Tunisia
EVS Tunisia EV Service Centre Market Entry
Decision-grade Tunisia assessment separating BEV registrations, live-stock observations, conventional hybrids, charging sites and targets, with an auditable Greater Tunis partner-pilot model.
ANME-reported BEVs in circulation at end-April 2025.
Reported stations; not audited connector/uptime census.
Modelled Greater Tunis independent-reach jobs/year; not booked demand.
Base simple payback on TND30,000 reversible capex; pre-tax, pre-finance.
The verdict in full
- Conditional go only for a reversible Greater Tunis partner pilot after an ATTT registry extract. ANME reported 570 electric cars in circulation at end-April 2025, while the ATTT-derived table reports 539 BEV registrations during calendar 2025. The figures have different grains and are not added. [anme_stock_2025] [attt_2025]
- Hybrids are excluded. The 2025 table reports 2,824 hybrids but does not separate PHEVs from non-plug-in HEVs.
- The model yields 650 national TAM and 215 Greater Tunis SAM jobs annually. Every activity, geography, frequency and price input is explicit EVS assumption.
- No standalone centre, exclusive franchise or traction-pack work. ANGED reported no current battery-waste treatment solution. [battery_gap]
Board Decision
Authorise diligence and up to TND30,000 reversible partner-bay capex only after all gates. Base steady-state economics are 180 jobs, TND63,000 revenue, TND11,060 EBITDA and 2.71-year simple payback; all are EVS assumptions.
Decision Summary
| Dimension | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Market entry | CONDITIONAL GO — Greater Tunis partner pilot | 2025 BEV registrations accelerated, but the live stock is still tiny and PHEV stock is not separable. |
| Standalone centre / franchise | NO-GO now | Modelled demand cannot support a dedicated centre or exclusive territory. |
| Traction-battery work | HOLD | No removal, opening, module/cell work or storage while Tunisia lacks a verified treatment route. |
- Decision
- CONDITIONAL GO — Greater Tunis partner pilot
- Reason
- 2025 BEV registrations accelerated, but the live stock is still tiny and PHEV stock is not separable.
- Decision
- NO-GO now
- Reason
- Modelled demand cannot support a dedicated centre or exclusive territory.
- Decision
- HOLD
- Reason
- No removal, opening, module/cell work or storage while Tunisia lacks a verified treatment route.
Market size
The authorised 2025 light-vehicle market was 63,902 registrations; a broader market figure was 93,095 including parallel imports. Neither is an EV denominator. The service model anchors to 570 BEVs in circulation at end-April 2025. [attt_2025] [market_2025] [anme_stock_2025]
Tunisia BEV stock and registration observations
Stocks and annual flows remain distinct.
Market KPIs
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Authorised-market light-vehicle registrations | 63,902 | vehicles | 2025 | VP, VU and mixed [attt_2025]. |
| All-market registrations | 93,095 | vehicles | 2025 | Includes 29,192 parallel-market registrations [market_2025]. |
| BEV registrations | 539 | vehicles | 2025 flow | Pure electric registration category [attt_2025] [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BEVs in circulation | 570 | vehicles | End-April 2025 | ANME live-stock observation [anme_stock_2025]. |
| Reported public charging network | 180 | stations | June 2025 claim | Official interview; not audited census [charging_180]. |
- Value
- 63,902
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2025
- Evidence
- VP, VU and mixed [attt_2025].
- Value
- 93,095
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2025
- Evidence
- Includes 29,192 parallel-market registrations [market_2025].
- Value
- 539
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2025 flow
- Evidence
- Pure electric registration category [attt_2025] [ev_brands_2025].
- Value
- 570
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- End-April 2025
- Evidence
- ANME live-stock observation [anme_stock_2025].
- Value
- 180
- Unit
- stations
- Period
- June 2025 claim
- Evidence
- Official interview; not audited census [charging_180].
Definition-sensitive Tunisia BEV observations
| Period | BEV | PHEV (unavailable) | BEV used in model | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| End-2024 stock | 260 | — | 260 | ANME registered BEVs [anme_stock_2024]. |
| End-April 2025 stock | 570 | — | 570 | ANME vehicles in circulation [anme_stock_2025]. |
| 2024 registration flow | 226 | — | 226 | BEV annual registrations; hybrid 2,897 kept separate [attt_2025]. |
| 2025 registration flow | 539 | — | 539 | BEV annual registrations; hybrid 2,824 kept separate [attt_2025]. |
- BEV
- 260
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 260
- Scope
- ANME registered BEVs [anme_stock_2024].
