Bahamas.

• Approve diligence and a reversible pilot, not a dedicated centre. Exact UN customs data documents 1,436 passenger plug-in imports in 2022–2024; EVS applies a 97% active haircut to a 1,393-vehicle planning pool [uc_2022_bev] [uc_2023_bev] [uc_2024_bev].
• Growth is real but definitions matter. 2024 imports were 473 BEVs, 186 PHEVs and 2,004 ordinary hybrids; only plug-ins enter the core pool [uc_2024_bev] [uc_2024_phev_s] [uc_2024_phev_d] [uc_2024_hev_s] [uc_2024_hev_d].
• Use Nassau first. New Providence held 70.8% of the reported 2022 wider parc and concentrates authorised dealers and fleet demand [vehicle_parc_2022] [easy_cars].
• No investment is authorised yet. Executable SOM is zero until cumulative market, demand, compliance, HV, battery, economics and quality gates pass.

Authorise up to 90 days of diligence and a managed one-bay pilot inside a compliant Nassau partner. Do not sign a standalone lease, sell a franchise, open traction batteries or recognise market share. Advance only if ≥400 supported VINs, two LOIs, 30 bookings, written approvals, 60 paid pilot jobs and the BSD60,000/4.0-year capital gate are evidenced.

Exact passenger plug-in imports rose from 271 in 2022 to 506 in 2023 and 659 in 2024 [uc_2022_bev] [uc_2023_bev] [uc_2024_bev]. Their sum—1,436—is a transparent cohort proxy, not active stock. The 436 registered electric vehicles reported in 2022 may overlap and is not added [vehicle_parc_2022].

Customs flows, live stock and registered vehicles are different measures. Ordinary hybrids, government fleet announcements, golf carts, motorcycles, charging apps, ports, plugs and planned hubs remain separate.

Each case compounds the 1,436-unit end-2024 documented cohort for six years to 2030 at 15%, 25% or 35%. These are EVS planning envelopes, not official forecasts. The NDC’s conditional 2035 target is directional policy support, not a stock forecast [ndc_3_pdf].

Wattport and dealer evidence shows home and public charging activity [wattport] [easy_ev_steps] [dealer_sales_2025]. No authoritative, deduplicated operating inventory by site, connector, power and uptime was located. Planned MTS capacity is not counted [mts_hub].

The 2022 ministerial count covered 263,672 vehicles on only eight islands, including 186,690 in New Providence and 43,506 in Grand Bahama [vehicle_parc_2022]. Registration transactions are not active stock [road_traffic_2025]. The missing plug-in VIN/age/island file is a capital gate.

TAM starts with the 1,436-unit documented import cohort, applies a 97% active factor and 1.2 annual events. SAM applies 80% New Providence concentration and 45% independent reach. Every conversion is an EVS assumption; current executable SOM is zero.

Prioritise grey/out-of-warranty owners and rental, hospitality, corporate and government light fleets. Warranty-covered official vehicles remain with authorised networks unless referred. Ordinary hybrids and golf carts are separate propositions.

BYD, JAC, Geely, GAC Aion, Hongqi, Tesla and grey imports create a mixed parc [easy_cars] [gac_launch] [wattport]. No audited registration share by model was located, so subscriptions, training and parts follow named VIN demand.

Easy Car Sales and EV Motors have authorised-brand, warranty, parts and software leverage [easy_byd_2025] [gac_launch]. EVS should compete on cross-brand evidence, pre-purchase battery health, unsupported/out-of-warranty VINs, chassis/HVAC and fleet SLAs—not warranty displacement.

New Providence is the managed-bay pilot, Freeport a scheduled clinic/referral market, Paradise Island a fleet route and Family Islands mobile/referral only. Fixed expansion waits for paid VIN density, power and parts logistics.

The 2024 Budget states electric and hybrid vehicle duty was reduced to 10% [budget_2024]. Historical thresholds and sunset language differ [budget_2018] [budget_2019_tax]. Confirm the current tariff line, customs value, VAT and enacted licence fee for every transaction.

The pilot is nominal BSD, indirect-tax exclusive. VAT is 10% [vat] [vat_2026]. Business Licence treatment is turnover-based/current-schedule dependent; ordinary businesses generally lack corporate income tax, while large in-scope MNE groups may face DMTT [business_licence] [corporate_tax]. Obtain local advice.

The pilot needs entity/tax/VAT/Business Licence setup, planning/use and occupancy, licensed and inspected electrical work, utility approval, labour/OSH controls, DEPP/waste acceptance, insurer/fire approval and operating procedures [business_licence] [gbpc_connection] [labour_portal] [depp_haz].

No statutory EV-specific technician licence was located. EVS therefore requires named authorisation, observed isolation, live/dead/live proof, LOTO, rescue drills, licensed electrical work and insurer-approved quarantine.

DEPP publishes hazardous-waste and Basel controls, but no public traction-battery receiver list was located [depp_haz]. Phase 1 performs non-invasive diagnostics only and refuses damaged-pack custody pending written OEM/receiver/regulator acceptance.

Phase 1 focuses on scan evidence, battery health, charging faults, 12V, cooling/HVAC, tyres/alignment/brakes and fleet preventive care. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack storage and unsupported programming are excluded.

EVS supplies the technical operating system, authorisation matrix, job-card controls and audit. The partner supplies compliant premises, people and ordinary workshop infrastructure. Franchise fees, territory and standalone lease wait for 90-day proof.

At 240 jobs/year, BSD350 ARO and 62% gross margin, the model produces BSD16,080 annual EBITDA on BSD60,000 capex—a 3.73-year simple payback. The cautious case loses BSD16,200. These are EVS assumptions before VAT, income tax/DMTT if applicable, debt, depreciation and working capital.

The investment can fail through an overstated active cohort, warranty capture, unsupported VINs, policy change, island logistics, weak charging or unsafe battery custody. Controls are structural: no standalone lease, VIN-led tooling, written exclusions, deposits, lawful routes and stop-work gates.

The sequence is VIN file, partner audit, commitments, compliance, technical proof, suppliers and a paid pilot. Weekly reporting covers jobs, ARO, gross margin, turnaround, comeback, parts lead time, safety and referrals.

A customs cohort cannot authorise capital. Demand, paid traction, economics, compliance, technical competence, battery routing and quality must all pass. Any safety, electrical, insurer or environmental failure stops the affected scope.

The report prioritises UN, Bahamian government, regulator, utility and manufacturer evidence; records access dates; keeps data grains separate; labels EVS assumptions; and uses deterministic formulas.

The linked register records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use note. Dynamic APIs and pages should be archived in the diligence data room before investment.

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a managed Nassau/New Providence one-bay pilot. HOLD a greenfield centre, franchise award, Grand Bahama fixed site and all traction-pack opening/removal/custody. Current executable SOM is zero until every gate passes.