Belgium.

Verdict: conditional go for a company-controlled Mechelen–Vilvoorde–Zaventem technical hub, with Antwerp and Brussels served by collection/mobile triage; no immediate franchise sale. Belgium combines a fast-growing BEV fleet, dense charging, premium corporate-car concentration and a large lease-return pipeline. Capture risk is material because new BEVs are company-led, young and warranty-heavy, while OEM/dealer and national independent networks are strong.

Approve only a 90-day paid validation and compliant-site design. Require a written Flemish site/permit classification, HEV2-led safety system, live access proof on twelve priority platforms, two anchor fleet/leasing accounts, 120 paid jobs and a credible path above EUR0.83m annual break-even revenue before a six-bay lease.

Statbel counted 395,188 battery-electric passenger cars on 1 August 2025, up 55.4% year on year, within a 6,136,034 passenger-car parc. This official BEV stock is the report’s auditable service-pool denominator.

Statbel also reported 846,354 “hybrid” passenger cars, but that category combines plug-in and non-plug-in hybrids. It is therefore excluded from TAM/SAM; PHEV service demand is upside pending an official fuelplus extract that isolates PHEVs.

The broader Belgian passenger-car parc is large and ageing. FEBIAC reports 6.07m cars and an average age of 10.2 years at end-2025, while the BEV component is much younger and driven by corporate fleets.

Statbel’s 1 August stock, FEBIAC/FPS registration series and EAFO/EV Belgium charging series use different dates and scopes. FEBIAC’s 143,849 new BEV passenger cars controls 2025 sales; EAFO’s 145,170 “electric vehicles sold” is retained as broader context, not averaged. The approximate 450,000 end-2025 BEV fleet is contextual because Statbel’s exact 1 August value is the last official split used for sizing.

Belgium registered 143,849 new BEV passenger cars in 2025, 34.7% of 414,771 new cars. Only 15,483 were private registrations; 89.2% were therefore professional/company registrations.

PHEVs represented 9.3% of new passenger-car registrations in 2025. H1 2025 recorded 27,473 new PHEVs, 70.2% registered by private customers, showing a customer mix distinct from BEVs.

BEV stock rose from 138,749 in August 2023 to 254,240 in August 2024 and 395,188 in August 2025. New-BEV share reached 28.5% in 2024 and 34.7% in 2025.

In H1 2026 Belgium registered 83,282 new BEV passenger cars, equal to 36.1% of 230,681 new cars. Used-BEV registrations rose 42.5% to 21,180 and reached 5.9% of the used market.

H1 2026 is not annualised mechanically. Corporate registrations fell in absolute terms, the private BEV share only just exceeded 10%, and tax, lease-cycle and model timing can distort half-year comparisons.

From the official August 2025 BEV stock, EVS models 750,000 cautious, 1.05m base and 1.35m high BEVs at end-2030, approximate annual growth rates of 12.6%, 19.8% and 25.5%. These are planning scenarios, not official forecasts.

EAFO/EV Belgium’s approximate 450,000 end-2025 fleet and expectation of more than 600,000 in 2026 indicate momentum, but the report does not treat those industry outlook figures as guaranteed. PHEVs remain outside the BEV forecast.

EAFO/EV Belgium counted 106,677 public and semi-public charging points in 2025, up 23%; 99,341 were AC and 5,547 were DC above 150kW. Regional definitions and station-versus-point counts must remain explicit.

The network’s density reduces adoption friction and creates referral demand for CCS refusal, onboard-charger faults, isolation errors, thermal derating and 12V/network problems. AFIR governs public charging payment and information obligations.

Flanders dominates installed infrastructure and BEV stock, while Wallonia and Brussels grew faster from smaller bases. EVS should use charge operators, leasing companies and roadside providers as referral partners rather than compete in infrastructure installation.

Launch scope is vehicle-side charging diagnosis and evidence. Fixed charger installation, grid work and operator compliance remain outside the workshop unless separately licensed, insured and staffed.

FEBIAC reports a 10.2-year average passenger-car age. This supports conventional chassis, brake, tyre and air-conditioning demand, but the BEV fleet itself is young; near-term EV work is diagnostics, damage triage, lease returns, charging/thermal faults and condition evidence.

H1 2026 used-BEV registrations increased 42.5% to 21,180; 69% were in Flanders. Lease returns and the still-low 5.9% used-BEV share create a strong independent use case for battery-health interpretation, pre-purchase evidence, recall/software checks and repair-cost estimates.

