Bangladesh.

• The decision denominator is only 241 registered four-wheel EVs at end-2025. The wider 515 total includes 273 motorcycles and one auto-rickshaw, which EVS excludes [newage_stock].
• Permanent premises are not justified. Approve a 90-day, one-bay validation in Tejgaon/Gulshan with no public-charging capex, pack opening or franchise offer.
• Policy is improving but demand evidence remains thin. FY2026-27 tax reductions and a 1,200-station 2030 target could accelerate adoption, but neither is installed stock or workshop revenue [budget_bss] [charging_project].

Authorise a capped BDT240,000 base-case partner-bay cost envelope plus registration-data purchase, counsel and safety commissioning. Release standalone capex only after every denominator, demand, capability, economics and battery-custody gate passes.

BRTA-derived reporting counted 6.54m registered vehicles in October 2025, including 2.32m in Dhaka [parc_total]. The later EV breakdown reports 515 registrations across 2021–2025, of which only 241 are four-wheel classes relevant to this service-centre case [newage_stock].

The 515 total mixes motorcycles, an auto-rickshaw and four-wheel vehicles. The model includes only 160 hard jeeps, 77 cars, three microbuses and one delivery van. BRTA reporting does not provide a clean BEV/PHEV split or active-status field, so 241 is a registration ceiling, not a confirmed active parc.

Annual all-class EV registrations rose from 5 in 2021 to 267 in 2024, then declined to 174 in 2025 [newage_stock]. This is flow across mixed vehicle classes; it does not prove four-wheel service demand.

The BRTA-derived annual series does not separate motorcycles, cars, BEVs and PHEVs. All-vehicle registrations were below 308,000 in 2024, down 14.7% year on year [vehicle_flow]. EVS therefore forecasts the four-wheel pool from its stock anchor and labels all growth rates as assumptions.

Applying 25%, 50% and 75% annual growth for five years to 241 gives the cautious, base and high cases. They are sensitivities—not official forecasts—and the high case depends on sustained tax relief, model availability, foreign exchange and charging execution [budget_bss].

Ekhon Charge reports 3+ sites across 3+ districts; its Cumilla site is a 180kW second fast location after Tejgaon [ekhon] [ekhon_cumilla]. The government programme targets 1,200 commercial stations by 2030, but planned chargers and targets are not installed sites [charging_project].

The first EV was registered in October 2021 and the entire 241-vehicle pool sits inside a registration regime younger than five years [bonik_stock]. No model-year, active, warranty, mileage or scrappage distribution was obtained; conventional-parc age must not proxy battery-repair demand.

The investable basket is battery-health evidence, paid diagnosis, charging/thermal/HVAC, 12V, tyres, alignment, brakes, suspension, flood/impact triage and collection. No Bangladesh EV failure-rate series was found; the 70% event incidence is an EVS sensitivity.

241 registrations × 70% annual paid incidence × BDT35,000 yields BDT5.904m TAM. Applying 70% independent eligibility gives BDT4.133m; 80% Dhaka reach gives BDT3.307m SAM; 50% Year-1 niche capture gives BDT1.653m SOM [evs_model].

It excludes motorcycles, rickshaws, buses, non-plug-in hybrids, annual registrations added to stock, public charging revenue, collision repair, pack replacement and franchise fees. Active status, PHEV mix and Dhaka concentration remain diligence items.

Premium owners are visible, but importers, used-car dealers, financiers, insurers, corporate/diplomatic fleets, bodyshops and recovery operators offer repeatable inspection and referral demand.

Prioritise BYD Atto 3, Seal and Sealion 6 PHEV plus AION Y/V. Add Tesla, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Audi only where VIN-level tools, parts, warranty and liability boundaries pass [byd] [aion] [daily_models].

BYD/CG Runner, GAC AION/DHS Motors and premium dealers hold the strongest marque-specific advantage. EVS should compete on independent multi-brand evidence, collection, fleet SLA and safety-governed triage—not implied OEM approval.

Tejgaon/Gulshan/Vatara combines premium owners, BYD outlets, early charging and fleet access. Uttara is a collection/inspection spoke. Chattogram, Gazipur and Cumilla require verified local plug-in VIN counts before equipment or premises.

Official budget reporting cites lower total tax incidence for lower-value BEVs/PHEVs, power-banded registration advance income tax and zero tax on chargers [budget_bss] [budget_star]. Confirm final tariff code, value and model eligibility before promising savings.

