Armenia
EVS Armenia EV Service Centre Market Entry
Decision-grade Armenia assessment separating the administrative electric class, pure BEVs, series and parallel hybrids, stock and import flows, charging points and announced stations, with an auditable Yerevan serviceable-pool model and EAEU/VAT/compliance gates.
Minimum registered administrative electric-class stock at end-August 2025; includes some series hybrids.
Reported minimum points; no live connector, access, power or uptime audit.
22,650 × 88% light-passenger proxy × 98% active × Yerevan concentration × 45% reach × 1.15 events.
Base simple payback on AMD7.5m reversible partner-pilot capex.
The verdict in full
- Conditional go for a capped Yerevan partner pilot. The last exact anchor is more than 22,650 administrative electric-class vehicles at end-August 2025. [civilnet_stock]
- Definition control is fundamental. Armenia includes some series hybrids inside the electric class; a pure BEV split is unavailable. [civilnet_definitions]
- The model yields 22,463 national TAM and 3,637 Yerevan SAM jobs annually. These are EVS assumption-led, not official demand.
- Hold pack work and standalone/franchise capex until all evidence, compliance and paid-demand gates clear.
Board Decision
Authorise up to AMD7,500,000 reversible capex for diligence and a 90-day two-bay partner pilot only after gates clear. Base steady-state economics are 480 jobs, AMD21,600,000 revenue, AMD2,592,000 EBITDA and 2.89-year payback; all are EVS assumptions.
Decision Summary
| Dimension | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Network entry | CONDITIONAL GO — Yerevan partner pilot | Rapid electric-class growth and service fragmentation justify a controlled evidence pilot. |
| Standalone centre / area franchise | NO-GO now | Pure BEV/series-hybrid split, supported VINs, independent reach and recurring paid demand remain unaudited. |
| Traction-battery work | HOLD | No pack opening, module/cell work, removal, storage or damaged-battery custody until written approvals and lawful route. |
| Regional coverage | Collection/clinic only | Test Gyumri, Vanadzor and corridors after Yerevan proof; no fixed regional capex. |
- Decision
- CONDITIONAL GO — Yerevan partner pilot
- Reason
- Rapid electric-class growth and service fragmentation justify a controlled evidence pilot.
- Decision
- NO-GO now
- Reason
- Pure BEV/series-hybrid split, supported VINs, independent reach and recurring paid demand remain unaudited.
- Decision
- HOLD
- Reason
- No pack opening, module/cell work, removal, storage or damaged-battery custody until written approvals and lawful route.
- Decision
- Collection/clinic only
- Reason
- Test Gyumri, Vanadzor and corridors after Yerevan proof; no fixed regional capex.
Market size
More than 22,650 administrative electric-class vehicles were registered by end-August 2025, but the pure-BEV/series-hybrid split is unavailable. Import flows and quotas are not added. [civilnet_stock] [civilnet_definitions]
Armenia electric-category observations
Stock and flows remain definition-sensitive; series hybrids may sit inside the administrative electric class.
Market KPIs
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Registered vehicles | 953,965 | vehicles | 1 Sep 2025 | All classes [armenpress_parc] |
| Registered administrative electric class | 22,650 | vehicles, minimum | End-Aug 2025 | Includes some series hybrids; exact BEV split unavailable [civilnet_stock] [civilnet_definitions] |
| New administrative electric registrations | 8,646 | vehicles | Jan–Aug 2025 | Flow; 27% of newly registered vehicles [civilnet_stock] |
| Electric-category fleet under three years old | 55 | percent | Jun-2024 observation | Age-mix signal [civilnet_stock] |
| Electric cars imported | 14,888 | cars | 1 Jan–14 Oct 2025 | Import flow; separate from registrations [src_2025_imports] |
| Electric vehicles imported | 11,793 | vehicles | 2024 | All relevant electric classes in minister series [src_2025_imports] |
| Yerevan registered vehicles | 343,220 | vehicles | 1 Sep 2025 | 35.98% national all-vehicle proxy [armenpress_parc] |
| 2026 EAEU duty-free quota | 15,000 | vehicles | 2026 | Eligible codes include series hybrids; not stock [eec_quota] [economy_quota] |
- Value
- 953,965
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 1 Sep 2025
- Evidence
- All classes [armenpress_parc]
- Value
- 22,650
- Unit
- vehicles, minimum
- Period
- End-Aug 2025
- Evidence
