EVS Worldwide
Market IntelligenceMiddle East

Lebanon

EVS Lebanon EV Service Centre Market Entry

Decision-grade Lebanon assessment separating AIA-member new-car flows, selected monthly BEV/PHEV registrations, HEVs, used/parallel imports, unavailable active plug-in stock, operator charging claims, current reported customs incentives and EVS assumptions.

Snapshot: 11 August 202634-page full report
Talk to the expansion team
Active plug-in stock
—

No authoritative active passenger/light-commercial plug-in stock series.

National connectors
—

No verified current national commissioned public connector census.

Gate SAM jobs/year
486

Only after 1,000 separately verified active Greater Beirut–Mount Lebanon plug-ins.

Base simple payback
7.143

USD 50k reversible capex assumption.

Executive summary

The verdict in full

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Market headline

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Market headline

AIA-member new-car registrations
Period
2025
Value
13,379
Unit
vehicles
Status
All powertrains; new flow, not parc [blom_2025].
December 2025 BEV registrations
Period
month
Value
72
Unit
vehicles
Status
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_2025].
December 2025 PHEV registrations
Period
month
Value
7
Unit
vehicles
Status
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_2025].
Current active passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEV stock
Period
current
Value
—
Unit
vehicles
Status
No authoritative separated active-stock series located.
National commissioned public connector count
Period
current
Value
—
Unit
connectors
Status
One operator reported >15 active chargers in July 2024; no national census [evzone].
Executable SOM
Period
pre-gates
Value
0
Unit
jobs
Status
Zero before all hard gates.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Market size and vehicle parc

Registration totals are AIA-member new-car flows, not active vehicle parc. Port imports include all powertrains and are not registrations.

Market size and vehicle parc

New-car registrations
Period
2025
Value
13,379
Definition
AIA-member flow, all powertrains [blom_2025].
New-car registrations
Period
2024
Value
8,226
Definition
AIA-member all-powertrain comparison cited by Italian Trade Agency [ice_market].
New-car sales
Period
2023
Value
6,578
Definition
All-powertrain series; no propulsion split [blom_2023].
New-car sales
Period
2022
Value
6,563
Definition
All-powertrain series; no propulsion split [blom_2023].
Car imports through Port of Beirut
Period
Jan–Apr 2025
Value
13,664
Definition
All cars/powertrains; not registrations or stock [port_imports].

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

BEV/PHEV sales, stock and adoption history

The propulsion observations are selected monthly flows. No full-year BEV/PHEV split or active-stock history was located.

BEV/PHEV sales, stock and adoption history

Nov 2024
Total New
426
Hev
66
Bev
19
Phev
2
Plug In Share Pct
4.93
Scope
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_nov24].
Apr 2025
Total New
601
Hev
88
Bev
37
Phev
10
Plug In Share Pct
7.82
Scope
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_apr25].
Aug 2025
Total New
1,255
Hev
135
Bev
50
Phev
18
Plug In Share Pct
5.418
Scope
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_aug25].
Oct 2025
Total New
1,470
Hev
131
Bev
66
Phev
26
Plug In Share Pct
6.259
Scope
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_oct25].
Dec 2025
Total New
1,312
Hev
144
Bev
72
Phev
7
Plug In Share Pct
6.021
Scope
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_2025].
Jan 2026
Total New
1,166
Hev
186
Bev
89
Phev
24
Plug In Share Pct
9.691
Scope
Monthly AIA-member flow [blom_jan26].

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Definition reconciliation

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Get the full Lebanon analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

adoption chart context

Selected monthly plug-in shares are useful market-flow signals, but the intervals are incomplete and cannot be treated as a continuous trend or stock series.

Observed monthly plug-in share rose between selected snapshots

AIA-member monthly new registrations; selected months only; HEVs excluded; not active stock.

493%
782%
541.8%
625.9%
602.1%
969.1%
Nov 2024
Apr 2025
Aug 2025
Oct 2025
Dec 2025
Jan 2026

Source: Multiple linked sources

Definition reconciliation

AIA-member new registrations
Use
Observable new-car flow among member importers
Not Equivalent To
Active parc, used/parallel imports, deregistrations or all market activity.
BEV and PHEV
Use
Plug-in categories included in EVS service-pool logic
Not Equivalent To
HEV/mild hybrid; HEV is excluded from plug-in TAM.
Port imports
Use
All-powertrain supply-flow context
Not Equivalent To
Registrations, unique vehicles, plug-ins or active stock.
Operator active chargers
Use
Commercial network minimum at a dated snapshot
Not Equivalent To
National sites/connectors, uptime, public access or 2026 availability.
Exhibitor/model presence
Use
Brand and capability diligence universe
Not Equivalent To
Sales rank, active stock or serviceable vehicles.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Cautious / base / high scenarios

These are EVS annual-flow share sensitivities on a static 2025 new-car denominator, not an official forecast or stock estimate.

