Bosnia and Herzegovina.

• Conditional go only for a reversible Sarajevo shared-bay pilot. The official 2025 stock anchor is 989 electric vehicles across all road classes—just 0.073% of 1,355,856 road vehicles. A standalone centre or territory franchise is a no-go today. [bihamk_2025_pdf]
• The model is deliberately conservative. Because the register does not publish electric vehicles by class, EVS applies the national 84.22% passenger-car share as a proxy and excludes all 9,881 mixed hybrid vehicles. This yields an 816-vehicle national active pool and only 61 annual Sarajevo Canton independent-reach SAM jobs.
• Launch around evidence, not repair breadth. Start with supported-VIN diagnostics, battery-health/pre-purchase reports, charging, 12V, HVAC, tyres, brakes and fleet collection. Hold pack opening, battery removal/custody, warranty, recall and secure-software work.
• Scale is gated. Require a verified local VIN denominator, one fleet LOI, 15 paid bookings, 12 paid jobs in 90 days, BAM350 ARO, 62% gross margin, positive pilot EBITDA and complete entity/canton/municipal approvals.

Authorise up to BAM8,000 of reversible incremental capex for diligence and a 90-day shared-bay pilot only after pre-launch gates clear. Do not sign a standalone lease, grant territory exclusivity or advertise traction-battery repair. The base case delivers 48 jobs, BAM16,800 revenue, BAM2,416 EBITDA and 3.31-year simple payback; these are EVS assumptions, not market facts.

BIHAMK records 989 electric vehicles across all road classes at end-2025, up 29.62% from 763 in 2024. Scope is all-road rather than passenger-only, so the growth comparison is valid only for 2024–2025. The 2022 and 2023 observations are narrower passenger-car counts and are shown without a false growth bridge. Imports and first registrations remain flows. [bihamk_2025_pdf] [bihamk_2024_pdf] [bhas_2023] [iddeea_2022]

The decisive limitation is not arithmetic; it is classification. The official table groups petrol/electric and diesel/electric vehicles without identifying plug-in capability. EVS excludes those 9,881 vehicles, labels the 989-stock anchor as all-road, and applies passenger eligibility only as an assumption. Charger locations, charging points, connectors and planned sites remain separate grains.

End-2030 scenarios compound the 2025 all-road electric stock for five years. The base rate of 28% is near—but below—the latest 29.62% growth; cautious and high cases test adoption, infrastructure and model-availability sensitivity. Even the high case reaches only 5,319 vehicles, supporting modular capacity rather than a fixed network.

A commercial directory lists 88 stations and 26 in Sarajevo, while official/operator sources describe public AC locations, a 50 kW motorway charger, a 75 kW Tuzla charger and six points co-financed in Tuzla Canton. These measures are not additive. Uptime, access, connector count and tariff require site-by-site verification. [electromaps] [epbih_charge] [moon_tuzla] [tk_fast]

The average registered road vehicle is 17 years old. Euro 5 and Euro 6 vehicles represent 43.30% of all vehicles. This supports adjacent chassis, tyre, brake, HVAC and diagnostics demand in a shared facility, but does not show the age or service frequency of the EV subset. [bihamk_2025_pdf]

EVS starts with 989 all-road electric vehicles, applies the passenger-car share (84.22%) and a 98% active factor, then models 1.15 annual service events and BAM350 ARO. SAM applies Sarajevo Canton passenger-car concentration (14.39%) and 45% independent reach. Executable SOM is zero until gates clear.

The initial proposition is evidence and uptime: supported-VIN health reports, pre-purchase checks, charging/12V/HVAC/chassis care and collection. Warranty, recall, security coding and pack faults stay with authorised or specialist routes.