- Includes some series hybrids; exact BEV split unavailable [civilnet_stock] [civilnet_definitions]
- Value
- 8,646
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- Jan–Aug 2025
- Evidence
- Flow; 27% of newly registered vehicles [civilnet_stock]
- Value
- 55
- Unit
- percent
- Period
- Jun-2024 observation
- Evidence
- Age-mix signal [civilnet_stock]
- Value
- 14,888
- Unit
- cars
- Period
- 1 Jan–14 Oct 2025
- Evidence
- Import flow; separate from registrations [src_2025_imports]
- Value
- 11,793
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2024
- Evidence
- All relevant electric classes in minister series [src_2025_imports]
- Value
- 343,220
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 1 Sep 2025
- Evidence
- 35.98% national all-vehicle proxy [armenpress_parc]
- Value
- 15,000
- Unit
- vehicles
- Period
- 2026
- Evidence
- Eligible codes include series hybrids; not stock [eec_quota] [economy_quota]
Definition-sensitive electrification observations
| Period | BEV | PHEV (unavailable) | BEV used in model | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 270 | — | 270 | Approximate administrative electric-category registrations [civilnet_stock]. |
| 2023 imports | 9,635 | — | 9,635 | Annual import flow, not stock [src_2025_imports]. |
| 2024 imports | 11,793 | — | 11,793 | Annual electric-class import flow [src_2025_imports]. |
| End-Aug 2025 stock | — | — | 22,650 | Administrative electric-class registered stock; BEV/series-hybrid split unavailable [civilnet_stock] [civilnet_definitions]. |
| Jan–Aug 2025 registrations | — | — | 8,646 | Registration flow; not added to stock [civilnet_stock]. |
- BEV
- 270
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 270
- Scope
- Approximate administrative electric-category registrations [civilnet_stock].
- BEV
- 9,635
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 9,635
- Scope
- Annual import flow, not stock [src_2025_imports].
- BEV
- 11,793
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 11,793
- Scope
- Annual electric-class import flow [src_2025_imports].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 22,650
- Scope
- Administrative electric-class registered stock; BEV/series-hybrid split unavailable [civilnet_stock] [civilnet_definitions].
- BEV
- —
- PHEV (unavailable)
- —
- BEV used in model
- 8,646
- Scope
- Registration flow; not added to stock [civilnet_stock].
Definition control
Administrative electric stock, pure BEVs, series hybrids, parallel hybrids, imports, registrations, quotas and charging points remain separate.
Definition reconciliation
| Term | Included | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Administrative electric class | Core service-planning anchor | More than 22,650 registrations; includes pure BEVs and some series hybrids. |
| Series hybrid | Inside administrative electric class where ICE only generates electricity | Cannot be separated; requires ICE/emissions service routing beyond BEV scope. |
| Parallel hybrid/PHEV | Context only | Separate category; current comparable stock not located and not added. |
| Imports | Adoption and parts signals | Flows by customs class; never added to registered stock. |
| Charging points | Infrastructure context | More than 300; not a live connector/location/power/access/uptime audit. |
| Quota | Policy context | Maximum eligible imports under specified codes; neither imports achieved nor stock. |
- Included
- Core service-planning anchor
- Use
- More than 22,650 registrations; includes pure BEVs and some series hybrids.
- Included
- Inside administrative electric class where ICE only generates electricity
- Use
- Cannot be separated; requires ICE/emissions service routing beyond BEV scope.
- Included
- Context only
- Use
- Separate category; current comparable stock not located and not added.
- Included
- Adoption and parts signals
- Use
- Flows by customs class; never added to registered stock.
- Included
- Infrastructure context
- Use
- More than 300; not a live connector/location/power/access/uptime audit.
- Included
- Policy context
- Use
- Maximum eligible imports under specified codes; neither imports achieved nor stock.
EVS scenarios to end-2030
Five-year 10%, 15% and 25% growth cases are planning ranges, not official forecasts. Conflicting 42,000 and 100,000 policy targets remain separately labelled.
EVS administrative electric-class scenarios to end-2030
10% / 15% / 25% CAGR for five years from 22,650; not official forecasts.
