Philippines

Fund paid validation, current LTO data acquisition, legal/safety design and a revocable partner-bay option. Authorise a permanent hub only after the data, 120-order, 50% margin, technical, safety and B2B gates pass.

PSA/LTO reported 6,697 electric vehicles in 2024, up from 1,359 in 2023; hybrids increased from 6,155 to 17,590. Total registered vehicles were 14.56m [psa_stock].

EVIDA defines EV broadly to include BEV, HEV, PHEV and light EV [evida]. That explains why DOE/LTO’s 2023 broad total of 7,515 almost equals PSA’s 1,359 electric plus 6,155 hybrid categories. The report sizes only the 6,697 electric-only stock and excludes the inseparable hybrid pool.

The 2023 and 2024 PSA figures are registered fleet counts. The 2025 4,613-BEV and 2,139-PHEV figures are CAMPI/TMA sales and exclude BYD/non-members [psa_stock] [mb_sales25]. They are shown separately and never summed into an official active-stock claim.

CAMPI/TMA members sold 25,737 HEVs, 4,613 BEVs and 2,139 PHEVs. A broader industry estimate reported 58,903 electrified vehicles, or 12% of 491,395 total sales, but did not publish a reliable full-market powertrain split [mb_sales25] [gma_sales25].

Cautious, base and high cases apply 25%, 40% and 55% annual growth for six years from the official end-2024 stock. These are planning sensitivities, not official forecasts; DOE's 311,700-EV 2028 target uses a much broader EV definition [doe_eo12].

DOE reported at least 563 registered charging points in April 2024 and 912 publicly accessible stations at 31 March 2025, primarily in NCR [doe_eo12] [doe_charging]. The 7,300 target is policy ambition, not operating stock.

No authoritative active BEV/PHEV model-year or warranty distribution was found. Fast 2024–2025 adoption suggests a young cohort, so launch around evidence, fleet uptime, charging/HVAC and chassis work—not mature pack-rebuild volume.

Urban congestion, ride-hail duty, heat, flooding, tyres, alignment, suspension, brakes, HVAC and charging faults create plausible demand, but no national EV failure-rate dataset was found. Every job-frequency input remains an EVS assumption.

The official 6,697 electric-only stock × 70% annual incidence × PHP15,000 gives PHP70.319m TAM. Applying 70% independent eligibility gives PHP49.223m; 65% Greater Manila reach gives PHP31.995m SAM; a 15% Year-1 share gives PHP4.799m SOM [evs_model].

It excludes 17,590 hybrids because HEVs and PHEVs are inseparable, 2025 sales from stock, motorcycles/light EVs, charging revenue, body repair, pack replacement and franchise fees. Every assumption is visible and can be replaced with paid LTO/VIN evidence.

Ride-hail/delivery fleets, used-EV sellers and financiers, insurers/bodyshops/recovery, private post-warranty owners and EVIDA-covered corporate fleets are the priority sequence.

Tesla led member BEVs through November, Nissan remained material and Omoda–Jaecoo/Chery led member PHEVs [bm_11m]. BYD's non-member volume is strategically important but its BEV/PHEV split was not available. Build capability by VIN/function, never brand assumption.

Tesla operates BGC service [tesla_bgc]. BYD has a six-bay Mandaluyong workshop [byd_mandaluyong]. VinFast targeted more than 100 authorised partner workshops, while Bosch opened an independent EV/HEV concept [vinfast_motech] [vinfast_jiga] [bosch_ev]. EVS must win on cross-brand evidence, fleet SLA and safety governance.

NCR charger concentration and fleet density favour Taguig–Pasig–Makati–Quezon City. Alabang–Cavite–Laguna offers automotive ecosystem and access. Clark, Cebu and Davao follow only after region-level registrations and paid demand are verified.

Expanded EO 12 keeps specified EV and component tariffs at zero through 2028 [doe_eo12] [reuters_tariff]. EVIDA grants eight-year BEV/HEV fee discounts, coding relief and priority registration; eligibility follows recognised classifications [evida].

