
Named VINs, duty cycle, charger audit and service contract.
Tourism/rental fleets
Entry Product
Condition report and charging-readiness package
Evidence Gate
Paid 90-day trial and route evidence.
Public fleets
Entry Product
Non-warranty overflow only
Evidence Gate
Procurement, insurer and OEM permission.
Dealer overflow
Entry Product
Chassis and evidence-grade triage
Evidence Gate
Written scope and lawful tool/data access.
Motorcycles/buses/heavy EVs
Entry Product
Referral only
Evidence Gate
Separate vehicle-class business case.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Get the full Zambia analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Brands and models

No authoritative passenger-EV brand/model registration table was located. Named models are availability signals, not market shares.

Priority brands — no audited market shares located

Passenger BEV availability
Brand
BYD
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
Official Zambia page lists Atto 3, Dolphin and Seal; no sales share [byd].
Non-plug-in HEV
Brand
Toyota
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
CFAO lists RAV4 and Corolla Cross HEVs; excluded from plug-in pool [toyota_hybrid].
Non-plug-in MHEV
Brand
Toyota
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
Hilux and Fortuner 48V MHEVs; excluded from plug-in pool [toyota_mhev].
Local/new ventures
Brand
Spartan and mixed imports
Units
—
Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
—
Source
Availability signal only; no authoritative shares [spartan].

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Priority models

BYD
Model
Atto 3
Powertrain
BEV
Signal
Official Zambia availability/service signal; warranty-controlled [byd].
BYD
Model
Dolphin
Powertrain
BEV
Signal
Official Zambia availability/service signal [byd].
BYD
Model
Seal
Powertrain
BEV
Signal
Official Zambia availability/service signal [byd].
Toyota
Model
RAV4 / Corolla Cross
Powertrain
HEV
Signal
Non-plug-in; adjacent service competitor, excluded from plug-in TAM [toyota_hybrid].
Toyota
Model
Hilux / Fortuner 48V
Powertrain
MHEV
Signal
Non-plug-in; excluded from plug-in TAM [toyota_mhev].
Mixed
Model
Used BEV/PHEV imports
Powertrain
BEV/PHEV by VIN
Signal
No authoritative model ranking; classify before booking.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Competitive landscape

BYD, CFAO, authorised multi-brand dealers and strong all-makes independents make a partner-led entry more rational than a new fixed workshop.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Competitor map

BYD Zambia
Type
OEM-authorised sales/service
Footprint
Lusaka
Threat
High for warranty BEVs
Response
Out-of-warranty, chassis and written overflow scope only [byd].
CFAO Mobility Zambia
Type
OEM-authorised Toyota network
Footprint
National dealer footprint
Threat
High for Toyota HEV/MHEV
Response
Do not count non-plug-in hybrids in EVS plug-in pool [toyota_hybrid].
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Priority geography

Greater Lusaka is the only fixed operating candidate; Copperbelt, Solwezi and Livingstone are later collection/fleet corridors, not second-site cases.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Priority regions

1
Region
Greater Lusaka
Rationale
Capital, official BYD presence, early public-charging launch signal and service ecosystem; no verified EV density.
Mode
Only candidate for scheduled partner clinic [byd] [subilo_charging].
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Consumer incentives

Customs-duty relief supports adoption, but exact current HS treatment, VAT and hybrid excise must be confirmed. No cash purchase grant is modelled.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Consumer incentives

Customs duty on EVs/charging systems
Status
Duty-removal measure reported under 2024 budget implementation
Implication
Demand support, but confirm current HS classification and effective treatment [budget_2024] [budget_2024_impl] [zra_importation].
Hybrid passenger excise
Status
Reported reduction from 30% to 25%
Implication
Applies to hybrids, not automatically BEVs/PHEVs or service economics [budget_2024_impl].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Business incentives

ZDA priority-sector incentives
Status
Eligibility/threshold specific
Action
Foreign threshold stated as US$1m; local and joint-venture thresholds vary. Ordinary clinic assumes zero benefit [zda_incentives].
Five-year machinery customs exemption
Status
Qualified priority-sector/SEZ investors
Action
No eligibility or benefit booked [zda_incentives].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Business, tax and investment incentives

Economics are VAT-exclusive and pre-tax. No grant, reduced rate or customs rebate is banked without written approval.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Tax and customs baseline

VAT / import VAT
Rate
16% general rate
Treatment
Economics exclude VAT; obtain registration and EV/parts/charger ruling [zra_importation].
Corporate income tax
Rate
30% standard rate
Treatment
Pre-tax model; ZDA states standard CIT at 30% [zda_incentives].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Labour, licensing and workshop regulation