SRO 163/2026 and BIDA automobile measures are manufacturing-led and conditional [nbr_sro] [bida_auto]. No grant, tax holiday, capital-machinery concession or subsidised finance is included in the service pilot.

Confirm income tax, BIN/VAT or turnover-tax status, withholding, customs, payroll, royalties, franchise/technical fees, transfer pricing and remittance under current NBR/BIDA rules [nbr_vat] [bida_faq]. Do not hard-code the generic VAT guide into the investment case.

Apply the Labour Act/Rules and DIFE licensing/inspection requirements as applicable, then add EVS task authorisation, LOTO, test-before-touch, insulated tools/PPE, rescue drills and supervision [dife] [dife_rules].

Complete RJSC registration, local trade/premises approvals, DIFE scope, fire licence/safety plan and Department of Environment classification before trade [rjsc] [fire] [doe_rules]. Public charging requires a separate SREDA, utility, fire and local-authority case [sreda_rules].

Use role-based competence, written switching plans, isolation/LOTO, test-before-touch, rescue equipment, live-work prohibition and an independent commissioning audit. Legal counsel must verify whether any site/activity-specific electrical certification applies.

The national project describes a planned Gazipur recycling plant, not a proven current recovery chain [charging_project]. Do not accept wet, crashed, swollen or thermally abnormal packs until DoE/fire classification, outdoor quarantine, transporter and downstream receiver are documented.

Confirm refrigerant competence, oils/coolants, wash water, drainage, flood level, spill response and hazardous storage with DIFE, DoE, fire and local authorities. Do not import another jurisdiction’s rules into Bangladesh.

Use signed authorisation, estimate, invoice, warranty/limitation terms, battery-state caveats, complaint process, secure VIN/diagnostic records and consent. Never imply OEM approval or guaranteed remaining battery life.

Use a company-controlled, revocable partner bay and counsel-approved trademark, royalty, tax, remittance, disclosure, competition, data, audit and termination structure. No franchise fee or offer before one audited operating year.

Launch battery-health/used-EV certificates, fault isolation, charging/thermal/12V/HVAC diagnosis, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, collection/fleet SLA and safe post-impact triage. Hold pack opening, module/cell repair, unsupported coding and public fast charging.

EVS controls brand, SOPs, training, VIN whitelist, evidence and audits. The local operator controls compliant premises, employment, insurance, permits and waste contracts. The relationship is revocable, non-exclusive and non-sublicensable.

The base case is 25 orders × BDT20,000 = BDT500,000 revenue, 50% gross margin and BDT10,000 EBITDA before tax/central allocation; break-even is 24 orders. Low case loses BDT142,400; high earns BDT482,000 [evs_model].

The largest errors would be treating 515 mixed-class registrations as cars, assuming every registration is active, signing fixed premises, promising grey-import software access or accepting damaged packs without a written custody chain.

Days 0–30 resolve VIN data, law, partner terms and safety design. Days 31–60 commission capability and deliver 10 paid jobs. Days 61–90 reach 25 jobs, secure two B2B anchors and rerun the economics using actual tickets and binding costs.

No permanent site without at least 225 active relevant vehicles, 25 paid jobs, two B2B anchors, 90% promised-function success, 50% base gross margin, positive partner-bay EBITDA and written battery/fire/environment controls. No franchise before one audited year.

Obtain BRTA VIN/fuel/model/status/location data; separate BEV/PHEV; validate warranty, model age, ticket, cycle time, parts lead time, tool access, insurer appetite, site power, flood risk, waste receivers, final FY2026-27 customs treatment and foreign-investment/franchise structure.

BRTA-derived reporting anchors registrations and parc; SREDA, NBR, BIDA, DIFE, fire and DoE sources anchor policy and regulation; operator and distributor evidence maps infrastructure/models. EVS assumptions drive scenarios, TAM/SAM/SOM, scores and economics only.

No official downloadable VIN-level active BEV/PHEV file, model-year/warranty split, national connector register, EV failure-rate series, service price survey, parts/tool matrix or independent-workshop census was obtained. The 241 denominator is a registered-class ceiling and makes the recommendation share with caveats for a partner-bay pilot only.

The source audit records publisher, publication/access dates, definitions and direct links. Earlier/later registration snapshots, installed/target charging measures and sourced facts/EVS assumptions are reconciled explicitly.

Approve only the Dhaka validation pilot. Hold permanent premises, public fast charging, pack opening and franchising until every gate passes.