Cautious / base / high scenarios

Cautious
Share Of Static 2025 New Car Volume Pct
5
Modelled 2030 Annual New Plug In Registrations
669
Basis
EVS sensitivity using 13,379 as a static 2025 AIA-member new-car flow denominator. Not a government or industry forecast; no stock accumulation is modelled.
Base
Share Of Static 2025 New Car Volume Pct
10
Modelled 2030 Annual New Plug In Registrations
1,338
Basis
EVS sensitivity using 13,379 as a static 2025 AIA-member new-car flow denominator. Not a government or industry forecast; no stock accumulation is modelled.
High
Share Of Static 2025 New Car Volume Pct
20
Modelled 2030 Annual New Plug In Registrations
2,676
Basis
EVS sensitivity using 13,379 as a static 2025 AIA-member new-car flow denominator. Not a government or industry forecast; no stock accumulation is modelled.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Charging infrastructure

The >15 figure is one operator’s dated active-charger claim, not a national site/connector or 2026 uptime census.

Charging infrastructure

EV Zone / IPT
Status
Operator said over 15 active chargers
Date
2024-07-11
Scope
One commercial network; site/connector/kW/access/uptime not fully audited [evzone].
National commissioned public EVSE
Status
—
Date
current
Scope
No authoritative site/connector census located.
2023 expansion announcement
Status
50 phase-one / 150 year-end plan
Date
2023
Scope
Plan only; superseded for active-count purposes by later >15 statement [evzone_plan].

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Electricity and grid readiness

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Electricity and grid readiness

Public-grid and private-generator mix
Evidence
NDC says electricity shortfall continues to be served by private diesel generators [ndc_pdf].
Implication
Meter site voltage, frequency, earthing, harmonics and outage behavior; specify UPS/conditioning and no-grid fallback.
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Get the full Lebanon analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Vehicle parc age and service demand

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

forecast chart context

The forecast bars show only the mathematical effect of 5%, 10% and 20% plug-in shares on static 2025 new-car flow. They do not accumulate vehicles or apply the NDC BAU growth assumption.

2030 annual new plug-in registration sensitivities

EVS shares of static 2025 AIA-member all-powertrain new-car flow; not an official forecast.

Cautious669
Base1,338
HighBase case2,676

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Vehicle parc age and service demand

Pre-crisis comparison
Evidence
9M 2024 new registrations 6,686 versus around 20,000 in 9M 2019 [credit_9m24].
Implication
Used/older all-powertrain parc likely material, but no authoritative EV age curve was located.
New plug-in monthly flows
Evidence
Plug-ins were 79 in Dec 2025 and 113 in Jan 2026 [blom_2025][blom_jan26].
Implication
Early-life warranty/OEM competition is strong; non-invasive and out-of-warranty/parallel-import capability matters.
Parallel/damaged imports
Evidence
AIA called for registration and recent pre-export inspection documentation [aia_imports].
Implication
Pre-purchase, battery/thermal, structural and diagnostic triage are relevant; prevalence is unquantified.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

EVS assumptions

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

EVS assumptions

Launch threshold
Value
1,000 active passenger/light-commercial plug-ins in Greater Beirut–Mount Lebanon
Classification
EVS hard gate; not market estimate.
Active factor
Value
90%
Classification
Applied only after matched active-stock gate.
Independent reach
Value
45%
Classification
Reflects warranty/OEM capture; test with paid demand.
Annual events
Value
1.20 per reachable vehicle
Classification
Planning assumption.
Currency
Value
Nominal USD-equivalent
Classification
Planning convention; no LBP translation or exchange guarantee.
Incentives
Value
Zero benefit in economics
Classification
No tax/customs/investment benefit until written eligibility.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM

Current active plug-in TAM remains null and executable SOM zero. The quantified pool is a board gate, not current market size.

Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM

TAM
Value
—
Unit
active passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEVs
Formula
Requires matched registration/import/retirement extract
Status
Unavailable; monthly new registrations cannot produce stock.
Gate pool
Value
1,000
Unit
active plug-ins
Formula
EVS board threshold
Status
Not current market size.
Gate active pool
Value
900
Unit
vehicles
Formula
1,000 × 90%
Status
EVS assumption.
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Get the full Lebanon analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Customer and fleet segments

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Customer and fleet segments

Authorized-dealer overflow / referrals
Need
Non-warranty tyres, alignment, brakes, suspension, AC/cooling and triage
Proof Required
Signed task boundary, warranty/referral protocol and paid jobs.
Parallel-import and used-EV owners
Need
Pre-purchase, scan, thermal/SOH evidence, 12V and consumables
Proof Required
VIN/task matrix, tool access and 30 paid bookings.
Corporate, rental and delivery fleets
Need
Uptime, inspection, telematics triage and preventive care
Proof Required
One paid trial or binding LOI covering 25+ plug-ins.
Insurers/body shops
Need
Post-impact isolation/triage and evidence pack
Proof Required
Insurer-approved scope; no structural or pack work without specialist route.
Charging hosts/operators
Need
Vehicle-side fault triage and EVSE referral
Proof Required
Site audit and service-level agreement.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Leading EV brands and models

