Georgia

Open exactly one reversible Tbilisi partner site after comparing Kakheti Highway–Orkhevi with Dighomi–Beliashvili. Sell battery-health/pre-purchase evidence, multi-brand diagnosis, wear, collision HV isolation and contracted fleet uptime. Require 360 paid orders, 52% margin, positive EBITDA, six counterparties, 75 monthly contracted jobs, 80% top-25 VIN coverage and complete compliance before capital [evs_model].

End-2025 stock was 15,581 electric vehicles against 1,650,048 passenger cars, a calculated 0.944% [stock_2025]. Jan–Sep first EV registrations were 5,255 or 4.8% [registrations_2025]. Jan–Aug customs imports were 5,216, but re-export is material [imports_2025] [reexport_ev]. A commercial map showed 477 chargers; 130 of Tbilisi’s planned 198 municipal fast stations were installed by November 2025 [elva_map] [chargers_tbilisi].

The model uses only 15,581 end-2025 registered electric vehicles as the hard denominator. The same fuel-type release reports hybrids separately, so EVS treats the electric figure as BEV pending a VIN extract. First registrations and imports are flows; imports may be re-exported and are never added to stock. Commercial charger counts are not an official live-port census. PHEV and conventional HEV remain outside the base pool.

Published Geostat history rises from 852 EVs in 2017 to 3,283 in 2022, 5,052 in 2023, 9,045 in 2024 and 15,581 in 2025 [stock_2024] [stock_2025]. The last step is 72.3%. Momentum is strong, but early small-base growth must not be extrapolated as a forecast.

A clean BEV/PHEV retail-sales series was not located. TBC Capital reports electric first registrations of 340/315/955/1,886/4,225 in 2020–2024 and 5,255 in Jan–Sep 2025 [registrations_2025]. Customs recorded 5,216 EV imports in Jan–Aug 2025 [imports_2025]. These overlap and are not summed. PHEV and HEV registrations remain a diligence gap.

Applying EVS sensitivities of 18%, 30% and 42% annually for five years to end-2025 stock yields 35,646, 57,851 and 89,957 registered EVs at end-2030 [evs_model]. These are not official forecasts. The 2025 growth and EV exemption from the six-year import restriction support upside; re-export, competition and definition risk support caution.

ELVA’s commercial map showed 477 chargers, including 323 Tbilisi, 18 Batumi and 11 Kutaisi [elva_map]. This is not an official census and does not prove unique sites, ports or uptime. Tbilisi reported 130 of 198 municipal fast stations installed; the remainder is pipeline [chargers_tbilisi]. EcoCars claims 50+ stations in 12 cities [ecocars_network], while SOCAR opened a four-unit site in February 2026 [socar_station]. No charger-energy revenue is modelled.

Georgia’s overall registered fleet is old: 80.4% was over ten years, 13.8% five-to-ten, 3.2% two-to-five and 2% under two [stock_2025]. This is not the EV-age distribution. Rapid recent EV growth suggests a younger stock, while US-origin used and salvage vehicles add structural, battery and software complexity [registrations_2025]. Obtain VIN/model year before permanent capacity.

M1 inspection frequency tightens with age, while 2025 reforms strengthen centre oversight [autotest] [inspection_reform]. EVS should not represent itself as an inspection centre; it can sell pre-inspection rectification and evidence. The strongest B2B wedge is insurer/bodyshop/recovery HV isolation and custody for imported collision vehicles. Taxi, delivery and corporate fleets are interview targets; no fleet volume is booked.

From 15,581 registered EVs, EVS assumes 60% annual paid-service incidence and GEL2,400 addressable spend: GEL22,436,640 TAM. Applying 75% independent eligibility gives GEL16,827,480; 70% single-hub reach yields GEL11,779,236 SAM. Base 90-day SOM is GEL216,000 from 360 orders, 1.83% of annual SAM [evs_model].

Included: registered electric vehicles and EVS-addressable diagnostics, evidence and maintenance. Excluded: conventional hybrids, unverified PHEVs, customs inflow, inactive/re-export stock, charger energy, vehicle sales, inaccessible warranty work, buses, unsupported coding and pack opening. PHEV combustion work requires separate competence and market data.