Sourced baseline: 395,188 official BEV passenger cars. EVS assumptions: 0.70 paid jobs per BEV/year, EUR240 average revenue, 38% independently addressable and 75% within priority regions/segments. Result: EUR66.39m TAM, EUR25.23m independently eligible pool and EUR18.92m SAM. PHEVs are excluded.

A base six-bay pilot at 2,700 jobs and EUR340 average ticket produces EUR918,000 revenue, equal to 4.85% of modelled SAM. This is a capacity-based SOM, not a claimed market share.

Prioritise leasing/fleet returns, used-EV dealers and buyers, insurers/body shops, premium company-car drivers, rental/corporate fleets and independent garages needing escalation. A fleet-first B2B mix matches Belgium’s ownership structure and lowers retail acquisition risk.

The 2024 installed-flow leaders were Tesla Model Y/3, Audi Q4 e-tron, BMW iX1/i4, Volvo EX30/EX40, Škoda Enyaq, Volkswagen ID.4 and Mercedes EQB. H1 2025 confirms BMW iX1 as a priority Belgian platform and fourteen BEVs in the overall top 25.

PHEV service demand should be accepted on a validated whitelist, but stock sizing waits for an official split. Launch tooling should prioritise BMW/MINI, VW Group MEB/PPE, Tesla, Volvo/Polestar, Mercedes, Renault, Hyundai/Kia and selected Chinese platforms.

Platform support must be proven VIN-by-VIN. Belgium’s premium company-car mix favours higher-value diagnostic and evidence work, while BYD, XPeng, Leapmotor, Omoda and Jaecoo require parts, security and documentation proof before promises.

D’Ieteren and other OEM groups control warranty, campaigns, software and parts; Tesla retains direct platform authority. Bosch Car Service, Auto5, Midas, Profile, Q Team and Euromaster bring reach, tyres/chassis and fleet relationships. EVS must differentiate through EV-specific evidence, difficult diagnosis, B2B SLAs and transparent case management.

Primary: Mechelen–Vilvoorde–Zaventem, providing motorway access to Antwerp, Brussels, Leuven and the national fleet/leasing base while avoiding Brussels-core premises. Second: Antwerp–Wommelgem. Ghent is a later controlled site; Liège–Namur follows only after Walloon demand and permitting proof.

Belgium has no current universal regional BEV purchase grant; the Flemish 2024 premium ended early. Fiscal treatment now varies materially by region, registration date, vehicle mass/power and customer type.

In Flanders, BEVs first registered from 1 January 2026 pay EUR61.50 BIV and EUR107.16 annual road tax; earlier registrations retain exemption. Wallonia’s July 2025 TMC formula uses power, CO2, mass and energy, with EUR50–EUR9,000 bounds. Brussels rules require a live quote before customer advice.

Company-car treatment remains the core demand driver. Current federal/EAFO guidance supports full deductibility for qualifying BEVs acquired through 2026 with a phased decline thereafter, but each lease/acquisition date and employer reimbursement method needs Belgian tax confirmation.

Belgium’s standard corporate income-tax rate is 25% and standard VAT is 21%. Workshop pricing, parts, cross-border purchases, payroll and permanent-establishment treatment require Belgian tax design; no reduced rate is assumed in the pilot model.

VLAIO, regional energy/environment schemes and EIB-linked finance are project-specific discovery channels, not guaranteed workshop grants. Model the centre without subsidy and treat any awarded support as upside.

Use a Belgian entity or documented branch structure, CBE/KBO registration, correct NACE-BEL activities and establishment units, UBO filing, VAT activation, business bank account and NSSO employer registration. Confirm language and consumer-document duties for the chosen region.

There is no single national “EV garage licence” that substitutes for site, safety and activity obligations. Flanders uses VLAREM classification and an integrated environment permit/notification; Brussels and Wallonia have separate classified-installation regimes. Obtain written scope classification before lease.

A Mechelen/Vilvoorde site keeps the first centre within the largest EV/used-BEV region and simplifies a Flemish permit path. Collection into Brussels is preferable until parking, fire, battery-storage and environmental-permit economics are proven.

Register only activities actually performed. Pack opening, refrigerant work, ADAS, security programming, towing, charger installation, hazardous storage and ELV treatment each change competence, equipment, insurance or permit requirements.

