Sri Lanka

Authorise a capped LKR4.1m base-case 90-day partner-site operating envelope plus DMT data, counsel and safety commissioning. Release standalone capex only after 160 paid orders, three B2B anchors, 90% promised-function completion, positive base EBITDA and written battery/garage/environment controls.

DMT counted 8,816,613 vehicles at end-2025, including 973,376 motor cars and 458,632 dual-purpose vehicles [dmt_population]. Vehicle imports reopened from 1 February 2025 after restrictions imposed since 2020 [import_reopen]. The 2025 BEV passenger-class flow of 7,256 is therefore a young cohort layered onto an older electric-car base.

DMT electric motor cars, electric dual-purpose vehicles, petrol/electric hybrids and mixed-class EV headlines are different populations. EVS uses 7,256 recent BEVs plus an active-weighted legacy cohort. It does not label the 18,370 petrol/electric registrations as PHEVs or add charging operator claims.

PUCSL reported about 4,349 electric motor cars registered in 2011–2016 [pucsl_legacy]. DMT then recorded 7,239 electric motor cars in 2025, with monthly registrations rising from 1 in January to 1,280 in December [dmt_fuel_2025]. The 2017–2024 passenger-BEV bridge is not publicly separable and remains a diligence gap.

DMT recorded 7,239 electric motor cars out of 68,047 new motor cars in 2025. Adding electric dual-purpose vehicles yields 7,256 BEVs across 74,983 corresponding registrations, or 9.68%. Petrol/electric registrations were 18,370, but the category mixes plug-in and non-plug-in hybrids [dmt_fuel_2025].

The model compounds the non-overlapping 11,605-vehicle gross floor at 25%, 45% and 65% for five years. These are sensitivities—not official forecasts—and omit the unavailable 2017–2024 bridge while retaining legacy registrations before active-status weighting [evs_model].

PUCSL requires CPO exemption and publishes an exempted-station map plus operating codes [pucsl_framework]. chargeNET claims 150+ active stations; Volt reports 100+ public sites including 80+ DC fast chargers [charge_net] [volt_charge]. The claims may overlap, so EVS reports them separately and excludes charger revenue from the pilot.

The 2011–2016 cohort is 9–15 years old by end-2026 and likely generates battery, charging, suspension and parts-obsolescence work—subject to a large active-status discount. The 2025 cohort is warranty-heavy and better suited to inspection, tyres/chassis, charging and evidence work. The 2017–2024 bridge must be purchased or audited.

Launch battery-health/used-EV certificates, paid diagnosis, charging/thermal/HVAC/12V, tyres, alignment, brakes, suspension and fleet collection. No Sri Lanka EV failure-rate or independent-ticket series was found; service incidence and spend are EVS sensitivities.

EVS weights 7,256 recent BEVs at 90% active and 4,349 legacy registrations at 55%, yielding an 8,922 effective active pool. At 75% paid incidence and LKR65,000, TAM is LKR435.0m. Applying 70% independent eligibility gives LKR304.5m; 70% Western Province reach gives LKR213.1m SAM; 15% Year-1 capture gives LKR32.0m SOM [evs_model].

It excludes electric motorcycles, three-wheelers, vans, buses, all non-plug-in hybrids, unknown 2017–2024 passenger BEVs, 2026 additions, public-charging revenue, collision repair, pack replacement and franchise fees. Recent and legacy active weights are visible assumptions, not sourced statistics.

Recent BYD/BAW/Tata owners need warranty-safe independent services; legacy Leaf owners need battery and obsolescence-aware diagnosis. Dealers, financiers, insurers, fleets, bodyshops, recovery operators and charging networks provide repeatable inspection and referral channels.

Prioritise BYD Atto 3/Dolphin/Seal/M6, BAW E7, Tata Tiago/Punch/Nexon/Curvv EV and legacy Nissan Leaf. Add Wuling, GAC AION, Changan-Deepal and Dongfeng only after tool/parts validation. PHEVs require a separate dual-system competence gate [byd_launch] [tata_launch] [baw_launch].

John Keells CG Auto/BYD, DIMO/Tata, Browns/BAW and other authorised dealers hold marque tools, parts and warranties. EVS should compete on multi-brand evidence, transparent scope, collection, fleet SLA, safe triage and legacy support—not implied OEM approval.

Colombo/Dehiwala/Nugegoda/Battaramulla has the strongest owner, distributor, fleet and charging density. Gampaha/Negombo/Katunayake supports logistics and collection. Kandy, Galle/Matara and Kurunegala should begin as referral clinics until VIN density proves fixed capacity.

Imports reopened under Gazette 2421/44, while EV duty depends on motor-power and other classifications [import_reopen] [customs_tariff]. Home chargers, warranties and free initial services are distributor promotions [byd_offer]. No national purchase grant is included in the model.

