Morocco.

Conditional go to an asset-light, company-controlled Casablanca–Bouskoura–Nouaceur validation hub; no immediate permanent-centre or franchise rollout. Plug-in flows accelerated sharply in H1 2026 and Morocco has an unusually strong automotive ecosystem, but active BEV/PHEV/REEV stock is not publicly resolved. EVS should contract importer/fleet work and acquire the denominator before leasing a full site.

Morocco is first an importer, fleet, evidence and multi-brand platform opportunity—not yet a mature retail repair market. Use controlled partner premises, mobile triage and two bays; convert only after stock, demand, access, legal, waste/fire and economics gates pass.

• H1 2026 recorded 1,060 BEVs, 6,090 PHEVs and 1,262 REEVs [aivam_h1_2026].
• H1 2025 recorded 461 BEVs and 2,253 PHEVs [aivam_h1_2025].
• Morocco had 3,112,040 passenger cars at end-2024, but no current plug-in stock split was located [fleet_hcp].
• APIME reported 632 public charging points, including 142 fast chargers [charging_apime].

AIVAM’s “electrified” total combines BEV, PHEV, REEV, HEV and MHEV. EVS includes only externally chargeable BEV/PHEV/REEV in the core floor. The 11,126 denominator adds non-overlapping H1-2025 and H1-2026 flows; it is not active stock.

Comparable active-stock history was not located. Plug-in/REEV flows rose from 2,714 in H1 2025 to 8,412 in H1 2026, driven primarily by PHEVs and Chinese brands. The direction is strong; absolute installed stock remains a gate.

PHEVs dominate the transition. BYD led 2025 with Seal U, while DFSK, Soueast, MG and newer entrants expanded the addressable platform mix [byd_2025] [market_2025]. HEV/MHEV growth is commercially adjacent but excluded from core EVS sizing.

Cautious/base/high cases apply 25%, 40% and 55% annual growth to the conservative flow floor over 4.5 years. These are EVS capacity sensitivities—not official forecasts—and must be rebased to active stock.

Counts conflict because sources mix stations, points and connectors. Use APIME’s 632-point estimate and FASTVOLT’s 65-location/200-plus-connector claim separately; do not add them [charging_apime] [fastvolt]. EVS should diagnose the vehicle side and partner for fixed installations.

The broad passenger parc exceeded 3.1 million at end-2024 [fleet_hcp], but no reliable age distribution or plug-in cohort extract was located. Recent plug-ins are young and warranty-heavy, concentrating early demand in PDI, evidence, charging/12V/HVAC faults, wear and collision isolation.

Do not transfer ICE maintenance spend to EVs. Build utilisation through importer, fleet/rental, insurer and used-EV contracts; add deeper thermal or pack work only after observed fault volume and authorised access.

The model applies 52% annual paid-service incidence and MAD 11,000 spend to the 11,126 flow floor, then 38% independent eligibility and 65% single-hub reach. Every rate is an EVS assumption; this is a conservative service-pool model, not an official market forecast.

Included: H1-2025 BEV/PHEV and H1-2026 BEV/PHEV/REEV flows. Excluded: HEV/MHEV, H2-2025, pre-2025 vehicles, attrition, buses, motorcycles, captive warranty work and charger installation. The true active pool may differ materially.

Importer/new-brand and corporate/rental fleet SLAs come first; insurers/bodyshops and used-EV evidence follow. Retail acquisition begins only after platform coverage and first-time-fix are proven.

Prioritise BYD Seal U/Seagull/Atto/Dolphin, DFSK E5, Soueast S06 and MG plug-ins. Add Dacia/Renault/Citroën and premium BMW/Volvo/XPeng only after demand and tool/parts access are verified.

OEM networks control warranty, software and parts, while Bosch and local garages supply independent reach. EVS differentiation is audited cross-brand safety, battery evidence, importer/fleet SLAs, collision isolation and disciplined custody—not discount labour.

Casablanca–Bouskoura–Nouaceur combines the largest customer base, importers, fleets, airport access and industrial premises. Rabat–Kénitra is second because it adds public/premium demand and manufacturing depth; Tangier and Marrakech are spokes.