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Leading EV brands and models

Monthly overall new-car leaders
Brands
Toyota, Kia, Nissan
Scope
December 2025 overall new market; not plug-in ranking [blom_2025].
January 2026 overall new-car leaders
Brands
Toyota, Nissan, MG
Scope
Overall market; not plug-in ranking [blom_jan26].
2025 e-MotorShow exhibitors
Brands
Arcfox; Audi; BAIC; BMW; Cadillac; Chevrolet; Fiat; Lexus; Maserati; Mazda; Mercedes-Benz; Porsche; Smart; Toyota; Voyah; Xpeng; Zeekr
Scope
Exhibitor presence only [emotorshow].
Leading BEV/PHEV models
Brands
—
Scope
No authoritative unit-ranking located; obtain VIN/model registrations before tooling and parts decisions.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Independent and OEM competitors

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Independent and OEM competitors

Authorized OEM/importer networks
Strength
Warranty, genuine parts, battery support, recalls and software access [aia_warranty].
EVS Response
Complementary non-warranty clinic and documented referrals; do not imply OEM authorization.
EV Zone / IPT
Strength
Known charging-network operator with app and >15 active chargers at July 2024 [evzone].
EVS Response
Partner/vehicle-side triage opportunity; independently audit sites and uptime.
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Priority cities and regions

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Priority cities and regions

1
Region
Greater Beirut / Mount Lebanon
Role
Pilot partner clinic
Rationale
Dealer, business and charging venue density; verify active plug-in VINs and power/site permits.
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Consumer incentives and policy

Current exemptions are reported from customs decisions through an official foreign trade agency. The model assumes no benefit until the signed Lebanese text and vehicle classification are obtained.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Consumer incentives and policy

New BEVs
Current Reported Treatment
Full customs-duty and internal-consumption-tax exemption; red-track inspection
Validity
10 Feb 2026–9 Feb 2031 reported
Control
Decision 9/2026 official text, HS/VIN ruling and current registration/mechanical charges [ice_customs26].
New hybrids including PHEV
Current Reported Treatment
80% customs/internal-consumption-tax exemption; red-track inspection and manufacturer certificate
Validity
10 Feb 2026–9 Feb 2031 reported
Control
Decision 10/2026 official text and propulsion classification [ice_customs26].
1 more row in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Business, tax and investment incentives

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Business, tax and investment incentives

Corporate income tax
Reported
17%
Treatment
Professional summary; written Lebanese tax opinion controls [pwc_cit].
VAT
Reported
11% standard
Treatment
Confirm registration, invoice currency and service/parts treatment [pwc_other].
3 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Labour, licensing and workshop regulation

Exact workshop, fire, HV, labour, environmental and insurer routes require written Lebanon-specific confirmation. This is not legal, tax, engineering or insurance advice.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Labour, licensing and workshop regulation

Entity and tax
Requirement
Register operating entity, tax/VAT and books; review franchise/non-resident flows.
Gate
Written lawyer/accountant matrix and current clearances [pwc_cit][pwc_other][pwc_admin].
Premises / land use / municipality
Requirement
Parcel-specific workshop use, municipal business permit, building/occupancy and signage.
Gate
Written municipality and Urban Planning confirmation [planning].
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

High-voltage controls

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

High-voltage controls

Competence
Minimum
Two assessed technicians; task-level authorization and rescue drill.
Status
No Lebanon-specific EV/HV technician credential route was verified.
Safe state
Minimum
Identify, isolate, lock/tag, prove dead, secure keys and document re-energization.
Status
Use manufacturer instructions plus written local safety/insurer controls.
Equipment
Minimum
Rated PPE/tools, CAT-rated meter/proving unit, barriers, insulated rescue hook and inspection logs.
Status
Standards are benchmarks, not proof of local adoption [iso_6469][ilo_osh].
EVSE work
Minimum
Licensed electrical contractor; no energized charger repair by vehicle technicians.
Status
IEC 61851/ISO 17409 benchmark only [iec_61851][iso_17409].
Software and cybersecurity
Minimum
Lawful subscriptions, consent, audit log, no unsupported immobilizer/ADAS/security bypass.
Status
VIN/task/OEM warranty matrix required.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Battery and waste controls

