Azerbaijan.

Conditional go for one 90-day, two-bay, company-controlled partner pilot in Baku; defer a permanent hub and franchise rollout. Azerbaijan reported 6,974 registered electric vehicles in May 2025, including 5,812 in Baku [stock_may_2025]. The larger strategic signal is 31,873 PHEV imports in Jan–Sep 2025, but this customs flow cannot be treated as active stock [imports_9m_2025]. EVS should validate a multi-powertrain Chinese-NEV and insurer niche without capitalising an unverified PHEV boom.

Audit Babek Avenue–Zigh against Ahmad Rajabli–Binagadi and open only one controlled partner site. Sell powertrain classification, battery/pre-purchase evidence, charging/thermal/12V, wear and insurer HV isolation. Require 300 paid orders, 50% margin, positive EBITDA, six counterparties, 60 monthly contracted jobs, 80% top-30 platform coverage and complete compliance before a hub [evs_model].

The register held 6,974 EVs and 83,351 hybrids in May 2025; Baku held 5,812 EVs [stock_may_2025]. EV stock had been 5,941 at end-2024 and 3,115 a year earlier [stock_2024]. Customs recorded 2,280 BEV imports in 2025, down 33%, while PHEV imports reached 31,873 in nine months [imports_2025] [imports_9m_2025]. Charging evidence rose from 430 EVSE at 195 sites in February to 608 units at 291 locations in May [charging_430] [charging_608].

Only the 6,974 registered-electric figure is the hard denominator. The public release does not prove passenger-only or active status, so a VIN extract remains mandatory. The 83,351 hybrid total does not split HEV, PHEV or EREV. Imports are customs flows and are never added to stock. BYD/Changan brand totals mix powertrains. EVSE, stations and locations are preserved as separate charging definitions.

State figures show 3,115 electric cars at the start of 2024, 5,941 at the start of 2025 and 6,974 by 27 May 2025 [stock_2024] [stock_may_2025]. The 2024 increase was 90.7%; the next five months added 17.4%. Small-base growth is not an official forecast.

No clean retail-registration series separating BEV/PHEV was found. Customs reported 3,027 BEVs in 2024, 2,280 in 2025 and 404 in Jan–Apr 2026 [imports_2024] [imports_2025] [imports_2026]. PHEV imports accelerated from 10,382 in 2024 to 31,873 in Jan–Sep 2025 [imports_9m_2025]. These measures overlap registrations and cannot be summed.

Applying EVS annual sensitivities of 15%, 25% and 35% for 5.59 years from May 2025 produces 15,233, 24,278 and 37,329 registered EVs at end-2030 [evs_model]. These are not official forecasts. Falling BEV imports and 2026 VAT support caution; Baku concentration, lower import values, charging growth and PHEV ecosystem support upside.

February 2025 evidence counted 430 EVSE at 195 stations [charging_430]; May public-discussion figures counted 608 units at 291 locations [charging_608]. The later series controls directionally, but neither proves live uptime. Commercial apps claim 500+ mapped/monitored stations and at least ten operators [plugpoint] [etap]. Connector mix includes CCS, GB/T, CHAdeMO, Type 1/2 and Tesla. No charger-energy revenue is modelled.

Azerbaijan’s overall passenger parc is old: 83.1% was at least ten years old in 2022 [fleet_age]. This is not the EV/PHEV age distribution. The new-energy stock is much younger and likely warranty-captured, but the grey-import surge creates classification, battery, thermal, software, collision and parts uncertainty. Obtain VIN/model-year/warranty status before permanent capacity.

Passenger technical inspection generally begins after four years, biennially until year ten and annually afterward [inspection]. EVS should provide pre-inspection rectification, not represent itself as the inspection authority. Baku’s Zigh depot houses 160 electric buses and its own repair centre [bus_depot]; bus revenue is excluded. Insurer/bodyshop/importer custody and corporate-fleet uptime are the immediate B2B targets.

From 6,974 registered EVs, EVS assumes 55% annual paid-service incidence and AZN1,800 addressable spend: AZN6,904,260 TAM. Applying 60% independent eligibility gives AZN4,142,556; 85% Baku reach yields AZN3,521,173 SAM. Base 90-day SOM is AZN165,000 from 300 orders, 4.69% of annual SAM [evs_model]. The unverified PHEV pool is excluded.

