Jordan

Enter through a licensed, controlled partner bay for 90 days; do not franchise. Sell battery-health/PDI evidence, insurer collision triage, charging/thermal/12V diagnostics and fleet uptime. Treat Zarqa Free Zone as the inspection feed and Amman as the repair hub. Convert to a permanent company-controlled centre only after 650 paid orders, 52% gross margin, positive EBITDA, six contracts, 120 monthly minimum jobs, 80% VIN coverage and full compliance [evs_model].

Jordan reported 85,500 licensed and registered EVs in 2023 [stock_2023]. Later sources show 51,000 local-market EV clearances in 2024 [clearance_2024] and 48,413 EVs introduced in 2025 [imports_2025], but these are flows—not active stock. H1 2025 alone included 14,507 used-EV conformity assessments [used_ev_h1]. Around 250 public charging stations operated by June 2026 [charging_2026].

The 85,500 figure is the latest located licensed-stock point and is used as a conservative floor. Customs entry, free-zone local clearance and JSMO assessment are distinct processes and are never summed into active stock. The 389,000 electric-plus-hybrid fleet figure includes conventional hybrids [electrified_2024]. “EV” sources generally do not separate BEV and PHEV, so no PHEV share is invented.

The located licensed series rises from 6,400 EVs in 2021 to 16,975 in 2022 and 85,500 in 2023 [stock_2023]. This discontinuity needs a definition audit, but later 2024–2025 import/clearance volumes independently confirm a high-growth market. The chart deliberately displays stock and flow evidence together only as labelled points, not a continuous official stock series.

Free-zone data recorded 52,849 EV entries in 2024 versus 41,048 in 2023 [imports_2024]. Comparable local-market clearance fell from 22,604 in H1 2024 to 18,816 in H1 2025 after tax changes [h1_2025]. Full-year 2025 customs evidence reports 48,413 EVs introduced, 87% Chinese-made [imports_2025]. None provides a defensible national PHEV split.

Applying 12%, 20% and 28% annual growth for seven years to the 85,500 end-2023 hard floor yields 189,013, 306,362 and 481,322 EVs at end-2030 [evs_model]. These are planning sensitivities, not forecasts. Because later customs flows indicate the true current fleet may already be materially above the floor, capacity design should be modular and rebased immediately after the licensing extract.

Operating stations rose from 107 in late 2024—85 public and 22 private [charging_2024]—to about 250 public stations by June 2026, with more than 1,000 construction permits still in progress [charging_2026]. These are station counts, not connectors. Public energy before commission is 103/113/133 fils per kWh off-peak/partial/peak [charging_tariff]. Charger-side work requires EMRC/electrical partners; EVS should initially diagnose only the vehicle side.

No official EV age curve was located. However, 85,500 EVs were already licensed in 2023 and 14,507 used EVs underwent JSMO assessment in H1 2025 [stock_2023] [used_ev_h1]. That combination supports an aging, used-import-heavy service pool. The late-2025 three-year import-age ceiling improves future inflow quality but does not remove legacy battery, collision, software and parts risk [import_rules].

Jordan’s formal market structure creates direct EVS demand: JSMO used-EV inspection, mandatory 3-year/50,000 km warranties for qualifying new non-agent EV sales, and only 13 registered warranty maintenance centres reported in 2025 [used_ev_service] [warranty_rules]. EVS can compete on evidence and accredited execution, but must not represent itself as a warranty provider until approved/contracted.

Using the conservative 85,500-vehicle floor, EVS assumes 55% annual paid-service incidence and JOD220 average addressable spend: JOD10,345,500 TAM. Applying 60% independent eligibility and 65% single-hub reach yields JOD6,207,300 eligible value and JOD4,034,745 SAM. The base 90-day SOM is JOD97,500 from 650 orders—2.42% of annual SAM [evs_model].

Included: the 85,500 licensed EV floor and EVS-addressable maintenance/diagnostic demand. Excluded: conventional HEV/MHEV, unlicensed/inactive/exported vehicles, charger-energy revenue, OEM warranty work inaccessible to EVS, vehicle sales, unsupported salvage vehicles and speculative 2024–2025 stock additions. Customs flows support direction but do not inflate TAM.

Used-EV traders/buyers rank first, followed by insurers/bodyshops/recovery, ride-hailing and taxi operators, independent retail owners and OEM overflow. More than 60,000 people were reported working through ride-hailing apps in 2025, though most were not confirmed EV drivers [ride_hailing]. Contracts, not that gross driver number, determine fleet revenue.