Five-year EV planning scenarios
| Scenario | Annual Growth Pct | Planning stock end-2030 | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 10 | 36,478 | Quota expiry, affordability and service/infrastructure friction slow growth; EVS scenario. |
| Base | 15 | 45,557 | Continued Chinese-brand/import growth with moderated base effects; EVS scenario. |
| High | 25 | 69,122 | Sustained incentives, price compression and charging rollout; upside stress case. |
- Annual Growth Pct
- 10
- Planning stock end-2030
- 36,478
- Interpretation
- Quota expiry, affordability and service/infrastructure friction slow growth; EVS scenario.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 15
- Planning stock end-2030
- 45,557
- Interpretation
- Continued Chinese-brand/import growth with moderated base effects; EVS scenario.
- Annual Growth Pct
- 25
- Planning stock end-2030
- 69,122
- Interpretation
- Sustained incentives, price compression and charging rollout; upside stress case.
Charging requires a field audit
More than 300 points were reported in September 2025. Historical counts and private pipeline are kept separate. [civilnet_stock] [mdpi_yerevan]
Charging evidence by incompatible measure
Reported points, historic public points, pipeline stations and EVS-audited locations are separate.
Charging evidence and unknowns
| Metric | Value | Unit | Period | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charging points | 300 | points, minimum | Reported Sep-2025 | More than 300; over half in Yerevan according to source; no live audit [civilnet_stock]. |
| Installed charging points | 198 | points | Jan-2024 | Historical directory inventory: 159 regular and 39 fast [mdpi_yerevan]. |
| Publicly accessible points | 177 | points | Jan-2024 | Historical public subset; 68 in Yerevan [mdpi_yerevan]. |
| Auto Gallery fast stations planned | 90 | stations | Initial 2026 plan | Private pipeline; first announced for July, exclude until commissioned [autogallery_charge]. |
| EVS field-audited locations | 0 | locations | Pre-entry | Connector, power, access, payment and uptime audit not completed. |
- Value
- 300
- Unit
- points, minimum
- Period
- Reported Sep-2025
- Status
- More than 300; over half in Yerevan according to source; no live audit [civilnet_stock].
- Value
- 198
- Unit
- points
- Period
- Jan-2024
- Status
- Historical directory inventory: 159 regular and 39 fast [mdpi_yerevan].
- Value
- 177
- Unit
- points
- Period
- Jan-2024
- Status
- Historical public subset; 68 in Yerevan [mdpi_yerevan].
- Value
- 90
- Unit
- stations
- Period
- Initial 2026 plan
- Status
- Private pipeline; first announced for July, exclude until commissioned [autogallery_charge].
- Value
- 0
- Unit
- locations
- Period
- Pre-entry
- Status
- Connector, power, access, payment and uptime audit not completed.
Parc Age Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Vehicle parc and service demand
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wider national parc | 953,965 | vehicles | Large general chassis/HVAC pool; not electric stock [armenpress_parc]. |
| Yerevan all-vehicle concentration | 35.978 | percent | Capital concentration supports a single pilot; proxy [armenpress_parc]. |
| Yerevan light-passenger share | 88 | percent | Used as class-eligibility proxy; not national electric-class split [mdpi_yerevan]. |
| Electric category under three years old | 55 | percent | Young fleet favours diagnostics, tyres, charging and evidence before heavy age repairs [civilnet_stock]. |
| Current official average electric age | — | years | Not available; acquire VIN year, mileage, powertrain and warranty extract. |
- Value
- 953,965
- Unit
- vehicles
- Implication
- Large general chassis/HVAC pool; not electric stock [armenpress_parc].
- Value
- 35.978
- Unit
- percent
- Implication
- Capital concentration supports a single pilot; proxy [armenpress_parc].
- Value
- 88
- Unit
- percent
- Implication
- Used as class-eligibility proxy; not national electric-class split [mdpi_yerevan].
- Value
- 55
- Unit
- percent
- Implication
- Young fleet favours diagnostics, tyres, charging and evidence before heavy age repairs [civilnet_stock].
- Value
- —
- Unit
- years
- Implication
- Not available; acquire VIN year, mileage, powertrain and warranty extract.
Transparent serviceable-pool model
Sourced facts and EVS assumptions are separated; executable SOM stays zero until gates clear.
TAM, SAM and executable SOM
Assumption-led jobs/year; current SOM is zero.
