Jamaica.

• Approve diligence and a reversible pilot, not a dedicated centre. Jamaica’s documented light plug-in stock reached 897 at Q1 2026, up from 552 in 2024 [olacde_pdf_2026] [olacde_2024_552].
• Keep flows and technologies separate. Approximate 2025 imports were 411 BEVs, 121 PHEVs and 4,065 ordinary HEVs; only plug-ins enter the core pool [uncomtrade_2025_bev] [uncomtrade_2025_phev] [uncomtrade_2025_hev].
• Use Kingston–St Andrew first. Dealer, fleet and ecosystem density make a compliant partner bay the most reversible base [atl_contact] [jeva].
• No investment is authorised yet. Executable SOM is zero until cumulative market, demand, compliance, HV, battery, economics and quality gates pass.

Authorise up to 90 days of diligence and a managed one-bay pilot inside a compliant Kingston–St Andrew partner. Do not sign a standalone lease, sell a franchise, open traction batteries or recognise market share. Advance only if ≥250 supported corridor VINs, two LOIs, 20 bookings, written approvals, 45 paid pilot jobs and the JMD6.5m/4.0-year capital gate are evidenced.

OLACDE reports 897 light BEV+PHEVs at Q1 2026 versus 552 in 2024 [olacde_pdf_2026] [olacde_2024_552]. The regulator’s nearly 300 registered EVs in 2024 appears narrower, so it is retained as a cross-check rather than blended [our_ev_market]. Customs flows show direction, not active stock.

Light stock, narrower registrations and annual customs imports are different measures. Ordinary hybrids, six JUTC battery buses, institutional buses, motorcycles, charging points, plugs, locations and stations remain separate [jutc_buses] [three_bebs].

Each case compounds the 897-vehicle Q1 2026 stock for four years to 2030 at 18%, 35% or 50%. These are EVS planning envelopes, not official forecasts.

JPS announced 39 operating points by June 2025 after a 37-plug/17-location baseline [jps_39_points] [jps_37_plugs]. Evergo reported 70 stations islandwide [evergo_70]. Operator and grain differ, so the figures are never added; field audit must record site, connector, power and uptime.

Public passenger vehicles are overwhelmingly old, but that does not describe plug-ins [ppv_age]. Digital certificates and registration transactions are administrative counts, not active parc [efitness_446610] [registrations_online_1m]. The missing VIN/age/parish file is a capital gate.

TAM starts with 897 light plug-ins, applies a 97% active factor and 1.25 annual events. SAM applies 65% corridor concentration and 45% independent reach. All are EVS assumptions. Current executable SOM is zero.

Prioritise unsupported/out-of-warranty owners and rental, corporate, ride-hailing and institutional light fleets. Warranty-covered official cars remain with authorised networks unless referred. Ordinary HEVs and buses are separate propositions.

BYD/ATL, MG, Tesla channels and newer Omoda, Jaecoo and JMEV supply create multi-brand demand [byd_faq] [mg_launch] [tropical_tesla] [kintyre]. No audited registration share by model was located, so subscriptions and parts follow named VIN demand.

ATL’s multi-brand network and emerging importers have warranty, parts and software leverage [atl_contact]. EVS should compete on cross-brand evidence, pre-purchase battery health, grey-import support, chassis/HVAC and fleet SLAs—not unsupported programming or warranty displacement.

Kingston–St Andrew is the pilot base, St Catherine a collection route, Montego Bay a scheduled clinic and the North Coast referral-led. Fixed expansion waits for paid VIN density and parts logistics.

Reported policy cut qualifying BEV duty from 30% to 10% and waived licence fees, while Jamaica Customs states BEVs are GCT-exempt [ev_duty_relief] [customs_gct]. Confirm legal notices, tariff line, age and the reported July 2027 horizon for every transaction.

The pilot uses JMD158.8/USD, rounded from a Bank of Jamaica published conversion rate [boj_fx]. Standard corporate income tax is reported at 25%; SEZ relief is not assumed [jampro_tax]. No vehicle, parts, charger or project benefit is booked without written approval.

The pilot needs entity/tax/employer setup, planning/use and factory determinations, electrical certification, environmental/waste acceptance, insurer/fire approval and operating controls [orcj] [osh_factories] [ger_works] [nepa_permits].

No statutory EV-specific technician licence was located. EVS therefore requires named authorisation, observed isolation, live/dead/live proof, LOTO, rescue drills, GER-compliant electrical work and insurer-approved quarantine [ger_works].

Jamaica has authorised e-waste collection routes, but no public traction-battery receiver list was located [nepa_ewaste_route] [nswma_ewaste]. Phase 1 performs non-invasive diagnostics only and refuses damaged-pack custody pending written acceptance and Basel-compliant routing.

Phase 1 focuses on scan evidence, battery health, charging faults, 12V, cooling/HVAC, tyres/alignment/brakes and fleet preventive care. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack storage and unsupported programming are excluded.

EVS supplies the technical operating system, authorisation matrix, job-card controls and audit. The partner supplies compliant premises, people and ordinary workshop infrastructure. Franchise fees, territory and standalone lease wait for 90-day proof.

At 180 jobs/year, JMD65,000 ARO and 65% gross margin, the model produces JMD2.005m annual EBITDA on JMD6.5m capex—a 3.24-year simple payback. The cautious case loses JMD3.129m. These are EVS assumptions before indirect tax, income tax, debt, depreciation and working capital.

The investment can fail through a small reachable pool, warranty capture, unsupported VINs, policy sunset, FX/parts delay or unsafe battery custody. Controls are structural: no standalone lease, VIN-led tooling, written exclusions, deposits, lawful routes and stop-work gates.

The sequence is VIN file, partner audit, commitments, compliance, technical proof, suppliers and a paid pilot. Weekly reporting covers jobs, ARO, gross margin, turnaround, comeback, parts lead time, safety and referrals.

A reported stock cannot authorise capital. Demand, paid traction, economics, compliance, technical competence, battery routing and quality must all pass. Any safety, electrical, insurer or environmental failure stops the affected scope.

The report prioritises OLACDE, UN, Jamaican government, regulator, operator and manufacturer evidence; records dates; keeps data grains separate; labels EVS assumptions; and uses deterministic formulas.

The linked register records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use note. Dynamic APIs and pages should be archived in the diligence data room before investment.

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a managed Kingston–St Andrew one-bay pilot. HOLD a greenfield centre, franchise award, secondary fixed sites and all traction-pack opening/removal/custody. Current executable SOM is zero until every gate passes.