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Battery and waste controls

12V batteries, tyres, fluids and e-waste
Launch Rule
Named licensed collection/recipient, manifests and segregation before first job.
Evidence
Law 80/2018 and Decree 5606/2019 route [waste_law].
Damaged traction battery / module
Launch Rule
No custody, opening, storage, carriage or export before written classification, fire plan, insurer, carrier and named recipient.
Evidence
National law plus UN 38.3/Basel controls [waste_law][un_tests][basel].
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Operating model

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Operating model

Format
Recommendation
Partner-clinic bay inside an existing compliant Greater Beirut/Mount Lebanon workshop; mobile triage within controlled scope.
Commercial
Recommendation
USD-equivalent menu pricing, customer consent and documented LBP settlement if used; no consumer financing assumption.
Inventory
Recommendation
Fast-moving consumables only; parts ordered against VIN/deposit; no traction-pack inventory.
Quality
Recommendation
Digital intake, before/after scan, photo/thermal evidence, torque/inspection checklists and referral log.
Power
Recommendation
Metered dedicated circuit, conditioning/UPS for diagnostic systems and controlled outage procedure.
Data
Recommendation
Law 81/2018 consent, minimum collection, role access, retention schedule, encrypted transfer and vendor contracts [privacy_law].

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Franchise pathway

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Franchise pathway

0–90 days
Model
Managed partner clinic
Commitment
Reversible capex ≤USD 50k; no long lease/exclusivity.
Post-pilot
Model
Licensed service cell
Commitment
Only after 90-day gate and twelve-month evidence; task/VIN boundary remains.
Standalone franchise
Model
Deferred
Commitment
Requires verified regional active stock, sustained paid jobs, lawful waste route and ≤3-year base payback.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Pilot steady-state economics

All values are nominal USD-equivalent, VAT-exclusive and pre-tax EVS partner-clinic assumptions; no exchange-rate guarantee or incentive is used.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Pilot steady-state economics

Cautious
Jobs
80
Aro Usd
200
Gross Margin Pct
55
Opex Usd
12,000
Revenue Usd
16,000
Gross Profit Usd
8,800
Ebitda Usd
-3,200
Payback Years
—
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

90-day pilot economics

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day pilot economics

Cautious
Jobs 90d
20
Aro Usd
200
Gross Margin Pct
55
Opex Usd
3,000
Revenue Usd
4,000
Gross Profit Usd
2,200
Ebitda Usd
-800
2 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Risks and mitigations

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Risks and mitigations

Active-stock denominator unavailable
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
Matched registry/import VIN extract; executable SOM zero before gate.
Warranty/OEM/software capture
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Non-warranty scope, lawful tools and referral agreements [aia_warranty].
Grey/damaged import quality
Likelihood
Medium–High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Pre-purchase/structural/thermal triage and clear exclusions [aia_imports].
Grid/generator power quality
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Site tests, conditioning, UPS and outage workflow [ndc_pdf][generator_policy].
Conflict and disruption
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
Beirut/Mount Lebanon reversible format, mobile continuity, no South/Nabatiyeh capex [worldbank_rdna].
Banking/currency/cash controls
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Deposits, daily reconciliation, low inventory and no credit reliance [imf_2025].
Customs/incentive implementation
Likelihood
Medium
Impact
High
Mitigation
Official text and written HS/VIN ruling; model zero benefit [ice_customs26].
Battery fire/electric shock
Likelihood
Low
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No pack work; isolation, rescue and insurer controls.
No approved waste recipient
Likelihood
High
Impact
Critical
Mitigation
No battery custody before signed carrier/recipient route [waste_law].
Paid demand below gate
Likelihood
High
Impact
High
Mitigation
Deposits, fleet trial and day-90 stop.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

90-day entry plan

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

90-day entry plan

0–15
Objective
Definitions and law
Actions
Obtain AIA/registration/import VIN extract; commission entity/tax/customs/labour/workshop/fire/environment/waste/data/insurance matrices.
Owner
EVS board / Lebanon counsel
Deliverable
Evidence and compliance file.
4 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Explicit go / no-go gates

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Explicit go / no-go gates

Market denominator
Go
Matched extract proves at least 1,000 active passenger/light-commercial BEV/PHEVs in Greater Beirut–Mount Lebanon, separately classified.
No Go
Count below 1,000 or propulsion/class/region/active status unavailable.
5 more rows in the full report

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Methodology

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Methodology

1. Evidence hierarchy
Method
Lebanese authorities, official operators, multilaterals and official trade agencies first; professional/industry/secondary sources labelled.
2. Definition control
Method
Separate all-powertrain new sales/imports, AIA-member monthly BEV/PHEV flows, HEVs, active plug-in stock, model presence and commissioned EVSE.
3. Current market
Method
Leave active passenger/light-commercial plug-in TAM and national connector count null without matched authoritative data.
4. Forecast sensitivity
Method
Apply 5%/10%/20% to static 2025 AIA-member new-car flow; do not accumulate stock.
5. Gate SAM
Method
1,000 Greater Beirut–Mount Lebanon plug-ins × 90% active × 45% reach × 1.20 events.
6. SOM
Method
Zero before all hard gates.
7. Economics
Method
Nominal USD-equivalent, VAT-exclusive/pre-tax EVS assumptions; no incentive or LBP conversion.
8. Regulation
Method
No incentive, credential, permit, standard adoption or waste route assumed without written current confirmation.
9. Validation
Method
JSON/schema, formulas, citations, links, brand colours, definition control, duplicate search and template-residue checks.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

economics chart context

The economics bars are capacity-disciplined partner-clinic assumptions. Executable volume remains zero before all gates.

