Honduras

Reject a lease, dedicated centre and franchise. Approve only remote diligence and a maximum USD18,000 conditional tooling envelope for partner service days after eight contracted monthly jobs and all gates. Even the high annual case pays back in 7.68 years.

Use 256 light BEV+PHEV vehicles at end-2024 as the planning anchor [olade_2024]. Keep the more-than-80 domestic electric motorcycles/cars and the 0.01% combined electric/hybrid share separate [asomoveh_eyn] [bch_ip_parc].

OLADE light plug-ins, domestic electric cars/motorcycles, combined electric-and-hybrid share, total parc, stations and connectors are incompatible populations. The 0.01% share is rounded; its implied count is a cross-check only.

Cautious/base/high cases apply 20%/35%/50% compound growth to the EVS active light plug-in pool through 2031. They are capacity sensitivities, not official forecasts.

Solmeca reported 12 Blink stations in March 2025 and targeted 22 by year-end; the target is not counted as delivered [asomoveh_eyn]. Palmerola and Choluteca are named locations [asomoveh_laprensa]. No national audited connector or uptime file was located.

No defensible plug-in average age or first-registration distribution was located. The documented 30+ Maxus fleet is a concentrated service signal [imotors_fleet]. Collect VIN-level age and platform data before tools or parts.

EVS applies a 95% active factor to 256, then 1.20 paid events and USD180 ARO. SAM adds assumed 85% concentration in the two main metros and 50% independent reach. Current executable SOM is zero.

Priority is named corporate/food-distribution fleets, insurer/bodyshop evidence, imported-EV pre-purchase and periodic service days—not speculative retail or a full-time centre.

Maxus is the only documented scale signal: more than 30 fleet BEVs and an official EV30 product/service channel [imotors_fleet] [imotors_ev30]. Tesla/VESA and other imports are reported, but no authoritative national brand/model table exists [asomoveh_eyn].

The tiny pool is already captured by iMotors/Maxus and capable multi-brand/OEM workshops [imotors_site] [quicklane] [imvesa]. EVS should partner or refer rather than duplicate fixed cost.

Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula are service-day hypotheses. Comayagua/Palmerola and Choluteca are mobile/referral corridors. The 44.7% all-parc share of Francisco Morazán and Cortés is not an EV distribution table [bch_ip_parc].

No enacted national EV incentive law was found as of June 2026. A 2024 draft was reported as absent from the 2026 government agenda [laprensa_policy]. Book ordinary taxes and no subsidy.

The model is pre-ISV and pre-income tax. Obtain SAR, Customs, IP and municipal advice for services, parts, tools, entity and registration. No EV-specific relief is assumed [sar_isv].

The file must cover company/RTN/Chamber registration, municipal operating permit, SERNA classification/licence, fire/electrical, insurance, labour and custody [miempresa] [amdc_open] [serna_slas].

No specific nationwide statutory EV-HV technician licence was located. That is not permission: EVS requires role competence, observed assessment, two-person LOTO, prove-dead, quarantine, rescue and drills under the general preventive-measures and inspection framework [labour_reg] [labour_inspection].

SERNA/CESCCO maintains RAEE, chemicals and Basel-related programmes, while hazardous-waste regulations are described as draft work [serna_raee] [serna_cops4]. Obtain written classification, carrier and authorised receiver before any traction-battery custody.

If gates pass: mobile/shared-bay pre-purchase and SOH evidence, chassis, tyres, brakes, HVAC, 12V, vehicle-side charging diagnosis and fleet triage. Hold pack opening, damaged-pack custody and heavy-vehicle expansion.

Use remote referrals and periodic audited partner service days. No EVS lease, dedicated staffing or franchise until at least 1,000 active light plug-ins and six profitable safe months.

Base shared-cost case loses USD6,608 annually at 120 jobs. Only the high case is positive: USD2,344 EBITDA at 180 jobs and 7.68-year payback on USD18,000. These economics support NO-GO to a dedicated centre.

Dominant risks are tiny/uncertain stock, OEM/fleet capture, no enacted incentives, HV/fire, missing battery routes, unknown charger uptime and parts/software access. Avoid fixed cost and enforce stop gates.

This is a diligence and service-day test, not a centre launch. Front-load active VINs, contracted jobs, partner audit and written compliance.

All gates are open. The dedicated-centre and franchise decisions are already NO-GO. Missing evidence stops even the shared-bay test.

Research accessed 10 August 2026. Primary/authoritative material was preferred; secondary/industry evidence is labelled. Facts and EVS assumptions are separated, and the rounded 0.01% share is not treated as precise stock.

The register records publisher, date where available, access date, URL and use. Legal, tax, workshop, HV and waste obligations require authority and counsel confirmation.

NO-GO to dedicated Honduras investment or franchising. Maintain remote diligence and referrals; allow only capped shared-bay service days after all gates pass.