- BEV
- 570
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 570
- Scope
- ANME vehicles in circulation [anme_stock_2025].
- BEV
- 226
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 226
- Scope
- BEV annual registrations; hybrid 2,897 kept separate [attt_2025].
- BEV
- 539
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 539
- Scope
- BEV annual registrations; hybrid 2,824 kept separate [attt_2025].
Definition reconciliation
BEV stock, annual BEV registrations, undifferentiated hybrids, authorised-market registrations, parallel-market vehicles, charging sites and policy targets are not interchangeable. The report never adds across these grains.
Definition reconciliation
| Term | Included | Use |
|---|---|---|
| BEV stock | Electric cars in circulation/registered | 570 end-April 2025 anchor; 260 end-2024 comparator. |
| BEV registration flow | Battery-electric first registrations during calendar year | 539 in 2025; never added to April stock. |
| Hybrid registrations | Public table does not separate PHEV from HEV | Excluded from plug-in sizing and forecast. |
| All-market registrations | Authorised plus parallel/import channels | 93,095 conventional market context only. |
| Charging station | Reported sites/stations, not connector count | 180 as a planning observation, not audited national census. |
| Policy target | 50,000 by 2030 or 125,000 by 2035 | Government ambition only; never used as EVS forecast. |
- Included
- Electric cars in circulation/registered
- Use
- 570 end-April 2025 anchor; 260 end-2024 comparator.
- Included
- Battery-electric first registrations during calendar year
- Use
- 539 in 2025; never added to April stock.
- Included
- Public table does not separate PHEV from HEV
- Use
- Excluded from plug-in sizing and forecast.
- Included
- Authorised plus parallel/import channels
- Use
- 93,095 conventional market context only.
- Included
- Reported sites/stations, not connector count
- Use
- 180 as a planning observation, not audited national census.
- Included
- 50,000 by 2030 or 125,000 by 2035
- Use
- Government ambition only; never used as EVS forecast.
Forecast scenarios
EVS applies 20%, 45% and 70% annual growth for five years to the 570 live-stock observation. These are capacity-planning cases, not the government 2030/2035 targets.
EVS BEV planning scenarios to 2030
20% / 45% / 70% CAGR from 570; not official forecasts.
Five-year BEV planning scenarios
| Scenario | Annual Growth Pct | Planning stock end-2030 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 20 | 1,418 | Slower availability and affordability; EVS planning case. |
| Base | 45 | 3,654 | 2025 registrations convert to a gradually serviceable cohort. |
| High | 70 | 8,093 | Rapid model/price expansion; capacity stress test only. |
- Annual Growth Pct
- 20
- Planning stock end-2030
- 1,418
- Interpretation
- Slower availability and affordability; EVS planning case.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 45
- Planning stock end-2030
- 3,654
- Interpretation
- 2025 registrations convert to a gradually serviceable cohort.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 70
- Planning stock end-2030
- 8,093
- Interpretation
- Rapid model/price expansion; capacity stress test only.
Charging infrastructure
A June 2025 official interview reported 180 stations, while an earlier programme targeted 160 points by 2025. The report records both and treats neither as an audited connector/uptime census. [charging_180] [charging_160]
Charging network observations and targets
Installed claims, deployment plans and policy targets have different grains.
Charging evidence and unknowns
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported installed stations | 180 | sites/stations | June 2025 | Official interview; no connector/power/uptime audit [charging_180]. |
| Earlier deployment target | 160 | points | By 2025 | Plan, not independently verified delivery [charging_160]. |
| 2030 policy target | 5,000 | stations | 2030 | Policy target, not forecast [targets_2030]. |
| 2035 policy target | 12,000 | public stations | 2035 | Policy target, not forecast [targets_2035]. |
- Value
- 180
- Unit
- sites/stations
- Period
- June 2025
- Status
- Official interview; no connector/power/uptime audit [charging_180].
- Value
- 160
- Unit
- points
- Period
- By 2025
- Status
- Plan, not independently verified delivery [charging_160].
- Value
- 5,000
- Unit
- stations
- Period
- 2030
- Status
- Policy target, not forecast [targets_2030].
