Vietnam

Approve a 90-day paid validation programme, conditional industrial-site option and six-family VIN test. Defer franchise sales, pack opening, unsupported coding and public charging operation.

The report uses 2025 and H1 2026 VinFast domestic customer deliveries, then applies a transparent 2% EVS attrition allowance to create a 285,195-vehicle planning pool. This is deliberately not labelled official stock and excludes older domestic EVs, imports, PHEVs, buses and motorcycles.

Manufacturer deliveries establish a recent customer cohort; government registrations establish legal entries; active stock subtracts exports and retirements. No reconciled official active BEV/PHEV car stock series was secured, so the cohort model controls the sizing.

The core cohort entered service after January 2025. This favours tyres, alignment, HVAC, charging diagnosis, fleet uptime, used-EV certificates and incident evidence while constraining post-warranty penetration.

VinFast delivered 175,099 EVs to Vietnam customers in 2025 and 115,916 in H1 2026 [vinfast_2025] [vinfast_h126]. The 97,399 figure for 2024 is global and therefore excluded from the domestic denominator [vinfast_2024].

Cautious, base and high cases apply 18%, 28% and 38% annual growth for 4.5 years from the June 2026 planning pool. They are EVS capacity scenarios—not government forecasts.

VinFast states that V-Green has more than 150,000 ports across 34 provinces/cities and offers qualifying car customers free charging through 30 June 2027 [vinfast_h126]. EVS must not treat this as an independently audited national public-charger census. A charger QCVN notified to the WTO remains a separate regulatory workstream [moit_qcvn].

A young parc shifts early demand toward scheduled maintenance, tyres, chassis, thermal/charging diagnosis, mobile triage, post-impact isolation and used-EV assessment. Deep battery work is a later controlled capability.

EVS may diagnose and repair only within approved premises, business lines and competence. It must not imply Vietnam Register inspection authority or operate public charging without separate electricity, standards and fire analysis [vr] [electricity_law].

285,195 planning-pool vehicles × 48% annual incidence × VND8.0m gives VND1095.2bn TAM. Applying 22% independent eligibility gives VND240.9bn. A 45% pilot-catchment reach proxy gives VND108.4bn SAM. Base SOM is 3,000 orders × VND14m = VND42.0bn.

It excludes pre-2025 and imported EVs, PHEVs, motorcycles, buses, charging revenue, collision body repair, pack replacement and franchise fees. Every non-sourced input is labelled EVS assumption.

Prioritise ride-hailing/delivery fleets, used-EV dealers and lenders, insurers/bodyshops/recovery and corporate/rental fleets. Retail owners should not carry the hub alone.

VF 3, VF 5/Herio Green, Limo Green and VF 6 form the core. BYD and other imports belong in paid validation until reliable model-level domestic stock and tool-access evidence are secured.

VinFast claims 400 workshops [vinfast_h126], alongside national dealer groups and Bosch Car Service. EVS must differentiate with insurer-grade evidence, fleet SLA, multi-brand governance and transparent limitations.

Thủ Đức–Dĩ An–Biên Hòa combines demand, fleet access, industrial premises and the southern logistics corridor. Hanoi is the second validation market; Hải Phòng, Đà Nẵng and Cần Thơ follow only after unit economics are proven.

The first-time BEV registration fee exemption was extended through 28 February 2027 [registration_fee]. Preferential special-consumption tax varies by seating class and period [special_tax]. EVS must confirm transaction-date law and earn returns from paid service demand.

The standard corporate income tax framework and any investment or location incentive require project-specific advice [cit] [invest_vietnam]. Do not place unapproved grants or tax holidays in the base case.

Confirm corporate income tax, VAT, withholding, related-party/royalty treatment, imported tools/parts and franchise fees before contracting. Temporary VAT changes and activity classification can alter invoices.

No dedicated national EV-technician licence was evidenced. EVS should therefore impose documented HV awareness, authorised-person levels, lockout/tagout, insulated tools, rescue, supervision and recurrent assessment under the general occupational-safety framework [labour_safety].

Obtain counsel and local-authority confirmation for entity/investment registrations, business lines, land use, construction, fire, environmental, waste, signage, charging and any controlled equipment before lease commitment.

Use model-specific de-energisation, prove-dead, exclusion zones, two-person rules for defined tasks, arc/chemical PPE, insulated rescue equipment and incident drills. Audit competence independently before energised diagnosis.

Classify normal, suspect, post-impact, flooded and thermally unstable packs; isolate and monitor them; document custody; and use authorised transport/treatment routes. EPR obligations do not replace workshop waste and safety duties [epr] [environment_law].

Confirm refrigerant identity, recovery equipment, technician competence, cylinder storage and environmental obligations. Do not assume ICE workshop procedures cover EV heat-pump systems.

Use Vietnamese-facing quotations and terms, disclose diagnostic limits, obtain approval before extra work, preserve battery-health methodology, offer a complaints route and protect vehicle/customer data [competition] [data_law].

Foreign-to-Vietnam franchising is regulated under the Commercial Law and Decree 35/2006 [moit_franchise]. Confirm registration, disclosure, agreement language, competition, IP, tax and termination before offering franchises.

Battery-health evidence, charging/HVAC diagnosis, tyres/chassis/brakes, fleet preventive maintenance and mobile triage should precede post-impact work. Pack opening, module repair and unsupported coding stay on hold.

Use a Vietnamese operating entity or approved structure, one controlled technical hub, central QA/data governance, local parts and recovery partners, and bilingual fleet/consumer processes. Franchise only after an audited operating year.

The illustrative base produces VND42.0bn revenue, VND22.68bn gross profit and VND1.68bn EBITDA. Local premises, pay, insurance, parts, taxes and central charges must replace assumptions before investment.

The plan deliberately gates expansion on an active-stock extract or audited customer/fleet cohort, plus evidence that EVS can win paid non-warranty work despite VinFast network dominance.

Resolve law and denominator in days 0–30, run paid multi-platform jobs in days 31–60, then secure anchor demand and binding operating quotes in days 61–90.

No capex or franchise rollout unless denominator, demand, paid evidence, technical access, safety/compliance, economics and controlled-hub gates all pass.

Can EVS obtain reliable active-stock and out-of-warranty data? Which fleet, insurer and used-EV counterparties will contract? Which diagnostics and parts are legally and technically accessible by VIN? What is the approved damaged-battery route? What site can pass fire and environmental review?

Primary/company and government sources were preferred, then Reuters, multilaterals and named market participants. Company deliveries and network claims are clearly labelled. The bottom-up service model separates sourced cohort facts from EVS assumptions and tests three forecast/economic scenarios.

No reconciled official active national BEV/PHEV passenger-car stock, model-age table or independent public-charger census was secured. VinFast dominates the observable data. Forecasts and economics are decision-support assumptions, not predictions or quotations.

The source table records publisher, publication/access date, URL and how each source is used. Company claims, government law/policy, independent reporting and EVS assumptions remain distinguishable.

CONDITIONAL GO for a 90-day paid validation and one company-controlled HCMC East hub option. NO-GO for immediate national franchising, pack rebuilding or public charging. Convert only after all seven gates pass.