Montenegro.

• Conditional go only for a reversible Podgorica shared-bay pilot. The last exact stock anchor is 713 registered electric vehicles at end-2024. The accessible 2025 release reports 32.9% growth but not the resulting count/class split, so a standalone centre or franchise remains a no-go. [ekofond_stock_charge] [monstat_2025_relay]
• The model is deliberately conservative. Applying the 84.18% passenger-car share and 98% active factor yields 588 vehicles nationally; the Podgorica concentration proxy and 45% reach yield only 97 annual SAM jobs.
• Launch around evidence and convenience. Supported-VIN scans, battery-health/pre-purchase reports, 12V, charging faults, HVAC, tyres, brakes and fleet/holiday collection. Hold pack opening, battery custody, warranty, recall and secure software.
• Scale is gated. Require verified M1/N1 VINs, 15 paid bookings, one fleet/hospitality LOI, complete approvals, 18 paid pilot jobs, EUR250 ARO, 62% margin and positive 90-day EBITDA.

Authorise up to EUR9,000 of reversible incremental capex for diligence and a 90-day shared-bay pilot only after pre-launch gates clear. Do not sign a standalone lease, grant territory exclusivity or advertise traction-battery repair. The base case delivers 72 jobs, EUR18,000 revenue, EUR2,660 EBITDA and 3.38-year simple payback; all are EVS assumptions.

Eko-fond reported 713 electric vehicles in 2024, about 29% above the prior year. MONSTAT then reported 32.9% electric growth in 2025, but the accessible release omits the resulting count and class split. EVS therefore anchors execution to 713, shows the 2025 growth only as directional evidence and excludes 3,130 undifferentiated hybrids. [ekofond_stock_charge] [monstat_2025_relay]

Stock, growth rates, quarterly registrations, first registrations, hybrids, charging locations, connectors, grid approvals and active connections answer different questions. The artifact never adds flows to stock or treats all hybrids as PHEVs.

Six-year end-2030 scenarios grow the exact end-2024 anchor at 15%, 25% and 35%. Even the high case does not itself justify a lease; service demand and independent reach must be observed.

The reported national register contains 41 locations, concentrated in Budva, Podgorica and Tivat. The same source separately reports 30 CEDIS connection approvals and 19 active connections. None is a verified connector, power, access or uptime inventory. [ekofond_stock_charge]

Passenger cars average 17.6 years and 86.1% exceed ten years, creating conventional chassis/HVAC utilisation. EV age is not published. [monstat_2024_parc]

The model starts with 713, applies the national passenger-car share and a 98% active factor, then localises with Podgorica all-vehicle concentration and 45% independent reach. Current executable SOM is zero.

Early products should solve trust and downtime problems. Tourism/rental demand is a hypothesis that requires paid coastal clinic bookings.

No audited BEV/PHEV model mix was located. Local authorised networks and used-import signals shape a VIN whitelist but are not market-share evidence.

EVS should occupy the supported non-warranty evidence niche, not imply OEM authorisation.

Podgorica holds 31.73% of 2024 registered vehicles on an all-class proxy. Budva/Tivat charging concentration and tourism support a pre-booked clinic test, not fixed coastal capex.

Eko-fond lists 2026 zero-emission vehicle calls. Eligibility, amount, budget and award must be read from the live call; no subsidy is included in EVS economics. [ekofond_calls]

The model excludes VAT and income tax. MIA publishes a 9–15% corporate-profit-tax headline; transaction, taxable-profit band and payroll treatment require written current advice. [mia]

Company registration alone is insufficient. Close municipal use/fire, OSH, workshop scope, electricity, waste, privacy, insurance and OEM/tool gates in writing.

Generic mechanic experience is insufficient. The authorisation system must control vehicle, task, isolation, PPE, rescue, audit evidence and quarantine.

No damaged vehicle indoors, pack opening, removal, module work, storage or transport until written local classification, fire, insurer, carrier and destination approvals exist.

Promise only supported tasks. A no-touch referral can be a premium safety feature.

Use one compliant partner bay in Podgorica, a narrow VIN list, collection and pre-booked coastal clinics. Do not grant a franchise territory.

The base case uses 72 annual jobs—below the 97-job SAM—at EUR250 ARO and 62% gross margin. EUR8,500 annual incremental opex produces EUR2,660 EBITDA and 3.38-year payback on EUR9,000 capex.

A large facility magnifies both market and safety error. Reversible capex, supported-VIN scope, no battery custody and hard stop-losses are the principal mitigations.

The plan front-loads VINs, approvals, competence, paid bookings and partner audit before any customer vehicle is accepted.

Open gates are not roadmap dates. Any material HV/fire event or evidence breach stops work immediately.

Primary/authoritative sources are preferred; accessible official-data relays are labelled. Scope reconciliation precedes calculation, and every EVS assumption is isolated and sensitivity-testable.

The artifact embeds a complete linked source audit with publisher, publication date when available, access date and scope note. No material quantitative claim relies on an invented statistic.

CONDITIONAL GO for a gated Podgorica shared-bay pilot after every pre-launch gate clears. NO-GO for a standalone centre or territory franchise now. HOLD all pack-level and damaged-battery custody work.