El Salvador

Approve only a capped 90-day proof: one partner bay, USD32,000 maximum tooling/launch envelope, no long lease, and stop-work authority. Base case is 480 annual jobs, USD86,400 revenue and USD8,568 EBITDA. Franchise rights remain withheld.

Use OLADE’s 1,996 light BEV+PHEV vehicles at March 2026 as the planning anchor [olade_monitor2026] [olade_definition]. Do not substitute domestic electric-car, electric-motorcycle, broad-hybrid or total-parc counts [onsv_jul2026] [assembly_parc].

OLADE light plug-ins, domestic electric cars, electric motorcycles, broad hybrids, total valid plates, stations, chargers and connectors are different populations. This report keeps them separate and explicitly flags the July article’s internal discrepancy.

Cautious/base/high cases apply 18%/30%/45% compound growth to the EVS active light plug-in pool through 2031. They are capacity sensitivities, not government or industry forecasts.

AES reported 55 stations in December 2024: 35 internal and 20 public/commercial [aes_2024]. Porsche/Blink names five public locations [blink_porsche]. These are operator subsets; no national audited connector or uptime file was located.

No defensible average plug-in parc age or first-registration distribution was located. The seven-year maximum age for eligible EV/hybrid imports is a legal ceiling, not an average [dga_age]. Collect VIN-level age before parts or staffing commitments.

EVS applies a 96% active factor to OLADE’s 1,996, then 1.20 paid events and USD160 ARO. SAM adds assumed 75% metro concentration and 45% independent reach. Current executable SOM remains zero.

Priority is contracted importer/dealer overflow, corporate/utility and last-mile fleets, insurers/bodyshops, used-EV evidence and rental/tourism—not speculative walk-in retail.

The July domestic snapshot identifies 184 BYD, 26 BMW and 18 Tesla electric cars [onsv_jul2026]. BYD’s official local range spans BEV and PHEV models [byd_models]. Complete model/VIN distribution is unavailable; tool against paid VIN evidence.

BYD’s official workshop retains warranty, software and parts leverage [byd_workshop]. Large bodyshops and diagnostic independents are capable adjacent competitors, but their EV-HV competence must be verified [megasystem] [mechanictown] [eficaz].

San Salvador–Antiguo Cuscatlán–Santa Tecla is the pilot hypothesis. La Libertad/coastal, Santa Ana, San Miguel and airport/tourism routes remain contract-first mobile spokes. No department-level EV table was found.

The 2022 reform reports 0% import tariff and 100% VAT exemption for eligible new vehicles, a 25% VAT discount for eligible used vehicles, and charging-equipment relief [assembly_incentives]. Current DGII/Customs application and transaction eligibility must be confirmed [hacienda_incentives] [dga_import2026].

The model is pre-VAT and pre-income tax. Obtain DGII/Customs advice for services, parts, tools, charging activity and entity structure. No incentive or special workshop subsidy is assumed.

The launch file must cover entity/tax/employer registration, municipal land use and occupancy, MARN category/permit/waste routes, fire/electrical, insurance, labour and custody. CreaEmpresa does not replace sector approvals [cnr_creaempresa] [marn_permits].

No specific nationwide statutory EV-HV technician licence was located in the reviewed sources. That is not permission: EVS requires role competence, observed assessment, two-person LOTO, prove-dead, quarantine, rescue and drills under the broader workplace-risk framework [mtps_sso] [mtps_programme].

MARN requires generators to classify/separate waste and use authorised managers [marn_generators]. Batteries are excluded from the general RAEE collection route [marn_raee]. Obtain written classification, storage, transport and receiver approval before traction-battery custody.

Launch: pre-purchase/SOH evidence, chassis, tyres, brakes, suspension, HVAC, 12V, charging diagnosis, insurer isolation and fleet mobile triage. Hold opened packs, salvage-donor strategies and heavy-vehicle work.

Use a company-controlled managed partner with one segregated bay, EVS SOPs, audit rights and digital evidence. No franchise award until six months of profitable and safe operation.

Base annual case: 480 jobs × USD180, 62% gross margin, USD45,000 operating cost and USD8,568 EBITDA. Simple payback on USD32,000 capex is 3.74 years. The cautious case loses money; current executable SOM is zero.

Dominant risks are definition error, tiny scale/warranty capture, HV/fire, parts/software access, absent battery routes, incentive misunderstanding and overstated metro concentration. Each has a stop gate.

Front-load evidence, demand and compliance. Paid work starts only after supervised dry runs, an emergency drill and partner acceptance.

Every gate is open. Missing evidence means hold, not assumption. Failure of the 90-day economics threshold closes or redesigns the pilot.

Research accessed 10 August 2026. Primary/authoritative material was preferred; dated secondary evidence is labelled. Facts and EVS assumptions are separated, incompatible populations remain visible and no unavailable statistic is invented.

The registry records publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use. Legal, tax, workshop, HV and battery obligations require authority and counsel confirmation before execution.

CONDITIONAL GO to diligence and a capped one-bay San Salvador–La Libertad pilot; NO-GO to greenfield capex, opened-pack work or franchising today.