Pakistan

Fund paid validation, provincial VIN data, legal/safety design and a revocable partner-bay option. Authorise a permanent hub only after the active-parc, 120-order, 50% margin, technical, safety and B2B gates pass.

NTRC counted 4.690m motor cars and 37.356m total vehicles at 30 June 2024 [ntrc_parc]. Against that base, OCAC estimated only 2,700–3,000 active EVs at November 2025 [ocac_active]. The midpoint implies roughly 0.061% of motor cars and is a planning ratio, not an official registration share.

Government NEV totals often include e-motorcycles and rickshaws; Reuters’ market flow combines BEVs and PHEVs; OCAC reports active EVs without a formal scope; NEECA reports licences rather than sites. The hard model excludes two/three-wheelers, targets, licences and annual flows.

BYD Pakistan estimated about 1,000 BEV+PHEV sales in 2024 and expected a three-to-fourfold 2025 market [reuters_byd25]. OCAC’s later 2,700–3,000 operating estimate is used as a conservative pool. These measures cannot be arithmetically combined.

Reuters reported a 2024 BEV+PHEV market near 1,000 and a 2025 expectation of roughly 3,000–4,000 [reuters_byd25]. Final national BEV/PHEV registration splits were not obtained; PAMA’s all-fuel series is used only for context [pama_sales].

Cautious, base and high cases apply 30%, 50% and 70% annual growth for five years from 2,850. They are planning sensitivities, not official forecasts. The official target is 30% of new sales by 2030, a different measure [pid_launch].

Industry sources place public sites around 30–50 in March 2026; OMCs operated about 15 [tribune_charging] [ocac_active]. NEECA had 72 operator licences and policy aims for 3,000 stations by 2030, but licences and targets are not installed sites [charging_licenses].

BYD deliveries began in March 2025 and multiple 2025–2026 launches are recent [reuters_byd25] [reuters_gac]. No authoritative active BEV/PHEV age, warranty or model-year distribution was found. Do not use the old conventional parc as a proxy for battery-repair demand.

The near-term basket is battery-health evidence, charging faults, thermal/HVAC, tyres, alignment, suspension, brakes, 12V systems, accident/flood triage and fleet uptime. Pakistan-specific EV failure rates were not found; incidence is an EVS assumption.

The 2,850 midpoint × 75% annual paid incidence × PKR50,000 gives PKR106.875m TAM. Applying 75% independent eligibility gives PKR80.156m; 80% Karachi/Lahore/Islamabad reach gives PKR64.125m SAM; 30% Year-1 capture gives PKR19.238m SOM [evs_model].

It excludes motorcycles, rickshaws, buses, non-plug-in hybrids, annual sales from stock, public charging revenue, body repair, pack replacement and franchise fees. Every assumption is visible and replaceable.

Corporate and delivery fleets, used-EV importers/dealers, financiers, insurers, bodyshops and recovery operators reduce retail acquisition cost and turn battery/charging evidence into a repeatable product.

Prioritise BYD Atto 3/Seal/Sealion 6/Shark 6, Deepal L07/S07/S05 and MG4/ZS EV/MG5/HS PHEV, then Kia and GAC. Capability must be proven by VIN and function; BEV, PHEV and REEV work scopes differ [reuters_byd25] [deepal] [mg].

BYD/Mega Motor, Master Changan/Deepal, MG and Lucky Motor have dealer or manufacturing ecosystems. EVS should not mimic OEM warranty work; it should win on independent multi-brand evidence, fleet SLA, collection and safety-governed triage.

Karachi combines the port/import corridor, planned BYD assembly, Lucky Motor manufacturing, corporate fleets and premium demand [reuters_byd24] [reuters_gac]. City scores are EVS assumptions pending provincial registration extracts.

The NEV policy announced PKR15,000/kWh for four-wheelers, PKR65,000 for e-two-wheelers and PKR400,000 for e-three-wheelers; provinces were encouraged to waive registration [pid_subsidies]. Verify vehicle class, cap, budget and application status before promising a benefit.