Entity, tax, premises/fire, factory/OHS, electrical/ERB/ZESCO/ZABS, environmental, waste, data, consumer and insurance evidence are hard gates.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Licensing path

Entity and tax
Authority
PACRA / ZRA
Evidence
Company, resident directors, tax, VAT, PAYE and current returns [pacra_company] [zra_tax].
Premises / municipal / fire
Authority
Local authority / fire authority
Evidence
Written zoning, trading/business levy, occupancy, fire and signage confirmation via BRRA/local council [brra_rsc].
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Labour and safety obligations

Workplace health and safety
Owner
Employer
Control
Policy, safe systems, information, training, PPE, first aid and emergency measures [ohs_2025].
Factory registration / machinery
Owner
Site operator
Control
Confirm workshop classification, registration, lifting-equipment inspection and records [factories_act].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

High-voltage safety

HV authority is task-specific, documented and auditable; training alone does not authorise unsupported work.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

High-voltage controls

VIN/powertrain whitelist
Required Evidence
Classify BEV, PHEV, HEV, MHEV and conversion before booking.
Task-specific authorisation
Required Evidence
Named technician, assessment, scope, expiry and supervision.
Safe de-energisation
Required Evidence
OEM procedure, lock/tag, proved tester and absence-of-voltage record [iso_6469].
Controlled work zone
Required Evidence
Barriers, insulated PPE/tools, rescue equipment and no lone HV work.
Charging connection
Required Evidence
Licensed electrical work and ERB/ZESCO/ZABS determination; IEC 61851/ISO 17409 benchmarks [iec_61851] [iso_17409].
Release evidence
Required Evidence
Pre/post scan, restoration, torque/QC, limitations and customer sign-off.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Battery and waste

Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, removal, damaged-pack custody and shipment.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Battery and waste routes

Intact in-vehicle traction pack
Rule
Non-invasive diagnostics only
Route
No opening, removal or storage.
Suspect/damaged pack arrival
Rule
Refuse routine indoor custody
Route
Emergency/OEM/insurer response plan.
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Franchise and operating model

Use scheduled clinic days inside a compliant local partner workshop. Do not sell territory or sign a standalone lease.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Operating model

Format
Recommendation
Scheduled clinic days in one compliant Greater Lusaka partner workshop.
Ownership
Recommendation
Zambia company/joint venture with verified registrations and local operating partner.
Territory
Recommendation
No franchise sale or exclusivity before 12 months paid evidence.
Staffing
Recommendation
One assessed HV lead plus one technician; shared support.
Technology
Recommendation
Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful service information.
Commercial
Recommendation
Menu-priced evidence products, deposits and paid fleet trials.
Expansion
Recommendation
Copperbelt collection/fleet days only after Lusaka continuation gate.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Pilot economics

All pricing, volume, margin, opex and capex inputs are EVS assumptions. The partner-clinic format protects downside.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Greater Lusaka partner-clinic EBITDA

ZMW; EVS assumptions.

Cautious-23,375
Base68,000
HighBase case215,000

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Annual partner-clinic economics — ZMW

Cautious
Jobs
45
ARO ZMW
3,500
Revenue ZMW
157,500
Gross Margin Pct
55
Gross Profit ZMW
86,625
Opex ZMW
110,000
EBITDA ZMW
-23,375
Payback Years
—
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

90-day economics — ZMW

Cautious
Jobs 90d
12
Revenue ZMW
42,000
Gross Profit ZMW
23,100
Opex ZMW
27,500
EBITDA ZMW
-4,400
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Risks and mitigations

The dominant risks are a missing passenger denominator, treating customs flow as stock and mistaking plans for accessible paid demand.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Risks and mitigations

Passenger-BEV/PHEV denominator unavailable
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
RTSA/ZRA reconciled extract; national TAM remains null.
896 imports mistaken for active stock
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Reconcile VIN/customs/registration/status; do not add to 269.
269 all-class registrations mistaken for passenger parc
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Separate body, propulsion, owner, location, age and active status.
Charging plans mistaken for operating connectors
Likelihood
High
Impact
Medium
Mitigation
Physical connector/power/uptime/access audit.
Grid interruption and insufficient site capacity
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
High
Mitigation
Feeder/load study, backup, no uncontrolled public charging [grid_supply].
OEM software, warranty and parts access
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Supported VIN/task matrix and referral network.
Battery fire or electric shock
Likelihood
Low
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No pack work; isolation SOP, rescue gear and drills.
Waste route failure
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No traction-battery custody before written ZEMA route.
Tax and incentive interpretation
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
Medium
Mitigation
Written ZRA/ZDA advice; zero incentive benefits in model.
Very small paid demand
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Clinic format, deposits and hard day-90 stop.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

