Kosovo.

• Conditional go only for a reversible Prishtina partner pilot after a registry extract. Kosovo reports 546,551 registered motor and non-motor vehicles in 2025, but not a current BEV/PHEV stock split. [ask_transport_2025]
• The service pool is a proxy, not official stock. EVS combines 585 BEV imports reported through September 2024 with 590 imported during 2025, then applies a 10% active/in-market haircut. [customs_585] [customs_bev_series]
• The model yields 1,323 national TAM and 436 Prishtina SAM jobs annually. Both depend on explicit EVS assumptions.
• No standalone centre, territory franchise or traction-pack work until market, demand, compliance, capability and economics gates clear.

Authorise diligence and up to EUR30,000 reversible partner-pilot capex only after all hard gates. Base steady-state economics are 420 jobs, EUR48,300 revenue, EUR7,946 EBITDA and 3.78-year simple payback; all are EVS assumptions.

The official 2025 total is 546,551 registered motor and non-motor vehicles. The EV denominator is not published at equivalent quality, so the report uses a conservative cumulative BEV-import cohort proxy and excludes PHEVs from sizing. [ask_transport_2025] [customs_585] [customs_bev_series]

Kosovo evidence mixes all vehicle classes, electric/hybrid/similar registrations, pure-BEV import flows and combined electric/hybrid customs values. None are interchangeable. The 2022 combined figure of 2,650 is retained as context only. [mia_combined_2022]

EVS applies 12%, 25% and 40% annual growth for five years to the 1,175 import-cohort proxy. These capacity-planning cases are not official live-stock forecasts.

ECHARGE reports 24+ stations, 429+ MWh and 18,000+ sessions. These are operator metrics—not a national census—and are not combined with bus-project chargers or utility fleet counts. [echarge]

Kosovo is a used-import market: 2025 car imports were about 90% used, while the large Volkswagen parc averaged 19 years in a 2024 registration analysis. EVS should lead with condition evidence, chassis, brakes, tyres and charging diagnostics rather than assume mature traction-pack demand. [customs_total_2025] [parc_age_brands]

Sourced import flows are separated from EVS active, geography, reach, frequency and price assumptions. Executable SOM is zero before hard gates.

Prioritise used-import owners, out-of-warranty BEVs, electric taxis and private fleets. PHEVs remain a separate commercial opportunity outside the numeric model.

Tesla and BYD have small, young visible cohorts, while Volkswagen Group has an authorised service presence. No public model ranking supports inventory-level tooling decisions; a top-20 VIN audit is mandatory. [parc_age_brands] [vw_kosovo]

Authorised networks retain warranty, secure diagnostics, parts and recall advantages. EVS should compete only on controlled multi-brand scope, independent evidence and fleet uptime.

Prishtina is the sole fixed-site pilot candidate because fleets, authorised dealers and charging activity cluster there. Prizren and Ferizaj should begin as collection markets, not leased sites.

The reviewed proposal for zero EV registration tax was draft, not enacted. Base economics assume no purchase subsidy, customs relief, grant or tax holiday. [customs_585]

The model is VAT-exclusive and pre-tax. Written advice must cover entity/activity classification, VAT, CIT, payroll, customs, related-party/licence fees and beneficial ownership before commitment.

No single generic garage licence is assumed. The pilot must close entity, activity, municipal, vehicle-repair, fire, electrical, OSH, waste, insurer and privacy gates in writing.

Vehicle HV competence is task-specific. Launch requires a VIN/task whitelist, verified de-energisation, controlled zones, rescue drills and auditable release records. [osh_law] [iso_6469]

Phase 1 excludes pack opening, removal, storage and damaged-pack custody. Waste, hazardous-waste, fire, insurer, carrier, ADR/UN and destination requirements must align before later scope.

Lead with pre-purchase evidence, non-invasive scans, charging/12V triage, tyres, brakes, suspension and fleet inspections. Market only supported VIN/task combinations.

Use a locally operated Prishtina partner format. No exclusivity or standalone lease until a year of audited demand, compliance and quality evidence.

The pilot uses reversible partner-bay capex. Jobs, prices, margins, opex and payback are EVS assumptions that require supplier quotes and paid-job validation.

The unresolved BEV denominator is the primary commercial risk. OEM access, battery safety, site power, policy volatility, inflation and informal competition remain material.

Registry and legal diligence precede demand proof; demand proof precedes capability spend; supervised dry runs precede paid launch.

Any failure on active BEV count, paid demand, compliance, insurer acceptance, tool access, battery route or reversible economics is a stop condition.

Facts, proxies, assumptions and calculations are separated. Conflicting source definitions are reconciled, never averaged.

52 linked sources record publisher, publication/access dates and scope. Primary sources control; official-source relays and commercial evidence are explicitly labelled.

CONDITIONAL GO for registry/legal diligence and a reversible Prishtina partner pilot after hard gates. NO-GO for standalone/franchise rollout and HOLD for traction-pack work until operating proof.