The NEV policy favours localisation, infrastructure and approved manufacturing [nev_policy]. Routine repair does not automatically qualify. No grant, tax holiday, customs concession or subsidised finance is in the model; seek written BOI/FBR confirmation [boi].

Confirm federal income tax, federal/provincial sales-tax classification, withholding, royalties, transfer pricing, customs, payroll and electronic invoicing under current FBR and provincial law [fbr] [fbr_einvoice]. Do not hard-code an unverified rate into the investment case.

Apply Sindh OSH requirements at the Karachi pilot and add EVS task authorisation, LOTO, test-before-touch, insulated tools/PPE, rescue drills, supervision and medical/emergency controls [sindh_osh].

Complete SECP/FBR registration plus local zoning, occupancy, fire/Civil Defence, labour and environmental approvals before trade. If public/commercial charging is offered, NEECA requires registration and applicable municipal, land, utility, EPA and road-authority NOCs [secp] [neeca_regs].

NAVTTC is the national training authority, but no blanket automotive HV licence was verified [navttc]. Require documented role competence, platform training, isolation/LOTO, rescue capability and an independent commissioning audit.

Design an external, segregated, monitored quarantine zone before accepting wet, damaged or thermally abnormal packs. Obtain SEPA classification, storage, transporter and disposal/recycling approvals in writing; do not assume a complete lithium-battery recovery market [sindh_epa].

Confirm refrigerant work, oils/coolants, wash water, drainage, flood design, spill response and hazardous storage with SEPA and local/fire authorities. Do not import EU or Gulf requirements as Pakistan law.

Use authorisation, estimate, warranty, limitation, battery-state caveats, complaint and secure VIN/diagnostic-record controls. Never imply OEM approval or guaranteed remaining battery life.

Use a company-controlled pilot and counsel-approved trademark, royalty, tax, technology-transfer, disclosure, audit and termination structure. No franchise offer or fee before one audited operating year.

Launch battery-health/used-EV certificates, paid fault isolation, charging/thermal/low-voltage diagnosis, compliant HVAC, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, fleet SLA, collection and safe post-impact triage. Hold module/cell repair and unsupported coding.

EVS controls brand, SOPs, training, VIN whitelist, data and audits. The local operator controls compliant premises, employment, insurance, permits and waste contracts. Terms remain revocable, non-exclusive and non-sublicensable.

The base case is 120 orders × PKR40,000 = PKR4.8m revenue, 50% gross margin and PKR0.2m EBITDA before tax/central allocation; break-even is 110 orders. Low case loses PKR1.02m; high earns PKR4.08m [evs_model].

The largest errors would be treating broad NEV totals as passenger cars, buying a fast charger before utilisation exists, assuming grey-import software/parts access or accepting damaged packs without quarantine.

Days 0–30 resolve active VIN data, law and site design. Days 31–60 run paid multi-platform diagnostics. Days 61–90 reach 120 orders, secure two B2B anchors and refresh economics with binding quotes.

No permanent hub without reconciled provincial active stock, 120 paid jobs, two B2B anchors, 90% promised-function success, 50% base margin, positive EBITDA and written HV/fire/quarantine/waste controls. No franchise before one audited year.

Buy Sindh/Punjab/ICT model-fuel-age data; separate BEV/PHEV/REEV; validate warranty, ticket, cycle, parts lead time, tool coverage, waste chain, site power, insurer appetite, tax and foreign-investment/franchise treatment.

NTRC anchors the all-fuel parc; Reuters and OCAC anchor plug-in flow and the provisional active pool; MoI&P/PID/NEECA anchor policy and charging; SECP/FBR/Sindh sources anchor regulation. EVS assumptions drive scenarios, TAM/SAM/SOM, scores and economics only.

No official national active BEV/PHEV stock split, provincial model-age extract, final 2025 plug-in registrations, verified public connector register, EV failure-rate series, price survey or independent-workshop capacity series was obtained. The 2,850 midpoint is provisional.

The source audit records publisher, publication/access dates, definitions and direct links. Industry estimates, policy targets, licences and EVS assumptions are explicitly labelled.

Approve the Karachi validation programme only. Do not approve permanent premises, public fast charging, pack opening or franchising until every gate passes.