Sizing assumptions
| Assumption | Value | Unit | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative electric-class stock | 22,650 | vehicles | Sourced minimum [civilnet_stock]. |
| Passenger/light eligibility | 88 | percent | Yerevan wider-parc light-passenger share used as proxy [mdpi_yerevan]. |
| Active/available factor | 98 | percent | EVS assumption. |
| Annual service events | 1.15 | events/vehicle | EVS scoped-service assumption. |
| Average repair order | 45,000 | AMD/job | EVS VAT-exclusive assumption. |
| Yerevan concentration | 35.978 | percent | 343,220 / 953,965 all-vehicle proxy [armenpress_parc]. |
| Independent reach | 45 | percent | EVS assumption after warranty/OEM/unsupported exclusions. |
- Value
- 22,650
- Unit
- vehicles
- Basis
- Sourced minimum [civilnet_stock].
- Value
- 88
- Unit
- percent
- Basis
- Yerevan wider-parc light-passenger share used as proxy [mdpi_yerevan].
- Value
- 98
- Unit
- percent
- Basis
- EVS assumption.
- Value
- 1.15
- Unit
- events/vehicle
- Basis
- EVS scoped-service assumption.
- Value
- 45,000
- Unit
- AMD/job
- Basis
- EVS VAT-exclusive assumption.
- Value
- 35.978
- Unit
- percent
- Basis
- 343,220 / 953,965 all-vehicle proxy [armenpress_parc].
- Value
- 45
- Unit
- percent
- Basis
- EVS assumption after warranty/OEM/unsupported exclusions.
TAM / SAM / SOM
| Layer | Vehicles | Jobs Per Year | Revenue ALL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAM | 19,533 | 22,463 | 1,010,835,000 | Modelled active passenger/light administrative electric class nationally; not pure BEV TAM. |
| Yerevan core | 7,028 | 8,082 | 363,690,000 | All-vehicle concentration proxy before independent reach. |
| SAM | 3,163 | 3,637 | 163,665,000 | 45% independent-reach assumption within Yerevan core. |
- Vehicles
- 19,533
- Jobs Per Year
- 22,463
- Revenue ALL
- 1,010,835,000
- Status
- Modelled active passenger/light administrative electric class nationally; not pure BEV TAM.
- Vehicles
- 7,028
- Jobs Per Year
- 8,082
- Revenue ALL
- 363,690,000
- Status
- All-vehicle concentration proxy before independent reach.
- Vehicles
- 3,163
- Jobs Per Year
- 3,637
- Revenue ALL
- 163,665,000
- Status
- 45% independent-reach assumption within Yerevan core.
Segments Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Customer segments
| Segment | Need | Priority |
|---|---|---|
| Out-of-warranty pure-BEV owners | Diagnostics, battery-health evidence, charging, thermal and 12V faults | Highest after BEV VIN verification. |
| Series-hybrid owners | Integrated generator/electric-drive diagnosis | Separate whitelist and emissions/ICE competence; never marketed as BEV-only. |
| Chinese-brand owners | Lawful software/tool access, parts navigation and evidence | High; supported top-20 VINs only. |
| Used-import buyers | Pre-purchase scan, battery/charging evidence and import-condition triage | High; no capacity/value guarantee. |
| Parallel hybrid/PHEV owners | Powertrain-integrated service | Research only until exact stock and tool scope are audited. |
- Need
- Diagnostics, battery-health evidence, charging, thermal and 12V faults
- Priority
- Highest after BEV VIN verification.
- Need
- Integrated generator/electric-drive diagnosis
- Priority
- Separate whitelist and emissions/ICE competence; never marketed as BEV-only.
- Need
- Lawful software/tool access, parts navigation and evidence
- Priority
- High; supported top-20 VINs only.
- Need
- Pre-purchase scan, battery/charging evidence and import-condition triage
- Priority
- High; no capacity/value guarantee.
- Need
- Powertrain-integrated service
- Priority
- Research only until exact stock and tool scope are audited.
Fleet segments
| Segment | Entry Product | Evidence Gate |
|---|---|---|
| Taxi/ride-hail | Scheduled scan, tyres/brakes and fast triage | One fleet LOI and paid trial; no fleet count assumed. |
| Corporate fleets | Collection, uptime evidence and preventive bundle | Supported VIN list and one paid contract. |
| Delivery/light commercial | Downtime SLA and chassis/thermal care | M1/N1 class and payload/use audit. |
| Dealer/importer overflow | PDI evidence and non-warranty overflow | Written data, warranty and liability boundary. |
| Public fleets | Tendered inspection/maintenance evidence | Procurement-specific; no award assumed. |
- Entry Product
- Scheduled scan, tyres/brakes and fast triage
- Evidence Gate
- One fleet LOI and paid trial; no fleet count assumed.