Used-import/salvage owners and importers rank first; insurers/bodyshops/recovery second; taxi, delivery and corporate fleets third; out-of-warranty Tesla, Leaf and BYD owners fourth. Charging operators are referral partners. Fixed-price evidence and contracted uptime should lead; walk-ins and announced fleet pipelines are not a bankable base.

2025 customs flows were led by Tesla 3,522, Nissan 913 and BYD 740, followed by BMW 358, Volkswagen 197, Chevrolet 195, Ford 127, Porsche 98, Hyundai 97 and Hongqi 79 [models_2025]. Model 3/Y/S, Leaf, Qin Plus EV, Song Plus, Seagull, Bolt and ID.4 deserve first coverage. BMW totals include i3 REX, which must not be misclassified as BEV.

Tbilisi already has Tesla-focused specialists Autospace, Tesla Service Georgia, EVC and Tesla Fix, plus Evotek and E-motions [autospace] [tesla_service] [evc] [teslafix] [evotek] [emotions]. EVS cannot win as a generic repairer. Its wedge is audited multi-brand safety, calibrated battery/structure evidence, insurer custody and fleet SLAs. Mystery-shop capacity, price, warranty and comeback before site selection.

Tbilisi held 6,932 of 9,045 EVs at end-2024, 76.6% [stock_2024]. Compare one east-corridor site near Kakheti Highway/Orkhevi with one north-corridor site near Dighomi/Beliashvili. Imereti/Kutaisi (512 EVs) and Adjara/Batumi (387) were the largest non-capital clusters; use collection/mobile partners only after contracts [stock_2024].

The official six-year M1 import restriction exempts EVs from 1 April 2026 [age_ban]. Secondary legal guidance indicates import-duty and qualifying excise relief, but steering configuration matters and right-hand/converted EV excise is GEL3,000 [ev_tax_guide] [excise_2026]. Standard VAT is generally 18% [import_tariffs]. No cash purchase grant or parking benefit is booked; obtain a Revenue Service memo before marketing.

Enterprise Georgia describes accelerated depreciation, ten-year loss carry-forward and four free industrial zones [enterprise_tax]. A domestic repair hub is not assumed to qualify for FIZ/export treatment or any grant. Pilot economics book no tax holiday, subsidy or customs relief. Seek written project eligibility only after paid validation.

The model is nominal GEL before corporate income tax, VAT, financing and related-party charges. Obtain a dated memo on entity/branch form, 18% VAT and recoverability, corporate/small-business eligibility, payroll, withholding, transfer pricing, imported tools/parts, consumer invoicing and EV excise/customs by VIN [revenue_service] [import_tariffs]. Take deposits for imported parts and use short quote validity.

Georgia’s Labour Code and Occupational Safety law govern employment, risk prevention, training, PPE and worker information [labour_code] [osh_law]. EVS must define authorised, instructed and prohibited HV roles; document rescue, lifting and thermal-incident drills; verify medical/competence/insurance duties; and prohibit untrained staff from energised or damaged vehicles.

No public evidence located a standalone general vehicle-repair or automotive-HV licence; absence is not permission. Before lease, obtain written entity/activity, zoning, occupancy, lifts, electrical, fire, signage, refrigerant, waste-storage/transfer and technical-inspection boundaries from authorities and insurer [enterprise_georgia] [fire_regulation] [inspection_reform]. Partner terms must grant EVS stop-work, audit and data control.

Apply identify–isolate–lock–prove-dead, CAT-rated tools/PPE, key custody, signage, thermal monitoring and model-specific limits. Intrusive work needs two-person rescue and written competency. No live work or pack opening during the pilot [osh_law] [fire_regulation]. Obtain written labour, electrical and fire applicability; do not treat absence of a named licence as approval.

The Waste Management Code requires treatment or transfer to entitled persons and retains responsibility until recovery/disposal [waste_code]. Contract an authorised handler, use documented chain of custody and insurer/authority-approved off-site quarantine before accepting damaged packs. Map EPR and hazardous-transport documentation. No pack opening, module repair or on-site damaged-pack storage at launch.

No workshop-specific EV refrigerant credential was verified. Launch with non-invasive thermal and leak-indication diagnosis only. Circuit opening requires written environmental/OSH applicability, trained staff, recovery equipment, calibrated instruments, cylinder controls and lawful waste route [waste_code] [osh_law].

