Nepal.

• The addressable passenger-BEV cohort is already material but the latest annual flow cooled. Comparable battery-electric cars, jeeps and vans rose from 236 units in FY2019/20 to 13,578 in FY2024/25, then declined 14.1% to 11,668 in FY2025/26 [kp_2025] [nba_2026].
• EVS estimates an active passenger-BEV service pool of 38,960 vehicles at July 2026. This is 90% of a 43,289 cumulative import floor from FY2019/20–FY2025/26; it is an EVS planning estimate, not an official registration stock [kp_2025] [nba_2026] [evs_model].
• Enter through a three-bay partner site in the Kathmandu Valley, not a standalone national franchise launch. Release NPR28m permanent capex only after the 90-day pilot proves paid demand, multi-brand diagnostic completion, workshop licensing, high-voltage controls and lawful battery hand-off.
• The base case is investable only with fleet anchors. A steady-state centre at 2,010 repair orders and NPR44.22m revenue produces illustrative EBITDA of NPR8.65m and a 3.24-year simple capex payback; the cautious case loses money [evs_model].

Authorise a capped NPR5.5m 90-day managed-site validation in Lalitpur–Tinkune–Balkumari, plus legal, workshop-licence, grid, fire and battery-waste diligence. Hold the NPR28m permanent-centre package, public charging investment and franchise sales until all go/no-go gates pass.

EVs represented 16,701 of 22,907 four-wheel vehicle imports in FY2024/25, or 72.91%, when cars, passenger buses and microbuses were combined [kp_2025]. Nepal had 6,249,732 registered vehicles by mid-March 2026, more than five million of them motorcycles [mof_survey_2026]. These are different denominators and are never combined in the EVS service-pool model.

Passenger BEV flow means customs imports of electric cars, jeeps and vans. All EV imports can also include two-wheelers, three-wheelers, buses and CKD units. Registered vehicle parc is all fuels and classes. PHEV/HEV evidence is not consistently separated in public customs or registration releases; the only cited historical hybrid point is 48 hybrid cars imported in FY2022/23, so hybrids are excluded from hard stock and revenue calculations [fiscal_history_2024].

Comparable imports increased from 236 in FY2019/20, 249 in FY2020/21, 1,807 in FY2021/22, 4,050 in FY2022/23, 11,701 in FY2023/24 and 13,578 in FY2024/25 [kp_2025] [fiscal_2022] [rising_history] [nef_history]. FY2025/26 then fell to 11,668, with the decline concentrated in established power bands while a new customs category added 821 units [nba_2026]. This is a normalization signal, not evidence of fleet contraction.

Department of Customs data reported by Annapurna Express counted 44,534 EV imports in FY2024/25 across electric three-wheelers, motorcycles and scooters, cars, vans, microbuses and buses, valued at NPR43.99bn [all_ev_2025]. The passenger car/jeep/van subset was 13,578 [nba_2026]. EVS uses the subset; broader classes inform later two/three-wheel and commercial service options only.

EVS projects active passenger-BEV stock to 89,151 in the cautious case, 98,609 in the base case and 111,059 in the high case by FY2029/30. The cases apply 5%, 12% and 20% annual growth to the FY2025/26 flow, 96% survival for the July-2026 active stock and 98% survival for subsequent additions. They are planning scenarios, not policy forecasts [evs_model].

NEA-linked reporting cited 62 public-authority stations plus about 800 private stations in September 2025 [charging_rss_2025]. A later October 2025 report cited 1,250 stations, including 63 NEA sites, with about 100 more under construction [charging_1250]. EVS treats 862–1,250 as a dated market range, not an audited connector total. Compatibility is fragmented across GB/T, CCS2 and other interfaces, creating diagnostic and charger-maintenance demand.

Nepal recorded 6,249,732 registered vehicles by mid-March 2026 [mof_survey_2026]. A DoTM-based report put registered four-wheelers at 366,723 by FY2024/25 [dotm_parc]. Separately, transport-industry representatives estimated more than 140,000 public vehicles were over 20 years old [old_vehicles]. The BEV cohort is much younger, so the near-term EVS basket should emphasize tyres, suspension, brakes, thermal systems, charging faults, 12V systems and diagnostics rather than assume widespread traction-battery replacement.

