Guatemala.

• CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a reversible one-bay managed-partner pilot in Guatemala City—after gates, not before.
• The best four-wheel denominator is about 2,000 BEV cars at end-2025; it is an AMEGUA estimate, not an audited active-VIN file [amegua_2025].
• A broader 4,860 electric registrations through February 2026 includes motorcycles and is excluded from core sizing [mem_sat_allclass].
• The approximately 16,000 hybrid headline does not separate HEV from PHEV and is also excluded [amegua_2025].
• Start with evidence, chassis, HVAC, 12V, charging diagnosis, insurer isolation and fleet uptime. No traction-pack opening.

Approve only a capped 90-day proof: one partner bay, GTQ650,000 maximum launch/tooling envelope, no long lease, and stop-work authority. Base case is 480 annual jobs, GTQ1.056 million revenue and GTQ174,720 EBITDA. Franchise rights remain withheld.

Use the approximately 2,000 four-wheel BEV cars at end-2025 as the planning anchor [amegua_2025]. Do not substitute the 4,860 all-class electric registrations, the 16,000 hybrid estimate or the 6.329 million total vehicle parc [mem_sat_allclass] [parc_2025].

The evidence covers different populations: BEV cars, all electric vehicle classes, motorcycles, broad hybrids, total parc, charging stations, charger units and connectors. This report keeps them separate and never averages or sums incompatible definitions.

Cautious/base/high cases apply 18%/32%/48% compound growth to the EVS active four-wheel BEV pool through 2031. They are service-capacity sensitivities, not government or industry forecasts.

The historic official snapshot recorded 35 points [mem_early]; AMEGUA reported 165 public chargers and 93% home charging by early 2026 [amegua_2025]. Porsche/Los Tres separately reports 26 stations, including three 120 kW units [porsche_charging]. Definitions and uptime are unaudited and not interchangeable.

No defensible average age or first-registration distribution for the BEV parc was located. The model therefore uses no invented age statistic. Analyse the SAT December 2025 register extract before parts, lifts or staffing decisions [sat_dec_2025].

EVS applies a 95% active factor to the 2,000-car estimate, then 1.25 paid events and GTQ2,000 ARO. SAM adds assumed 70% Guatemala City metro concentration and 50% independent reach. Current executable SOM remains zero.

Priority is contracted importer/dealer overflow, corporate and last-mile fleets, insurers/bodyshops, used-EV evidence and commercial vans—not speculative walk-in retail.

BYD officially lists Seagull, Yuan Pro and the T3 electric van and maintains local after-sales [byd_seagull] [byd_yuan] [byd_t3] [byd_after_sales]. No authoritative current registration table by BEV brand/model was found, so tooling follows verified VIN counts rather than popularity claims.

OEM channels retain warranty and software leverage. HVC2 is a direct independent HEV/PHEV/EV specialist, while PaAutos and Central Motores supply strong adjacent multi-site/specialist capability [hvc2] [paautos] [central_motores]. EVS must win on audited safety, insurer/fleet SLA and transparent evidence.

Guatemala City metro is the pilot hypothesis. Mixco–Villa Nueva should be integrated collection routes; Quetzaltenango, Escuintla and Antigua remain contract-first spokes. No second fixed site is justified without department-level active VINs and recurring demand.

Decree 40-2022 established material vehicle, first-sale, first-registration and charging-equipment incentives [mem_law40] [congress_incentives]. Their time profile, category eligibility and business-activity scope require current SAT/MEM advice; no benefit is booked in pilot economics.

The model is pre-VAT and pre-income tax. Obtain SAT/customs advice for services, parts, tools, charging activity and entity structure. No incentive is assumed.

The launch file must cover mercantile/SAT registration, municipal land use and occupancy, MARN instrument and waste classification, fire, electrical supply, CNEE charging/connection, insurance, labour and custody. Business registration does not replace sector approvals [rm_business] [cnee_charge].

No nationwide public statutory EV-HV technician credential was located in the reviewed sources. Absence of a located licence is not permission: EVS requires role competence, observed assessment, two-person LOTO, prove-dead, quarantine, rescue and drills under the broader OHS framework [igss_sso].

MARN identifies hazardous waste, used lead-acid batteries, e-waste and contaminated used oils within controlled management frameworks [marn_hazardous]. Common-waste rules do not establish a route for lithium traction packs [marn_common]. Obtain written classification, storage, transport and authorised-receiver approval before custody.

Launch: pre-purchase/SOH evidence, chassis, tyres, brakes, suspension, HVAC, 12V, charging diagnosis, insurer isolation and fleet mobile triage. Hold opened packs, salvage-donor strategies and heavy-vehicle work.

Use a company-controlled managed partner with one segregated bay, EVS SOPs, audit rights and digital evidence. No franchise award until six months of profitable and safe operation.

Base annual case: 480 jobs × GTQ2,200, 62% gross margin, GTQ480,000 operating cost and GTQ174,720 EBITDA. Simple payback on GTQ650,000 capex is 3.72 years. The cautious case loses money; current executable SOM remains zero.

The dominant risks are denominator error, OEM/HVC2 competition, HV/fire, parts/software access, unavailable lithium-battery downstream routes, incentive misunderstanding, FX/import cost and overstated metro concentration. Each has a stop gate.

Front-load evidence, demand and compliance. Paid work starts only after supervised dry runs, an emergency drill and partner acceptance.

Every gate is open. Missing evidence means hold, not assumption. Failure of the 90-day economics threshold closes or redesigns the pilot.

Research accessed 10 August 2026. Primary and authoritative material was preferred; dated industry/secondary evidence is labelled. Facts and EVS assumptions are separated, incompatible populations remain visible and no unavailable statistic is invented.

The registry records publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use. Legal, tax, workshop, HV and battery obligations require local authority and counsel confirmation before execution.

CONDITIONAL GO to diligence and a capped one-bay Guatemala City pilot; NO-GO to standalone capex, opened-pack work or franchising today.