Full analysis available in the complete report
Detailed findings, comparison matrices and recommendations.

Greater Beirut / Mount Lebanon partner-clinic EBITDA

Nominal USD-equivalent; EVS steady-state assumptions.

Cautious-3k
Base7k
HighBase case30k

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Evidence gaps

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Evidence gaps

Active passenger/light-commercial BEV and PHEV count
Needed
Matched registration/import VIN extract by propulsion, class, region, registration and active status
Decision Effect
Blocks TAM and standalone centre/franchise.
Annual BEV/PHEV sales/stock/model history
Needed
Annual first registrations, used imports, deregistrations and model table
Decision Effect
Blocks forecast calibration and tooling inventory.
Public charging census
Needed
Site, connector, standard, kW, access, tariff, uptime and commissioning date
Decision Effect
Blocks national network claim.
Customs and fee treatment
Needed
Decisions 9/2026 and 10/2026, Gazette publication, HS/VIN ruling, registration/mechanical fee schedule
Decision Effect
Blocks landed-cost/incentive claim.
Workshop/HV credential and permits
Needed
Written municipality, Urban Planning, labour/CNSS, electrical, Civil Defence, environment and insurer route
Decision Effect
Blocks repair launch.
Traction-battery route
Needed
Classification, storage, carrier and named approved recipient
Decision Effect
Holds pack work.
Paid demand and OEM boundary
Needed
Bookings, fleet VINs, tool/parts/warranty access and paid trial
Decision Effect
Blocks continuation.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

Get the full Lebanon analysis
Competitive matrix, location shortlist, incentives, pilot-centre economics and the 90-day entry plan — sent to your inbox.

Complete linked source register

Every material quantitative claim is linked or explicitly labelled as an EVS assumption.