The cumulative passenger-BEV import floor is 43,289. Applying 90% assumed active survival yields 38,960 active vehicles. At 1.10 paid service events and NPR22,000 average revenue per event, national TAM is 42,856 jobs and NPR942.83m. The initial SAM assumes 70% of stock in Kathmandu Valley plus Pokhara and 45% independent reachability, producing 12,272 vehicles, 13,500 jobs and NPR296.99m. The pilot SOM is 2,010 annual jobs, 14.9% of SAM events [evs_model].

Priority segments are taxi and ride-hail fleets using Tata Xpres-T/Tigor derivatives; corporate and government fleets; schools, tourism and intercity electric vans/minibuses; owner-drivers of high-volume BYD, Tata, MG and Dongfeng models; insurers and used-vehicle traders needing battery-health evidence; and charging operators needing connector, earthing and uptime inspection. Retail-only acquisition is too expensive for the first site.

Official-import-data reporting for calendar 2025 identified 11,773 electric cars across more than 50 models. Tata Tigor EV led at 1,146 units, followed by BYD Atto 2 at 1,074 and MG S5 at 1,052; BYD Atto 1, Atto 3, Dolphin and Tata Punch EV also exceeded 500 [models_2025]. Tooling, scan coverage and parts intelligence should be validated on these models before marketing universal capability.

BYD's Gaurighat centre has eight EV-equipped bays within 45,000 sq ft and a spare-parts warehouse [byd_service]. MAW Vriddhi opened a 15,000 sq ft Lalitpur workshop with nine bays and 24 certified technicians in June 2026 [maw_service]. Laxmi's Tinkune new-energy centre has high-voltage testers, battery balancing and six-bay capacity [laxmi_service]. thee GO operates three Valley service centres and a battery research and repair centre [thee_go]. Independent digital aggregators and mobile repair platforms exist, but publicly evidenced multi-brand HV capability remains uneven [eazyfix] [mobile_garage].

Lalitpur/Balkumari–Tinkune is the preferred hub because it sits amid distributor workshops, fleet activity and dense charging. Secondary spokes are Pokhara; Bharatpur–Narayanghat; Butwal–Bhairahawa; Biratnagar–Itahari–Birtamod; Hetauda; and Nepalgunj. These are prioritised from observed dealer, charging and transport corridors, not a statistically published EV-stock map.

The FY2026/27 regime replaced power-based EV excise duty with a flat 20% customs duty and a Clean Infrastructure Investment Fee based on customs value. The clarified bands are 2.5% to NPR2m, 20% from NPR2m–3m, 35% from NPR3m–4m, 90% from NPR4m–5m and 130% above NPR5m; VAT remains 13% and a road-construction levy also applies [mof_budget_2026] [tax_clarification]. The result favours lower-CIF vehicles and can accelerate price-sensitive model churn—useful for service demand but risky for parts breadth.

The Office of Company Registrar sets the incorporation path for private companies and additional documents for foreign shareholders [ocr_registration]. The Department of Industry states a NPR20m minimum foreign-investment threshold for projects [doind_fdi]. The standard VAT framework and tax registration sit with the Inland Revenue Department [ird_portal] [vat_act]. EVS should not underwrite unverified tax holidays; seek a written ruling on workshop, charging, equipment-import and franchise-fee treatment before financial close.

Section 159 of the Motor Vehicles and Transport Management Act requires a Department licence to operate an automobile workshop [transport_act]. Provincial and municipal implementation, building use, fire approval, environmental controls, signage, electricity connection and any charger activity must be mapped to the chosen site. Incorporation alone is not operating permission.