Included: registered electric vehicles and EVS-addressable diagnostics/evidence/maintenance. Excluded: unsegmented hybrids, customs flows, buses, charger energy, vehicle sales, inaccessible warranty work, unsupported coding and pack opening. PHEV HV/thermal diagnosis may be piloted after VIN confirmation; ICE/fuel work stays with an approved partner.

Grey-import PHEV/EREV and BEV owners rank first; insurers/bodyshops/importers/recovery second; out-of-warranty Tesla and Chinese-NEV owners third; taxi/corporate/delivery fleets fourth. Charging operators are referral partners. Lead with fixed-price classification/evidence and contracted uptime, not generic walk-in repair.

The market shifted sharply toward BYD, Changan/Nevo/Deepal and Li Auto in 2025 [models_2025]. BYD stock reached 19,799 and Tesla 1,144 by 1 January 2026, but BYD mixes BEV and PHEV [fleet_2026] [tesla_2026]. First coverage should include BYD DM-i/EV, Nevo/Deepal/IDD and Tesla. Every VIN must be classified as BEV, PHEV, EREV or HEV before scope.

BYD Motors Baku, BYD Absheron and Changan Azerbaijan provide official warranty, parts and service [byd_service] [byd_absheron] [changan_service]. Electrify links charging and BYD distribution [electrify]. Tesla documentation is available, but no local Tesla centre is evidenced by the official page [tesla_service_info]. EVS must win grey imports, cross-brand evidence, insurers and fleets—not official warranty work.

Baku held 5,812 of 6,974 registered EVs in May 2025, 83.3% [stock_may_2025]. Audit Babek Avenue–Zigh for bodyshop/fleet/import access and Ahmad Rajabli–Binagadi for dealer/service catchment; select one. Absheron/Khirdalan/Sumgayit is a collection zone. Ganja and regional corridors receive partner coverage only after Baku gates; no regional EV stock is invented.

Late-2025 sources conflict: an October draft proposed another EV VAT exemption, but November customs and tax officials said imported passenger EVs/hybrids would face VAT from 2026 [vat_2026] [vat_local]. The report follows the later official statements and books no vehicle VAT relief. Local-production and charger relief are not consumer cash grants. Obtain a dated Customs/Tax memo before pricing.

One-stop registration is available [one_stop]. Industrial-park residents can receive ten-year profit/property/land and qualifying equipment relief [industrial_parks], while qualifying strategic projects can receive seven-year investment-certificate benefits [investment_cert]. A Baku repair pilot is not assumed eligible. Economics include no grant, tax holiday, customs or local-production benefit.

The model is nominal AZN before VAT, corporate income tax, financing and related-party charges. Obtain a dated memo on entity/branch form, standard VAT, corporate/simplified regimes, payroll, withholding, transfer pricing, imported tools/parts, invoicing, PHEV/EV classification and incentive eligibility [tax_guide]. Quote imported parts briefly and take deposits.

The Occupational Safety law establishes organisational, technical, sanitary and preventive controls across enterprises [osh_law]. EVS should define authorised, instructed and prohibited HV roles; document rescue, lifting and thermal-incident drills; verify medical/competence/insurance duties; and prevent untrained staff from energised or damaged vehicles.

No standalone public automotive-HV technician licence was located; absence is not permission. Before lease, obtain written activity, zoning, occupancy, lift, electrical, fire, signage, refrigerant, waste, hazardous-transport and inspection-boundary applicability [one_stop] [environment_laws] [inspection]. Partner terms require EVS operational control, audit/data rights and stop-work authority.

Apply identify–isolate–lock–prove-dead, CAT-rated tools/PPE, key custody, signage, thermal monitoring and platform-specific limits. Intrusive work requires two-person rescue and written competency. No live work or pack opening during the pilot [osh_law]. Secure written electrical, fire and insurer applicability before accepting damaged or energised vehicles.

Map traction batteries, coolant, oils, pyrotechnics and contaminated materials against environmental and dangerous-goods rules [environment_laws] [dangerous_goods]. Contract authorised handlers/carriers, maintain custody records and use authority/insurer-approved off-site quarantine. No pack opening, module repair or on-site damaged-pack storage at launch.

No EV heat-pump/refrigerant workshop credential was verified. Launch non-invasive thermal and leak-indication diagnosis only. Circuit opening requires written environmental/OSH applicability, trained staff, recovery equipment, calibrated instruments, cylinder controls and lawful waste route [environment_laws] [osh_law].

