Nicaragua.

• CONDITIONAL GO for one reversible, managed partner bay in Managua; HOLD a greenfield centre and franchise award.
• OLADE-scope light BEV+PHEV stock reached 2,681 in March 2026, up from 1,950 at end-2024 [ca360_2026] [olade_2024].
• The EVS planning pool is 2,574 active vehicles; current executable SOM is zero until demand, regulatory, software, supply and battery-route gates pass.
• Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, module repair and battery custody.

Approve diligence and a capped NIO1.1m tooling/fit-out envelope only after 25 qualified paid appointments, two fleet LOIs covering 25 jobs/month, current VIN evidence and written compliance approvals. Base annual EBITDA is NIO357,040 with 3.08-year simple payback; the 90-day base case requires 90 paid jobs.

The only comparable core series found is OLADE light BEV+PHEV: 1,950 at December 2024 and 2,681 at March 2026 [olade_2024] [ca360_2026]. This is 37.5% growth over 15 months, not an annual rate. The rounded 1.6m total parc and 1,041,257 motorcycles are context only [police_parc2026].

BEV+PHEV is the service-market denominator. Ordinary HEVs, electric motorcycles, total parc, stations, charging positions and announced chargers are never added to it [olade_pdf2026].

EVS applies cautious/base/high five-year growth of 15%/25%/35% to the 2,574 active planning pool. These are capacity scenarios, not official forecasts; the 2022 policy aspiration is not used as evidence of delivery [assembly_committee].

ENATREL inaugurated 67 positions with 800 kW simultaneous capacity across Managua/MEM-ENATREL, San Juan del Sur and Villanueva in 2022 [enatrel_charging]. Uptime, public access and connector compatibility were not audited. A later 50-point announcement is excluded from installed supply [charging_50_plan].

No authoritative plug-in or total-parc age distribution was located. EVS therefore does not invent average age. Demand is modelled from stock and explicit service-frequency assumptions, while rapid total-parc growth and a motorcycle-majority fleet are qualitative operating context only [police_parc2026].

Sourced stock is separated from every EVS assumption. TAM uses active factor, service frequency and ARO; SAM adds Managua concentration and independent reach. Current executable SOM remains zero until all launch gates pass.

Prioritise uptime-sensitive fleets, ride-hailing/taxis, private owners and used-import buyers. Tourism corridors are mobile/referral opportunities—not a reason for secondary fixed sites.

No authoritative national registration table by plug-in brand/model was located. Chery PHEV launches and Geely showroom presence are supply signals only; tool investment follows verified VIN counts, not publicity [chery_csh] [geely_entry].

OEM networks retain warranty, software and original-parts advantages. General independents compete on chassis and routine repair; their HV capability must be field-audited rather than inferred from branding.

Managua is the only launch market. Chinandega/Villanueva and Rivas/San Juan del Sur are mobile/referral corridors tied to verified charger or workshop evidence [enatrel_charging] [grupo_q_chinandega].

The 2022 reform created tiered import-tax benefits and authorised charging-centre activity [assembly_law1111] [law554_consolidated]. The benefit window lasts five years, so continuation beyond roughly February 2027 is not assumed. Obtain transaction-specific MEM/MHCP/Customs advice before ordering.

Economics are pre-IVA, unlevered and in nominal NIO. USD equivalents use the official 2026 rate of NIO36.6243/USD [bcn_fx2026]. No grant, import exemption or corporate-tax preference is booked.

Entry requires entity/tax/foreign-investment registration, municipal approvals, INSS/MITRAB compliance, fire/electrical sign-off, MARENA classification and insurer-approved custody/road-test terms. The relevant authority—not EVS—determines the final permit path.

Phase 1 uses named authorised persons, VIN-specific isolation, proof of absence of voltage, insulated tools, thermal-event pre-planning and a hard no-pack-opening boundary.

MARENA evidence supports controlled routes for used lead-acid batteries and e-waste, but no public traction-lithium take-back rule or receiver list was located [marena_battery]. EVS must not remove, store or open traction batteries until a written classification, carrier and named authorised receiver exist.

Lead with diagnostics, non-invasive battery-health evidence, charging-fault triage, chassis, 12V, cooling/HVAC, pre-purchase and fleet preventive maintenance. Pack opening and module repair are excluded.

Use one audited partner bay under EVS procedures, job-card evidence and audit rights. No lease, secondary site or franchise award until the pilot passes every gate and sustains at least six months of economics.

A capped NIO1.1m one-bay setup is tested across three scenarios. The base case is 360 jobs/year at NIO7,200 ARO and 62% gross margin. All figures are pre-IVA and exclude financing, corporate tax and owner distributions.

The principal risks are a small/opaque pool, expiring incentives, OEM software access, parts lead times, battery custody, charger uptime, FX and regulatory ambiguity. The operating model converts each into a measurable gate.

The sequence is evidence → demand → partner/site → compliance → supervised soft launch → paid pilot → board gate. No workstream authorises the next automatically.

Failure of any safety, legal, battery or insurer gate is a stop. Commercial continuation additionally requires volume, ARO, gross margin, EBITDA and payback thresholds.

Sources were accessed on 10 August 2026. Primary/authoritative evidence is preferred; secondary sources are labelled. Missing quantities remain unavailable, and EVS assumptions are explicit and sensitivity-tested.

Every material sourced figure resolves to the registry below. Publication and access dates are recorded; the EVS model source covers assumptions and calculations only.

Proceed only with a gated Managua managed-bay pilot. A dedicated site, franchise award, traction-pack work and regional expansion remain on hold until verified demand, platform access, compliance, battery route and economics support them.