Türkiye.

• CONDITIONAL GO: validate a company-controlled Istanbul Anatolian side–Tuzla–Gebze technical hub.
• TurkStat recorded 436,474 electric passenger cars at 31 May 2026 [tuik_may_exact] [aa_may_exact].
• June charging activity was concentrated in Istanbul, supporting the first-city choice [epdk_charge26].
• Do not launch a national franchise or battery-module repair until paid demand, access, safety and economics gates pass.

Approve a 90-day paid validation programme, a conditional Tuzla–Gebze premises option and platform-access tests. Defer national franchising, cell work, unsupported programming and public charging operation.

The exact May 2026 TurkStat electric passenger-car count was 436,474. TurkStat reported electric cars at a rounded 2.5% of the June passenger parc of 17.87 million [tuik_jun26]. The exact May count—not the rounded June share—anchors sizing.

TurkStat electric passenger cars, ODMD sales flow, EPDK operational EV counts and broad hybrids are different series. Türkiye does not publish a current exact PHEV stock in the cited hybrid category, so hybrids are excluded from the core service pool.

Electric passenger cars rose from 6,267 at end-2021 to 14,552 in 2022, 80,043 in 2023, 183,776 in 2024, 370,591 in 2025 and 436,474 by May 2026 [aa_history24] [tuik_may_exact]. This scale supports diagnosis and fleet work before deep age-related pack demand.

ODMD recorded 80,709 pure-electric passenger cars in H1 2026; including extended-range cars, 81,331 and an 18.5% share. Pure-electric volume fell 5.3% year on year while broad hybrids grew [aa_h126].

From the May 2026 base, EVS scenarios reach about 727k cautious, 991k base and 1.33m high by end-2030. The 12%, 20% and 28% CAGRs are EVS assumptions, not official forecasts [epdk_projection].

EPDK reported 45,097 sockets in June 2026: 25,434 AC and 19,663 DC, with 3,545 MW installed power. Istanbul used 20,902 MWh, ahead of Ankara and Izmir [epdk_charge26]. Charging demand is a location signal, not workshop utilisation.

Most of the electric stock arrived recently. No exact electric-car age or warranty-band distribution was identified, so the all-vehicle parc is not used as an EV age proxy. Obtain model-year, province and warranty extracts before heavy battery capex.

TÜVTÜRK operates periodic inspection [inspection]. EVS should accept inspection-remediation referrals but must not market the workshop as a statutory inspection station. No EV-only failure rate is invented.

Core TAM is 436,474 electric passenger cars × 50% incidence × TRY35,000 = TRY7.64bn. Independent-eligible value is TRY3.44bn. A 45% Istanbul–Marmara reach proxy gives TRY1.55bn SAM. Base SOM is 3,000 repair orders × TRY55,000 = TRY165m. Every rate and price is an EVS assumption.

It excludes broad hybrids/PHEVs, commercial EVs, charger installation, statutory inspection, body repair, full-pack replacement and franchise fees. Nominal TRY inputs are August 2026 planning units and require monthly refresh.

Prioritise used-EV dealers/importers, leasing/rental/delivery fleets, insurers/bodyshops/recovery and high-utilisation operators. Private post-warranty demand should grow, but it is not yet the only viable launch segment.

Togg’s two-model range led recent electric sales [aa_models26]; Tesla and BYD have also built meaningful recent volumes [reuters_2025]. Each advertised function stays behind a paid VIN/tool/parts test.

Togg, Tesla, BYD and legacy dealers control warranty and software channels [togg_service] [tesla_service] [byd]. Bosch, Euromaster, Auto King and local specialists compete for mechanical, fleet and repair work [bosch] [euromaster] [autoking]. EVS must sell evidence and uptime, not generic servicing.

Recommend an Istanbul Anatolian-side hub with Tuzla–Gebze search radius, European-side collection, and Ankara as the second-market candidate. Scores are EVS assumptions pending district stock, rent, labour, insurer and customer-origin data.

Vehicle tax treatment can change through ÖTV tax bases/rates and MTV schedules [gib_mtv]. No universal current cash grant is assumed. Obtain a live GİB adviser memo before quoting any EV tax advantage.