Chinese-made vehicles were 87% of 2025 EV imports [imports_2025]. Changan, BYD and Dongfeng are specifically cited as leading Chinese brands [china_2025]. In the narrower new-car dataset, Changan Eado EV ranked third model in Q1 2026 and BYD held 2.3% brand share [models_q1_2026]. Used-import platforms—Geely Geometry, Changan E-Star/BenBen, BYD Dolphin/Seagull and others—must be ranked by the VIN extract, not web listings.

Formal OEM service includes BYD/MSTC in Marka and Changan locations across Amman, Irbid and Aqaba [byd] [changan]. Al Bayader already hosts visible EV independents such as EV Master and Alqaisi [evmaster] [alqaisi], while Prime covers roadside support [roadside]. EVS must differentiate with insurer-grade evidence, multi-brand HV governance, controlled battery custody and regional technical escalation—not generic maintenance.

Al Bayader–Naour–Airport Road ranks first for west/central Amman demand, workshop clustering, insurer/fleet access and industrial premises. Marka–Tabarbour–Sahab is the collision/OEM-overflow alternative. Zarqa Free Zone is the trader/PDI intake lane, not the preferred premium hub. Irbid becomes a mobile/fleet spoke after contracts; Aqaba is a later logistics/corridor option [evs_model].

Jordan does not present a simple cash subsidy. The effective proposition combines differentiated EV licensing fees, phased special tax by pre-customs value and time-of-use charging [tax_reform] [charging_tariff]. Tax rates increase across 2025–2027 bands, so policy is now a demand risk as well as an incentive. Economics assume no purchase grant and require per-VIN customs confirmation [customs_tax].

Invest Jordan advertises qualifying customs and zero-sales-tax treatment for inputs and a 10% development-zone income-tax rate for non-manufacturing registered enterprises [invest_incentives] [development_zones]. A repair/diagnostic centre must not book these until activity, location and input schedules are approved. Aqaba’s 5% framework is attractive but does not offset weak first-hub demand fit [aqaba].

The model uses nominal JOD revenue and costs before company tax and general sales tax. EVS must obtain a dated memo covering entity rate, GST, withholding, customs/parts treatment, intercompany charges and development-zone eligibility. Consumer EV special tax is volatile and segmented by pre-customs value [tax_reform]. No tax holiday or customs relief is included in pilot economics.

Labour Law 8/1996 and the Professional Work Regulation Law govern employment and occupational roles [labour_law]. EVS should validate work permits and trade classifications, then document competence for HV isolation, rescue, lifting, collision custody, battery fire response and heat exposure. General OSH enforcement applies even though no stand-alone Jordan automotive HV technician licence was located [osh].

Confirm entity/foreign ownership under the Investment Environment framework [investment_faq], commercial and chamber registration [business_registration], Greater Amman profession licence, planning/use, Civil Defence/fire, environmental and any warranty-platform approval [legal_framework]. Obtain site pre-clearance before lease. A partner bay must grant EVS operational control, data access, audit rights and safe quarantine access.

No public stand-alone automotive HV licence was located; absence is not permission. Apply named role levels, identify–isolate–lock–prove-dead, CAT-rated tools/PPE, two-person rescue for intrusive work, key custody, signage, thermal monitoring and platform-specific limits under labour/OSH rules [labour_law] [osh]. No pack opening or live work in the 90-day pilot.

Jordan’s hazardous-waste framework regulates permits, transport, storage, treatment and disposal [hazardous_waste]. Battery storage guidance requires environmental approval, insulated fire/chemical-resistant flooring, ventilation and fire systems [battery_rules]. Two collection facilities were licensed and 720 tonnes exported in 2024 [battery_export]. EVS must contract that chain and an approved quarantine before accepting damaged packs.

No workshop-specific Jordan EV heat-pump/refrigerant credential was verified. Launch scope is temperature, pressure-signal and leak-indication diagnosis without circuit opening. Refrigerant recovery, storage, technician competence, equipment calibration and waste route require written municipal/environmental/OSH confirmation before the service is activated [environment_law] [labour_law].

