Uzbekistan

Open two controlled bays inside a compliant Tashkent partner site for 90 days. Sell paid battery-health/pre-purchase evidence, charging/thermal/12V diagnosis, wear, insurer collision HV isolation and fleet uptime. Require 900 paid orders, 52% gross margin, positive EBITDA, eight counterparties, 180 contracted monthly jobs, 80% top-30 VIN coverage and complete compliance before a permanent site [evs_model].

Registered EV stock reached 109,200 at 1 April 2026 [stock_apr_2026]. Jan–Sep 2025 customs recorded 40,345 EV imports, 39,798 from China [imports_9m_ev]. BYD produced 20,200 units in 2025, but the official brand total does not split BEV from hybrid [prod_2025]. A Ministry-reported secondary series counted 1,399 charging stations at 1 May 2025 [charging_1400].

The model uses only 109,200 registered EVs as the hard service denominator. Official releases do not publish a BEV/PHEV or passenger/non-passenger split, so the pilot must obtain an administrative extract. Customs imports are flows, BYD production/sales mix BEV and DM-i/hybrid, and charging stations may differ from connectors or verified operating units; none is added to stock. Conventional HEVs remain outside scope.

Official registered-EV stock rose from 65,200 at 1 April 2025 [stock_apr_2025], to 73,600 at 1 July [stock_jul_2025], 86,100 at 1 October [stock_oct_2025], and 109,200 at 1 April 2026 [stock_apr_2026]. That is 67.5% year-on-year growth. The sequence supports momentum but does not resolve inactive vehicles, model age or BEV/PHEV definitions.

Uzbekistan does not publish a clean current BEV/PHEV sales series in the located sources. Customs counted 14,356 EV imports in H1 2025 [imports_h1_2025] and 40,345 in Jan–Sep [imports_9m_ev]. BYD official-dealer sales reached 16,846 in Jan–Sep, but mix BEV and PHEV [dealer_sales_9m]. Domestic BYD production was 20,200 in 2025 [prod_2025]. These flows overlap and are not summed.

Applying EVS annual sensitivities of 18%, 30% and 42% for 4.75 years from the 1 April 2026 registered stock yields 239,697, 379,711 and 577,554 vehicles at end-2030 [evs_model]. These are not official forecasts. Recent 67.5% growth and domestic industrialization support upside; recycling fees, OEM capture, charger quality and definition risk support caution.

A Ministry-reported secondary series counted 1,399 stations at 1 May 2025, including 820 in Tashkent city and 154 in Tashkent region [charging_1400]. A December 2024 inspection reported only 103 stations fully met technical requirements [charging_quality]. Resolution 732 requires 5% charger-ready parking at specified new developments [charging_rule]. A 4,000-station end-2026 figure is a draft target, not operating infrastructure [charging_draft]. GB/T and CCS2 coexist [yashil_energy].

No authoritative public EV-age distribution was located. The large 2025 import flow and rapid stock growth imply a young cohort, but that is an inference—not a statistic. The 4.39 million passenger cars owned by individuals at 1 October 2025 are not a compatible denominator [parc_oct_2025]. Obtain model-year/VIN data. Near-term independent demand should centre on grey-import inspection, charging/thermal faults, wear, collision evidence and fleet uptime.

China supplied 98.6% of Jan–Sep 2025 EV imports [imports_9m_ev], while BYD says grey imports do not receive official warranty service [byd_gray]. That creates a multi-brand diagnostic niche. Tashkent also has a material electric-bus programme, including a reported 304 buses at one point [electric_buses_ministry], but heavy-bus revenue is excluded until separate tools, premises, OEM access and contracts exist.

From 109,200 registered EVs, EVS assumes 55% annual paid-service incidence and UZS2,400,000 addressable spend: UZS144,144,000,000 TAM. Applying 65% independent eligibility produces UZS93,693,600,000; 70% single-hub reach yields UZS65,585,520,000 SAM. Base 90-day SOM is UZS1,440,000,000 from 900 orders, 2.20% of annual SAM [evs_model].

Included: registered EVs and EVS-addressable diagnostic/maintenance spend. Excluded: conventional HEVs, inactive/exported stock, charger-energy sales, vehicle sales, inaccessible OEM warranty work, heavy buses and unsupported pack/software jobs. PHEV engine work is excluded until combustion/HV competence is separately approved. The registry extract must ultimately isolate active passenger BEV/PHEV stock.