Complete linked source register

blom_2025
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2026-01-29
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Market-source AIA-member series: 13,379 new cars in 2025. December had 1,312 registrations, including 144 HEV, 72 BEV and 7 PHEV. Monthly propulsion split is not full-year plug-in sales or active stock.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/cumulative-lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-62-64-yoy-by-december-2025/
blom_jan26
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2026-02-25
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
January 2026: 1,166 new cars, including 186 HEV, 89 BEV and 24 PHEV. Monthly flow only.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/cumulative-lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-37-34-yoy-by-january-2026/
blom_oct25
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2025-11-27
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
10,917 cumulative new cars through October; October 1,470 total, including 131 HEV, 66 BEV and 26 PHEV.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/cumulative-lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-52-41-yoy-by-october-2025/
blom_apr25
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2025-05-29
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
2,926 cumulative new cars; April 601 total, including 88 HEV, 37 BEV and 10 PHEV.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/cumulative-lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-60-95-yoy-by-april-2025/
blom_aug25
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2025-09-25
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
8,016 cumulative new cars; August 1,255 total, including 135 HEV, 50 BEV and 18 PHEV.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/cumulative-lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-39-19-yoy-by-august-2025/
blom_nov24
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2024-12-24
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
7,589 cumulative new cars; November 426 total, including 66 HEV, 19 BEV and 2 PHEV.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-54-94-yoy-by-november-2024/
credit_9m24
Publisher
Credit Libanais
Publication Date
2024-10-30
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
AIA data: 6,686 new registrations in 9M 2024 versus 3,891 in 9M 2023 and around 20,000 in 9M 2019. All powertrains.
Href
https://economics.creditlibanais.com/Article/212353
credit_apr24
Publisher
Credit Libanais
Publication Date
2024-05-28
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
AIA data: 1,818 new registrations through April 2024 versus 1,480 prior-year; over 8,000 in four months of 2019. All powertrains.
Href
https://economics.creditlibanais.com/Article/212178
blom_2023
Publisher
BLOMINVEST Bank
Publication Date
2024-02-05
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Reports 6,578 new cars in 2023 versus 6,563 in 2022; no propulsion split.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/lebanon-pmi-moves-closer-to-50-0-stabilization-mark/
ice_market
Publisher
Italian Trade Agency
Publication Date
2025-11-17
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
AIA members registered 9,447 cars in 9M 2025; page estimated 12,596 for 2025 versus 8,226 in 2024. Later full-year source supersedes the 2025 estimate.
Href
https://www.ice.it/it/news/notizie-dal-mondo/294612
ice_customs26
Publisher
Italian Trade Agency
Publication Date
2026-02-27
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Reports Higher Customs Council Decisions 9/2026 and 10/2026: new BEVs fully exempt from customs and internal consumption tax; new hybrids receive 80% exemption; red-track inspection; validity through 9 February 2031. Obtain official Gazette/decision text and HS/VIN ruling before reliance.
Href
https://www.ice.it/it/news/notizie-dal-mondo/300210
lorient_budget24
Publisher
L’Orient Today
Publication Date
2024-02-23
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Historical Article 69 of the 2024 Budget: BEV customs/excise exemption and registration/mechanical reductions; later 2026 decisions control current treatment.
Href
https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1369147/lebanese-car-importers-welcome-extension-of-tax-breaks-for-electric-vehicles.html
customs_home
Publisher
Lebanese Customs
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official tariff, statistics, exemptions and vehicle-calculator portal; obtain a written current classification.
Href
https://www.customs.gov.lb/
customs_exemptions
Publisher
Lebanese Customs
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official exemptions route; dynamic page accessibility was inconsistent at research time.
Href
https://www.customs.gov.lb/exemptions/exemptions.aspx
port_imports
Publisher
Italian Trade Agency
Publication Date
2025-08-21
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
13,664 car imports versus 11,890 in the first four months of 2024; all powertrains and not registrations or EV stock.
Href
https://aziendeaccordi.ice.it/it/news/notizie-dal-mondo/287832
evzone
Publisher
IPT Group
Publication Date
2024-07-11
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Operator says over 15 chargers were active across multiple venue types. This is one network as of July 2024, not a current national site/connector census.
Href
https://www.iptgroup.com.lb/ipt/en/ev-zone-network-app-launching
evzone_plan
Publisher
INDEVCO Group
Publication Date
2023-02-20
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Earlier plan for 50 stations in phase one and 150 by year-end. Later active-count statement is used instead of this plan.
Href
https://news.indevcogroup.com/corporate/phoenix-energy-partners-with-ipt-to-launch-the-first-smart-ev-charging-network-in-lebanon/
ndc_page
Publisher
Lebanon Ministry of Environment
Publication Date
2025-09-30
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official landing page for Lebanon NDC 3.0.
Href
https://www.moe.gov.lb/%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-NDC-3-0.aspx
ndc_pdf
Publisher
Lebanon Ministry of Environment / UNFCCC
Publication Date
2025-09-30
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official 2035 targets: 22% unconditional and 33% conditional GHG reduction versus BAU; renewable electricity-demand share 25%/30%. Transport emitted 6,662 Gg CO2e in 2022, 32.5% of total. Draft e-mobility strategy and BAU growth assumptions are not current stock or official vehicle forecasts.
Href
https://www.moe.gov.lb/getattachment/ce603dea-5401-4daa-9f5c-0676fe08ba94/LBN-NDC-3-0-30-09-2025-Final_compressed.pdf.aspx?lang=ar-LB
energy_ministry
Publisher
Lebanon Ministry of Energy and Water
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official electricity and private-generator tariff portal; workshop supply must be site-tested.
Href
https://www.energyandwater.gov.lb/
generator_policy
Publisher
Lebanon Ministry of Economy and Trade
Publication Date
2025-08-22
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official evidence that private generators remain regulated and material; not a workshop power-quality measurement.
Href
https://www.economy.gov.lb/ar/announcements/%D8%B1%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D9%8A%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%85%D9%8B%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%B6%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%88%D9%84%D9%91%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA
worldbank_rdna
Publisher
World Bank
Publication Date
2025-03-07
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
RDNA: US$11bn recovery needs; US$14bn economic cost; 2024 real GDP contraction 7.1%; cumulative GDP decline since 2019 near 40%. South and Nabatiyeh most affected.
Href
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/03/07/lebanon-s-recovery-and-reconstruction-needs-estimated-at-us-11-billion
worldbank_lem
Publisher
World Bank
Publication Date
