Ireland

Approve a 90-day paid validation programme and a conditional premises option. Do not approve a national franchise rollout, battery-module repair or unsupported programming until demand, platform access, safety, staffing and economics pass explicit gates.

Ireland had 134,475 licensed BEVs at 30 June 2026, 4.0% of 3,340,922 licensed vehicles. The private-tax-class BEV denominator is 124,753 and 93% of EVs were private vehicles [cso_fleet26].

CSO’s electric category is the exact BEV anchor. ZEVI’s 247,363 vehicles under current EV taxation is a broader official programme measure and is not subtracted from BEVs to invent a PHEV stock. CSO hybrid stock combines plug-in and non-plug-in hybrids, so PHEVs remain outside the core service-pool model [cso_fleet26] [zevi_home].

Licensed passenger BEVs rose from 59,400 at end-2023 to 77,336 at end-2024, a 30.2% increase. The broader licensed BEV total rose from 96,817 in June 2025 to 134,475 in June 2026, up 39% [cso_fleet26]. The scope change is explicit and those points are not treated as one perfectly comparable series.

CSO recorded 23,398 new BEV private cars and 18,237 new PHEVs in 2025, shares of 19% and 15%. In H1 2026, BEVs reached 19,580 and 24%; PHEVs reached 11,970 and 15% [cso_2025] [cso_jun26].

SIMI reported 23,601 BEV registrations in 2025 versus 23,398 CSO first licences. The 203-unit difference reflects registration/licensing timing and coverage. The report uses CSO for official flows and retains SIMI only as an industry cross-check [simi_2025] [cso_2025].

H1 2026 used imports included 4,830 BEVs, up 278% year on year, and 6,795 PHEVs, up 47%. Combined new and used activity reached 24,410 BEVs and 18,765 PHEVs [cso_jun26]. Imports accelerate used, potentially out-of-warranty demand but require model-origin and support screening.

From the 124,753 private-BEV June 2026 base, EVS planning scenarios reach about 192k cautious, 243k base and 305k high private BEVs by end-2030. These 10%, 16% and 22% CAGRs are EVS assumptions, not official forecasts. The government’s 30% electric-car ambition is policy context only [eib_charge].

ZEVI reported 3,428 public charging points at 1,150 locations in June 2026 and expects 80–90% of owners to charge at home [zevi_home]. Separately, government programmes fund new high-power locations [hubs90] [hubs53]. Planned stations are not added to the current count.

Of 123,483 private BEVs with known manufacture year, 81.1% were under five years old, 16.7% were 6–10 and 2.2% were 11+ [cso_fleet26]. The young parc supports diagnostics, tyres, collision/insurance and used-car certification now; deeper out-of-warranty battery demand should grow rather than be assumed mature.

Ireland’s wider car fleet averages about 9.9 years and NCT completed about 1.7m full tests in the preceding year [rsa_nct25]. The 2024 dangerous-fail rate was 7.4% [rsa_danger], while 182,160 vehicles failed for tyres in the 12 months to October 2025 [rsa_tyres]. These are all-car demand signals, not EV-only incidence rates.

Core TAM is 124,753 private BEVs × 55% addressable annual incidence × EUR1,650 = EUR113.2m. Independent-eligible value is EUR62.3m. Applying the official 49% Dublin+Cork BEV concentration as a demand proxy gives EUR30.5m SAM. Base pilot SOM is 2,500 repair orders × EUR1,850 = EUR4.63m. Every incidence, spend and eligibility input is an EVS assumption.

PHEVs, commercial vehicles, statutory NCT revenue, charging installation, collision bodywork, national franchising and full-pack replacement are excluded. Dublin+Cork stock concentration is sourced; assuming service demand follows stock is explicitly EVS judgement.

Prioritise out-of-warranty owners, leasing/company fleets, used-car dealers/importers, insurers/recovery operators and high-utilisation fleets. PHEVs are commercially relevant but operationally more complex and remain outside the numerical core case.

June 2026 licensing was led by Tesla Model 3, Model Y and VW ID.4 [cso_jun26]. Launch coverage should also address Hyundai/Kia and ageing Nissan Leaf, with BYD and other new entrants admitted only after tool, parts and repair-information tests.

Tesla lists service centres in Sandyford and Cork [tesla_service]. Bosch offers battery tests and EV/hybrid service [bosch_ev]; EV7 and The EV Wizard show specialist and mobile competition [ev7] [evwizard]. Authorised groups retain factory access [fitzpatrick]. EVS must win on cross-brand evidence, repair-first triage, insurer workflow and fleet uptime—not generic servicing.

Dublin and Cork contain 49% of private licensed BEVs, 61,241 vehicles, despite about 40% of the population [cso_fleet26]. Recommend Dublin West/Southwest for motorway and industrial access, Cork as first spoke, and Kildare as a collection/mobile catchment. Location scores are EVS assumptions pending county/postcode stock, lease, labour and customer-origin data.