Grey-import and independent owners rank first; insurers/bodyshops/recovery second; taxi, delivery and corporate fleets third; official and out-of-warranty BYD owners fourth. Municipal electric buses are a separate later vertical. The pilot should sell fixed-price evidence and contracted uptime, not rely on walk-ins or count public fleet announcements as demand.

BYD’s official service portfolio lists Seagull, e2, Yuan Up, Song Plus EV and several DM-i models [bydzone]. Secondary market evidence highlights Yuan Up growth [sales_2025]. China supplied 39,798 of 40,345 EV imports in Jan–Sep 2025 [imports_9m_ev]. The top-30 VIN matrix must distinguish BEV from DM-i/PHEV, official from grey import, and safe diagnostic from unsupported coding/repair.

BYD’s official network combines local factory, warranty, specialised scanners and insulated tools [bydzone]; the company reported 18 official showrooms/service centres in 2024 [byd_gray]. Tashkent also has independent Chinese-car specialists and mobile/general electrical services [independent_byd] [asko] [avtoelectrik]. EVS must differentiate through multi-brand safety, calibrated evidence, insurer custody and fleet SLAs—not generic repair.

Tashkent city is decisive with 79,851 EVs, 73.1% of national stock; adding Tashkent region’s 8,194 reaches 80.6% [stock_apr_2026]. Pilot a reversible east/south industrial site only after competitor, access and fire/quarantine audits. Samarkand (4,525) is the first non-capital collection point, followed by Khorezm (3,042), Kashkadarya (2,611) and Fergana (2,231) [stock_apr_2026].

The binding consumer-side measure is a cost: from 1 May 2025 the EV recycling fee is 120 BCU for vehicles up to three years and 210 BCU for older vehicles [recycling_yuz]. Use BCU multiples because nominal UZS changes. A 12% VAT rate is official [vat]. No cash EV purchase grant is assumed. Current customs, registration, road-tax and parking treatment require a dated written memo before marketing.

Digital reforms support one-stop business launch from 1 January 2026 [business_registration]. Jizzakh FEZ and domestic-EV relief demonstrate industrial policy, but a Tashkent repair centre is not assumed eligible [byd_factory] [recycling_interfax]. Charging-equipment relief may apply to listed charger components in 2026–2027, not automatically to workshop tools [charger_customs]. Pilot economics book no grant, tax holiday or customs relief.

The model is nominal UZS before corporate income tax, VAT and financing. Obtain a dated memo on entity/branch form, 12% VAT, corporate and turnover tax eligibility, payroll/social charges, withholding, transfer pricing, imported tools/parts, related-party fees and recycling/customs treatment [vat]. Quote imported parts briefly and take deposits. No incentive is included in the economics.

The Labour Code and labour-protection framework require compliant employment, risk controls, training, PPE and safe workplaces [labour_code] [labour_protection]. EVS should define authorised, instructed and prohibited HV roles; document rescue, lifting and thermal-incident drills; verify mandatory medical/competence/insurance obligations; and prevent untrained staff from energised or damaged vehicles.

The 2026 digital launch route simplifies registration, not technical permission [business_registration]. Before lease, obtain written applicability for vehicle repair, electrical work, fire approval, signage, lifts, pressure/refrigerant equipment, waste storage/transfer and any conformity obligations through the relevant authorities [technical_regulator]. A partner agreement must give EVS operational control, audit/data rights and immediate stop-work authority.

No standalone public automotive-HV technician licence was located; absence is not permission. Obtain written labour, technical-regulation, electrical and fire applicability. Apply identify–isolate–lock–prove-dead, CAT-rated tools/PPE, key custody, two-person rescue for intrusive work, signage, thermal monitoring and model-specific limits. No live work or pack opening during the pilot [technical_regulator] [labour_protection].

The Waste Law requires a lawful classification, storage, transport and disposal route [waste_law]. The recycling fee was intended partly to support battery disposal infrastructure [recycling_yuz], but that does not prove an available operator. Contract an authorised chain, record custody and use fire-approved off-site quarantine before accepting damaged packs. No pack opening or module repair at launch.

No workshop-specific EV heat-pump/refrigerant credential was verified. Launch with non-invasive temperature, pressure-signal and leak-indication diagnosis. Opening a circuit requires written environmental/OSH applicability, trained staff, recovery equipment, calibration, cylinder controls and waste route [env_register]. Uzbekistan’s hot summers make thermal diagnosis valuable but do not relax safeguards.

Consumer law requires safe, quality services, clear information, warranty/remedy handling and a complaints route [consumer_law]. VIN, identity, images, telematics and diagnostic logs are personal/security-sensitive [personal_data_law]. March 2026 amendments narrowed mandatory localization but imposed safeguards for overseas processing [personal_data_2026]. Use bilingual consent, purpose limits, access controls, retention and breach procedures.