2025-06-19
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Spring 2025 LEM projected 4.7% real GDP growth and 15.2% inflation in 2025, contingent on stabilization; unresolved financial crisis constrains credit and investment.
Href
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/06/19/fragile-stabilization-fuels-growth-in-lebanon
imf_2026
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Publication Date
2026-02-13
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Current reform context: bank restructuring and comprehensive fiscal framework remain central; this was a staff visit, not an approved Fund arrangement.
Href
https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2026/02/13/pr-26050-lebanon-imf-staff-concludes-visit
imf_2025
Publisher
International Monetary Fund
Publication Date
2025-06-05
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Bank restructuring, cash-based economy, limited fiscal space and need for concessional reconstruction support.
Href
https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/06/05/pr-25182-lebanon-imf-staff-concludes-mission-to-lebanon
pwc_cit
Publisher
PwC
Publication Date
2026-07-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Professional summary: 17% CIT; 10% dividend WHT; 8.5% non-resident service WHT and 3.4% other non-resident WHT from Q2 2024. Written Lebanese tax advice controls.
Href
https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/lebanon/corporate/taxes-on-corporate-income
pwc_other
Publisher
PwC
Publication Date
2026-07-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Professional summary: standard VAT 11%; 2024 mandatory registration threshold LBP 5bn over one to four consecutive quarters. Confirm invoice currency, payroll and current filing treatment.
Href
https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/lebanon/corporate/other-taxes
pwc_admin
Publisher
PwC
Publication Date
2026-07-01
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Professional filing summary; local accountant confirmation required.
Href
https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/lebanon/corporate/tax-administration
idal
Publisher
IDAL
Publication Date
2026-07-29
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official investment-promotion and permit-assistance route under Investment Law 360.
Href
https://investinlebanon.gov.lb/
idal_incentives
Publisher
IDAL
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
PDC scheme can include tax, dividend, land-registration and permit-fee benefits for qualifying large projects; no benefit is assumed for this pilot without written eligibility.
Href
https://investinlebanon.gov.lb/en/doing_business/investment_incentives/incentives_granted_by_idal
cnss
Publisher
CNSS Lebanon
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official employer/social-security administration route; obtain current contribution ceilings/rates and clearance obligations in writing.
Href
https://www.cnss.gov.lb/
cnss_inspection
Publisher
CNSS Lebanon
Publication Date
2026-02-12
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official evidence of active employer inspection and undeclared-worker enforcement; not a contribution-rate source.
Href
https://www.cnss.gov.lb/2026/02/
planning
Publisher
Lebanon Ministry of Public Works and Transport
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official land-use/planning authority; a workshop site requires parcel-specific land-use and municipal confirmation.
Href
https://dgu.gov.lb/
waste_law
Publisher
Lebanon Ministry of Environment
Publication Date
2024-05-15
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official circular applies Integrated Solid Waste Management Law 80/2018 and Decree 5606/2019 procedures for hazardous-waste recovery, treatment and disposal facilities.
Href
https://www.moe.gov.lb/%D9%84%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%B5%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%AA/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AD%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AF-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86.aspx
privacy_law
Publisher
Banque du Liban
Publication Date
2018-10-10
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Official repository lists Law 81/2018 on Electronic Transactions and Personal Data. Counsel must map diagnostic telemetry, VIN/customer data, consent, retention and cross-border processing.
Href
https://www.bdl.gov.lb/laws.php
aia_imports
Publisher
Elsiyasa
Publication Date
2025-11-05
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Secondary relay of AIA statement citing Traffic Law Article 348 and pre-export inspection documentation. Signed law and customs/registration practice control.
Href
https://elsiyasa.com/article/385160
aia_warranty
Publisher
Elsiyasa
Publication Date
2025-11-07
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
AIA says authorized-representative vehicles have manufacturer warranty, genuine parts, battery support and recall/software monitoring. Treat as industry position; contract and law control.
Href
https://elsiyasa.com/article/385345/AIA%2BCalls%2Bfor%2BConsumer%2BProtection%2Bin%2BLebanon%2Bthrough%2Bthe%2BEnforcement%2Bof%2BArticle%2B44%2Bof%2BLaw%2BNo.%2B659
emotorshow
Publisher
Maqina
Publication Date
2025-05-12
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Exhibitors included Arcfox, Audi, BAIC, BMW, Cadillac, Chevrolet, Fiat, Lexus, Maserati, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Smart, Toyota, Voyah, Xpeng and Zeekr. Presence is not sales rank or active stock.
Href
https://www.maqina.me/post/beirut-hosts-the-third-edition-of-the-e-motorshow-middle-east-for-electric-hybrid-cars
iso_6469
Publisher
International Organization for Standardization
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
International benchmark; Lebanese adoption/edition and legal status not established.
Href
https://www.iso.org/standard/45477.html
iso_17409
Publisher
International Organization for Standardization
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
International benchmark; local electrical approvals control.
Href
https://www.iso.org/standard/68474.html
iec_61851
Publisher
International Electrotechnical Commission
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
International EVSE benchmark; not proof of Lebanese adoption.
Href
https://webstore.iec.ch/en/publication/33644
un_r100
Publisher
UNECE
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
International electric-powertrain safety reference; homologation applicability must be confirmed.
Href
https://unece.org/transport/documents/2022/03/standards/un-regulation-no-100-rev3
un_tests
Publisher
UNECE
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
UN 38.3 transport evidence route for lithium batteries; carrier and authority rules also control.
Href
https://unece.org/transport/dangerous-goods/rev8-files
ilo_osh
Publisher
International Labour Organization
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Management-system benchmark; Lebanese law, insurer and emergency services control.
Href
https://www.ilo.org/resource/other/guidelines-occupational-safety-and-health-management-systems-ilo-osh-2001
basel
Publisher
Basel Convention Secretariat
Publication Date
—
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
International hazardous-waste movement framework; competent-authority decisions and approved recipient required.
Href
https://www.basel.int/TheConvention/Overview/TextoftheConvention/tabid/1275/Default.aspx
mixed_sources
Publisher
EVS Research
Publication Date
2026-08-11
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
Table aggregates individually linked records.
Href
https://blog.blominvestbank.com/cumulative-lebanese-cars-market-expanded-by-62-64-yoy-by-december-2025/
evs_model
Publisher
EVS Worldwide
Publication Date
2026-08-11
Accessed At
2026-08-11
Scope
All explicitly labelled assumptions, thresholds, sensitivities and calculations are EVS decision inputs, not sourced market facts.
Href
https://www.evsworldwide.com/

