Market IntelligenceUnited States

Minnesota

EVS Minnesota EV Service Centre Market Entry

Decision-grade Minnesota EV service-centre market-entry artifact with sourced facts, explicit assumptions, hard gates and full audit.

Snapshot: 12 August 202649-page full report
Talk to the expansion team
2025 plug-in stock
82,062

Official Minnesota DVS/PUC February 2026 statutory registration count.

2024 plug-in share
717.4%

Exact-component 2024 Minnesota plug-in share of new light-duty sales.

Public ports
2,708

Current public charging ports at access-date snapshot.

Base payback
2.591

Base simple payback sensitivity; not a forecast.

Executive summary

The verdict in full

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Headline market indicators

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Headline market indicators

Official February 2026 registration count
Value
82,062
Unit
electric vehicles—statutory scope
Source
[mn_puc_registrations]
Exact 2024 plug-in sales share
Value
7.174
Unit
percent
Source
[alliance_mn]
Current public charging ports
Value
2,708
Unit
ports—access snapshot
Source
[afdc_mn]
Twin Cities proxy stock share
Value
57.815
Unit
percent of exact 2024 plug-in stock
Source
[alliance_d1][alliance_d3][alliance_d4]
Base annual EBITDA sensitivity
Value
241,200
Unit
USD
Source
[evs_model]

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_headline_kpis

BEV/PHEV stock history

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

BEV/PHEV stock history

31 Dec 2024—Alliance/S&P exact
Bev
46,611
Phev
19,649
Plug In Total
66,260
Scope
Exact light-duty powertrain snapshot
Source
[alliance_mn]
2025—DOE rounded light-duty
Bev
59,800
Phev
24,800
Plug In Total
84,600
Scope
Rounded BEV+PHEV benchmark
Source
[afdc_mn]
Feb 2026—Minnesota DVS/PUC
Bev
Phev
Plug In Total
82,062
Scope
Official statutory electric-vehicle count; broader/different definition and timing
Source
[mn_puc_registrations]

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_registered_stock

Sales and adoption history

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Sales and adoption history

31 Dec 2024 exact stock
Registered Plugin Stock
66,260
Annual Additions
16,431
New Sales Share Pct
7.174
Source
Stock and 2024 sales flow [alliance_mn]
2025 rounded DOE
Registered Plugin Stock
84,600
Annual Additions
New Sales Share Pct
Source
Rounded light-duty benchmark [afdc_mn]
Feb 2026 official DVS/PUC
Registered Plugin Stock
82,062
Annual Additions
New Sales Share Pct
Source
Statutory-scope administrative count [mn_puc_registrations]

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_adoption_history

Powertrain mix

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Powertrain mix

2024 BEV—exact
Vehicles
46,611
Share Of 2025 Plugins Pct
70.346
Source
[alliance_mn]
Share Of 2024 Fleet Pct
0.886
2024 PHEV—exact
Vehicles
19,649
Share Of 2025 Plugins Pct
29.654
Source
[alliance_mn]
Share Of 2024 Fleet Pct
0.374
2025 BEV—rounded
Vehicles
59,800
Share Of 2025 Plugins Pct
70.686
Source
[afdc_mn]
Share Of 2024 Fleet Pct
2025 PHEV—rounded
Vehicles
24,800
Share Of 2025 Plugins Pct
29.314
Source
[afdc_mn]
Share Of 2024 Fleet Pct

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_stock_powertrain

Get the full Minnesota analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Definition reconciliation

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Definition reconciliation

Alliance/S&P 31 Dec 2024
Value
66,260
Definition
Exact BEV+PHEV light-duty registrations.
Control
Exact historical and district denominator.
DOE/Experian 2025
Value
84,600
Definition
Rounded 59,800 BEV + 24,800 PHEV light-duty registrations.
Control
Rounded sensitivity; no false precision.
Minnesota DVS/PUC Feb 2026
Value
82,062
Definition
Official statutory electric-vehicle registration count; includes plug-in hybrids and may include other statutory EV classes.
Control
Current TAM anchor; do not force reconciliation with DOE.
2024 plug-in sales
Value
16,431 / 7.174%
Definition
12,106 BEV + 4,325 PHEV divided by 229,045 exact component total.
Control
Sales flow, not stock.
Charging
Value
2,708 public + 157 private
Definition
Ports, not stations; live access-date inventory.
Control
Dynamic; NEVI sites/funding stay separate.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_definition_reconciliation