- Entry Product
- Collection, uptime evidence and preventive bundle
- Evidence Gate
- Supported VIN list and one paid contract.
- Entry Product
- Downtime SLA and chassis/thermal care
- Evidence Gate
- M1/N1 class and payload/use audit.
- Entry Product
- PDI evidence and non-warranty overflow
- Evidence Gate
- Written data, warranty and liability boundary.
- Entry Product
- Tendered inspection/maintenance evidence
- Evidence Gate
- Procurement-specific; no award assumed.
Brands Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Priority brands — no audited market shares located
| Technology | Brand | Units | Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative electric import flow | BYD | 1,848 | — | Early-2025 flow, not stock [brands_imports]. |
| BEV import flow | Tesla | 885 | — | Early-2025 flow; no authorised local service inferred [brands_imports] [tesla_findus]. |
| BEV import flow | Chevrolet | 728 | — | Early-2025 flow; likely used/imported Bolt-family relevance [brands_imports]. |
| Series hybrid / EREV | Li Auto | 536 | — | Early-2025 flow; powertrain definition requires separate service scope [brands_imports]. |
| BEV | Volkswagen / Zeekr / XPeng and long tail | — | — | Visible market presence; exact stock unavailable [civilnet_stock] [autogallery_models]. |
- Brand
- BYD
- Units
- 1,848
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Early-2025 flow, not stock [brands_imports].
- Brand
- Tesla
- Units
- 885
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Early-2025 flow; no authorised local service inferred [brands_imports] [tesla_findus].
- Brand
- Chevrolet
- Units
- 728
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Early-2025 flow; likely used/imported Bolt-family relevance [brands_imports].
- Brand
- Li Auto
- Units
- 536
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Early-2025 flow; powertrain definition requires separate service scope [brands_imports].
- Brand
- Volkswagen / Zeekr / XPeng and long tail
- Units
- —
- Share of H1 2026 BEVs (%)
- —
- Source
- Visible market presence; exact stock unavailable [civilnet_stock] [autogallery_models].
Priority models
| Brand | Model | Powertrain | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYD | Song Plus / Sea Lion / Tang and imported families | BEV/series/parallel variants | Verify VIN-level powertrain; model name alone is insufficient [autogallery_models]. |
| Tesla | Model 3 / Model Y | BEV | Common imports; security, parts and authorised coverage require live verification. |
| Chevrolet | Bolt EV / EUV and imports | BEV | Used-import battery campaign/history checks are essential. |
| Li Auto | L-series | Series hybrid / EREV | Administrative electric classification but includes ICE generator; separate competence. |
| Zeekr / XPeng / Avatr / Leapmotor | Multiple Chinese imports | BEV/EREV | Fast-changing long tail; supported top-20 VIN and tool audit. |
- Model
- Song Plus / Sea Lion / Tang and imported families
- Powertrain
- BEV/series/parallel variants
- Signal
- Verify VIN-level powertrain; model name alone is insufficient [autogallery_models].
- Model
- Model 3 / Model Y
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Common imports; security, parts and authorised coverage require live verification.
- Model
- Bolt EV / EUV and imports
- Powertrain
- BEV
- Signal
- Used-import battery campaign/history checks are essential.
- Model
- L-series
- Powertrain
- Series hybrid / EREV
- Signal
- Administrative electric classification but includes ICE generator; separate competence.
- Model
- Multiple Chinese imports
- Powertrain
- BEV/EREV
- Signal
- Fast-changing long tail; supported top-20 VIN and tool audit.
Competitors Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Competitor map
| Competitor | Type | Footprint | Threat | Response |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official OEM networks | Authorised Toyota/VW/BMW/Mercedes and others | Yerevan | Warranty, parts and secure diagnostics | Non-warranty supported VINs, evidence and overflow only. |
| Auto Gallery | Official importer / service / charging | Yerevan + planned national charging | Integrated vehicle, warranty and infrastructure offer | Partner/referral first; avoid warranty conflict. |
- Type
- Authorised Toyota/VW/BMW/Mercedes and others
- Footprint
- Yerevan
- Threat
- Warranty, parts and secure diagnostics
- Response
- Non-warranty supported VINs, evidence and overflow only.
