Greece

Approve a 90-day paid validation, conditional Athens North site option and six-family VIN test. Defer franchise sales, pack opening, unsupported coding and KTEO inspection claims.

It starts with 35,396 cumulative BEV registrations since 2019 and a 45,911 minimum PHEV flow sum from 2018 through H1 2026, then applies a 3% EVS attrition/export allowance [evstats_jun26] [eafo_2025] [ert_h1_26]. It is not an official active fleet.

Deregistration, export and scrappage are not observed in the cumulative series. New sales, the planning pool, active stock and charging points remain separate. A current status-level registry extract is a capex gate.

The evstats series reached 30,108 at end-2025 and 35,396 in June 2026 [evstats_jun26]. The fleet is growing, but a live active-stock series is still needed before investment.

2025 BEV sales rose 2.1% to 8,894 while PHEVs rose 41.1% to 11,657 [eafo_2025]. H1 2026 recorded 5,296 BEVs and 5,200 PHEVs [ert_h1_26].

Cautious, base and high cases apply 12%, 20% and 28% annual growth for 4.5 years from the June 2026 planning pool. They are capacity scenarios, not official forecasts.

MYFAI listed 9,627 points across 4,133 locations on 28 July 2026 [charging_registry]. Points are connectors, not sites or workshops; island and corridor reliability still requires field testing.

Passenger cars averaged 17.8 years in 2024, the oldest EU fleet; vans averaged 21.2 years [acea_age]. Plug-ins remain far younger, making fleet uptime, used-EV evidence and chassis work the near-term wedge.

The pilot must confirm its exact workshop activity, responsible professional, site, fire, lift, occupational and environmental requirements. It must not imply official KTEO authority without separate approval [transport_ministry].

78,868 planning vehicles × 55% annual incidence × €900 gives €39.0m TAM. Applying 45% independent eligibility gives €17.6m; a 65% Attica reach proxy gives €11.4m SAM. Base SOM is 2,200 orders × €650 = €1.43m.

It excludes pre-2018 PHEVs, HEVs, motorcycles, buses, charging revenue, body repair, full-pack replacement, KTEO inspection and franchise fees. A live active-stock extract must replace the planning pool.

Prioritise leasing/rental/corporate fleets, used-EV dealers/importers/lenders, insurers/bodyshops/recovery and taxis. Island coverage should follow a controlled Attica hub and custody design.

BYD Dolphin, Model Y, Hyundai Inster and Volvo EX30 led 2025 BEVs; BMW X1, Toyota C-HR, Ford Kuga and Volvo XC60 led PHEVs [eafo_2025]. Every advertised function requires paid VIN-level proof.

Tesla, Kosmocar, Sfakianakis, Toyota and premium OEM networks control parts, software and warranty relationships. Bosch and local independents add multi-brand pressure. EVS must win on evidence, fleet SLA and safety governance.

Metamorfosi–Kifisia–Acharnes combines Attica’s largest affluent/fleet catchment, national-road access and automotive premises. Athens West is the cost/logistics alternative; Thessaloniki is the first later spoke.

I Move Electrically III lists a €3,000 M1/N1 BEV grant, a €50,000 pre-tax price ceiling and a 31 December 2026 deadline or earlier budget exhaustion [incentive_official]. EVS must not turn temporary subsidies into recurring service demand.

Use 22% standard corporate income tax and 24% standard VAT as planning inputs, subject to Greek advice [pwc_tax] [pwc_vat]. Development and EU aid is project-specific; the base case assumes no award.

Obtain written advice on CIT, VAT, payroll, withholding, royalties, transfer pricing, imported parts/tools, EV deductions and cross-border franchise fees before contracting.

Eurostat shows Greek hourly labour costs rising 6.5% year on year in Q1 2026 [eurostat_q1_26]. Diagnostic/HV leads are scarcer than the whole-economy average; use role-based authorisation, recurring assessment and retention pay.

Confirm company/KAD activity, regional workshop notification/licence, responsible professional, premises use, fire, lifting equipment, occupational safety, waste and F-gas before lease commitment.

Define statutory/professional competence for each task, then overlay model-specific isolation, prove-dead, LOTO, PPE, rescue and supervision. Restrict energised diagnosis and audit independently [labour].

Segregate normal, suspect, post-impact, flooded and unstable packs; monitor quarantine; record custody; and contract authorised transport/treatment. EU battery rules do not replace Greek waste, ferry/transport and fire duties [eu_battery] [waste_registry].

Confirm refrigerant, recovery, leak-control and technician/company certification requirements under EU and Greek F-gas rules [eu_fgas].

Use Greek-language quotations and terms, transparent diagnostic limits, approval before extra work, documented battery-health methodology, complaints handling and GDPR controls [consumer] [data_auth].

No dedicated public franchise registration was identified. General contract, good-faith, competition, IP, consumer, labour and tax rules apply; confirm disclosure and cross-border structure locally [competition].

Battery certificates, charging/HVAC diagnosis, tyres/chassis/brakes, fleet maintenance and mobile triage should precede post-impact work. Pack opening and unsupported coding stay on hold.

Centralise QA, data and training; use lawful repair-information access; contract parts, towing, insurer and waste partners; add Thessaloniki only after Athens utilisation is proven.

The base produces €1.43m revenue, €786,500 gross profit and €36,500 EBITDA. Replace rent, wages, insurance, parts, tax and central allocations with binding local quotes.

Expansion depends on a live active-fleet extract, lawful tool access, paid fleet/used-EV demand and audited safety controls—not cumulative sales or subsidy headlines.

Close the active denominator and workshop/site issues in days 0–30, run paid multi-platform jobs in days 31–60, then secure anchor demand and binding operating quotes in days 61–90.

No capex or franchise rollout unless denominator, demand, paid evidence, technical, safety/compliance, economics and network gates all pass.

How many of the 81,307 evidenced cumulative registrations remain active, by age/model/postcode? Which fleets and rental companies will contract year-round? Which functions and parts are lawful and accessible by VIN?

SEAA/evstats and EAFO control registration flows; the Ministry MYFAI registry controls charging. Authorities, EU institutions and named participants provide regulatory and competitor context. Sourced facts, EVS calculations and assumptions remain separate.

No clean current public active BEV/PHEV stock or postcode/age/model extract was located. The PHEV floor starts in 2018 and the 3% attrition allowance is an EVS assumption. Workshop quotes, legal scope, tool access and contracted demand remain gates.

The register records publisher, publication/access date, URL and use. Official/market facts, EU rules, competitor evidence and EVS assumptions remain distinguishable.

CONDITIONAL GO for a 90-day paid validation and one company-controlled Athens North hub option. NO-GO for immediate franchising, pack rebuilding, island rollout or KTEO claims.