2030 EV scenarios

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

2030 EV scenarios

Cautious
Base Year
2,026
Base Stock
82,062
Annual Growth Pct
5
Modelled 2030 Evs
99,747
Status
EVS SENSITIVITY—NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST
Source
[evs_model]
Base
Base Year
2,026
Base Stock
82,062
Annual Growth Pct
10
Modelled 2030 Evs
120,147
Status
EVS SENSITIVITY—NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST
Source
[evs_model]
High
Base Year
2,026
Base Stock
82,062
Annual Growth Pct
15
Modelled 2030 Evs
143,527
Status
EVS SENSITIVITY—NOT OFFICIAL FORECAST
Source
[evs_model]

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_forecast

Charging infrastructure

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Charging infrastructure

1 Jan 2025—Alliance
Level2 Ports
1,699
Dc Fast Ports
675
Total Public Ports
2,374
Stations
Source
[alliance_mn]
Public Ports
2,374
Private Ports
Total Ports
2,374
12 Aug 2026 access—AFDC
Level2 Ports
Dc Fast Ports
Total Public Ports
2,708
Stations
Source
[afdc_mn]
Public Ports
2,708
Private Ports
157
Total Ports
2,865
1 Jul 2026—Minnesota NEVI
Level2 Ports
Dc Fast Ports
Total Public Ports
Stations
6
Source
Operational NEVI locations; not ports [mndot_nevi]
Public Ports
Private Ports
Total Ports

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_charging_history

Charging diligence

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Charging diligence

Definition
Requirement
Separate ports, stations, awards, funding and commissioned locations.
Status
MANDATORY
NEVI
Requirement
Six operational locations, 24 pipeline locations and up to $41.8m Round 3a remain distinct.
Status
CONTROL [mndot_nevi]
Pilot EVSE
Requirement
Load study, licensed contractor, permit, utility approval, networking and logs.
Status
OPEN [contractors_board][dli_codes]
Retail charging
Requirement
Price/power/fee labels, annual inspection and $100-per-port fee if retail charging is offered.
Status
OPEN [retail_charging]
2027 excise tax
Requirement
Model $0.05/kWh from 1 July 2027 for qualifying public charging.
Status
OPEN [charging_excise]

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_charger_reliability

Get the full Minnesota analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Vehicle parc age and service demand

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Vehicle parc age and service demand

Minnesota average vehicle age
Value
12.6
Unit
years
Implication
Supports tyres, brakes, suspension, 12-V and thermal work [alliance_mn].
District 3 plug-in stock
Value
14,686
Unit
vehicles
Implication
Largest west/northwest Twin Cities proxy; 10.8-year average age [alliance_d1].
District 5 plug-in stock
Value
12,350
Unit
vehicles
Implication
Core Minneapolis proxy; 11.6-year average age [alliance_d3].
District 4 plug-in stock
Value
11,272
Unit
vehicles
Implication
St Paul/east-metro proxy; 11.6-year average age [alliance_d4].
District 2 plug-in stock
Value
10,888
Unit
vehicles
Implication
South-metro concentration signal; 11.1-year average age [alliance_d2].
2025 population estimate
Value
5,830,405
Unit
people
Implication
Scale context only [census_mn].
Median household income
Value
89,062
Unit
USD
Implication
Statewide 2020–2024 median; validate catchment affordability [census_mn].

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_parc_age_service

TAM / SAM / SOM controls

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

TAM / SAM / SOM controls

TAM—official Feb 2026 registrations
Value
82,062
Unit
vehicles
Status
SOURCED / DEFINITION-CAVEATED
Basis
Minnesota DVS/PUC statutory count [mn_puc_registrations].
Service-window sensitivity
Value
24,619
Unit
vehicles
Status
EVS ASSUMPTION
Basis
TAM × 30%, rounded [evs_model].
Independent-consideration sensitivity
Value
6,155
Unit
vehicles
Status
EVS ASSUMPTION
Basis
Unrounded service window × 25%, rounded [evs_model].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_tam_sam_som