- Value
- 12,000
- Unit
- public stations
- Period
- 2035
- Status
- Policy target, not forecast [targets_2035].
Vehicle parc age and service demand
More than half of the wider parc was described as older than 15 years, but Tunisia’s BEV cohort is young. Launch should combine EV condition evidence and chassis work—not assume near-term traction-pack repair volume. [parc_age] [ev_brands_2025]
Vehicle parc and service demand
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle parc older than 15 years | 50 | percent-plus | Strong chassis/tyre/brake culture, but statement is industry-sourced [parc_age]. |
| Parallel-market registrations | 29,192 | vehicles | Imported/unsupported VINs and parts fragmentation [market_2025]. |
| 2025 BEV registrations | 539 | vehicles | New service cohort will initially remain warranty-led [attt_2025]. |
| Dealers offering EVs | 9 | dealers | OEM capability is concentrated; verify current network [anme_stock_2025]. |
- Value
- 50
- Unit
- percent-plus
- Implication
- Strong chassis/tyre/brake culture, but statement is industry-sourced [parc_age].
- Value
- 29,192
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- Imported/unsupported VINs and parts fragmentation [market_2025].
- Value
- 539
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- New service cohort will initially remain warranty-led [attt_2025].
- Value
- 9
- Unit
- dealers
- Implication
- OEM capability is concentrated; verify current network [anme_stock_2025].
Transparent TAM / SAM / SOM
The sourced 570-BEV anchor is separated from EVS activity, geography, reach, frequency and price assumptions. Executable SOM is zero before hard gates.
Tunisia TAM / Greater Tunis SAM
ANME stock anchor plus explicit EVS assumptions.
Sizing assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Unit | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| BEV stock anchor | 570 | vehicles | ANME end-April 2025 in-circulation observation. |
| Active/available factor | 0.95 | share | EVS planning haircut for off-road, collision, disposal or unavailable vehicles. |
| Annual service events | 1.2 | jobs/active BEV | EVS blended diagnostic, charging, thermal and chassis assumption. |
| Average repair order | 350 | TND/job | EVS planning assumption; replace with 50 local paid quotes. |
| Greater Tunis concentration | 0.55 | share | EVS assumption pending ATTT governorate/VIN extract. |
| Independent reach | 0.6 | share | EVS assumption reflecting unsupported imports and out-of-warranty opportunity. |
| Executable SOM before gates | 0 | vehicles | Deliberately zero until hard gates clear. |
- Value
- 570
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- ANME end-April 2025 in-circulation observation.
- Value
- 0.95
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS planning haircut for off-road, collision, disposal or unavailable vehicles.
- Value
- 1.2
- Unit
- jobs/active BEV
- Basis
- EVS blended diagnostic, charging, thermal and chassis assumption.
- Value
- 350
- Unit
- TND/job
- Basis
- EVS planning assumption; replace with 50 local paid quotes.
- Value
- 0.55
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS assumption pending ATTT governorate/VIN extract.
- Value
- 0.6
- Unit
- share
- Basis
- EVS assumption reflecting unsupported imports and out-of-warranty opportunity.
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- Deliberately zero until hard gates clear.
TAM / SAM / SOM
| Layer | Vehicles | Jobs Per Year | Revenue ALL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | 542 | 650 | 227,500 | Active BEV pool nationally; PHEV/HEV excluded. |
| Greater Tunis core | 298 | 358 | 125,300 | EVS 55% location assumption. |
| SAM | 179 | 215 | 75,250 | Greater Tunis core × 60% independent reach. |
- Vehicles
- 542
- Jobs Per Year
- 650
- Revenue ALL
- 227,500
- Status
- Active BEV pool nationally; PHEV/HEV excluded.
- Vehicles
- 298
- Jobs Per Year
- 358
- Revenue ALL
- 125,300
- Status
- EVS 55% location assumption.
- Vehicles
- 179
- Jobs Per Year
- 215
- Revenue ALL
- 75,250
- Status
- Greater Tunis core × 60% independent reach.
Customers and fleets
Prioritise parallel-import BEV owners, controlled second-opinion services, corporate/rental fleets and dealer overflow. Treat PHEVs separately until the registry identifies them.