- Type
- Official importer / service / charging
- Footprint
- Yerevan + planned national charging
- Threat
- Integrated vehicle, warranty and infrastructure offer
- Response
- Partner/referral first; avoid warranty conflict.
Regions Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Priority regions
| Rank | Region | Rationale | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yerevan industrial/commercial fringe | 343,220 registered vehicles, 35.98% of national parc; largest charging and importer concentration [armenpress_parc] [civilnet_stock]. | Two-bay partner pilot plus collection. |
- Region
- Yerevan industrial/commercial fringe
- Rationale
- 343,220 registered vehicles, 35.98% of national parc; largest charging and importer concentration [armenpress_parc] [civilnet_stock].
- Mode
- Two-bay partner pilot plus collection.
Incentives Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Consumer incentives
| Instrument | Status | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 VAT exemption | Active for listed electric-motor codes; Feb–Dec limited to vehicles made after 31 Dec 2023 | Confirm HS code, production date, import/sale and documentation; no EVS benefit modelled [armenpress_vat]. |
| 2026 EAEU customs-duty quota | 15,000 qualifying vehicles; national allocation 12,000 other / 3,000 official dealers | Quota/code/residency/transfer restrictions apply; not automatic or pure-BEV-only [eec_quota] [economy_quota]. |
- Status
- Active for listed electric-motor codes; Feb–Dec limited to vehicles made after 31 Dec 2023
- Implication
- Confirm HS code, production date, import/sale and documentation; no EVS benefit modelled [armenpress_vat].
- Status
- 15,000 qualifying vehicles; national allocation 12,000 other / 3,000 official dealers
- Implication
- Quota/code/residency/transfer restrictions apply; not automatic or pure-BEV-only [eec_quota] [economy_quota].
Business incentives
| Instrument | Status | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Dealer quota allocation | 3,000 slots require direct OEM agreement, factory warranty/post-warranty/software and closed service site | Relevant only to an OEM-authorised importer model; EVS pilot assumes no allocation [economy_quota]. |
| National electric-mobility programmes | GEF/Environment Ministry convening and investment development | Programme/call-specific; no grant assumed [environment_conference]. |
- Status
- 3,000 slots require direct OEM agreement, factory warranty/post-warranty/software and closed service site
- Action
- Relevant only to an OEM-authorised importer model; EVS pilot assumes no allocation [economy_quota].
- Status
- GEF/Environment Ministry convening and investment development
- Action
- Programme/call-specific; no grant assumed [environment_conference].
Tax Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Tax and customs baseline
| Tax | Rate | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| VAT | 20% standard | Model excludes VAT; verify registration, deductibility and EV-specific vehicle relief [tax_code] [armenpress_vat]. |
| Profit tax | 18% standard resident rate | Official service gateway; model is pre-tax [hartak_tax]. |
- Rate
- 20% standard
- Treatment
- Model excludes VAT; verify registration, deductibility and EV-specific vehicle relief [tax_code] [armenpress_vat].
- Rate
- 18% standard resident rate
- Treatment
- Official service gateway; model is pre-tax [hartak_tax].
Licensing Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Licensing path
| Step | Evidence | Gate |
|---|---|---|
| — | Entity extract, activity codes, beneficial ownership, tax and cash-register setup [business_registry] [src]. | Entity/activity registration |
| — | Written determination for each planned activity [elicense]. | Licence/notification check |
- Evidence
- Entity extract, activity codes, beneficial ownership, tax and cash-register setup [business_registry] [src].
- Gate
- Entity/activity registration
- Evidence
- Written determination for each planned activity [elicense].
- Gate
- Licence/notification check
Labour and safety obligations
| Requirement | Owner | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Employment/payroll setup | HR/legal | Written contracts, digital registration, hours, leave and payroll. |
| Risk assessment | Workshop manager | Electrical, lifting, thermal, chemical, ergonomic, rescue and evacuation hazards [labour_code]. |
- Owner
- HR/legal
- Control
- Written contracts, digital registration, hours, leave and payroll.
- Owner
- Workshop manager
- Control
- Electrical, lifting, thermal, chemical, ergonomic, rescue and evacuation hazards [labour_code].