Customer segments

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Customer segments

Out-of-warranty EV households
Priority
P1
Need
OEM-procedure diagnostics, transparent scope and safe HV isolation.
High-mileage Twin Cities commuters
Priority
P1
Need
Winter tyres, alignment, thermal, charging-fault and uptime service.
Used-EV buyers and sellers
Priority
P1
Need
Pre-purchase scan, battery-health evidence and cold-weather context.
Ride-hail, delivery and airport drivers
Priority
P1
Need
Fast booking, evening turns and downtime reporting.
PHEV owners
Priority
P2
Need
Combined engine, emissions, HV and cooling competence.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_customer_segments

Fleet segments

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Fleet segments

Ride-hail and rental
Priority
P1
Offer
Evening turns, tyres, alignment and uptime SLA.
Evidence
Paid LOIs and vehicle roster required.
Airport, municipal and utility fleets
Priority
P1
Offer
Scheduled inspections and mobile light service.
Evidence
Task, parking and power survey.
Last-mile and delivery
Priority
P1
Offer
Inspection, tyres, brakes, thermal and scan evidence.
Evidence
Three-fleet paid clinic.
Dealer overflow
Priority
P2
Offer
Procedure-controlled mechanical/diagnostic tasks.
Evidence
Written scope, data and parts access.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_fleet_segments

Get the full Minnesota analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Leading brands and models

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Leading brands and models

Priority
Reason
Evidence
Tesla service presence and used-parc hypothesis.
Priority
Reason
Evidence
National model relevance; Minnesota mix not quantified.
Priority
Reason
Evidence
National model relevance; Minnesota mix not quantified.
Priority
Reason
Evidence
OEM dealer benchmark exists.
Priority
Reason
Evidence
CARspec hybrid positioning.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_brands_models

OEM competitors

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

OEM competitors

Tesla Eden Prairie
Location
Eden Prairie
Position
Official OEM service
Implication
Lead-time, price and scope benchmark [tesla_eden_prairie].
Rivian Minneapolis Service + Demo Center
Location
St Louis Park area
Position
Official OEM service
Implication
Premium EV/fleet benchmark [rivian_minneapolis].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_oem_competitors

Independent competitors

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Independent competitors

CARspec
Location
Twin Cities
Offer
Independent hybrid specialization
Control
Verify EV task breadth, price, warranty and lead time [carspec_mn].
Greentec Auto
Location
Minneapolis
Offer
Hybrid/EV battery specialist
Control
Verify pack scope, custody, price and warranty [greentec_minneapolis].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_independent_competitors

Priority cities and regions

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Priority cities and regions

1
Market
Golden Valley–St Louis Park–Plymouth / I-394
Model
Five-bay company-controlled validation hub
Evidence
Districts 3, 5 and 4 contain 38,308 plug-ins, 57.8% of exact state stock [alliance_d1][alliance_d3][alliance_d4].
Control
Drive-time, rent, zoning, load and 250 paid jobs.
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_regions

Consumer incentives

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Consumer incentives

Minnesota EV rebate
Current Value
Closed / fully claimed
Eligibility
More than 6,600 rebates issued February 2024–January 2025
Planning Treatment
ZERO [commerce_incentives][afdc_emissions].
Federal clean-vehicle purchase credits
Current Value
Ended in 2025
Eligibility
Recheck transaction date and any successor law
Planning Treatment
ZERO [irs_clean_vehicle].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_consumer_incentives

Business and investment incentives

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Business and investment incentives

Minnesota Job Creation Fund
Potential
Up to $1m; sometimes $2m under program rules
Status
PRE-APPROVAL REQUIRED
Model Treatment
ZERO [goed_incentives].
Minnesota Investment Fund
Potential
Project-specific
Status
PRE-APPROVAL REQUIRED
Model Treatment
ZERO [goed_business].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_business_incentives

Tax snapshot

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Tax snapshot

Minnesota state sales tax
Rate
6.875% plus local
Basis
State rate; exact-address local rate applies [tax_register][tax_sales].
Corporate franchise/income tax
Rate
Entity-specific current Form M4 rules
Basis
No numeric assumption embedded [tax_mbt].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_tax_snapshot

Licensing, consumer and franchise controls

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Licensing, consumer and franchise controls