Customer segments
| Segment | Need | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| New BYD/Volvo/premium BEV owners | Second-opinion evidence, tyres, brakes and charging triage | Referral-safe, non-warranty scope only. |
| Parallel-import BEV owners | VIN identification, pre-purchase evidence, parts and compatibility triage | Highest independent opportunity after whitelist. |
| Out-of-warranty BEVs | Transparent scan and non-secure mechanical service | Emerging; cohort is still young. |
| PHEV owners | Separate ICE, HV and charging workflows | Excluded from sizing until registry split. |
- Need
- Second-opinion evidence, tyres, brakes and charging triage
- Priority
- Referral-safe, non-warranty scope only.
- Need
- VIN identification, pre-purchase evidence, parts and compatibility triage
- Priority
- Highest independent opportunity after whitelist.
- Need
- Transparent scan and non-secure mechanical service
- Priority
- Emerging; cohort is still young.
- Need
- Separate ICE, HV and charging workflows
- Priority
- Excluded from sizing until registry split.
Fleet segments
| Segment | Entry Product | Evidence Gate |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate/utility fleets | Monthly inspection and charging-uptime report | Paid trial and named supported VINs. |
| Rental and tourism fleets | Turnaround inspection and incident triage | One paid fleet SLA. |
| Taxi/ride-hail | Tyre/brake/12V and charging triage | Vehicle list and deposit-backed pilot. |
| Dealers/importers | Pre-delivery and overflow evidence services | Written non-warranty task authorisation. |
- Entry Product
- Monthly inspection and charging-uptime report
- Evidence Gate
- Paid trial and named supported VINs.
- Entry Product
- Turnaround inspection and incident triage
- Evidence Gate
- One paid fleet SLA.
- Entry Product
- Tyre/brake/12V and charging triage
- Evidence Gate
- Vehicle list and deposit-backed pilot.
- Entry Product
- Pre-delivery and overflow evidence services
- Evidence Gate
- Written non-warranty task authorisation.
Brands and models
BYD led 2025 BEV registrations with 178 units, followed by Volvo and Porsche. The top models were BYD Atto 3, Volvo EX30 and Porsche Macan Electric. [ev_brands_2025]
Priority brands — no audited market shares located
| Technology | Brand | Units | Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEV | BYD | 178 | 33.02 | 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BEV | Volvo | 95 | 17.63 | 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BEV | Porsche | 70 | 12.99 | 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BEV | BMW | 30 | 5.57 | 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BEV | Audi | 29 | 5.38 | 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BEV | MG / Dongfeng / Geely / Kia / Cenntro | 106 | 19.67 | Top-10 balance [ev_brands_2025]. |
- Brand
- BYD
- Units
- 178
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- 33.02
- Source
- 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025].
- Brand
- Volvo
- Units
- 95
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- 17.63
- Source
- 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025].
- Brand
- Porsche
- Units
- 70
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- 12.99
- Source
- 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025].
- Brand
- BMW
- Units
- 30
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- 5.57
- Source
- 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025].
- Brand
- Audi
- Units
- 29
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- 5.38
- Source
- 2025 registrations [ev_brands_2025].
- Brand
- MG / Dongfeng / Geely / Kia / Cenntro
- Units
- 106
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- 19.67
- Source
- Top-10 balance [ev_brands_2025].
Priority models
| Brand | Model | Powertrain | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD | Atto 3 | BEV | 87 registrations in 2025; official local product/warranty [ev_brands_2025] [byd_atto3]. |
| Volvo | EX30 | BEV | 87 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025]. |
| Porsche | Macan Electric | BEV | 61 registrations in 2025; premium/warranty-led [ev_brands_2025]. |
| BYD | Tang EV / Dolphin | BEV | 43 and 38 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025]. |
| MG | MG4 | BEV | 26 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025]. |
| Dongfeng | Box | BEV | 23 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025]. |
- Model
- Atto 3
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- 87 registrations in 2025; official local product/warranty [ev_brands_2025] [byd_atto3].
- Model
- EX30
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- 87 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025].
- Model
- Macan Electric
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- 61 registrations in 2025; premium/warranty-led [ev_brands_2025].
- Model
- Tang EV / Dolphin
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- 43 and 38 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025].
- Model
- MG4
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- 26 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025].
- Model
- Box
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- 23 registrations in 2025 [ev_brands_2025].
Competitive landscape
Authorised dealers control warranty, secure software, battery tools and parts. EVS should compete on non-warranty multi-brand evidence, supported mechanical scope and fleet uptime.
