North Macedonia

Authorise a 90-day diligence and paid pilot inside one compliant Skopje partner bay, capped at MKD500,000 incremental capex. Do not lease a standalone site, sell a franchise, count hybrids, open traction batteries or custody damaged packs. Advance only if the verified Skopje VIN file, two fleet LOIs, 25 bookings, written approvals, 40 paid jobs and the four-year payback gate all pass.

Registered electric passenger cars rose from 190 in 2022 to 561 in 2023 and 1,507 in 2024 [electric_history]. The 2024 BEV share was 0.26%. The 5,078 hybrids cannot be split into PHEVs and HEVs, while imports and new-car registrations are flows; none is added to the BEV stock.

Passenger BEVs, undifferentiated hybrids, all-road EVs, imports, first registrations, charging stations, charging points, sessions and planned sites answer different questions. The report preserves those grains and rejects the UNDP aggregation that labels EVs plus all hybrids as EVs [undp_charging].

Each scenario compounds the 1,507-unit end-2024 BEV passenger-car stock for six years to 2030 at 18%, 30% or 45%. The resulting 4,068–14,006 range is an EVS planning envelope, not an official forecast or target.

EVN reported 67 stations, 131 points, presence in 20 cities and 6,589 sessions during January–May 2026 [evn_current]. An undated page says over 100 stations were installed historically; the report does not add or substitute those incompatible statements [evn_installed].

The wider vehicle parc averaged 19.4 years and over 80% of imported vehicles over the last decade were used [mia_parc]. This supports pre-purchase, chassis, tyres, brakes, cooling and HVAC, but BEV age and warranty remain unknown until the VIN file is obtained.

TAM applies a 98% active factor and 1.15 annual events to 1,507 BEV passenger cars. SAM then applies a conservative 33% Skopje concentration and 45% independent reach. A MKD12,000 ARO is an EVS assumption. Executable SOM is zero.

Prioritise used-import and out-of-warranty BEVs, electric car sharing, courier, rental and corporate fleets. Warranty, recall and security-coded work remains with authorised channels. Ordinary HEVs do not enter the plug-in sizing model.

Volkswagen Group, KIA, Tesla, Renault/smart and Toyota/Lexus have visible local routes, but no authoritative current BEV registration ranking was located [porsche_mk] [kia_mk] [eauto] [avant2go] [toyota_mk]. The supported-VIN file controls subscriptions, training and scope.

Porsche Macedonia, KIA and Toyota have authorised service routes, while eAuto has a Tesla customer relationship [porsche_mk] [kia_mk] [toyota_mk] [eauto]. General independents compete on price and convenience. EVS must win on evidence, safe scope and fleet uptime.

Over 33% of passenger cars are registered in Skopje [mia_parc]. Tetovo/Gostivar, Bitola/Prilep, Kumanovo and Ohrid become collection, referral or clinic corridors only after Skopje produces paid density.

Motor-vehicle tax incorporates CO2 [vehicle_tax]. No current 2026 national passenger-BEV cash purchase grant was located in official calls, so none is advertised or modelled. Transaction-date customs, tax and registration advice is mandatory.

The shared-bay model is nominal MKD and VAT-exclusive. Profit tax is 10% and standard VAT is 18% [profit_tax] [vat]. Reinvested-profit, TIDZ and green-investment support are potential upside only after written eligibility and award.

Entity/tax, sanctioned use, electricity/load, fire, OSH, labour, insurer, waste and data controls must all be documented [registry] [energy_law] [labour_inspectorate] [moepp_waste] [azlp]. No public EV-specific technician or workshop licence was located; obtain written confirmation.

General automotive experience is not HV competence. EVS requires VIN/task authorisation, observed isolation, LOTO, live-dead-live proof, rescue drills, supported tooling, calibrated meters and written quarantine limits.

National waste controls require stricter hazardous-waste handling, while the 2021 battery law and ADR shape downstream custody and transport [moepp_waste] [moepp_batteries] [adr]. A generic collector relationship is not written acceptance for a damaged traction pack.

Launch scan and battery-health reports, pre-purchase inspections, charging/12V faults, cooling/HVAC, tyres, alignment, brakes and fleet preventive care. Pack opening, module repair, damaged-pack custody, unsupported coding and retrofit execution are excluded.

EVS supplies SOPs, authorisation, supported-VIN tooling, audits, data and brand controls. The partner supplies premises, base lifts, qualified local staff and compliance. A franchise or standalone site waits for updated stock and twelve-month cohorts.

At 160 jobs/year, MKD12,000 ARO and 62% gross margin, annual EBITDA is MKD140,400 on MKD500,000 incremental capex—a 3.56-year simple payback. The cautious case loses MKD610,000. Premises and ordinary lifts are reused; values precede VAT, tax, finance, depreciation and working capital.

The largest risks are hybrid misclassification, thin paid demand, OEM capture, used-import tool complexity, no damaged-pack route, safety failure and incentive change. Exclusion, supported-VIN tooling, partner premises and stop gates are structural controls.

Secure the official VIN/locality file, audit partners, obtain fleet commitments and approvals, prove technical competence, build the price book and run a 40-job paid base pilot. Weekly reporting covers ARO, margin, turnaround, comeback, parts, referrals and safety.

A 169% one-year growth rate cannot authorise a site. Market, demand, traction, economics, compliance, technical competence, battery routing and quality must all pass. Any safety, electrical, insurer or environmental failure stops the affected scope.

The report prioritises national authorities and operators, records publication/access dates, separates evidence grains, labels secondary transcriptions and EVS assumptions, compounds deterministic scenarios, and keeps current executable SOM at zero.

The linked register records title, publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL and use note. Dynamic pages, operator posts and decisive registry tables should be archived in the diligence data room before investment.

CONDITIONAL GO for diligence and one capped Skopje shared-bay pilot. NO-GO for a standalone centre; HOLD franchise rights, regional sites and all traction-pack opening/removal/custody. The case reopens only when every cumulative gate passes.