Barbados.

• Approve diligence and a reversible pilot, not a dedicated centre. UN customs data yields an approximately 5,975-unit 2022–2025 plug-in cohort; EVS applies a 97% active factor to a 5,796-vehicle planning pool [uncomtrade_api].
• 2025 was a step-change, but the denominator is not stock. Technology-line quantities were 3,769 BEVs and 50 PHEVs; the broad passenger import denominator was estimated at 8,804.075 [uc_2025_bev] [uc_2025_phev_s] [uc_2025_phev_d] [uc_2025_total].
• Use a central partner and respect OEM boundaries. Megapower, Inchcape and Courtesy Garage provide meaningful authorised/specialist competition [megapower] [inchcape_launch] [dealer_sales_2026].
• No investment is authorised yet. Executable SOM is zero until cumulative market, demand, compliance, HV, battery, economics and quality gates pass.

Authorise up to 90 days of diligence and a managed one-bay pilot inside a compliant Bridgetown–Wildey corridor partner. Do not sign a standalone lease, sell a franchise, open traction batteries or recognise market share. Advance only if ≥1,500 supported active VINs, two LOIs, 45 bookings, written approvals, 90 paid pilot jobs and the BBD180,000/4.0-year capital gate are evidenced.

Passenger plug-in import quantities rose from about 295 in 2022 to 876 in 2023, 985 in 2024 and 3,819 in 2025 [uc_2022_bev] [uc_2023_bev] [uc_2024_bev] [uc_2025_bev]. Their rounded sum—5,975—is a cohort proxy. The historical 650-EV statement and 181,544 wider registered vehicles are non-additive cross-checks [historic_stock_2021] [parc_2026].

Customs flows, live stock and registered vehicles are different measures. Ordinary hybrids, public buses, dealer sales mix, sites, connectors and plugs remain separate. Estimated quantities are not presented as exact counts.

Each case compounds the 5,975-unit end-2025 customs cohort for five years to 2030 at 15%, 25% or 35%. These are EVS planning envelopes, not official forecasts. Barbados policy and ETIP direction support electrification but do not validate this service denominator [energy_policy] [etip].

BLPC says Megapower public chargers operate at numerous locations; ChargePanel and TomTom provide further network evidence [blpc_faq] [chargepanel] [tomtom_coverage]. A 40-point study is historical [mdpi_charging]. No authoritative deduplicated operating inventory by site, connector, power and uptime was located.

The wider registered parc was reported at 181,544 in February 2026 [parc_2026]. A 2022 official statement reported 70% of the then-wider parc older than 20 years [historic_stock_2021]. Neither statistic describes plug-in age. The missing VIN/age/warranty file is a capital gate.

TAM starts with the 5,975-unit customs cohort, applies a 97% active factor and 1.2 annual events. SAM applies 85% core-corridor concentration and 45% independent reach. Every conversion is an EVS assumption; current executable SOM is zero.

Prioritise grey/out-of-warranty owners and rental, tourism, corporate and government light fleets. Warranty-covered official vehicles remain with authorised networks unless referred. Ordinary hybrids and 89+ public buses require separate propositions [bus_2025].

MG, Nissan, Jaguar, Deepal, Suzuki, Jeep, Mercedes-Benz, Chery, Tesla, BYD and other imports create a mixed parc [megapower_models] [inchcape_launch] [dealer_sales_2026]. No audited registration share by model was located, so subscriptions, training and parts follow named VIN demand.

Megapower already sells, services and supports charging; Inchcape and Courtesy Garage expand authorised electrified portfolios [megapower] [inchcape_launch] [dealer_sales_2026]. EVS should compete on cross-brand evidence, unsupported/out-of-warranty VINs, chassis/HVAC and fleet SLAs—not warranty displacement.

A Bridgetown–St Michael–Wildey partner bay maximises central access. Christ Church is a clinic/collection corridor, St James a tourism/premium route, and the rest of the island mobile/referral only. Compact geography weakens the case for a second fixed site.

Customs implemented/extended CPC 936 for the excise-duty and VAT holiday from 1 April 2026 [customs_2026]. Professional reporting says the Budget proposed extension to March 2029 and 10% import duty [kpmg_budget]. Obtain a written ruling on tariff line, customs value, eligibility and term for every vehicle or part.

The pilot is nominal BBD, indirect-tax exclusive. Standard VAT is 17.5%, the posted registration threshold is BBD200,000, and corporate income tax starts at 5.5% for taxable income up to BBD1m [bra_vat] [bra_cit]. Confirm any 2026 threshold change and group top-up-tax exposure [bra_topup].

The pilot needs entity/BRA/VAT setup, planning/use approval, licensed and inspected electrical work, utility acceptance, labour/OSH controls, annual fire inspection, EPD/waste routes and insurer approval [planning] [geed] [labour] [fire] [epd_haz].

No statutory EV-specific technician licence was located. EVS therefore requires named authorisation, observed isolation, live/dead/live proof, LOTO, rescue drills, licensed electrical work and insurer/fire-approved quarantine.

EPD publishes hazardous-material and Basel controls and identifies ordinary automotive batteries/electronics, but no public traction-battery receiver list was located [epd_haz] [epd_waste]. Phase 1 performs non-invasive diagnostics only and refuses damaged-pack custody pending written acceptance.

Phase 1 focuses on scan evidence, battery health, charging faults, 12V, cooling/HVAC, tyres/alignment/brakes and fleet preventive care. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack storage and unsupported programming are excluded.

EVS supplies the technical operating system, authorisation matrix, job-card controls and audit. The partner supplies compliant premises, people and ordinary workshop infrastructure. Franchise fees, territory and standalone lease wait for 90-day proof.

At 360 jobs/year, BBD700 ARO and 62% gross margin, the model produces BBD48,240 annual EBITDA on BBD180,000 capex—a 3.73-year simple payback. The cautious case loses BBD48,600. These are EVS assumptions before VAT, income tax, debt, depreciation and working capital.

The investment can fail through an overstated active cohort, warranty capture, unsupported VINs, fiscal change, weak charging or unsafe battery custody. Controls are structural: no standalone lease, VIN-led tooling, written exclusions, deposits, lawful routes and stop-work gates.

The sequence is VIN file, partner audit, commitments, compliance, technical proof, suppliers and a paid pilot. Weekly reporting covers jobs, ARO, gross margin, turnaround, comeback, parts lead time, safety and referrals.

A customs cohort cannot authorise capital. Demand, paid traction, economics, compliance, technical competence, battery routing and quality must all pass. Any safety, electrical, insurer or environmental failure stops the affected scope.

The report prioritises UN, Barbados government, regulator, utility and manufacturer evidence; records access dates; keeps data grains separate; labels EVS assumptions; and uses deterministic formulas.

The linked register records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use note. Dynamic APIs and pages should be archived in the diligence data room before investment.

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and a managed Bridgetown–Wildey corridor one-bay pilot. HOLD a greenfield centre, franchise award, second fixed site and all traction-pack opening/removal/custody. Current executable SOM is zero until every gate passes.