No operations before registration [business_hub][sos_portal].
Requirement
Register Minnesota entity and tax accounts.
Status
OPEN
No unconditional lease [mn_fire_code].
Requirement
Exact jurisdiction approvals for automotive use, lifts, storage, quarantine and charging.
Status
OPEN
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_entity_licensing

Labour and skills

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Labour and skills

Minimum wage
Rule
$11.41/hour statewide from 1 January 2026; Minneapolis/St Paul may be higher.
Control
[labor_wage].
State occupational safety
Rule
MNOSHA jurisdiction.
Control
[mn_osha].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_labour

High-voltage safety

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

High-voltage safety

[osha_333][osha_loto][nhtsa_ev_safety]
Requirement
De-energize, verify absence of voltage and prevent re-energization.
Evidence
OEM procedure, LOTO and meter record.
[mn_osha][ase_xev]
Requirement
Task-specific PPE, insulated tools and controlled work zone.
Evidence
Inspection logs and observed assessment.
[nhtsa_ev_safety][epa_battery]
Requirement
Cold-soaked/damaged vehicle triage.
Evidence
Outdoor quarantine, responder, insurer and thermal-event plan.
[mn_osha][evs_model]
Requirement
Two-person/rescue rule where risk assessment requires.
Evidence
Written escalation and drill.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_hv_safety

Battery and waste

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Battery and waste

Undamaged used pack/module
Control
Recipient and characterization [epa_battery][mpca_hwid].
Status
EXCLUDED FROM ROUTINE CUSTODY AT LAUNCH
Damaged/defective/recalled lithium battery
Control
[phmsa].
Status
NO TRANSPORT WITHOUT APPROVED SPECIALIST
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_battery_waste

Data and consumer controls

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Data and consumer controls

Written estimate
Rule
Provide upon customer request before repair; disclosed estimate charge permitted.
Implication
DMS estimate workflow.
Price ceiling
Rule
Final price may not exceed 110% of written estimate without revised estimate and authorization.
Implication
DMS blocks uncontrolled upsell.
Authorization
Rule
No unauthorized or unnecessary repair.
Implication
Audit monthly.
Invoice and records
Rule
Itemized invoice requirements apply over $50; retain transaction records and display mandatory sign.
Implication
Release gate.
Battery-health statements
Rule
No unsupported degradation or life prediction.
Implication
Evidence product, not promise.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_data_consumer

Get the full Minnesota analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Operating model

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Operating model

Pilot
Choice
Company-controlled five-bay Golden Valley–St Louis Park / I-394 hub
Rationale
Central Twin Cities concentration and learning/safety control.
Staffing
Choice
1 lead HV diagnostic tech, 2 multiskill techs, 1 apprentice, 1 service lead
Rationale
Assumption; recruit and observed-test before lease.
Bays
Choice
3 general, 1 isolation/diagnostic, 1 tyre/alignment
Rationale
Launch scope without cell work.
Mobile
Choice
Diagnostic triage and light preventive only
Rationale
Fleet access with safe boundary.
Facility
Choice
Heated staging, outdoor quarantine, drainage and responder access
Rationale
Cold climate, snow/salt and thermal-event resilience.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_operating_model

Franchise model

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Franchise model

Pilot
Model
Release
Board-approved site, scope, staffing and controls.
Unit proof
Model
Release
Two winter cohorts, positive base economics, audit pass and repeat demand.
Franchise design
Model
Release
Manuals, training, QA, support economics, territory and Minnesota/Federal counsel.
Offer/sale
Model
Release
Current FDD, lawful registration/exemption analysis and disclosure timing.
Scale
Model
Release
Continuous HV, consumer, waste, data and unit-economics audits.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_franchise_model

Annual economics

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Annual economics

Cautious
Annual Jobs
1,500
Aro Usd
450
Gross Margin Pct
55
Revenue Usd
675,000
Gross Profit Usd
371,250
Fixed Opex Usd
600,000
Ebitda Usd
-228,750
Capex Usd
625,000
Simple Payback Years
Status
EVS sensitivity [evs_model]
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_annual_scenarios

90-day pilot economics

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day pilot economics

Cautious
Jobs
180
Aro Usd
425
Gross Margin Pct
52
Opex Usd
115,000
Revenue Usd
76,500
Gross Profit Usd
39,780
Ebitda Usd
-75,220
Status
EVS 90-day sensitivity [evs_model]
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_pilot_scenarios