Hv Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
High-voltage controls
| Control | Standard | Proof |
|---|---|---|
| Powertrain/VIN whitelist | — | — |
| De-energisation | — | — |
| HV zone | — | — |
| Competence matrix | — | — |
| Quarantine triage | — | — |
| Emergency plan | — | — |
| Audit trail | — | — |
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
- Standard
- —
- Proof
- —
Battery Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Battery and waste routes
| Stream | Route | Status |
|---|---|---|
| — | Non-invasive diagnostics only. | — |
| — | Remote triage, evacuation and specialist referral. | — |
- Route
- Non-invasive diagnostics only.
- Status
- —
- Route
- Remote triage, evacuation and specialist referral.
- Status
- —
Service portfolio
Launch evidence, diagnostics and maintenance with powertrain/VIN routing; prohibit pack opening and battery custody.
Recommended service portfolio
| Phase | Service | Scope | Margin Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch | Powertrain/VIN-classified diagnostic scan | — | — |
| Launch | Battery-health / pre-purchase evidence | — | — |
| Launch | Tyres, brakes, steering, suspension, alignment | — | — |
| Launch | HVAC / thermal / 12V | — | — |
| Launch | Fleet collection / regional clinics | — | — |
| Later gate | Pack removal/module work | — | — |
- Service
- Powertrain/VIN-classified diagnostic scan
- Scope
- —
- Margin Role
- —
- Service
- Battery-health / pre-purchase evidence
- Scope
- —
- Margin Role
- —
- Service
- Tyres, brakes, steering, suspension, alignment
- Scope
- —
- Margin Role
- —
- Service
- HVAC / thermal / 12V
- Scope
- —
- Margin Role
- —
- Service
- Fleet collection / regional clinics
- Scope
- —
- Margin Role
- —
- Service
- Pack removal/module work
- Scope
- —
- Margin Role
- —
Operating Model Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Operating model
| Element | Recommendation | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Format | Two-bay Yerevan partner pilot; no standalone lease. | — |
| Territory | No exclusivity until 12 months of verified demand/compliance. | — |
| Staffing | One HV lead plus one technician; partner reception/collection. | — |
| Powertrain routing | Separate pure BEV, series-hybrid and parallel-hybrid SOPs. | — |
| Commercial | Menu-priced evidence products; fleet SLA after proof. | — |
| Parts/tools | Top-20 VIN lawful subscriptions and shallow inventory. | — |
| Scale rule | Second node only after two consecutive gated quarters. | — |
- Recommendation
- Two-bay Yerevan partner pilot; no standalone lease.
- Why
- —
- Recommendation
- No exclusivity until 12 months of verified demand/compliance.
- Why
- —
- Recommendation
- One HV lead plus one technician; partner reception/collection.
- Why
- —
- Recommendation
- Separate pure BEV, series-hybrid and parallel-hybrid SOPs.
- Why
- —
- Recommendation
- Menu-priced evidence products; fleet SLA after proof.
- Why
- —
- Recommendation
- Top-20 VIN lawful subscriptions and shallow inventory.
- Why
- —
- Recommendation
- Second node only after two consecutive gated quarters.
- Why
- —
Pilot economics
All AMD values are nominal, VAT-exclusive, unlevered and assumption-led.
Yerevan partner-pilot annual EBITDA scenarios
Nominal AMD, VAT-exclusive, unlevered and assumption-led.