Competitor map
| Competitor | Type | Footprint | Threat | Response |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYD Tunisia network | Authorised OEM/importer service | Greater Tunis with regional agencies | Warranty, genuine parts, battery tools and customer base | Non-warranty evidence, overflow and referral only [byd_tn]. |
| Volvo/Porsche/BMW/Audi networks | Authorised premium service | Greater Tunis-led | High-value 2025 cohort and secure diagnostics | Do not compete on warranty or software; offer controlled chassis/condition scope. |
- Type
- Authorised OEM/importer service
- Footprint
- Greater Tunis with regional agencies
- Threat
- Warranty, genuine parts, battery tools and customer base
- Response
- Non-warranty evidence, overflow and referral only [byd_tn].
- Type
- Authorised premium service
- Footprint
- Greater Tunis-led
- Threat
- High-value 2025 cohort and secure diagnostics
- Response
- Do not compete on warranty or software; offer controlled chassis/condition scope.
Priority geography
Greater Tunis is the only fixed-bay pilot candidate. Sousse/Monastir and Sfax begin as collection routes until ATTT geography and paid demand support local bays.
Priority regions
| Rank | Region | Rationale | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greater Tunis: Tunis / Ariana / Ben Arous | Largest dealer, corporate, affluent and charging concentration; exact BEV share requires ATTT extract. | One partner bay. |
- Region
- Greater Tunis: Tunis / Ariana / Ben Arous
- Rationale
- Largest dealer, corporate, affluent and charging concentration; exact BEV share requires ATTT extract.
- Mode
- One partner bay.
Consumer and business incentives
Reported EV measures include zero customs duty, 7% VAT and 50% cuts to registration and vignette charges. Classification and current-law confirmation are mandatory; no incentive is included in workshop economics. [ev_fiscal_2024]
Consumer incentives
| Instrument | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| EV customs duty | ANME relay reports reduction from 30% to 0% | Obtain current HS/classification ruling before pricing [ev_fiscal_2024]. |
| EV VAT | ANME relay reports reduction from 19% to 7% | Verify current vehicle and parts/service treatment [ev_fiscal_2024]. |
- Status
- ANME relay reports reduction from 30% to 0%
- Implication
- Obtain current HS/classification ruling before pricing [ev_fiscal_2024].
- Status
- ANME relay reports reduction from 19% to 7%
- Implication
- Verify current vehicle and parts/service treatment [ev_fiscal_2024].
Business incentives
| Instrument | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| New-enterprise income-tax exemption | Conditional four-year measure for qualifying 2024/2025 declarations | Confirm activity, declaration date, start deadline and 2026 continuation before modelling [unctad_tax_2025] [finance_2026]. |
| R&D/innovation deductions | Conditional/capped | Only eligible documented agreements and expenditure [unctad_tax_2025]. |
- Status
- Conditional four-year measure for qualifying 2024/2025 declarations
- Action
- Confirm activity, declaration date, start deadline and 2026 continuation before modelling [unctad_tax_2025] [finance_2026].
- Status
- Conditional/capped
- Action
- Only eligible documented agreements and expenditure [unctad_tax_2025].
Tax and investment
Planning values exclude VAT and tax. Written Tunisian advice must cover entity/activity classification, CIT, VAT, payroll/CNSS, customs, licence fees and any incentive eligibility.
Tax and customs baseline
| Tax | Rate | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Corporate income tax | 20% standard reported from 2025 | Confirm current entity/activity rate, exemptions, solidarity contribution and deductibility [unctad_tax_2025] [finance_ministry]. |
| VAT on workshop services/parts | Current general and activity-specific rates | Model excludes VAT; obtain written advice [finance_ministry]. |
- Rate
- 20% standard reported from 2025
- Treatment
- Confirm current entity/activity rate, exemptions, solidarity contribution and deductibility [unctad_tax_2025] [finance_ministry].
- Rate
- Current general and activity-specific rates
- Treatment
- Model excludes VAT; obtain written advice [finance_ministry].
Licensing, labour and premises
Use the Market Access Portal and competent authorities to confirm the exact activity specification. No generic garage licence or electrician status is presumed sufficient.