Use clear scope, price, limitations, custody, warranty/remedy and complaints documentation. VINs, identity, images, CCTV, telematics and diagnostic logs must follow lawful basis, minimisation, access, retention, security and cross-border assessment under Georgia’s personal-data law [data_law]. Unsupported coding, key or navigation work must be refused or referred.

Begin company-controlled inside one compliant Tbilisi partner site; do not sub-franchise. The agreement must govern brand/IP, customer ownership, data roles, pricing, QA audit, parts, safety authority, incident reporting, insurance, quarantine and termination. Permanent hub follows only after downside payback passes. Franchise requires 12 audited months and zero serious safety events.

Launch battery-health/pre-purchase evidence, Tesla/Leaf/BYD diagnosis, charging/thermal/12V, brakes/tyres/suspension, collision HV isolation, insurer reports and lawful connectivity triage. Add collection/night service only with contracts. Defer pack opening/module repair, refrigerant-circuit work and intrusive ADAS until OEM data, tools, competence, insurance, fire, waste and legal approvals pass.

Use two controlled bays, VIN pre-screen, Georgian/English customer authorisation, before/after evidence, calibrated tools, key/parts custody and EVS regional escalation. Keep low inventory; imported parts require deposits. Use approved off-site quarantine. Unsupported VINs receive inspection-only scope or refusal. Track safety, comeback, cycle time, utilisation, AOV and margin daily.

Cautious/base/high 90-day cases are 180/360/600 orders and GEL63,000/GEL216,000/GEL540,000 revenue. EBITDA is -GEL46,650/+GEL7,320/+GEL133,200. Base break-even is 337 orders [evs_model]. No permanent-site capex, incentive, pack-remanufacturing revenue, fleet announcement or charger-energy income is assumed. Permanent-hub downside payback must be at most 24 months.

The main risks are import/re-export confusion, BEV/PHEV/REX misclassification, US salvage and software/parts fragmentation, dense Tesla competition, battery fire/waste liability, charger-count overstatement, tax-policy change and GEL/imported-parts exposure. Controls are registry/VIN evidence, platform refusal rules, B2B differentiation, low inventory, written tax memos and approved quarantine/handler routes.

Days 0–25 reconcile the registry, approvals and two site options. Days 10–40 secure six counterparties and the top-25 VIN matrix. Days 25–45 train, drill and commission two controlled bays. Days 30–75 run paid jobs; approval requires 360. Days 50–85 convert 75 contracted monthly jobs. Day 90 chooses hub, continued partner validation or defer.

Continue only with at least 14,500 reconciled active passenger BEVs, 360 paid orders, 52% margin, positive EBITDA, below 3% comeback, zero serious HV/fire events, six counterparties, 75 contracted monthly jobs, 80% top-25 VIN coverage and complete entity/site/labour/electrical/fire/waste/consumer/data files. Hub requires ≤24-month downside payback; franchise requires 12 audited months [evs_model].

How many of 15,581 are active passenger BEVs by VIN, age and region? What PHEV stock is missing? Which US salvage histories, top-25 platforms and software/parts variants dominate? Which permits govern HV, lifts, refrigerants, damaged packs and waste? Which handler/quarantine route is insurable? What paid monthly volumes will six counterparties sign?

Primary laws, government and official portals were preferred. Geostat figures were used through clearly labelled reproductions where direct tables were not accessible. Stock, first registrations, imports, models, hybrids and charger measures were kept distinct. Every model output traces to the end-2025 stock fact and explicit EVS assumptions. Figures are nominal GEL; no incentive is booked.

Critical gaps are direct downloadable registry data, active/inactive status, BEV/PHEV/passenger split, EV age/VIN/owner distribution, audited charger uptime/ports, current tax treatment by configuration, independent capacity/quality and an approved traction-battery handler map. The report supports a reversible pilot, not unconditional capital.

The package includes a linked source registry with publisher, date where available, access date, URL, notes and role. Quantitative material claims cite IDs inline. Commercial sites evidence competition or infrastructure only and are not independently audited. EVS assumptions use [evs_model].

Go only to one two-bay, 90-day company-controlled Tbilisi pilot. Georgia’s EV stock is growing rapidly and highly concentrated, but at 15,581 vehicles it remains a validation market. Win through used-import, insurer and fleet evidence; do not enter as a generic Tesla shop, build a permanent hub, open packs or franchise before every gate passes.