BOI facilitates investment and cites treaty protections, but EVS found no automatic grant or tax holiday for an EV repair centre [boi]. Equipment and parts remain HS-code sensitive; model tax and customs at full applicable rates until written rulings exist.

The standard VAT rate is 18% from 1 January 2024 [ird_vat]. Confirm entity income tax, VAT registration/recovery, withholding, payroll, customs, royalties, technical fees, transfer pricing and remittance before signing franchise or equipment agreements.

The Labour Department enforces the Factories Ordinance, factory registration, inspection and building-plan approval [labour_safety]. Add task-specific HV competence, supervision, LOTO, test-before-touch, insulated tools/PPE, rescue drills, incident reporting and periodic independent audits.

Confirm ROC/IRD registration, local planning/trade/fire approval, Labour scope, DMT garage registration, CEA EPL/scheduled-waste requirements and insurer conditions before trade. The DMT English garage page is under construction, so written confirmation—not inference—is a launch gate [dmt_garage].

Use role-based authorisation, isolation/LOTO, prove-dead/test-before-touch, live-work prohibition, rescue hook/PPE, battery-temperature and state-of-charge controls, and an independent commissioning audit. Counsel must confirm electrical and workplace requirements for the selected site.

CEA requires applicable licences for scheduled-waste generation, collection, transport, storage, recycling and disposal [cea_waste]. Do not accept wet, crashed, swollen, venting or thermally abnormal packs until outdoor quarantine, licensed transporter/receiver, fire plan, insurer acceptance and incident escalation are documented.

Determine CEA/local-authority classification for refrigerant handling, oils/coolants, wash water, drainage, spill response and chemical storage [cea_epl]. Use trained personnel, recovery equipment and manifests; avoid opening cooling circuits until competence and disposal routes are verified.

Use signed authorisation, estimate, invoice, warranty/limitation terms, battery-state caveats, complaint process, secure VIN/diagnostic records and consent. Never imply OEM approval, guaranteed remaining battery life or a PHEV count unsupported by DMT data [caa].

Use a company-controlled, revocable partner site and counsel-approved trademark, royalty, tax, remittance, disclosure, competition, data, audit and termination structure. No franchise fee, prospectus or sub-franchise before one audited operating year.

Launch battery-health/used-EV certificates, paid diagnosis, charging/thermal/12V/HVAC, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, collection/fleet SLA and safe post-impact triage. Hold pack opening, module/cell repair, unsupported coding, collision structural work and public fast charging.

EVS controls brand, SOPs, training, VIN whitelist, evidence and audits. The local operator controls compliant premises, employment, insurance, permits and waste contracts. Use revocable, non-exclusive, non-sublicensable terms with monthly gate reviews.

The base case is 160 orders × LKR55,000 = LKR8.8m revenue, 50% gross margin and LKR0.3m EBITDA before tax/central allocation; break-even is 150 orders. Low case loses LKR1.56m; high earns LKR6.864m [evs_model].

The largest errors would be counting petrol/electric vehicles as PHEVs, assuming every legacy registration is active, summing charging-network claims, signing fixed premises early, promising OEM software access or accepting damaged packs without a licensed custody chain.

Days 0–30 resolve DMT data, law, partner site and safety design. Days 31–60 commission capability and complete 50 paid orders. Days 61–90 secure three B2B anchors, reach 160 orders and rerun the economics using binding tickets, site costs and tax.

No permanent site without at least 8,500 active relevant vehicles, 160 paid orders, three B2B anchors, 90% promised-function completion, 50% base gross margin, positive two-bay EBITDA and written garage/battery/fire/environment controls. No franchise before one audited year.

Obtain DMT VIN/fuel/model/status/location data for 2017–2026; separate HEV/PHEV; verify warranty, mileage, active status, customer tickets, parts/tool access, insurer appetite, site power, flood/drainage, licensed waste receivers, garage scope, final customs treatment and foreign-investment/franchise structure.

DMT anchors registration and parc; PUCSL anchors charging; Customs, IRD, BOI, Labour, CEA, ROC and CAA anchor regulation. Distributor/operator evidence maps models and infrastructure. EVS assumptions alone drive active weights, forecast, TAM/SAM/SOM, city scores and economics.

No official active VIN-level BEV/PHEV file, 2017–2024 passenger-BEV bridge, model-year/warranty/mileage cube, de-duplicated connector register, failure-rate series, ticket survey, parts/tool matrix, independent-workshop census or licensed battery-receiver capacity table was obtained. Recommendation is share with caveats for a managed validation only.

The source audit records publisher, publication/access dates, definitions and direct links. Recent vs legacy registration cohorts, passenger vs mixed classes, HEV/PHEV uncertainty, charging claims and sourced facts/EVS assumptions are reconciled explicitly.

Approve only the Colombo two-bay validation. Hold permanent premises, pack opening, public fast charging and franchising until every gate passes.