Licensing path
| Gate | Authority | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Entity/activity registration | RNE / tax / CNSS | Entity extract, beneficial owner, activity code, tax and social-security registration [rne] [cnss]. |
| Activity authorisation/specification | Market Access Portal / competent ministry | Written result for motor-vehicle maintenance and any electrical/charging activity [market_access]. |
- Authority
- RNE / tax / CNSS
- Evidence
- Entity extract, beneficial owner, activity code, tax and social-security registration [rne] [cnss].
- Authority
- Market Access Portal / competent ministry
- Evidence
- Written result for motor-vehicle maintenance and any electrical/charging activity [market_access].
Labour and safety obligations
| Requirement | Owner | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Employment and payroll | HR/legal | Contracts, working time, leave, payroll, CNSS and records [ilo_labour] [cnss]. |
| OSH risk assessment | Workshop manager | HV, lifting, fire, chemical, tyre, charging and lone-work controls [min_social] [ilo_osh]. |
- Owner
- HR/legal
- Control
- Contracts, working time, leave, payroll, CNSS and records [ilo_labour] [cnss].
- Owner
- Workshop manager
- Control
- HV, lifting, fire, chemical, tyre, charging and lone-work controls [min_social] [ilo_osh].
High-voltage safety
HV authority is task-specific. Launch requires a supported VIN/task matrix, assessed staff, verified absence of voltage, controlled work zones, drills and auditable release evidence.
High-voltage controls
| Control | Required Evidence |
|---|---|
| VIN/powertrain whitelist | BEV, PHEV and HEV identified before booking; supported task matrix. |
| Competence authorisation | Named technician, training, assessment, expiry and supervision record. |
| Safe de-energisation | OEM procedure, verify absence of voltage, lock/tag, controlled key and tested instrument. |
| Controlled work zone | Barriers, signage, insulated tools/PPE, rescue hook and no lone HV work. |
| Charging safety | Connector/EVSE inspection and Tunisian electrical compliance [iec_61851] [iso_17409]. |
| Release evidence | DTC pre/post scan, isolation restoration, torque/QC and written limitations. |
- Required Evidence
- BEV, PHEV and HEV identified before booking; supported task matrix.
- Required Evidence
- Named technician, training, assessment, expiry and supervision record.
- Required Evidence
- OEM procedure, verify absence of voltage, lock/tag, controlled key and tested instrument.
- Required Evidence
- Barriers, signage, insulated tools/PPE, rescue hook and no lone HV work.
- Required Evidence
- Connector/EVSE inspection and Tunisian electrical compliance [iec_61851] [iso_17409].
- Required Evidence
- DTC pre/post scan, isolation restoration, torque/QC and written limitations.
Battery, waste and dangerous goods
Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, removal, storage and damaged-pack custody. This is a hard constraint while no verified Tunisian treatment route exists. [battery_gap]
Battery and waste routes
| Stage | Rule | Route |
|---|---|---|
| Intact in-vehicle pack | Non-invasive diagnostics only at launch | No opening, removal or storage. |
| Suspect/damaged pack arrival | Refuse indoor custody | Call emergency/OEM/insurer; use only an approved external isolation plan. |
- Rule
- Non-invasive diagnostics only at launch
- Route
- No opening, removal or storage.
- Rule
- Refuse indoor custody
- Route
- Call emergency/OEM/insurer; use only an approved external isolation plan.
Recommended service portfolio
Lead with condition reports, non-invasive scans, charging/12V triage, tyres, brakes, suspension and fleet inspections. Market only supported VIN/task combinations.
Recommended service portfolio
| Phase | Service | Include | Exclude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | VIN-classified diagnostic scan | DTC/live data/12V/charging evidence report | Unsupported coding, security, immobiliser or warranty claims. |
| Launch | Pre-purchase EV condition report | Visual, scan, charge, 12V, tyres/brakes/chassis and thermal observations | Guaranteed battery capacity or life. |
| Launch | Charging and low-voltage triage | Cable/inlet/EVSE/12V checks within supported procedures | Grid-side work without authorised electrician. |
| Launch | Tyres, brakes, suspension and alignment | EV load/torque procedures and evidence | Unsupported ADAS calibration. |
| Fleet | Uptime inspection and monthly report | Corporate, rental, taxi and dealer overflow | OEM HV warranty work. |
| Hold | Pack removal/module work | None at launch | Opening, storage, transport or damaged-pack custody. |
- Service
- VIN-classified diagnostic scan
- Include
- DTC/live data/12V/charging evidence report
- Exclude
- Unsupported coding, security, immobiliser or warranty claims.