Source: Multiple linked sources

Validation register

Evidence, assumptions and operational implications are separated below.

Validation register

JSON / UTF-8
Status
Pass
Detail
Generated and reparsed.
Schema
Status
Pass
Detail
Required roots, blocks, datasets, calculations and source registry present.
Calculations
Status
Pass
Detail
Monthly plug-in shares, forecast sensitivities, gate SAM and annual/90-day economics recomputed.
Definition control
Status
Pass
Detail
New-car flows, HEVs, plug-ins, active stock, port imports, exhibitors, charger plans and commissioned EVSE remain separate.
Branding
Status
Pass
Detail
EVS Green #5BCC12, Silver #A7B3BB, black/charcoal, white/light grey and Inter; no blue.
Decision
Status
Pass
Detail
Current plug-in TAM null, national connector census null, executable SOM zero and hard gates explicit.

Source: EVS Lebanon decision model

EVS Board Position

CONDITIONAL GO only for an evidence-gated Greater Beirut/Mount Lebanon partner clinic; NO-GO standalone/franchise; DEFER regional fixed capex; HOLD traction-pack work.

Source register

47 primary and derived sources

Show
  1. 01Cumulative Lebanese car market expanded by 62.64% YoY by December 2025
  2. 02Lebanese car market expanded by 37.34% YoY by January 2026
  3. 03Lebanese car market expanded by 52.41% YoY by October 2025
  4. 04Lebanese car market expanded by 60.95% YoY by April 2025
  5. 05Lebanese car market expanded by 39.19% YoY by August 2025
  6. 06Lebanese car market expanded by 54.94% YoY by November 2024
  7. 07New car registrations in Lebanon through September 2024
  8. 08New car registrations in Lebanon through April 2024
  9. 09Lebanon PMI moves closer to stabilization mark
  10. 10Lebanon automotive market update
  11. 11Lebanon customs decisions for electric and hybrid vehicles
  12. 12Lebanese car importers welcome extension of EV tax breaks
  13. 13Lebanese Customs
  14. 14Customs exemptions
  15. 15Car imports through Port of Beirut, first four months 2025
  16. 16EV Zone network and application launch
  17. 17Phoenix Energy and IPT announce EV charging network plan
  18. 18Lebanon NDC 3.0
  19. 19Lebanon NDC 3.0 report
  20. 20Ministry of Energy and Water
  21. 21Government circular on private-generator violations
  22. 22Lebanon recovery and reconstruction needs estimated at US$11 billion
  23. 23Fragile stabilization fuels growth in Lebanon
  24. 24IMF staff concludes visit to Lebanon
  25. 25IMF staff concludes mission to Lebanon
  26. 26Lebanon corporate income tax
  27. 27Lebanon other taxes
  28. 28Lebanon tax administration
  29. 29Investment Development Authority of Lebanon
  30. 30Incentives granted by IDAL
  31. 31National Social Security Fund
  32. 32CNSS inspection results for 2025
  33. 33Directorate General of Urban Planning
  34. 34Implementation of Law 80/2018 and hazardous-waste decree
  35. 35Lebanese laws repository
  36. 36AIA statement on damaged and unroadworthy vehicle imports
  37. 37AIA calls for consumer protection through Article 44 of Law 659
  38. 38Beirut hosts third E-MotorShow Middle East
  39. 39ISO 6469 electrified road-vehicle safety
  40. 40ISO 17409 conductive power transfer
  41. 41IEC 61851-1 conductive charging system
  42. 42UN Regulation No. 100
  43. 43UN Manual of Tests and Criteria
  44. 44ILO-OSH 2001 guidelines
  45. 45Basel Convention text
  46. 46Multiple linked sources
  47. 47EVS Lebanon decision model

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