Mandatory warranty and consumer-protection systems require clear scope, provider and remedy records [warranty_memr]. Jordan’s Personal Data Protection Law 24/2023 became effective 17 March 2024 [privacy_faq]. EVS must map customer identity, VIN, images, video, telematics, diagnostic files and cross-border technical escalation; use explicit notices/consent and confirm any processing or transfer permits [privacy].

Start company-controlled within a licensed partner bay; no sub-franchise. The operating agreement must define brand/IP, customer ownership, data controller roles, warranty boundaries, pricing, QA audit, parts, safety authority, incident reporting and termination. Compare wholly/majority owned and controlled local-partner routes only after the non-Jordanian activity review [investment_faq]. Franchise requires 12 audited months.

Lead with paid battery-health/PDI, used-import evidence, collision isolation/insurer reports, charging/thermal/12V diagnosis, brakes/tyres/suspension and lawful software/connectivity triage. Add fleet night service and collection. Build a warranty-platform partnership/accreditation route. Hold pack opening, module repair, ADAS calibration and refrigerant circuit work until tools, data, training, insurance and authority gates pass.

Use two controlled bays, appointment/VIN pre-screen, Arabic/English authorisation, before/after evidence, calibrated tools, UAE/Saudi remote escalation and off-site approved quarantine. Hold only fast-moving wear/12V stock. Zarqa intake can be mobile; intrusive HV work stays at the hub. Every unsupported VIN is inspection-only or refused.

Cautious/base/high 90-day cases are 350/650/900 orders and JOD35,000/JOD97,500/JOD198,000 revenue. EBITDA is -JOD12,250/+JOD8,700/+JOD54,840. Base break-even is 539 orders [evs_model]. The permanent-site investment case is not approved until contracted monthly volume and 24-month downside payback are demonstrated.

Key risks are stale stock data, platform fragmentation, low-price independents, battery custody/fire, policy volatility, foreign-activity restrictions and OEM/warranty capture. Controls are a purchased registry extract, VIN matrix, controlled fixed-price evidence products, licensed waste/quarantine chain, quarterly policy review, pre-lease legal opinion and contracted fleet/insurer demand.

Days 0–25 secure the registry, legal/tax/authority matrix and partner-bay options. Days 10–35 build paid LOIs and the top-30 VIN matrix. Days 30–75 run at least 350 paid jobs; the investment gate requires 650. Days 50–85 convert six counterparties to 120 monthly minimum jobs. Day 90 chooses permanent hub, continued partner-bay validation or defer.

Continue only with current stock evidence, at least 650 paid orders, 52% gross margin, positive EBITDA, below 3% comeback, zero serious HV events, six contracts, 120 monthly jobs, 80% target-VIN coverage and a complete entity/premises/warranty/labour/battery/fire/data file. Permanent hub requires 24-month downside payback. Franchise requires 12 audited months [evs_model].

1. What are active BEV/PHEV counts by model, year and governorate through 2026?
2. Which customs flows converted to local licences, and how many vehicles were exported or inactive?
3. Can EVS or its partner join the mandatory-warranty platform?
4. Which ownership/activity and municipal licence applies?
5. Which handlers/quarantine can accept damaged lithium packs?
6. Which six counterparties will sign monthly minimums?
7. What VINs lack lawful tools, data or parts?

Research prioritised Jordan ministries/regulators, Petra-reported official data, Jordan Customs/JSMO/EMRC evidence, official OEM pages and recognised legal repositories. Publication and access dates are stored per source. Stock, clearance, import, assessment and combined electrified definitions are preserved separately. EVS assumptions and formulas are fully traceable in the calculation register.

The decisive gap is a current official active passenger BEV/PHEV extract. The 85,500 floor is end-2023 and may materially understate today; adding later customs flows would risk double counting. PHEV stock/sales, EV age curve, model/VIN distribution, regional ownership, connector census, labour/rent rates, insurer jobs and workshop capacity require primary diligence. Forecasts are sensitivities.

The linked registry records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and exact use note. Primary official sources are preferred; where official figures are delivered through Petra or secondary outlets, that limitation is stated. EVS internal calculations use a separate model source and never masquerade as national statistics.

Conditional go for a company-controlled Al Bayader–Naour–Airport Road pilot, with a permanent Amman hub only after the explicit gates pass. Jordan has sufficient installed scale and used-import complexity to justify immediate validation. Its opportunity is materially stronger than the smaller Gulf markets, but success depends on trusted multi-brand evidence, warranty/insurer access and controlled battery/HV governance—not a generic workshop or early franchise [evs_model].