No nationwide cash purchase rebate was verified. Secondary sources indicate customs/vignette advantages, but these require current ADII/DGI/NARSA confirmation and are excluded from EVS economics [customs_ev].

Morocco’s investment and automotive ecosystems may offer location-specific support, training and supplier access [investment] [stellantis]. The base pilot assumes no grant, tax holiday or subsidised finance.

The model assumes the 2026 standard 20% corporate rate below MAD100m taxable income and 20% standard VAT [tax_rates] [vat]. Obtain advice on minimum contribution, payroll, customs, withholding, transfer pricing and incentives before commitment.

Use a small company-controlled Arabic/French technical team with documented competence, rescue readiness and role authorisation. Partner with OFPPT/importers for training and confirm labour-inspection, payroll and CNSS duties [ofppt] [ompic_steps].

No workshop-specific national EV-HV licence was located. That is a risk, not permission: obtain written legal scope and secure activity, occupancy, electrical, fire, waste and data approvals before intake.

Require identify–isolate–prove dead–lock/tag–verify–rescue procedures, insulated PPE/tools, two-person escalation, controlled keys and evidence logs. No roadside HV work, unsupported energised work or pack opening at launch.

Law 28-00 governs waste management, but traction-battery classification, storage, transport and recovery require written local advice [waste_law]. Contract a licensed chain and approve damaged-battery quarantine/emergency response before intake.

Refrigerant, heat-pump and pressure-system work requires competent personnel, recovery equipment and current environmental/technical advice. Do not assume foreign qualifications map automatically.

Provide written scope, estimates, parts provenance, limitations and warranty under Law 31-08. Obtain CNDP-compliant legal bases for customer, VIN, diagnostic and telematics data [consumer_law] [data_cndp].

Start company-controlled and asset-light. Franchise only after 12 months of audited safety, first-time-fix, comeback, margin and demand KPIs. Agreements need territory, training, audit, brand, data, parts, insurance and termination controls.

Launch with battery evidence, PDI/campaign support, vehicle-side charging/thermal/12V diagnostics, wear services, fleet mobile triage and collision isolation. Keep fixed chargers with electrical partners and deep pack repair behind a separate gate.

Use two bays, appointment intake, a separated quarantine area, mobile triage and low parts inventory. Publish a platform matrix and price fixed diagnostic/evidence products before broad retail work.

The illustrative base case is 1,300 orders at MAD 10,000, 55% gross margin and MAD 6.7 million fixed cost, yielding MAD 0.45 million EBITDA. The thin margin reinforces the asset-light recommendation; low case loses MAD 4.589 million.

The principal risks are active-stock uncertainty, hybrid-definition inflation, warranty captivity, small scale, tool access, battery/fire liability, charging regulation and technician scarcity. Each maps to a measurable pre-lease gate.

The first month acquires stock data and legal clarity. The second proves platforms and paid trials. The third secures contracts, rebases economics and approves a site only if every gate passes.

No permanent lease until verified active national plug-in/REEV stock reaches 18,000, at least 8,000 are reachable in Casablanca/Rabat, 70 monthly jobs are contracted, 65% safe platform coverage is proven, all compliance gates pass and base EBITDA is positive.

What is active BEV/PHEV/REEV stock by postcode, model and year? Which importer tools/parts can EVS access? Which authority approves battery quarantine and electricity-resale arrangements? Which fleets will sign paid SLAs?

Primary government, tax, company-formation and legal sources were preferred. Registration evidence was used through attributed AIVAM reproductions because a directly queryable official file was not indexed. Facts, estimates and EVS assumptions are labelled; conflicting categories and charger definitions were reconciled.

No current official active plug-in stock, age distribution or national charger census was located. The denominator is a conservative recent-flow floor. Legal, tax, customs, electricity and municipal conditions require dated advice immediately before commitment.

The linked registry records publication/access dates, authority and definition notes. Quantitative claims resolve to source IDs; forecasts, sizing, scores, economics and gates resolve to the EVS model.

Conditional go to an asset-light, company-controlled Casablanca validation pilot; defer a permanent centre and franchise rollout. Convert only after active-stock, contracted-demand, platform, compliance and economics gates pass.