- Service
- Pre-purchase EV condition report
- Include
- Visual, scan, charge, 12V, tyres/brakes/chassis and thermal observations
- Exclude
- Guaranteed battery capacity or life.
- Service
- Charging and low-voltage triage
- Include
- Cable/inlet/EVSE/12V checks within supported procedures
- Exclude
- Grid-side work without authorised electrician.
- Service
- Tyres, brakes, suspension and alignment
- Include
- EV load/torque procedures and evidence
- Exclude
- Unsupported ADAS calibration.
- Service
- Uptime inspection and monthly report
- Include
- Corporate, rental, taxi and dealer overflow
- Exclude
- OEM HV warranty work.
- Service
- Pack removal/module work
- Include
- None at launch
- Exclude
- Opening, storage, transport or damaged-pack custody.
Franchise and operating model
Use a locally operated Greater Tunis partner bay. No exclusivity or dedicated lease until a year of audited demand, compliance and quality evidence.
Operating model
| Element | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| Format | One shared bay inside a compliant Greater Tunis partner workshop. |
| Ownership | Tunisian operating company with verified registrations and EVS quality licence after advice. |
| Territory | No exclusivity until 12 months of paid demand and quality evidence. |
| Staffing | One assessed HV lead plus one technician; partner reception/collection. |
| Technology | Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful subscriptions; no access circumvention. |
| Commercial | Menu-priced evidence products and paid fleet trials. |
| Expansion | Sousse and Sfax collection partners before fixed bays. |
- Recommendation
- One shared bay inside a compliant Greater Tunis partner workshop.
- Recommendation
- Tunisian operating company with verified registrations and EVS quality licence after advice.
- Recommendation
- No exclusivity until 12 months of paid demand and quality evidence.
- Recommendation
- One assessed HV lead plus one technician; partner reception/collection.
- Recommendation
- Supported VIN/task matrix and lawful subscriptions; no access circumvention.
- Recommendation
- Menu-priced evidence products and paid fleet trials.
- Recommendation
- Sousse and Sfax collection partners before fixed bays.
Pilot economics
All jobs, prices, margins, opex and payback values are EVS assumptions. The reversible shared-bay structure protects downside while the registered cohort matures.
Partner-pilot annual scenario EBITDA
TND, VAT-exclusive; EVS assumptions.
Annual partner-pilot economics — TND
| Scenario | Jobs | ARO ALL | Revenue ALL | Gross Margin Pct | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL | Payback Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 100 | 300 | 30,000 | 55 | 16,500 | 22,000 | -5,500 | — |
- Jobs
- 100
- ARO ALL
- 300
- Revenue ALL
- 30,000
- Gross Margin Pct
- 55
- Gross Profit ALL
- 16,500
- Opex ALL
- 22,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -5,500
- Payback Years
- —
90-day partner-pilot economics — TND
| Scenario | Jobs 90d | Revenue ALL | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 25 | 7,500 | 4,125 | 5,500 | -1,375 |
- Jobs 90d
- 25
- Revenue ALL
- 7,500
- Gross Profit ALL
- 4,125
- Opex ALL
- 5,500
- Ebitda ALL
- -1,375
Risks and mitigations
The tiny live BEV denominator, hybrid-definition gap and absent battery-treatment route are the dominant risks. OEM access, policy volatility and charging quality remain material.
Risks and mitigations
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiny live BEV denominator | High | High | ATTT extract by powertrain, governorate, age, status and VIN family before capex. |
| PHEV/HEV definition mixing | High | High | Exclude hybrids until plug-in flag is documented. |
| Demand below break-even | High | High | Shared bay, 20 deposits and one paid fleet trial before launch. |
| OEM software/parts access | High | High | Top-20 VIN/task matrix, lawful tools and authorised referral. |
| Battery fire/electric shock | Low | Critical | No pack work, controlled zone, isolation SOP, drills and damaged-pack refusal. |
| No battery treatment route | High | Critical | No traction-battery custody; written ANGED/recipient route is a later gate [battery_gap]. |
| Tax/import policy change | Medium | Medium | Quarterly finance/customs review; no subsidy in base case. |
| Charging quality/definition uncertainty | Medium | Medium | Site audit of 30 stations, connectors, uptime, access and payment. |
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- ATTT extract by powertrain, governorate, age, status and VIN family before capex.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Exclude hybrids until plug-in flag is documented.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Shared bay, 20 deposits and one paid fleet trial before launch.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- High
- Mitigation
- Top-20 VIN/task matrix, lawful tools and authorised referral.