Annual shared-bay economics (AMD)
| Scenario | Jobs | ARO ALL | Revenue ALL | Gross Margin Pct | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL | Payback Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 180 | 35,000 | 6,300,000 | 55 | 3,465,000 | 4,000,000 | -535,000 | — |
- Jobs
- 180
- ARO ALL
- 35,000
- Revenue ALL
- 6,300,000
- Gross Margin Pct
- 55
- Gross Profit ALL
- 3,465,000
- Opex ALL
- 4,000,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -535,000
- Payback Years
- —
90-day pilot economics (AMD)
| Scenario | Jobs 90d | Revenue ALL | Gross Profit ALL | Opex ALL | Ebitda ALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cautious | 45 | 1,575,000 | 866,250 | 1,000,000 | -133,750 |
- Jobs 90d
- 45
- Revenue ALL
- 1,575,000
- Gross Profit ALL
- 866,250
- Opex ALL
- 1,000,000
- Ebitda ALL
- -133,750
Risks Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Risks and mitigations
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Administrative category mixes BEV and series hybrid | — | — | Acquire VIN/powertrain extract; separate SOP, tools, parts and TAM. |
| Quota/VAT/code change | — | — | SRC/EAEU written transaction advice; no incentive in pilot revenue. |
| Chinese-brand long tail / grey importers | — | — | Top-20 VIN whitelist, deposits, tool trials and referral boundary. |
| OEM warranty/security restrictions | — | — | No warranty/recall claim; lawful access and customer consent. |
| HV/fire/battery event | — | — | No pack work; quarantine/no-touch protocol, drill and insurer sign-off. |
| Waste/EPR uncertainty | — | — | Current licence check, written classification and no unapproved custody. |
| Charging overstatement / uneven regions | — | — | Field-audit connector, power, payment, access and uptime. |
| Young fleet suppresses heavy repair | — | — | Lead evidence, tyres, charging, 12V, thermal and fleet uptime. |
| Currency/import volatility | — | — | AMD pricing, deposits, short quote validity and capex tranches. |
| Paid demand below model | — | — | Bookings and fleet LOI before capex; 90-day stop rule. |
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- Acquire VIN/powertrain extract; separate SOP, tools, parts and TAM.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- SRC/EAEU written transaction advice; no incentive in pilot revenue.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- Top-20 VIN whitelist, deposits, tool trials and referral boundary.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- No warranty/recall claim; lawful access and customer consent.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- No pack work; quarantine/no-touch protocol, drill and insurer sign-off.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- Current licence check, written classification and no unapproved custody.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- Field-audit connector, power, payment, access and uptime.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- Lead evidence, tyres, charging, 12V, thermal and fleet uptime.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- AMD pricing, deposits, short quote validity and capex tranches.
- Likelihood
- —
- Impact
- —
- Mitigation
- Bookings and fleet LOI before capex; 90-day stop rule.
Plan Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
90-day entry plan
| Days | Workstream | Deliverable |
|---|---|---|
| 0–15 | Evidence | Anonymised VIN/powertrain/year/district extract, top-20 VINs, 50 owner and 12 fleet interviews. |
- Workstream
- Evidence
- Deliverable
- Anonymised VIN/powertrain/year/district extract, top-20 VINs, 50 owner and 12 fleet interviews.
Explicit go/no-go gates
Every gate is open. Failure narrows, extends or stops the pilot; it never creates automatic franchise rights.
Go / no-go gates
| Gate | Threshold | Status | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| G1 denominator | Verified national/Yerevan VIN extract split into pure BEV, series hybrid and parallel hybrid; ≥7,500 eligible Yerevan vehicles | Open | No capex until clear. |
- Threshold
- Verified national/Yerevan VIN extract split into pure BEV, series hybrid and parallel hybrid; ≥7,500 eligible Yerevan vehicles
- Status
- Open
- Decision
- No capex until clear.
Methodology and source register
Quantitative claims are linked; uncertainty and conflicting definitions are explicit.
Methodology
| Step | Method |
|---|---|
| 1. Source | Prioritise MIA, SRC, ministries, Yerevan, EEC, ARLIS and standards bodies; label relays. |
| 2. Reconcile | Separate administrative electric stock, pure BEV, series/parallel hybrid, imports, registrations, quotas and charging measures. |
| 3. Size | Apply explicit passenger/light, active, events, concentration, reach and ARO assumptions to the stock anchor. |
| 4. Stress | Run cautious/base/high five-year and operating scenarios; compare but do not blend policy targets. |
| 5. Gate | Hold executable SOM at zero until powertrain/VIN, approvals, tooling, bookings and safety evidence exist. |
| 6. Validate | Reparse JSON; reconcile formulas; resolve citations; scan template residue and brand palette. |
- Method
- Prioritise MIA, SRC, ministries, Yerevan, EEC, ARLIS and standards bodies; label relays.
- Method
- Separate administrative electric stock, pure BEV, series/parallel hybrid, imports, registrations, quotas and charging measures.
- Method
- Apply explicit passenger/light, active, events, concentration, reach and ARO assumptions to the stock anchor.
- Method
- Run cautious/base/high five-year and operating scenarios; compare but do not blend policy targets.
- Method
- Hold executable SOM at zero until powertrain/VIN, approvals, tooling, bookings and safety evidence exist.
- Method
- Reparse JSON; reconcile formulas; resolve citations; scan template residue and brand palette.
Source Register Intro
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Closing
See the linked dataset, calculations and source register for evidence, assumptions and open decisions.
Source register
49 primary and derived sources
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Source register
49 primary and derived sources
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