Risks

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Risks

Independent EV task demand below funnel sensitivity
Severity
Evidence
Consequence
Winter seasonality and cold-weather comebacks
Severity
Evidence
Consequence
HV injury or thermal event
Severity
Evidence
Consequence
Parts/data/tool blockage by VIN
Severity
Evidence
Consequence
Site power, permitting or 2026 NEC transition delay
Severity
Evidence
Consequence
Battery/waste chain failure
Severity
Evidence
Consequence
Franchise released before proof
Severity
Evidence
Consequence

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_risks

Mitigations

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Mitigations

Demand
Mitigation
250 paid-job clinic, three fleet LOIs and VIN/task capture before lease.
Owner
Trigger
Paid-job or repeat threshold missed.
Winter
Mitigation
Run winter cohort covering tyres, 12-V, heat pump, charging and cold-soak triage.
Owner
Trigger
Seasonal margin/comeback miss.
Safety
Mitigation
Observed authorization, LOTO, PPE, quarantine and responder drills.
Owner
Trigger
Any critical audit failure.
Parts/data
Mitigation
Green/amber/red VIN-task matrix and NASTF/OEM subscriptions.
Owner
Trigger
No lawful procedure/part/tool path.
Site/power
Mitigation
Utility, DLI, local permitting and NEC-transition memo before lease.
Owner
Trigger
Schedule/load/cost miss.
Waste
Mitigation
HWID, county/MPCA classification, recipient and PHMSA carrier evidence.
Owner
Trigger
Any missing chain document.

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_mitigations

90-day entry plan

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day entry plan

0–15
Action
Name market, safety, site, legal/tax and EHS owners; freeze task taxonomy.
Output
7 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_plan_90_day

Explicit go / no-go gates

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Explicit go / no-go gates

G1 Paid demand
Threshold
≥250 paid jobs; ≥20% repeat/return booking; task mix supports launch scope.
Decision
8 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_gates

Methodology

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Methodology

Queue control
Method
Selected only locked rank-19 Minnesota; checked no completed duplicate.
Control
Source hierarchy
Method
Minnesota agencies and federal regulators first; Alliance/S&P for exact 2024 market snapshots; commercial pages only for presence.
Control
Definitions
Method
Kept DVS statutory count, DOE rounded light-duty count, exact S&P stock/sales, ports, sites, awards and funding separate.
Control
Sizing
Method
82,062 × 30% × 25% × 35%; assumptions explicit; verified SAM null and SOM zero.
Control
Forecast
Method
Four-year 5%/10%/15% sensitivities from February 2026 anchor.
Control
Economics
Method
Jobs × ARO; gross profit less fixed opex; capex divided by positive EBITDA.
Control
Release
Method
Evidence thresholds control site, scope, fleet route and franchise.
Control

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_methodology

Data gaps

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Data gaps

Light-duty BEV/PHEV exact February 2026 split
Effect
Closure
VIN/age/warranty/task catchment
Effect
Closure
Competitor price, scope, capacity and lead time
Effect
Closure
Exact site rent, power, tariff and permitting
Effect
Closure
Battery/waste classifications and recipients
Effect
Closure
Winter bay mix and comeback rate
Effect
Closure

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_data_gaps

Complete source register

Reviewed Minnesota evidence and EVS controls. Sourced facts, assumptions, uncertainty and release conditions remain separated.