Belgian employers must operate a documented workplace risk system. EVS should use EDUCAM’s HEV1/HEV2/HEV3 roles as the minimum competence architecture, supplemented by OEM procedures, rescue planning, lockout/tagout, calibrated test equipment and practical authorisation.

HEV1 staff do not isolate or work on live HV; HEV2 staff isolate/re-energise and work on verified de-energised systems; HEV3 covers live work. Name an HV responsible person per shift and prohibit live work at launch.

Do not infer technician availability from certificate pages. Validate supply through EDUCAM, technical schools, recruiters and paid practical assessments; the lease gate requires a workshop manager plus four viable technicians.

EU Batteries Regulation obligations intersect with Belgian producer responsibility. Febelauto is the recognised route for EV batteries and ELVs; battery/modules placed on the secondary market can trigger contribution and producer-role analysis from 2026.

Use authorised carriers and treatment partners, classify batteries and other hazardous workshop wastes, and maintain movement records. Wallonia explicitly requires garage/bodyshop hazardous-waste production declarations twice yearly; regional duties differ.

Refrigerant recovery and servicing must follow Regulation 2024/573 and applicable certification. Battery thermal work is not permission to open refrigerant circuits. Gate F-gas services behind named competence, equipment and records.

VINs, diagnostic logs, telematics, images and customer/fleet records are personal or commercially sensitive data. Implement GDPR notices, access control, retention periods, processor contracts, breach response and separate consent for analytics.

Launch with non-invasive battery/condition evidence, pre-purchase and lease-return inspections, charging/thermal/12V/network diagnosis, tyres/alignment/suspension/brakes, insurer/bodyshop HV support and fleet pickup/delivery. Gate programming, ADAS, refrigerant and pack work behind evidence.

Belgian Code of Economic Law Book X applies to commercial cooperation including franchise. A draft agreement and prescribed precontractual information must be delivered at least one month before signing or payment; 2025 rules add competitive, expansion, recurring-investment and model operating-account disclosures.

Start company-controlled. Prove bilingual workflows, regional permits, labour, technical access, warranty/refund controls and economics at two controlled sites for twelve audited months before offering a franchise. Use collection spokes before additional workshops.

EVS’s six-bay scenarios are deliberately illustrative. Base: 2,700 jobs, EUR340 ticket, EUR918,000 revenue, 58% contribution and EUR480,000 fixed cost, producing EUR52,440 EBIT. Break-even revenue is approximately EUR827,586. Quotes and paid-job evidence must replace assumptions.

Principal risks are warranty retention, OEM/software access, corporate-fleet concentration, regional regulatory complexity, technician scarcity, battery/fire liability, used-BEV price volatility and premature franchising. Stage capital, whitelist platforms, contract B2B demand and exclude live-HV/cell work initially.

Days 1–30 — evidence and compliance. Appoint Belgian counsel/accountant; obtain site classifications in three Flemish industrial candidates; map twelve platforms; interview 35 fleets/leasing/used-dealer/insurer prospects; quote insurance, waste, tooling and utilities; recruit the HV lead.

Days 31–60 — controlled service. Run pop-up/partner-bay paid diagnostics, log scan success and parts access, sign two anchor accounts, train HEV roles, finalise emergency/quarantine/waste plans, and collect price/turnaround evidence.

Days 61–90 — gate. Reach 120 paid jobs; measure first-time fix, comebacks, ticket and contribution; audit safety and data controls; negotiate a conditional lease only if demand, staffing, permit, insurance and economics gates pass.

Primary and authoritative sources were prioritised: Statbel, FPS Mobility/Finance/Economy/Employment, regional authorities, FEBIAC/MOBIA, EAFO, EU law, EDUCAM and Febelauto. Facts are dated and kept separate from EVS assumptions. Conflicting scopes are disclosed rather than averaged.

The report is decision support, not Belgian legal, tax, safety or engineering advice. Official PHEV stock was not isolated in the last accessible Statbel stock table; it is excluded from sizing. Catchment stock, prices, labour, premises, insurance, tool access and willingness to pay require field validation.

Every material quantitative claim resolves to the linked register. Access date: 8 August 2026. “Current 2026” pages should be rechecked immediately before investment or customer tax advice.

Proceed only with a company-controlled Mechelen–Vilvoorde–Zaventem validation hub and paid 90-day proof. Belgium is large enough and still growing; the winning proposition is independent EV evidence and B2B turnaround, not commodity maintenance or an immediate franchise rollout.