Tunisia.

• Conditional go only for a reversible Greater Tunis partner pilot after an ATTT registry extract. ANME reported 570 electric cars in circulation at end-April 2025, while the ATTT-derived table reports 539 BEV registrations during calendar 2025. The figures have different grains and are not added. [anme_stock_2025] [attt_2025]
• Hybrids are excluded. The 2025 table reports 2,824 hybrids but does not separate PHEVs from non-plug-in HEVs.
• The model yields 650 national TAM and 215 Greater Tunis SAM jobs annually. Every activity, geography, frequency and price input is explicit EVS assumption.
• No standalone centre, exclusive franchise or traction-pack work. ANGED reported no current battery-waste treatment solution. [battery_gap]

Authorise diligence and up to TND30,000 reversible partner-bay capex only after all gates. Base steady-state economics are 180 jobs, TND63,000 revenue, TND11,060 EBITDA and 2.71-year simple payback; all are EVS assumptions.

The authorised 2025 light-vehicle market was 63,902 registrations; a broader market figure was 93,095 including parallel imports. Neither is an EV denominator. The service model anchors to 570 BEVs in circulation at end-April 2025. [attt_2025] [market_2025] [anme_stock_2025]

BEV stock, annual BEV registrations, undifferentiated hybrids, authorised-market registrations, parallel-market vehicles, charging sites and policy targets are not interchangeable. The report never adds across these grains.

EVS applies 20%, 45% and 70% annual growth for five years to the 570 live-stock observation. These are capacity-planning cases, not the government 2030/2035 targets.

A June 2025 official interview reported 180 stations, while an earlier programme targeted 160 points by 2025. The report records both and treats neither as an audited connector/uptime census. [charging_180] [charging_160]

More than half of the wider parc was described as older than 15 years, but Tunisia’s BEV cohort is young. Launch should combine EV condition evidence and chassis work—not assume near-term traction-pack repair volume. [parc_age] [ev_brands_2025]

The sourced 570-BEV anchor is separated from EVS activity, geography, reach, frequency and price assumptions. Executable SOM is zero before hard gates.

Prioritise parallel-import BEV owners, controlled second-opinion services, corporate/rental fleets and dealer overflow. Treat PHEVs separately until the registry identifies them.

BYD led 2025 BEV registrations with 178 units, followed by Volvo and Porsche. The top models were BYD Atto 3, Volvo EX30 and Porsche Macan Electric. [ev_brands_2025]

Authorised dealers control warranty, secure software, battery tools and parts. EVS should compete on non-warranty multi-brand evidence, supported mechanical scope and fleet uptime.

Greater Tunis is the only fixed-bay pilot candidate. Sousse/Monastir and Sfax begin as collection routes until ATTT geography and paid demand support local bays.

Reported EV measures include zero customs duty, 7% VAT and 50% cuts to registration and vignette charges. Classification and current-law confirmation are mandatory; no incentive is included in workshop economics. [ev_fiscal_2024]

Planning values exclude VAT and tax. Written Tunisian advice must cover entity/activity classification, CIT, VAT, payroll/CNSS, customs, licence fees and any incentive eligibility.

Use the Market Access Portal and competent authorities to confirm the exact activity specification. No generic garage licence or electrician status is presumed sufficient.

HV authority is task-specific. Launch requires a supported VIN/task matrix, assessed staff, verified absence of voltage, controlled work zones, drills and auditable release evidence.

Phase 1 excludes traction-pack opening, removal, storage and damaged-pack custody. This is a hard constraint while no verified Tunisian treatment route exists. [battery_gap]

Lead with condition reports, non-invasive scans, charging/12V triage, tyres, brakes, suspension and fleet inspections. Market only supported VIN/task combinations.

Use a locally operated Greater Tunis partner bay. No exclusivity or dedicated lease until a year of audited demand, compliance and quality evidence.

All jobs, prices, margins, opex and payback values are EVS assumptions. The reversible shared-bay structure protects downside while the registered cohort matures.

The tiny live BEV denominator, hybrid-definition gap and absent battery-treatment route are the dominant risks. OEM access, policy volatility and charging quality remain material.

Registry and legal diligence precede deposits; deposits precede tooling; supervised dry runs precede a capped paid pilot.

Any failure on active BEV density, paid demand, activity/premises approval, insurer acceptance, lawful tools, safe referral or reversible economics is a stop condition.

Facts, observations, targets, assumptions and calculations are separated. Conflicting definitions are reconciled, never averaged.

53 linked sources record publisher, publication/access dates and scope. Primary sources control; official-source relays and commercial evidence are labelled.

CONDITIONAL GO for registry/legal diligence and a reversible Greater Tunis partner pilot after hard gates. NO-GO for standalone/franchise rollout and HOLD for traction-pack work.