Complete source register

afdc_mn
Publisher
U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://afdc.energy.gov/states/MN
mn_puc_registrations
Publisher
Minnesota Public Utilities Commission
Publication Date
2026-04-10
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://mn.gov/puc/activities/economic-analysis/electric-vehicles/
alliance_mn
Publisher
Alliance for Automotive Innovation
Publication Date
2025-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/mn
alliance_d1
Publisher
Alliance for Automotive Innovation
Publication Date
2025-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/mn/3
alliance_d2
Publisher
Alliance for Automotive Innovation
Publication Date
2025-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/mn/2
alliance_d3
Publisher
Alliance for Automotive Innovation
Publication Date
2025-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/mn/5
alliance_d4
Publisher
Alliance for Automotive Innovation
Publication Date
2025-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/mn/4
alliance_q4_2025
Publisher
Alliance for Automotive Innovation
Publication Date
2025-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.autosinnovate.org/resources/insights/mn/1
census_mn
Publisher
U.S. Census Bureau
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/MN/HSG010224
mndot_nevi
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Transportation
Publication Date
2026-07-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.dot.state.mn.us/ev-infrastructure/nevi.html
puc_utility_programs
Publisher
Minnesota Public Utilities Commission
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://mn.gov/puc/activities/economic-analysis/electric-vehicles/
commerce_incentives
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Commerce
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://mn.gov/commerce/energy/consumer/energy-programs/ev-incentives.jsp
mn_repair_estimate
Publisher
Minnesota Revisor of Statutes
Publication Date
2025
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/325f.58
mn_repair_rights
Publisher
Minnesota Revisor of Statutes
Publication Date
2025
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/325F.62
business_hub
Publisher
Minnesota Secretary of State
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.sos.mn.gov/business-liens/start-a-business/
sos_portal
Publisher
Minnesota Secretary of State
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://mblsportal.sos.mn.gov/
tax_register
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Revenue
Publication Date
2026-04-02
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/guide/taxes-and-rates
tax_sales
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Revenue
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/sales-tax-rate-calculator
tax_mbt
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Revenue
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/corporation-income-tax
tax_commerce
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Revenue
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.revenue.state.mn.us/withholding-tax
goed_business
Publisher
Minnesota DEED
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://mn.gov/deed/business/financing-business/deed-programs/mif/
goed_incentives
Publisher
Minnesota DEED
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://mn.gov/deed/business/financing-business/deed-programs/mn-jcf/
labor_wage
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry
Publication Date
2026-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.dli.mn.gov/minwage
mn_osha
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.dli.mn.gov/business/workplace-safety-and-health/mnosha-compliance
contractors_board
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://dli.mn.gov/business/electrical-contractors/electrical-contractor-licensing-basics
dli_codes
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Labor and Industry
Publication Date
2026-08-17
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://dli.mn.gov/business/electrical-contractors/electrical-codes-and-standards
mpca_auto_waste
Publisher
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.pca.state.mn.us/business-with-us/automotive-repair-body-shops-and-salvage
mpca_hwid
Publisher
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://rsp.pca.state.mn.us/dep/DEP_RSP/hlp/page/hw_notification_help.html
mn_fire_code
Publisher
Minnesota Department of Public Safety
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://dps.mn.gov/divisions/sfm/fire-code
afdc_emissions
Publisher
U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date
2025-11-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/13285
osha_333
Publisher
Occupational Safety and Health Administration
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.osha.gov/laws-regs/regulations/standardnumber/1910/1910.333
osha_loto
Publisher
Occupational Safety and Health Administration
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.osha.gov/laws-regs/regulations/standardnumber/1910/1910.147
epa_battery
Publisher
U.S. EPA
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.epa.gov/hw/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-frequently-asked-questions
epa_609
Publisher
U.S. EPA
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.epa.gov/mvac/section-609-technician-training-and-certification-programs
phmsa
Publisher
PHMSA
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.phmsa.dot.gov/lithiumbatteries
nhtsa_ev_safety
Publisher
NHTSA
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle-safety/electric-and-hybrid-vehicles
ase_xev
Publisher
ASE
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://www.ase.com/xev
ftc_franchise
Publisher
Federal Trade Commission
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://www.ftc.gov/legal-library/browse/rules/franchise-rule
nastf
Publisher
NASTF
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Authoritative industry
Href
https://wp.nastf.org/
irs_clean_vehicle
Publisher
U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/ev-tax-credits
tesla_eden_prairie
Publisher
Tesla
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Commercial primary source
Href
https://www.tesla.com/findus/location/service/edenprairie
rivian_minneapolis
Publisher
Rivian
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Commercial primary source
Href
https://rivian.com/spaces/minneapolis-service-demo-center
carspec_mn
Publisher
CARspec
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Commercial primary source
Href
https://carspecmn.com/
greentec_minneapolis
Publisher
Greentec Auto
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Commercial primary source
Href
https://greentecauto.com/locations/minneapolis/
buerkle_hyundai
Publisher
Buerkle Hyundai
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Commercial primary source
Href
https://www.buerklehyundai.com/service/
ev_registration_fee
Publisher
U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date
2026-01-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/11840
charging_excise
Publisher
U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date
2027-07-01
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/14364
retail_charging
Publisher
U.S. Department of Energy
Publication Date
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Primary / authoritative
Href
https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/14365
evs_logo
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
EVS asset
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
evs_model
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
EVS assumption register
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_stock_card
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_share_card
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_ports_card
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_payback_card
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_stock_chart
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_adoption_chart
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_forecast_chart
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_economics_chart
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_decision_summary
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_headline_kpis
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_registered_stock
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_adoption_history
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_stock_powertrain
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_definition_reconciliation
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_forecast
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_charging_history
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_charger_reliability
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_parc_age_service
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_tam_sam_som
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_customer_segments
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_fleet_segments
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_brands_models
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_oem_competitors
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_independent_competitors
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_regions
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_consumer_incentives
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_business_incentives
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_tax_snapshot
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_entity_licensing
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_labour
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_hv_safety
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_battery_waste
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_data_consumer
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_service_portfolio
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_operating_model
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_franchise_model
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_annual_scenarios
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_pilot_scenarios
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_risks
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_mitigations
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_plan_90_day
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_gates
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_methodology
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_data_gaps
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/
widget_table_source_audit
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-12
Accessed At
2026-08-12
Classification
Artifact provenance
Href
https://evsworldwide.com/