90-day entry plan

Registry/legal proof precedes deposits, tools and paid work.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day entry plan

0–15
Objective
Registry and legal gate
Actions
Obtain RTSA/ZRA matched extract by propulsion/body/age/owner/location/status; map entity, premises, factory, fire, electricity, standards, waste, data and insurance.
Owner
EVS board / Zambia counsel
Deliverable
Feasibility and definition file.
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Explicit go / no-go gates

Failure on denominator, paid demand, compliance, capability, safety or economics stops launch.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Go / no-go gates

Market denominator
Go
Matched extract supports at least 500 registered active-status passenger/light-commercial BEVs/PHEVs in Greater Lusaka, separately identified
No-Go
Classes/status/location cannot be separated or count is below threshold.
5 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Methodology

Sourced facts, attributed figures, conflicts, missing fields and EVS assumptions remain visibly separated.

Methodology

1. Evidence hierarchy
Method
Zambia primary sources first; RTSA/ZRA claims retained as attributed reporting where direct tables were unavailable.
2. Definition control
Method
Separate all-class registrations, customs imports, passenger plug-ins, HEV/MHEV, motorcycles, buses, projects and charger plans.
3. Market denominator
Method
Leave national passenger-EV TAM null until matched RTSA/ZRA extract.
4. Observable proxy
Method
269 × 75% light-duty × 90% active × 70% Lusaka × 60% reach × 1.20 events; assumption-led, not TAM.
5. Gate SAM
Method
500 separated Greater Lusaka plug-ins × 90% active × 60% reach × 1.20 events.
6. SOM
Method
Zero before hard gates.
7. Forecasts
Method
Five-year capacity cases from 269 all-class registrations; not official passenger forecasts.
8. Economics
Method
VAT-exclusive EVS assumptions; capacity remains within gate SAM.
9. Validation
Method
JSON, schema, formulas, citations, links, branding, definition control and template residue.

Source: EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

Complete linked source register

52 linked sources record publisher, publication/access dates, scope and caveats.

Get the full Zambia analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

EVS Board Position

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a scheduled Greater Lusaka partner clinic; NO-GO standalone/franchise; HOLD traction-pack work.

Source register

52 primary and derived sources

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  1. 01EV growth in Zambia surges 334% after duty removal
  2. 02Electric vehicle imports reportedly surge after Zambia scraps customs duties
  3. 03Zambia customs-duty removal spurs EV adoption
  4. 042023 Budget Address
  5. 05Customs and Excise (Amendment) Act, 2023
  6. 06Customs and Excise (Amendment) Bill, 2023
  7. 072024 National Budget
  8. 08Statement on implementation of the 2024 National Budget
  9. 092026 Budget Address
  10. 10Importation of goods
  11. 11Tax Information
  12. 12Practice Note No. 1 of 2026
  13. 13Investment incentives are for both local and foreign investors
  14. 14What is a local company?
  15. 15Fees and forms
  16. 16Regulatory Services Centre
  17. 17Revision of licence requirements
  18. 18Additional licensing requirements
  19. 19ERB takes enforcement action against non-compliant energy operators
  20. 20Board decision on ZESCO tariffs, 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2027
  21. 21ZESCO tariff schedule
  22. 22Extension of emergency period and ZESCO emergency tariffs
  23. 23Ministerial statement on electricity supply
  24. 24Approved 2026 net-metering tariffs
  25. 25Zambia launches first pay-as-you-go EV charging stations
  26. 26Zambia unveils electric vehicle and solar charger
  27. 27ZEMA services
  28. 28Waste Management Licence
  29. 29Environmental licensing
  30. 30Environmental impact assessment
  31. 31Zambia Bureau of Standards
  32. 32Factories Act
  33. 33Occupational Health and Safety Act, 2025
  34. 34Data Protection Commission FAQ
  35. 35Consumer complaints
  36. 36Formal-sector contributions
  37. 37Employer compliance
  38. 38BYD Zambia customer care
  39. 39CFAO Mobility Zambia hybrid range
  40. 40CFAO Mobility Zambia Hilux and Fortuner mild hybrid
  41. 41Southern Cross Motors
  42. 42Vehicle service in Zambia
  43. 43Book a vehicle service
  44. 44AUVIV authorised service centres
  45. 45Spartan Industries
  46. 46ISO 6469 electrified road-vehicle safety
  47. 47ISO 17409 conductive power-transfer safety
  48. 48IEC 61851-1 conductive charging systems
  49. 49UN Manual of Tests and Criteria
  50. 50Basel Convention overview
  51. 51ILO-OSH 2001 guidelines
  52. 52EVS Zambia observable-registration proxy, launch-gate and pilot model

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