BIHAMK publishes all-powertrain brand shares, not EV shares. VAG has the strongest national service footprint; MG, Hyundai, Kia and BYD add EV/PHEV availability. EVS must build a VIN/task whitelist from actual bookings before buying subscriptions or special tools. [bihamk_brand] [porsche_network] [mg_imprint] [hyundai_bih] [kia_remex] [byd_bih]

Porsche BH reports more than 40 partners and national parts/tool logistics. Other importers and authorised services protect their brands. EVS should compete on independent evidence, convenience and fleet uptime while preserving referral boundaries—not on warranty substitution. [porsche_network] [porsche_aftermarket]

Sarajevo Canton has 164,363 passenger cars, 14.39% of the national passenger-car parc, plus the densest directory-listed charging and OEM/fleet ecosystem. This numerator excludes East Sarajevo in Republika Srpska, so it is a conservative administrative boundary. Tuzla, Banja Luka, Mostar and Zenica/Doboj should be partner coverage only.

The Council of Ministers extended zero duty for qualifying new BEVs and a 5% hybrid rate through 2026. No current national cash purchase grant was verified. Local charger co-financing and business aid are programme-specific; the base case includes no award. [vm_customs_2026] [tk_incentive]

VAT is 17% and corporate income tax is 10% across FBiH, RS and Brčko, but payroll, registration, incentives and inspections differ. Choose the pilot jurisdiction before contracting staff or a site; obtain written transaction and entity advice. [uino_vat] [fipa_taxes] [fipa_laws]

Bosnia and Herzegovina has state, entity, district, canton and municipal layers. The launch file must identify the competent body for company activity, site use, electricity, fire, OSH, waste and inspection. Vehicle repair does not confer homologation or roadworthiness authority. [homologation_about] [homologation_rules]

Generic mechanic experience is not high-voltage authorisation. Named roles, safe isolation, live-dead-live proving, rescue drills, calibrated tools, software access and documented referral limits are mandatory. No damaged EV enters custody before written fire and insurer acceptance.

FBiH publishes a waste-battery rule and controlled cross-border route, while RS/Brčko and site-specific requirements need separate confirmation. Phase 1 excludes pack opening, removal, storage and damaged-battery custody. Use an authorised receiver/carrier and ADR/Basel route only after written acceptance. [fmoit_batteries] [fmoit_crossborder] [unece_adr] [basel]

The launch portfolio concentrates on non-invasive, repeatable work with clear reports and referral boundaries. This creates trust while demand, training, tools, insurer appetite and lawful waste routes mature.

Use one Sarajevo shared bay, central quality controls and collection/referral coverage. A local legal entity or tightly controlled operating partner must hold permits, staff and insurance. Do not award exclusivity until two consecutive quarters clear the scale gate.

The base case uses 48 annual jobs—below the 61-job SAM—at BAM350 ARO and 62% gross margin. BAM8,000 annual incremental opex produces BAM2,416 EBITDA and 3.31-year simple payback on BAM8,000 capex. No tax, finance, depreciation, grant, owner salary or working-capital benefit is assumed.

The official stock is tiny and not split by class; demand has not been observed; local approvals depend on jurisdiction. The mitigations are a VIN extract, paid bookings, a shared bay, written authority matrix, narrow scope and explicit stop rules.

The plan sequences denominator validation, legal mapping, paid demand, site/insurer acceptance, competency and tooling before service delivery. The board reviews a small set of operational thresholds at day 90.

No gate is assumed satisfied by desk research. Failure of the denominator, demand, compliance, safety, battery or economics gate stops or narrows the pilot; it does not trigger a forecast revision to justify continuation.

Primary national stock controls the denominator. Narrower historical points are scope-labelled. Facts, flows, directory observations, EVS assumptions and calculations remain separate. Formulas are embedded and independently recomputed by the validator.

The artifact embeds a complete linked source audit with publisher, publication date when available, access date and scope note. Dynamic pages and commercial directories are flagged; no material quantitative claim relies on an invented statistic.

CONDITIONAL GO for a gated Sarajevo shared-bay pilot after every pre-launch gate clears. NO-GO for a standalone centre or territory franchise now. HOLD all pack-level and damaged-battery custody work.