- Likelihood
- Low
- Impact
- Critical
- Mitigation
- No pack work, controlled zone, isolation SOP, drills and damaged-pack refusal.
- Likelihood
- High
- Impact
- Critical
- Mitigation
- No traction-battery custody; written ANGED/recipient route is a later gate [battery_gap].
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Medium
- Mitigation
- Quarterly finance/customs review; no subsidy in base case.
- Likelihood
- Medium
- Impact
- Medium
- Mitigation
- Site audit of 30 stations, connectors, uptime, access and payment.
90-day entry plan
Registry and legal diligence precede deposits; deposits precede tooling; supervised dry runs precede a capped paid pilot.
90-day entry plan
| Days | Objective | Actions | Owner | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | Registry and legal gate | Obtain ATTT extract; map entity, tax, workshop, fire, electrical, OSH, waste, data and insurance. | EVS board / Tunisian counsel | Written feasibility file. |
- Objective
- Registry and legal gate
- Actions
- Obtain ATTT extract; map entity, tax, workshop, fire, electrical, OSH, waste, data and insurance.
- Owner
- EVS board / Tunisian counsel
- Deliverable
- Written feasibility file.
Explicit go / no-go gates
Any failure on active BEV density, paid demand, activity/premises approval, insurer acceptance, lawful tools, safe referral or reversible economics is a stop condition.
Go / no-go gates
| Gate | Go | No-Go |
|---|---|---|
| Market denominator | ATTT extract supports at least 1,000 active BEVs nationally and 500 in Greater Tunis | BEV/PHEV cannot be separated or active pool is below threshold. |
- Go
- ATTT extract supports at least 1,000 active BEVs nationally and 500 in Greater Tunis
- No-Go
- BEV/PHEV cannot be separated or active pool is below threshold.
Methodology
Facts, observations, targets, assumptions and calculations are separated. Conflicting definitions are reconciled, never averaged.
Methodology
| Step | Method |
|---|---|
| 1. Evidence hierarchy | Tunisian primary sources first; direct official statements via credible media where tables are unavailable. |
| 2. Definition control | Separate BEV stock, BEV annual registrations, undifferentiated hybrids, total market registrations, charging sites and targets. |
| 3. Service pool | 570 in-circulation BEVs × 95% active/available; PHEVs and HEVs excluded. |
| 4. TAM | Active BEV pool × 1.20 events × TND350 ARO. |
| 5. SAM | Active pool × 55% Greater Tunis × 60% independent reach × 1.20 events. |
| 6. SOM | Zero until market, demand, compliance, capability and economics gates clear. |
| 7. Forecasts | Five-year EVS scenarios from the April-2025 live-stock anchor; not official targets or forecasts. |
| 8. Validation | JSON/schema, formulas, citations, source grains, links, branding and residue checks. |
- Method
- Tunisian primary sources first; direct official statements via credible media where tables are unavailable.
- Method
- Separate BEV stock, BEV annual registrations, undifferentiated hybrids, total market registrations, charging sites and targets.
- Method
- 570 in-circulation BEVs × 95% active/available; PHEVs and HEVs excluded.
- Method
- Active BEV pool × 1.20 events × TND350 ARO.
- Method
- Active pool × 55% Greater Tunis × 60% independent reach × 1.20 events.
- Method
- Zero until market, demand, compliance, capability and economics gates clear.
- Method
- Five-year EVS scenarios from the April-2025 live-stock anchor; not official targets or forecasts.
- Method
- JSON/schema, formulas, citations, source grains, links, branding and residue checks.
Source register
53 linked sources record publisher, publication/access dates and scope. Primary sources control; official-source relays and commercial evidence are labelled.
EVS Board Position
CONDITIONAL GO for registry/legal diligence and a reversible Greater Tunis partner pilot after hard gates. NO-GO for standalone/franchise rollout and HOLD for traction-pack work.
Source register
53 primary and derived sources
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Source register
53 primary and derived sources
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