Türkiye offers project-specific investment tools and location regimes [invest_incentives] [invest_zones]. The 2026 qualified service-centre reform may matter only if eligibility is met [invest_reform]. No award or routine-workshop qualification is in the model.

The general corporate income-tax rate is 25% [gib_cit]. Confirm VAT, customs, withholding, transfer pricing, electronic ledgers and permanent establishment before contracting [invest_tax] [trade_ledger]. Use short quote validity and monthly model refresh.

MYK published Level 4 and 5 BEV and hybrid maintenance qualifications in 2024 [myk_qual] and revised occupational standards [myk_standard]. Treat certification as a competency baseline, then add EVS task/platform authorisation and Law 6331 controls [ohs_law].

Map municipal workplace licence, zoning/building, fire, environment, waste, F-gas, fixed electrical/charging, labour, consumer, data and insurance duties before lease [workplace_reg] [fire_reg]. No single blanket EV workshop licence is assumed.

Require qualified personnel, task authorisation, isolation, lockout, test-before-touch, insulated tooling, controlled access, rescue equipment and independent audit. Vehicle traction work and fixed charging/electrical work are separate competence/regulatory scopes.

Apply waste classification, secure monitored storage, MOTAT/transport analysis and authorised downstream treatment [waste_reg] [motat] [adr]. No pack opening or damaged-pack acceptance before written fire, insurer, environmental and transport sign-off.

Confirm current Turkish F-gas certification, recovery equipment, records and waste duties with the climate authority [fgas]. Do not assume EU rules apply directly; Türkiye’s current domestic rules control.

Use clear estimates, diagnostic authorisations, exclusions, warranties and complaint handling [consumer]. Do not imply OEM authorisation [serbis]. VIN, telemetry, battery and fleet data require KVKK minimisation, access control and retention governance [kvkk].

Türkiye has no single dedicated franchise statute assumed here. Use local obligations, IP and competition counsel [competition] [turkpatent], with explicit territory, pricing freedom, royalties, FX, disclosure, QA and termination controls. No franchise sale before one audited operating year.

Launch battery-health certificates, paid fault isolation, charging/thermal diagnosis, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, compliant HVAC, fleet SLAs, collection and mobile triage. Hold battery opening, cell work, unsupported programming and safety-critical ADAS release.

Use one bilingual Turkish/English hub, a VIN/function capability database, evidence templates, central parts approval, daily safety control and European-side collection. Expand only through audited spokes or partners after reproducible hub evidence.

The illustrative base case produces TRY165m revenue, 54% gross margin and TRY7.1m EBITDA before tax, financing and central allocations. Low case loses TRY82.6m; high case earns TRY74.8m. These nominal figures require monthly repricing and binding quotes.

Critical risks are TRY/inflation exposure, OEM access and battery thermal events. High risks include the young parc, tax volatility, competition and city-level demand uncertainty. Staged capex and explicit gates reduce, not eliminate, these risks.

Days 0–30: legal/HSE, customer interviews, district data and tool matrix. Days 31–60: 120 paid jobs, 40 VIN/function tests and binding site/compliance quotes. Days 61–90: anchor LOIs, HSE audit, conditional lease, lead hire and refreshed board model.

No hub without TRY75m credible annualised contracted demand, 120 paid jobs, 90% promised-function success, written approvals, positive repriced base economics and a qualified team. No franchise before the separate one-year operating gate.

Obtain province/district electric stock, model-year/warranty bands, real tickets/cycle times, OEM function pass rates, MYK certificate availability, binding lease/labour/insurance/waste quotes and customer willingness to pay for evidence.

TurkStat and ODMD-linked releases anchor stock and flow; EPDK anchors charging. Government and legal sources anchor tax/regulation. Commercial sources map competition only. Sourced facts and EVS assumptions remain separate in datasets and calculations.

Exact PHEV stock, EV age/warranty bands, city stock, EV-only inspection failures, workshop price distributions, OEM access and insurer terms remain unresolved. Forecasts, incidence, spend, eligibility, reach, scores and economics are decision-support assumptions.

The source table records publisher, publication date where available, access date, definition notes and direct URL. Material current pages were freshly checked; URL syntax is not a universal website-availability claim.

Approve Türkiye validation. Authorise a Tuzla–Gebze hub only after every operating gate passes; build European-side collection and Ankara evidence next; defer national franchising and battery-module repair.