The Labour Act 2017 and Labour Rules 2018 require occupational safety and health controls; the Rules require an OSH policy covering machinery, accidents and sensitive chemicals [labour_act] [labour_osh]. Nepal's general minimum wage became NPR19,550 per month from 17 July 2025 [minimum_wage]. No public evidence was found of a national EV high-voltage technician licence. EVS should therefore impose its own competence tiers, live-dead-live verification, lockout/tagout, insulated tools, arc-rated PPE, rescue plans, battery quarantine and two-person rules.

The Environment Protection Act prohibits harmful pollution and enables standards and controls [environment_act]. The Solid Waste Management Act provides the general waste-management framework [solid_waste_act], but current reporting notes that the existing statutes do not expressly solve EV-battery/e-waste management and official national e-waste data are absent [ewaste_gap]. EVS should initially provide sealed-pack diagnostics and safe isolation only, with written OEM/importer or licensed-handler transfer, serial tracking, fire-separated quarantine and incident notification.

Phase 1: digital inspection, battery state-of-health screening, scan and fault triage, 12V systems, charging-port/on-board-charger diagnosis, brakes, tyres, alignment, suspension, cabin HVAC and thermal loops, underbody inspection, software campaign identification, pre-purchase reports, fleet preventive maintenance, roadside triage and charger inspection. Phase 2 only after gates: coolant circuit repair, module-level non-invasive testing, accident isolation and ADAS calibration partners. Exclude opened-pack repair, cell remanufacture and public DC charging at launch.

Use an EVS-managed local company or joint venture with a three-bay hub, mobile inspection unit and referral spokes. Centralise diagnostic standards, safety audits, training, parts intelligence, warranty evidence and customer records. The first site should be company-managed for at least 12 months. Offer area-development franchises only after two consecutive profitable quarters, replicated audit scores, validated training throughput and a lawful battery return chain.

At steady state, the base case assumes 2,010 annual repair orders, NPR22,000 average revenue, 58% gross margin and NPR17m operating expense. Revenue is NPR44.22m, EBITDA NPR8.65m and simple payback on NPR28m capex is 3.24 years. The cautious case produces negative NPR5.73m EBITDA; permanent capex therefore requires contracted fleet volume and demonstrated retail conversion [evs_model].

The main risks are customs-policy volatility, a young in-warranty fleet, OEM diagnostic lockout, fragmented connector and scan protocols, parts proliferation, HV/fire incidents, unlawful battery storage, technician scarcity, weak independent trust, urban rent and traffic, and currency/import delays. Mitigation is operational: capex staging, fleet LOIs, model whitelists, OEM/referral agreements, zero-live-work rules, insurer alignment, disciplined parts turns and a single auditable waste chain.

Days 1–30 — prove legality and demand. Incorporate/confirm investment path; obtain counsel's licence map; inspect three partner sites; sign provisional battery-transfer and towing agreements; collect 250 anonymised VINs; secure three fleet LOIs; map top-20 model scan coverage.

Proceed only if every red gate is passed. A single unresolved workshop-licence, HV commissioning, fire, battery-transfer or insurance exclusion is a no-go. Commercial misses can trigger one 30-day correction cycle; safety and legal failures cannot.

Research used Nepal government, law, customs-derived reporting, regulated-utility, climate-policy and observed-market sources accessed 10 August 2026. FY refers to Nepal's mid-July fiscal year. Imports are used as the best consistent proxy for passenger-BEV additions because a current national BEV stock table was not located. Facts, calculated values and EVS assumptions are labelled separately. Cumulative import cohorts are not added to all-EV or four-wheel totals. Forecasts are scenario models, not predictions. Currency is nominal NPR; no FX translation is used.

Before investment, obtain DoTM active registration extracts by fuel, class, province and model; confirm scrappage/export status; separate BEV, PHEV and HEV VINs; audit public charger connectors and uptime; secure insurer acceptance of independent battery-health reports; verify dealer warranty boundaries; price three candidate sites; and obtain written opinions on workshop, charger, fire, VAT, foreign-investment, royalty and battery-waste obligations. Until then, share the model with caveats rather than as audited market stock.

Every quantitative fact above resolves to the source registry below; EVS assumptions resolve to the calculation register and snapshot datasets.