Panama

Approve only a capped 90-day proof: one partner bay, USD95,000 maximum launch/tooling envelope, no long lease, and stop-work authority. Base case is 600 annual jobs, USD165,000 revenue and USD24,300 EBITDA. Franchise rights remain withheld.

The best current denominator is the reported 2,224 BEV-car parc through November 2025 [stock_nov_2025]. It is not an active-VIN file. All-powertrain registrations reached 60,233 in 2025, but that figure is context only [total_sales_2025].

BEV stock, annual BEV additions, PHEVs, hybrids, all-powertrain sales, charging stations, charger units and connectors are separate concepts. The reviewed 2024 annual BEV figures conflict—773 versus 653—so the model starts from the later 2,224 stock endpoint and does not average conflicting flows [sne_sales_2025] [sales_oct_2025] [stock_nov_2025].

Cautious/base/high cases apply 12%/22%/32% compound growth to the EVS active planning pool through 2031. They are capacity sensitivities, not official forecasts.

A December 2025 SNE-derived report cited 205 charging stations and 274 operating chargers across public, commercial, residential and fleet contexts [stock_nov_2025]. This is broader than the March public-only snapshot of 195 stations and 256 chargers [chargers_2025]. Uptime and connector counts were unavailable. Terpel illustrates connector fragmentation across Type 1, GB/T, CCS1/2 and CHAdeMO [terpel_voltex].

No defensible average vehicle age was located. The 836 additions through November 2025 imply a young, warranty-heavy cohort; the launch mix should emphasise non-pack work and evidence. Obtain ATTT first-registration/VIN data before final site capacity.

EVS applies a 97% active factor to 2,224 reported BEVs, then 1.25 annual paid events and USD260 ARO. SAM adds assumed 75% Metro/West concentration and 45% independent reach. Current executable SOM remains zero.

Priority is contracted importer/dealer overflow, logistics fleets, insurers/bodyshops and used-EV evidence—not speculative retail walk-in.

The only located model-specific 2025 evidence places BYD Yuan at 151 units [byd_yuan]. Geely sold 3,138 vehicles overall, but its BEV split is unavailable [total_sales_2025]. Tooling follows verified VIN counts, not brand hype.

OEM channels retain warranty work. Race Lab publicly markets Tesla/Rivian EV service, while Sega and CGT represent capable adjacent independents [racelab] [sega] [cgt]. EVS must win on auditable safety, fleet SLA and multi-brand evidence.

Panama City/San Miguelito/Costa del Este leads; Panama Oeste is the alternative hub/route. Colón and David start as contracted collection/mobile nodes. Province prioritisation is provisional until ATTT data.

Law 162 created the electric-mobility framework and reported fleet/municipal mechanisms [law_162] [public_fleet_targets]. Implementation and tax treatment require current written confirmation. No incentive is included in economics.

The model is pre-ITBMS and pre-income tax. Panama Pacifico or other regimes are upside only after formal eligibility; domestic workshop demand and operating permission come first.

The launch file must cover entity/RUC/Aviso, municipal land use, health, fire, electrical/charging, waste, ATTT and insurance. Panama Emprende records maintenance/repair as an operating activity [panama_emprende] [panama_emprende_example].

No statutory vehicle-HV technician licence was identified in reviewed material; absence of evidence is not permission. EVS requires role competence, two-person LOTO, prove-dead, quarantine and drills. MITRADEL can inspect all establishments [mitradel_inspection].

Opened-pack work is out of scope. Before taking custody, obtain MiAmbiente/MINSA classification, authorised carrier/manager contracts, manifests, fire protocol and insurer acceptance. Generic disposal claims are unacceptable.

Launch: pre-purchase/SOH evidence, chassis, tyres, brakes, suspension, HVAC, 12V, charging diagnosis and fleet mobile triage. Hold opened packs, salvage and heavy public-fleet work.

Use a company-controlled managed partner with one segregated bay, EVS SOPs, audit rights and digital evidence. No franchise award until six months of profitable, safe operation.

Base annual case: 600 jobs × USD275, 62% gross margin, USD78,000 operating cost and USD24,300 EBITDA. Simple payback on USD95,000 capex is 3.91 years. The cautious case loses money; current executable SOM remains zero.

The dominant risks are denominator error, small pool, OEM capture, HV/fire, software/parts access and missing downstream battery routes. Each has a stop gate.

Front-load evidence, demand and compliance. Paid work starts only after dry runs, emergency drill and partner acceptance.

Every gate is open. Missing evidence means hold, not assumption. Failure of the 90-day economic threshold closes the pilot.

Research accessed 10 August 2026. Primary/authoritative material was preferred; dated secondary reporting is labelled. Facts and EVS assumptions are separated, conflicts remain visible, and no unavailable statistic is invented.

The registry records publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use. Legal/tax/workshop obligations require local counsel and authority confirmation before execution.

CONDITIONAL GO to diligence and a capped one-bay Panama Metro/West pilot; NO-GO to standalone capex, opened-pack work or franchising today.