EVIDA supports evaluation of charging, training, testing, R&D and waste-treatment activities; CREATE MORE offers registered-project incentives [evida] [create_more]. Routine vehicle repair does not automatically qualify, so the model includes no award.

CREATE MORE retains 25% general corporate income tax, 20% for qualifying smaller domestic corporations and 20% EDR tax for registered activities [create_more]. Confirm the 12% VAT, withholding, royalty, transfer-pricing, customs and e-invoicing treatment before investment.

Use automotive electrical qualifications plus platform/OEM HV training, task assessments, LOTO, rescue and supervision. Toyota's TESDA-accredited 2026 hybrid-HV programme shows emerging formal capacity but is not a universal legal licence [toyota_tesda].

Complete entity, tax, barangay/mayor, zoning/occupancy, BFP, DOLE and DENR requirements before trade. Selling public charging is a separate DOE/DU/LGU scope under ORSI [doe_orsi].

Require isolation, lockout, test-before-touch, insulated tools/PPE, controlled access, rescue equipment and a named competent supervisor. No module opening, damaged-pack energisation or unsupported programming during the pilot.

EVIDA assigns DENR battery-waste rules, while RA 6969/DAO 2013-22 require generator registration and controlled manifest/transport/TSD routes where applicable [evida] [emb_hw] [emb_ptt]. Engineer external quarantine before intake.

Confirm refrigerant technician requirements, oil/coolant handling, wastewater, drainage and flood design with LGU/DENR/BFP. Do not import UAE or EU rules as Philippine law.

Use written diagnostic authorisation, estimate, warranty, limitation and complaint routes. Minimise and secure customer, VIN, telemetry, battery and payment data under the Data Privacy Act [npc_dpa].

No Philippine franchise-specific approval is assumed. Counsel must clear entity/ownership, lease/land, trademark, royalty, withholding, technology-transfer, consumer and disclosure structure before any offer or fee. Require one audited operating year.

Start with battery-health/used-EV certificates, paid fault isolation, charging/thermal/low-voltage diagnosis, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, compliant HVAC, fleet SLA, collection and mobile triage. Hold module/cell repair and unsupported coding.

EVS controls brand, SOPs, training, platform whitelist, data and audits. The local operator controls compliant premises, employment, insurance, permits and waste contracts. Use revocable terms, no exclusivity and no sublicensing.

The base case produces PHP1.44m revenue, 50% gross margin and PHP70,000 EBITDA before tax/central allocations; break-even is 109 orders. Low case loses PHP264,800; high earns PHP1.015m. These are EVS assumptions; binding quotes and B2B anchors are mandatory [evs_model].

The biggest errors would be treating broad EV counts or sales as active BEV stock, assuming a mature repair mix, promising unsupported software or accepting wet/damaged packs without quarantine.

Days 0–30 resolve data/legal/site design. Days 31–60 run paid multi-platform work. Days 61–90 reach 120 orders, secure two B2B anchors, audit safety and refresh economics for the board.

No permanent hub without reconciled LTO data, 120 paid jobs, two B2B channels, 90% promised-function success, 50% base margin, positive EBITDA and written HV/fire/waste/EVCS controls. No franchise before one audited year.

Buy current LTO model/fuel/region/age stock; separate HEV from PHEV; validate tickets, cycle times, parts lead times, OEM functions, site flood/fire conditions, insurer/waste quotes and foreign-investment/franchise structure.

PSA/LTO anchors stock; CAMPI/TMA and broader industry reports anchor sales with coverage labels; DOE/Lawphil anchor charging and policy; BOI/SEC/DOLE/DENR/NPC anchor regulation. EVS assumptions drive scenarios, service pools and economics only.

The latest official electric-only stock is 2024. No current separable PHEV stock, active model-year/warranty profile, regional BEV stock, failure rates, price survey or independent workshop-capacity series was obtained. The hard sizing is conservative and must be refreshed before capex.

The source audit records publisher, publication date, access date, definition notes and direct links. Association sales, OEM plans and secondary reports are explicitly labelled; no target is presented as installed infrastructure.

Approve the Greater Manila validation programme. Do not approve permanent premises, pack repair or franchising until every explicit gate passes.