Current supports include a ZEVI purchase grant up to EUR3,500, BEV VRT relief up to EUR5,000 through 31 December 2026 and a home-charger grant up to EUR300 [zevi_home] [revenue_vrt] [seai_home]. The 2026 scrappage pilot is closed and is excluded from forecasts [seai_scrappage].

SEAI lists N1 grants up to EUR3,800 or EUR7,600, fleet-assessment support up to EUR4,000 or EUR8,000 and qualifying Accelerated Capital Allowance [seai_business] [seai_fleet]. DTIF and enterprise capital programmes are competitive innovation channels; routine workshop capex receives no assumed grant [dtif] [enterprise_plan].

Irish trading corporation tax is 12.5% and standard VAT is 23% [revenue_cit] [revenue_vat]. Use an Irish private company limited by shares or registered external-company branch after tax advice; CRO requires timely branch registration [cro_external]. 2026 electric company-car BIK relief totals a EUR30,000 OMV reduction [revenue_bik].

Recruit a lead diagnostician before premises commitment, then authorise technicians by platform and work type. Ireland’s planned National Centre for EV Skills supports the pipeline but is not a substitute for task-level competence evidence [skills_centre]. WRC and employment-permit rules require live HR review [wrc] [permits].

No single blanket motor-workshop licence was identified. EVS must map planning, building, fire, waste, F-gas, fixed-electrical, consumer, employment and insurance duties to the specific site and services [local_planning] [epa_fgas]. NCT is a separate statutory inspection activity and is not part of the launch proposition [nct] [rsa_nct].

HSA requires risk assessment, a written safety statement, maintained equipment and competent people [hsa_risk] [hsa_electricity]. Obtain written specialist advice on traction-vehicle HV versus fixed electrical work. Enforce lockout, test-before-touch, insulated tools, controlled access, rescue equipment and signed competency records.

EPA classifies EV batteries as industrial batteries and may treat importers as producers, triggering registration, reporting and waste-financing duties [epa_battery]. The EU Battery Regulation also applies [battery_eu]. No pack opening before quarantine, monitoring, transport, authorised treatment, fire plan and insurer terms are signed [fire].

Use a Safe Electric registered contractor where premises or customer charger work is controlled fixed electrical work [safe_electric]. Vehicle traction-system competence is a separate capability and must not be inferred from fixed-installation registration.

Quotes, authorisation, conformity, remedies and warranties must comply with the Consumer Rights Act [consumer_act]. VINs, telematics, battery reports and fleet data require GDPR minimisation, access control and retention governance [dpc].

Begin company-controlled. No Ireland-specific franchise statute is assumed; use Irish contract counsel and EU vertical/motor-aftermarket rules [vber] [motor_guidelines] [ccpc_comp]. Repair-information law supports independent access but does not guarantee protected security functions or parts [type_approval].

Launch battery-health certificates, paid diagnosis, charging/thermal faults, tyres/alignment/brakes/suspension, compliant HVAC, fleet SLAs, collection and mobile triage. Hold module repair, unsupported programming and safety-critical ADAS release behind explicit legal, technical and insurer gates.

Use one company-controlled Dublin hub, central technical governance, a VIN/function capability database and Cork/Kildare referral/mobile coverage. Defer all franchise sales until the hub has one audited operating year, reproducible training, controlled tools, safety audit evidence and validated unit economics.

The illustrative base case generates EUR4.63m revenue, 56% gross margin and EUR0.24m EBITDA before tax, financing and central allocations. Low case loses EUR1.59m; high case earns EUR2.10m. The thin base case makes anchor demand, staged capex and ticket validation mandatory.

Critical risks are OEM access and battery fire. High risks are young parc timing, Dublin cost, limited national scale, incumbent capability and unknown exact PHEV stock. The strategy controls them through staged scope, paid evidence, one hub and explicit exclusion of PHEVs from core sizing.

Days 0–30: legal/HSE scope, interviews, data requests and tool matrix. Days 31–60: 80 paid diagnostics, 25 VIN/function tests and binding cost quotes. Days 61–90: anchor LOIs, HSE audit, conditional lease option, lead hire and refreshed board model.

No hub without credible demand, at least 90% promised-function success, written safety/compliance approvals, validated positive base economics and a competent team. No franchise sales before the separate franchise gate.

Primary Irish and EU sources anchor fleet, licensing, charging, tax, incentives and regulation. Commercial sources are used only to map competition. Quantitative claims point to source IDs; EVS assumptions are separated in datasets, calculations and narrative.

No exact clean current PHEV stock, county-by-county live extract, workshop labour/lease quotes, OEM-function success rate, insurer terms or EV-only failure incidence was available in primary public data. These remain diligence gates and are not replaced with invented figures.

The source table records publisher, publication date where available, access date, definition notes and direct URL. Material current quantitative and regulatory pages were freshly checked; URL syntax validation is not represented as universal website availability.

Approve Ireland validation. Authorise a Dublin West/Southwest hub only after all operating gates pass, establish Cork as the first spoke or partner, and defer national franchising and battery-module work.