Source: EVS artifact provenance—widget_table_source_audit

Source register

95 primary and derived sources

Show
  1. Return bounded reviewed rows for stock_card.

  2. Return bounded reviewed rows for share_card.

  3. Return bounded reviewed rows for ports_card.

  4. Return bounded reviewed rows for payback_card.

  5. Return bounded reviewed rows for stock_chart.

  6. Return bounded reviewed rows for adoption_chart.

  7. Return bounded reviewed rows for forecast_chart.

  8. Return bounded reviewed rows for economics_chart.

  9. Return bounded reviewed rows for decision_summary_table.

  10. Return bounded reviewed rows for headline_kpis_table.

  11. Return bounded reviewed rows for registered_stock_table.

  12. Return bounded reviewed rows for adoption_history_table.

  13. Return bounded reviewed rows for stock_powertrain_table.

  14. Return bounded reviewed rows for definition_reconciliation_table.

  15. Return bounded reviewed rows for forecast_table.

  16. Return bounded reviewed rows for charging_history_table.

  17. Return bounded reviewed rows for charger_reliability_table.

  18. Return bounded reviewed rows for parc_age_service_table.

  19. Return bounded reviewed rows for tam_sam_som_table.

  20. Return bounded reviewed rows for customer_segments_table.

  21. Return bounded reviewed rows for fleet_segments_table.

  22. Return bounded reviewed rows for brands_models_table.

  23. Return bounded reviewed rows for oem_competitors_table.

  24. Return bounded reviewed rows for independent_competitors_table.

  25. Return bounded reviewed rows for regions_table.

  26. Return bounded reviewed rows for consumer_incentives_table.

  27. Return bounded reviewed rows for business_incentives_table.

  28. Return bounded reviewed rows for tax_snapshot_table.

  29. Return bounded reviewed rows for entity_licensing_table.

  30. Return bounded reviewed rows for labour_table.

  31. Return bounded reviewed rows for hv_safety_table.

  32. Return bounded reviewed rows for battery_waste_table.

  33. Return bounded reviewed rows for data_consumer_table.

  34. Return bounded reviewed rows for service_portfolio_table.

  35. Return bounded reviewed rows for operating_model_table.

  36. Return bounded reviewed rows for franchise_model_table.

  37. Return bounded reviewed rows for annual_scenarios_table.

  38. Return bounded reviewed rows for pilot_scenarios_table.

  39. Return bounded reviewed rows for risks_table.

  40. Return bounded reviewed rows for mitigations_table.

  41. Return bounded reviewed rows for plan_90_day_table.

  42. Return bounded reviewed rows for gates_table.

  43. Return bounded reviewed rows for methodology_table.

  44. Return bounded reviewed rows for data_gaps_table.

  45. Return bounded reviewed rows for source_audit_table.

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