Begin company-controlled inside a compliant partner bay; do not sub-franchise. The agreement must govern brand/IP, customer ownership, data roles, pricing, QA audit, parts, safety authority, incident reporting, insurance, quarantine and termination. A permanent Tashkent hub follows only after downside payback passes. Franchise requires 12 audited months, positive economics and zero serious safety events.

Launch battery-health/pre-purchase evidence, charging/thermal/12V diagnosis, brakes/tyres/suspension, collision HV isolation, insurer reports, fleet uptime and lawful connectivity triage. Add collection/night service after contracts. Hold pack opening/module repair, intrusive ADAS calibration and refrigerant-circuit work until OEM data, tools, competence, insurance, fire, environmental and waste approvals pass.

Use two controlled bays, VIN pre-screen, Uzbek/Russian customer authorisation, before/after evidence, calibrated tools, key/parts custody and EVS regional escalation. Keep only fast-moving wear and 12V parts; imported components require deposits. Use approved off-site quarantine. Unsupported VINs receive inspection-only scope or refusal. Track safety, comeback, cycle time, utilisation, AOV and margin daily.

Cautious/base/high 90-day cases are 450/900/1,400 orders and UZS405m/UZS1.44bn/UZS3.36bn revenue. EBITDA is -UZS177.75m/+UZS98.8m/+UZS848.8m. Base break-even is 782 orders [evs_model]. No permanent-site capex, tax preference, battery-remanufacturing revenue, heavy-bus revenue or charger-energy income is assumed. Downside permanent-hub payback must be at most 24 months.

The main risks are opaque BEV/PHEV/model/age definitions, young warranty capture, China-market software/parts fragmentation, policy and currency volatility, battery fire/waste liability, charging quality mistaken for workshop demand, OEM/informal competition and premises/licensing gaps. Controls are an administrative VIN extract, gated platform matrix, evidence-led B2B focus, low inventory, approved quarantine/handlers and written pre-lease approvals.

Days 0–25 obtain registry, counsel, tax and site routes. Days 10–40 secure eight counterparties and the top-30 VIN matrix. Days 25–45 train, drill and commission two controlled bays. Days 30–75 run paid jobs; investment approval requires 900. Days 50–85 convert 180 contracted monthly jobs. Day 90 chooses permanent hub, continued partner validation or defer.

Continue only with at least 100,000 reconciled active passenger plug-ins, 900 paid orders, 52% gross margin, positive EBITDA, below 3% comeback, zero serious HV/fire events, eight counterparties, 180 contracted monthly jobs, 80% top-30 VIN coverage and complete entity/site/labour/electrical/fire/waste/consumer/data files. Permanent hub requires at most 24-month downside payback; franchise requires 12 audited months [evs_model].

What share of 109,200 vehicles is active passenger BEV versus PHEV? Which 30 VIN/platforms and ages dominate Tashkent? Which official warranties exclude grey imports? What written permits govern HV, lifts, refrigerants, damaged packs and waste custody? Which handlers and quarantine sites accept traction batteries? What paid monthly volumes will insurers, fleets, importers and bodyshops contract at full price?

Primary statistics, government, laws and official portals were preferred. Secondary sources were used where ministry/dealer facts lacked accessible primary pages and are labelled. Stock, imports, production, dealer sales, buses and chargers were kept as distinct definitions. Every model output traces to a sourced stock fact and explicit EVS assumptions. Figures are nominal UZS; no tax/incentive is booked.

Critical gaps are the BEV/PHEV/passenger split, inactive/exported stock, EV age/model/VIN distribution, audited charger uptime/connectors, current customs treatment, independent workshop capacity and traction-battery handler map. Secondary translations may use “EV” for broader new-energy vehicles. Draft targets are not law. The report supports a reversible pilot, not an unconditional capital commitment.

The package includes a linked source registry with publisher, publication date where available, access date, URL, notes and role. Quantitative material claims cite source IDs inline. Commercial sites evidence competition/capability only; their claims are not independently audited. EVS assumptions use [evs_model].

Go only to a two-bay, 90-day company-controlled Tashkent pilot. The market is large and concentrated, but a permanent hub is premature until the registry, platform, paid-demand, compliance and safety gates pass. The attractive wedge is independent multi-brand evidence for grey imports, insurers and fleets—not speculative pack rebuilding or an immediate franchise rollout.