Trinidad and Tobago.

• Approve diligence and a reversible pilot, not a dedicated centre. Exact 2025 customs data show 1,563 BEVs and 153 PHEVs, or 9.43% of 18,199 passenger imports [uncomtrade_2025_bev] [uncomtrade_2025_phev] [uncomtrade_2025_total].
• Keep ordinary hybrids separate. 11,871 non-plug HEVs were imported in 2025; they are a large adjacency but not plug-in stock [uncomtrade_2025_hev].
• Use Chaguanas/Cunupia first. Central access, dealer/independent EV activity and listed charging make it the most reversible operating base [unipet_ucharge] [ansa_service] [evolve].
• No investment is authorised yet. Executable SOM is zero until VIN, demand, compliance, HV, software, battery-route, economics and safety gates pass.

Authorise up to 90 days of diligence and a managed one-bay pilot inside a compliant Chaguanas/Cunupia partner. Do not sign a standalone lease, sell a franchise, open traction batteries or recognise market share. Advance only if ≥250 supported VINs, two LOIs, 25 jobs/month, written approvals, 90 paid pilot jobs and the TTD500,000/4.0-year capital gate are evidenced.

The 2022–2025 documented cohort proxy totals 3,356 vehicles: 159, 476 and 1,005 under Trinidad and Tobago’s HS2012 residual code 870390, then 1,716 exact plug-ins in 2025 [uncomtrade_2022_other] [uncomtrade_2023_other] [uncomtrade_2024_other] [uncomtrade_2025_bev] [uncomtrade_2025_phev]. The proxy supports a pilot; it cannot support a greenfield centre without a VIN/registration audit.

Imports measure border flows; registrations measure administrative records; active stock requires deregistration/inactivity adjustments. HS2012 870390 is a residual other-propulsion category. Ordinary HEVs, buses, motorcycles, charging locations and connectors remain separate.

Each case starts with the 3,289-vehicle active cohort proxy, applies 2% annual attrition, and rolls forward the 2025 plug-in flow at 0%, 20% or 35% annual growth to 2030. These are EVS planning envelopes, not official forecasts.

UNIPET’s current U•Charge page lists six Trinidad locations, while its history page states three chargers; the grains and dates differ [unipet_ucharge] [unipet_history]. UWI adds a documented solar site. EVChargeTT examples were still marked coming soon, so none are counted as operating [uwi_charger] [evchargett].

More than one million cumulative vehicle registrations are often cited, but that administrative total does not remove inactive units [vehicle_registrations]. Passenger imports were 18,308 in 2024 and 18,199 in 2025, creating continued multi-origin parts, connector and software complexity [wits_2024_vehicles] [uncomtrade_2025_total]. No official plug-in age/VIN file was located.

TAM starts with the 3,356 documented cohort proxy, applies a 98% active factor and 1.25 annual service events. SAM applies 70% urban-Trinidad concentration and 45% independent reach. All are EVS assumptions. Current executable SOM is zero.

The best early customers are privately imported or out-of-warranty cars and fleets that value downtime reduction. Warranty-covered official cars remain with authorised networks unless referred in writing. Ordinary HEVs, buses and motorcycles are separate propositions.

BYD has an authorised regional route, Proton launched the e.MAS 7 with ANSA, and independent channels advertise multiple Chinese brands [byd_authorisation] [proton_emas] [evolve]. No audited registration share by brand/model was located, so software subscriptions and parts are purchased only against named VIN demand.

ATL-Lafast/BYD, ANSA/Proton and other OEM groups have parts, warranty and software advantages. EVS should compete on cross-brand evidence, pre-purchase battery health, chassis/HVAC work, grey-import support and fleet SLAs—not unsupported coding or warranty displacement.

Chaguanas/Cunupia offers highway reach and ecosystem density. The East-West Corridor concentrates corporate/premium demand; South adds industrial fleets. Tobago remains mobile/referral-only until paid density and logistics justify a fixed presence.

The 2026 budget regime reportedly preserves relief for lower-value EVs while EVs above TTD400,000 CIF face duty, VAT and tiered motor-vehicle tax from 1 January 2026 [finance_budget2026] [newsday_ev_tax2026]. Charger/selected-parts relief began in 2025 [finance_charger_waiver]. EVS books zero benefit until legal notices and HS lines are confirmed.

VAT registration is triggered at TTD200,000 annual or forecast taxable sales [finance_vat]. The pilot uses TTD6.78/USD as an EVS planning rate anchored to Central Bank dealer-rate observations, with ±10% imported-cost stress [cbtt_fx]. No tax or customs benefit is booked.

The pilot needs entity/tax/employer registration, planning/use and fire acceptance, EMA scope decisions, waste permits/contracts, electrical commissioning, insurance and consumer/data controls [company_registry] [osha_occupier] [ema_waste]. Vehicle testing is a separate authorisation [transport_testing].

Local practical training exists, but no statutory EV-specific technician licence was located [sbcs_hv_training]. EVS therefore requires named authorisation, observed isolation, live/dead/live proof, LOTO, rescue drills, qualified electrical work and insurer-approved quarantine.

EMA’s rules place hazardous waste at any quantity inside the permitting regime; cross-border movements require Basel controls [ema_waste] [ema_basel]. Because no public traction-battery receiver list was located, phase 1 performs only non-invasive diagnostics and refuses damaged-pack custody.

Phase 1 focuses on diagnostics, battery-health reports, charging faults, tyres/alignment/brakes, 12V, cooling/HVAC and fleet preventive maintenance. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack storage and unsupported software programming are excluded.

EVS supplies the technical operating system, authorisation matrix, job-card controls and audit. The local partner supplies compliant premises, people and ordinary workshop infrastructure. Brand transfer, franchise fees and a standalone lease wait for 90-day proof.

At 360 jobs/year, TTD2,200 ARO and 64% gross margin, the model produces TTD146,880 annual EBITDA on TTD500,000 capex—a 3.40-year simple payback. The cautious case loses TTD181,800. These are EVS assumptions before VAT, tax, debt, depreciation and working capital.

The investment can fail through an overstated active pool, HS-residual contamination, unsupported VINs, OEM warranty capture, FX/parts delay or unsafe battery custody. The mitigation is structural: no standalone lease, VIN-led tooling, written exclusions, deposits, lawful waste routes and stop-work gates.

The sequence is VIN file, partner audit, demand commitments, compliance, technical proof, suppliers and a paid pilot. The decision committee receives the same weekly job, ARO, gross-margin, turnaround, comeback, parts-lead-time, safety and referral dashboard used by the operator.

A market file alone cannot authorise capital. Demand, paid traction, economics, compliance, technical competence, battery routing and quality must all pass. Any safety, insurer, electrical or environmental failure stops the affected scope immediately.

The report prioritises UN, government, operator and manufacturer evidence; records publication/access dates; keeps data grains separate; labels every EVS assumption; and uses deterministic formulas. Customs cohorts are a planning proxy—not a registration stock.

The linked register records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use note. Dynamic APIs and operator pages should be archived in the diligence data room before investment.

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a managed Chaguanas/Cunupia one-bay pilot. HOLD a greenfield centre, franchise award, secondary fixed sites and all traction-pack opening/removal/custody. Current executable SOM is zero until every gate passes.