Use Azerbaijani/Russian clear scope, price, limitations, warranty/remedy and complaints documents. VIN, identity, CCTV, images, telematics and diagnostic logs require consent/lawful basis, security, retention, information-system registration analysis and transfer controls [data_laws] [data_guide]. Unsupported coding/key/navigation services must be refused or referred.

Begin company-controlled inside one Baku partner site; do not sub-franchise. Govern brand/IP, customer ownership, data roles, pricing, QA audit, parts, safety authority, incident reporting, insurance, quarantine and termination. Permanent hub follows downside payback. Franchise requires 12 audited months, positive economics and zero serious events.

Launch powertrain classification/pre-purchase evidence, battery-health, charging/thermal/12V, brakes/tyres/suspension, collision HV isolation, insurer reports and PHEV HV diagnosis. Add fleet collection/night service after contracts. Defer ICE/fuel work, pack opening/module repair, refrigerant and invasive ADAS until competence, tools, insurance, fire, waste and legal gates pass.

Use two controlled bays, VIN pre-screen, bilingual authorisation, before/after evidence, calibrated tools, key/parts custody and EVS regional escalation. Stock only wear/12V parts; imported components require deposits. Use approved off-site quarantine. Unsupported platforms receive inspection-only scope or refusal. Track safety, comeback, cycle time, utilisation, AOV and margin daily.

Cautious/base/high 90-day cases are 150/300/500 orders and AZN42,000/AZN165,000/AZN425,000 revenue. EBITDA is -AZN41,940/+AZN2,500/+AZN108,000. Base break-even is 291 orders [evs_model]. No hub capex, incentive, pack-remanufacturing, bus, unverified PHEV-stock or charger-energy revenue is assumed. Hub downside payback must be at most 24 months.

Main risks are customs flows mistaken for active stock, HEV/PHEV/EREV/BEV misclassification, OEM warranty capture, VAT volatility, Chinese-platform software/parts fragmentation, battery fire/waste custody, charger uptime and imported-part exposure. Controls are a VIN registry, top-30 matrix, B2B evidence, written tax/compliance memos, low inventory and approved quarantine/handlers.

Days 0–25 reconcile registry, approvals, tax and two sites. Days 10–40 secure six counterparties and top-30 platform matrix. Days 25–45 train, drill and commission two bays. Days 30–75 run paid jobs; approval requires 300. Days 50–85 convert 60 contracted monthly jobs. Day 90 chooses hub, continued validation or defer.

Continue only with at least 6,500 active passenger BEVs plus a separate verified PHEV/EREV stock, 300 paid orders, 50% margin, positive EBITDA, below 3% comeback, zero serious HV/fire events, six counterparties, 60 contracted monthly jobs, 80% top-30 platform coverage and complete compliance. Hub requires ≤24-month downside payback; franchise requires 12 audited months [evs_model].

How many active passenger BEVs, PHEVs and EREVs exist by VIN, age, region and owner? Which top-30 platforms are grey versus official warranty? What current VAT/customs treatment applies to each powertrain and part? Which permits govern HV, lifts, refrigerants, batteries and transport? Which handler/quarantine route is insurable? What monthly jobs will six counterparties sign?

Government, laws, official agencies and attributable committee/authority figures were preferred. Secondary reproductions are labelled where direct datasets were inaccessible. Registered stock, hybrid stock, BEV/PHEV imports, brand totals, buses and charging units/sites were kept distinct. All model outputs trace to the 6,974 stock fact and explicit EVS assumptions. Figures are nominal AZN; no incentive is booked.

Critical gaps are a downloadable active registry, passenger/class split, HEV/PHEV/EREV split, EV age/VIN/owner distribution, audited charger uptime/connectors, enacted 2026 tax text, independent capacity/quality and licensed traction-battery handlers. The report supports a reversible pilot, not unconditional capital.

The package includes a linked source registry with publisher, date where available, access date, URL, notes and role. Material quantitative claims cite source IDs inline. Commercial sites evidence competition/infrastructure only and are not independently audited. EVS assumptions use [evs_model].

Go only to one two-bay, 90-day company-controlled Baku pilot. The verified BEV market is small but concentrated; the PHEV surge could transform service demand but remains an import flow, not stock. Win with powertrain classification, grey-import and insurer evidence. Do not build a hub, open packs or franchise before every data, demand, economics, compliance and safety gate passes.